Sprint Races – Don’t fear wide barriers
Caulfield sprint races involved a straight run to the home turn, which isn’t particularly wide or long. It’s one of the fairer courses in Australian racing.
Despite that, the market still overreacts to the perceived disadvantage of wide barrier draws.
The table below shows the results of genuine chances up to $10 SP in sprint races (1000m to 1200m) at Caulfield, since January 2005.
The first thing you might notice is that barriers have been repeated i.e. 1 to 3 in the first row, then 3 to 5, then 5 to 7 etc. This is a smoothing technique to reduce the influence of variance, which can create illogical anomalies in results between adjacent barriers.
Focusing on the results themselves, you may be shocked to discover that wide drawn runners in Caulfield sprints actually win more often than inside drawn runners!
More importantly, the betting returns on wide drawn horses are significantly better. If you like a horse that is drawn wide in the Caulfield sprint race, then bet with confidence