RaceCafe..#1...Tipsters Thread.... Share Your Fancies For Fun...Lets See Who The Best Tipsters Here Are.

Leggy

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Everything posted by Leggy

  1. "27 December 2023 was within the four-day withholding period for Karman Line’s Raceday." "On 1 January 2024 Karman Line won Race 7" FFS ... someone please send Messrs Nettleton and Smith a calendar.
  2. That's all been a legal requirement since the Employment Contracts Act 2000. Significant change maybe, but over two decades ago. I certainly had them back then when I had paid employees.
  3. I was simply asking what you saw as dramatic changes. Not sure what you mean by "the same for staff"? An employment agreement?
  4. Yes. That's correct. They card them as BM because horses that get to above 65 rating via only one win + say placings in higher grade races are eligible. Probably not very common. 7.2.2 Rating 65 Benchmark These races are open to all horses rated 65 and below. Entry for horses rated above 65 is restricted to those with one win or less. This Rating band may generally include one win horses, however, could also include horses with two or more wins that have subsequently deteriorated in form. Placed horses with a rating of 65 will remain in this grade. Preference in the order of entry will be given to flat winners over Maidens.
  5. Quite right. I'm behind the times. So, fair point WD.
  6. I'm not sure how you get 67 into a 65. Are there BM65s again?
  7. Please don't feel you have to reply, but FYI it was Brett Scelley a decade ago who told me that he needed at least an 8-9kg spread to effectively handicap within the rating bands. That was at a meeting in Petone because NZTR had asked me to analyse the impact of the handicapping changes that had occurred following the Mark Webbey review a couple of years earlier, which we did pro bono. What we found then pretty much concurred with his thinking. This from the summary of that report. "The analysis clearly shows both that higher weighted horses are significantly outperforming lower weighted ones, and that females are significantly out performing males." My current data says that the situation has worsened if anything. Not a great way to create competitive racing that will build wagering revenue.
  8. No. I thought you weren't replying to me any more?
  9. The sad thing is that NZTR on one hand go on and on about declining starter numbers and declining foal crops and seem to think that increasing stakes from any pot of gold they can find is the answer, when that strategy has failed to make any difference for decades now. Yet, they show no inclination to fix the handicapping system and give the handicappers a tool to work with that would keep horses in work earning more wagering revenue etc.
  10. Thanks for your confidence Nerula but I agree with nomates. Not that I don't think that weight differential can make a difference, but that the amount that handicappers have to play with here is insignificant and has no chance of creating proper handicaps. A very good former NZTR senior handicapper told me the same thing, but then moved on to greener pastures.
  11. Probably best to stay there Liz. Nowhere near enough available data to do that. Not sure why you would want to know anyway. Some on here seem to think I think barrier draws are irrelevant even though I don't and never said that.
  12. I don't really bother much. Certainly wouldn't use a statistic like strike rate. I don't really use statistics.
  13. No. For me whether I would back either totally depends on my assessment of their chance of winning cf. the available price. I don't consider either the draw or the jockey in that assessment.
  14. Might not be hard for you, but I'm interested in learning more about how to do that. I thought that's what these forums were about.
  15. https://twitter.com/TeAkauRacing/status/1766308732177395713
  16. What do you mean by "overall class of the race" Memphis? And how do you assess jockeys and adjust your pricing accordingly?
  17. Gleeson said regular rider Opie Bosson would have no trouble overcoming the barrier on the nine-time Group 1 winner. "We'd probably have liked it less had she drawn inside actually," Gleeson said