RaceCafe..#1...Tipsters Thread.... Share Your Fancies For Fun...Lets See Who The Best Tipsters Here Are.

stodge

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  1. The best card of the Meydan Carnival so far has just concluded in Dubai. Two Group 1 races - the first was the opening round of the Al Maktoum Challenge over the World Cup distance of 2000m on the Dirt. On paper this looked a weak race for the grade but the money came for the ex-Russian KABIRKHAN who went off 5/6 in Britain with the top rated horse, CLAPTON, at 4s: KABIRKHAN was just too good for these and bolted up by just under five lengths. How good is he - well, time will tell. He's the best ex-Russian galloper I've ever seen though that's not saying too much. I presume he'll move on to the next round on the way to a World Cup tilt. How he'll fare against the American speedballs is hard to know. A bunch for the minor money with FRANZ STRAUSS waltzing home to play second fiddle and edging out CLAPTON who missed out on the cream and finished third. The turf Group 1 was the Jebel Hatta over 1800m on the grass. As usual, Godolphin had a strong time with Charlie Appleby's MEASURED TIME backed against Saeed Bin Suroor's Group 1 classic winning filly, MAWJ. Charlie Appleby plotted MAWJ's downfall by testing her stamina. HIGHLAND AVENUE went like a scalded cat but MEASURED TIME always had MAWJ well and when she couldn't quicken Buick sent the favourite on and the result was never in doubt. OTTOMAN FLEET ,made it a 1-2 for Appleby with our old mate SAN DONATO running a decent race in third. The winner looks a decent horse and you'd think the Dubai Turf might be the race though there are other options including the Sheema Classic albeit over 600m further. Appleby had a tremendous day saddling four winners including MYSTERIOUS NIGHT who continued his upward trajectory in the Al Fahidi Fort. I thought DANYAH ran a fine race in third giving the winner 4 lbs. STAR OF MYSTERY looked the one in the Blue Point Sprint. She's all speed and won by nearly two lengths - to be fair, she was getting all the weight and the allowances this day and whether the Al Quoz will work for her or not is uncertain but she's a quick filly.
  2. At Doncaster, the ground has improved to Good, Good to Soft in places. Just five stand in the Rossington Main and Nicky Henderson has left in JERIKO DU REPONET who went in to a lot of notebooks after a taking win at Newbury. He's 1/2 and will love the quicker ground. LUMP SUM and FIERCELY PROUD have each won two races in the West Country but nothing of the level of the favourite. Six go in the Yorkshire Rose Mares Hurdle and Willie Mullins has entered both ASHROE DIAMOND and GALA MARCEAU. The latter was beaten four times by LOSSIEMOUTH last season but I always rated her and I think she could be good enough to beat her stable companion who was third in the Hatton's Grace and for whom I'm not sure the drop back in trip on this better ground will be ideal. The River Don over 4850m is probably the most open of all the graded races. WELCOM TO CARTRIES is favourite and I thought he did it really well at Ascot. He's very lightly raced and you could argue DESTROYTHEEVIDENCE has stronger credentials having won a simi;ar race to this at Cheltenham last time. At a price, BIG FISH may be a little each way value at 20s. She looked very good earlier in the seaon on ground like this and got bogged down on much softer turf last time.
  3. We've got the final declarations through for Saturday and on this contribution I'll concentrate on Cheltenham. The ground remains Good to Soft, Soft in places. Just five go in the Grade 1 Clarence House Chase over 3250m. JONBON is 1/4 and while that's no one's bet, he's the obvious contender. The ground will be perfect and he has 43 lengths in hand of EDITEUR DU GITE on Schloer form. It'll be closer this time and I expect NUBE NEGRA, who ran better at Kempton, to be in the frame but JONBON can't be opposed. Seven go in the Triumph Trial Juvenile Hurdle and on paper it looks a match between the proven talent of BURDETT ROAD and the potential of SIR GINO. None of the others have won a hurdle. I'm slightly in favour of the proven talent as SIR GINO had a canter round at Kempton but he could be anything. Six go in the Cotswold Chase over the Gold Cup course and distance. It may be the more significant Gold Cup trials were run at Lingfield last weekend with L'HOMME PRESSE winning the Fleur de Lys and at Leopardstown next weekend. ROYALE PAGAILLE won the Betfair at Haydock but I'm not sure whether the ground will be deep enough. STAY AWAY FAY has bene supported in the betting but he's a novice against proven staying chasers and were he to win this his connections would have a real dilemma. CAPODANNO rulns for Willie Mullins and he was 23 lngths behind GALOPIN DES CHAMPS in the Savils - if he gets anywhere near these, the home challenge will be in big trouble. I don't have a strong view in all honesty - THE REAL WHACKER was well held at Kempton but he has run well at Cheltenham and might be worth an interest. Just five go in the Unibet Hurdle for the dubious honour, one might argue, of being favourite to finish third in the Champion Hurdle. RUBAUD is a nice horse but he wants a sharper track and quicker ground. LOSSIEMOUTH won last year's Triumph but it's a big ask for the second season hurdlers in open company. LOVE ENVOI was well held in the Fighting Fifth but should enjoy this better ground. The Cleeve Hurdle is the equivalent of one of those veterans chases that are so popular up here. You have two 12-y-o in PAISLEY PARK and CHAMP and the 11-y-o DASHEL DRASHER, all of whom know every blade of grass at Prestbury Park. Of them, I think DASHEL DRASHER might be the one this time but they all face the much younger STRONG LEADER - connections have wasted little time putting him up in trip and I suspect they think there will be plenty of improvement. Selections: 12.05: BURDETT ROAD 1.50: THE REAL WHACKER 2.25: JONBON 3.00: LOVE ENVOI 3.35: STRONG LEADER
  4. A quick look back at last weekend's action. Last Friday, the Group 2 Cape Verdi at Meydan produced a thrilling finish and a 1-2 for Charlie Appleby and Godolphin. However, a big gamble on ENGLISH ROSE (backed down to 4/7) went awry as she couldn't quite get past SILVER LADY who probably knew a little more (her fifth outing versus the favourite's third run). I didn't think the second looked that genuine but this was the first time she'd had to battle as her previous wins were in much lower grade. SILVER LADY had shown a little promise in England last year but she hated soft ground at Newmarket last time. At Lingfield, the Sunday of the Winter Millions meeting went ahead but there was plenty of drama on the track. The Grade 2 Lightning saw a melee at the first as leader MATATA jumped badly left, knocking DJELO out of the race completely and badly hampering MASTER CHEWY whose confidence was badly shaken. Five became three but while MATATA jumped straighter, JPR ONE was always going better and in the end won well enough though he was idling in the final 100m and MATATA was, to her credit, was running on. MATATA looks a Grand Annual type while JPR ONE is 16s for the Arkle. ALLAHO won well at Thurles but picked up an injury and will miss Cheltenham.
  5. Even Royal Ascot moved from six to seven races a day this year and you'd better believe that needed approval at the very highest level. Gaps between races are an interesting subject. The 30 minute break between races up here is predicated on three afternoon races going off 10 minutes apart and is very much to keep the betting shops moving. Certain races like the Gold Cup and the National get more build up - there's a full hour between races at other meetings so everyone can watch the race. There's an ongoing debate here that flat races could be run every 20 minutes and jump races every 30 minutes so you could have a nine race card occupying the same time as a six race.
  6. We've also had the classifications and the World Racehorse Awards in the past day or two. CITY OF TROY is rated 125 and 5 lb clear of the rest in what is the weakest juvenile crop since 2004. It may well be the pandemic had something to do with that and the 2004 crop had the likes of SHAMARDAL and DUBAWI and they didn't turn out too badly. Trainer Roger Varian is a man whose viewpoint is always interesting - he has expressed "deep concern" over the direction of British racing in the wake of the World Racehorse Awards in London last evening. EQUINOX won Racehorse of the Year with a rating of 135 becoming the first Japanese horse to gain the accolade since JUST A WAY back in 2014 and the highest ever rated Japanese horse beating EL CONDOR PASA in 1999. It was a 1-2 for Japan with ACE IMPACT in joint second on 128 with the top British horse MOSTAHDAF. On 127 we have BIG ROCK and HUKUM. EQUINOX is standing at the Shadai Stallion Station in Hokkaido for a first season fee of USD 140,000 which isn't as high as I thought. Exacerbating Varian's concern is the fact both HUKUM and the second best UK horse, WESTOVER, have been sold to stand in Japan. If the likes of Shadwell and Juddmonte are happy to sell potential top stallions to Japan, will this lead to Coolmore and Godolphin following suit? If CITY OF TROY was the 3-y-o champion next season and won races like the 2000 Guineas, Derby and Arc would we see Japanese bloodstock interests try to make "the lads" an offer they might find hard to refuse?
  7. While enjoying my lunch in the Cafe in the Barking Road today, I started working on what would or should be the New Zealand World Racing Day Card - aimed at getting the best of the rest of the world to come to NZ: Race 1: $5 MIllion Sprint for 3-y-o and upwards 1000m Race 2: $10 Million Mile for 4-y-o and upwards 1600m Race 3: $10 Million Distaff 4-y-o Fillies and Mares 1800m Race 4: $15 Million New Zealand Trophy 3-y-o 1400m Race 5: $20 Million Southern Cross 3-y-o and upwards 2400m Race 6: $10 Million Southern Stayers Handicap 3-y-o and upwards 2800m Race 7: $20 Million New Zealand Champion Stakes 3-y-o and upwards 2000m As with Hong Kong, there could be a Jockeys Challenge three days before - New Zealand vs Australia vs RoW for the Sir Patrick Hogan Cup. The truth is if you offer enough money they will come.
  8. Away from the winter game, signs the global flat season is getting going for a new year. Friday sees a really good card at Meydan - the best of the season so far - with two Group 1 races. Round 1 of the Al Maktoum Challenge is on Dirt over 1950m. In truth, this is about a weak a Group 1 as you're going to see all year with the top rated horse, CLAPTON, running off 112. He was eleventh of twelve in the Breeders Cup Classic last November and if that's good enough to win this, it speaks volumes. Second in is KABIRAKHAN who raced in Russia last summer - I'm no expert on Russian racing - but was moved to Doug Watson's yard and bolted up in a 2000m handicap on his Meydan debut. The Jebel Hatta has been moved forward from Super Saturday in early March. The race is over 1900m on the grass and looks a real trial for the decent turf race at the Saudi Cup meeting in a month or so. MAWJ won the 1000 Guineas at Newmarket last May and after a Grade 1 win in the summer ran a blinder in the Breeders Cup MIle losing by a nose to MASTER OF THE SEAS. That's top notch form and she will take a lot of beating. She's joint top rated with SPIRIT DANCER who won the Group 2 Bahrain Trophy in November but he's never run in the very top grade. Godolphin have three other challengers and William Buick is on Al Rashadiya winner MEASURED TIME who looked very strong that day. Twelve go in the Group 2 Al Fahidi Fort over 1400m on the grass. DANIYAH is top rated having won the Al Quoz Sprint on World Cup day last March. He's taken to the new trip well but this is a sterner test and while MYSTERIOUS NIGHT has the plum draw and William Buick, he may not be the main danger. My eye is drawn to Maurice de Gheest winner KING GOLD who ran well when fifth in the Foret and will enjoy this better ground. With the Al Quoz now 1200m, the 1000m speedballs don't get as many opportunities but the Blue Point Sprint is a decent Group 2. My old friend EMARAATY ANA has claims but the 3-y-o get a lot of weight this early and the filly STAR OF MYSTERY gets 15 lbs. She won on her campaign opener and was second in the Duchess of Cambridge last season albeit she was a little disappointing in the Lowther. This spped test might be ideal. Plenty of top European jockeys will be at Meydan but one who won't is Ryan Moore who rides WARM HEART in the Group 1 Pegasus Turf Invitational over 1800m. She ran very well in both America and Hong Kong and while this may be her last race I'm sure advertising her prowess to the American bloodtaock industry won't fo her any harm. My one against her would be the lightly raced INTEGRATION. The feature is the £1.4 million Pegasus World Cup over 1800m on the Dirt. Frankie Dettori rides CRUPI for Todd Pletcher but he looks to have plenty on against the Breeders Cup Dirt Mile runner up NATIONAL TREASURE who was second to CODY'S WISH and you'll recall there wasn't a dry eye in the house after that race.
  9. A few spare minutes in my busy day gives me a chance to have an early look at what looks like a cracking afternoon's racing on Saturday. Cheltenham: Trials Day, as it is called, is the last meeting at Prestbury Park before the four day Festival in March. The ground is currently Good to Soft, Soft in places having recovered well apparently from last week's freeze. The sole Grade 1 is the rescheduled Clarence House Chase over 3200m. With EL FABIOLO waiting for the Dublin Festival, JONBON is 2/9 to score and it's hard to see what's going to stop him from the home camp. He's 8 lbs in front of EDITEUR DU GITE and while you could argue JONBON wasn't at his best on the Heavy ground at Sandown in the Tingle Creek, this better ground should be his optimum. EDITEUR DU GITE won the Desert Orchid at Kempton over Christmas beating NUBE NEGRA but that was Grade 2 form and he was 43 lengths behind JONBON in the Schloer over this course and distance back in November. It seems a lot to turn round that kind of deficit. The others are decent handicappers in their own right but they are 150 rated horses while JONBON is 170. The card opens with the Triumph Trial for the juvenile hurdlers over 3200m. BURDETT ROAD swerved the heavy ground at Chepstow but looked the best of the British here in November. He faces a serious challenge in SIR GINO from the Henderson yard, an ex French galloper who strolled home by 14 lengths on British debut. He could be anything. The Cotswold Chase is the Gold Cup Trial. Just six entries and ROYALE PAGAILLE relished the Heavy ground when winning the Betfair at Haydock. He's competed in Gold Cups without ever looking like winning but this is the next step down the ladder. THE REAL WHACKER won the Brown Advisory last March and was fourth in the King George. It may be next season will be his time while STAY AWAY FAY is an exciting runner. He's still a novice and won the Esher at Sandown last time - whether he can mix it in open company with these experienced types I don't know but this will be a good trial for the Brown Advisory if they keep him with the novices this year. The Unibet Hurdle over 3400m is the Champion Hurdle Trial. Mullins has entered both LOSSIEMOUTH and IMPAIRE ET PASSE but whether either or both will come here rather than to Leopardstown remains to be seen. LOVE ENVOI was second in the rescheduled Fighting Fifth at Sandown but that's not going to be good enough if the Irish show up. The Cleeve Hurdle over 4800m is the trial for the Stayers but it's a rematch of the Long Walk at Ascot from December with PAISLEY PARK (second), DASHEL DRASHER (third), CHAMP (fourth) and BOTOX HAS (sixth) all re-opposing. Doncaster: The ground here is Good to Soft, Good in places currently. No Grade 1 offering but plenty of northern trials (and possibly tribulations). Twelve have been entered for the rescheduled Rossington Main Novices Hurdle over 3250m. Nicky Henderson has entered JERICHO DE RAPONET and JANGO BOIE - both, as you might imagine, are French imports. The former is 7 lbs inferior to the latter on official numbers - JANGO BOIE won the Formby at Liverpool on Boxing Day and has to shoulder a 5 lb penalty while JERICHO DE RAPONET won a decent maiden at Newbury. Ten have been entered for the Mares Novices Hurdle over 3250m. ASHROE DIAMOND and GALA MARCEAU have been entered by Willie Mullins while Nicky Henderson has LUCCIA. A big entry of 19 contests the River Don for the staying novices over 4850m. JOHNNYWHO and SHANAGH BOB head the market but I'm interested in the Nicholls entry WELCOM TO CARTRIES who won well at Ascot before Christmas. I'll talk about these when we have the final decs on Thursday (UK).
  10. As expected, the milder weather came 24 hours too late for the Saturday turf cards with both Haydock and Taunton lost. The Rossington Main heads to Doncaster this weekend so both Cheltenham and Doncaster will have decent cards with a Grade 1 at the former and several Grade 2 races at both tracks. I'll put up some previews once we see the five day entries tomorrow. Lingfield staged the second day of the Winter Millions card yesterday (it moves to Windsor next year). JPR ONE won the Grade 2 Lightning and L'HOMME PRESSE was a good winner of the Fleur du Lys but I'll say more on those as the week goes on.
  11. Looking at it from the other side of the planet, I can see nods to several other jurisdictions. The idea of a Champions Day or Weekend to act as a climax to the season occurs in a number of other places - Ireland, Dubai, the UK, France and the USA to name but five. Whether it's a whole weekend or a single day matters less than the "narrative" spun around the event. That usually involves the really big event - the iconic race of the card and whether it's the Arc, the Dubai World Cup, Irish Champion, Champion or Breeders Cup Classic it becomes about the road to that race. "Slot" races where you can buy a place in the field happen in America but not widely in Europe - Coolmore for instance can't assume they'll have a runner in the Arc if they don't have one that's good enough to make the grade. If NZ is going to have such an invitational race would you not want to include for example Darley? The concept of "sales" races is also well known up here and they can go for very big money. They rely on the top races going through the top sales as yearlings and of course if you have powerful operations like Coolmore, Godolphin and Shadwell that doens't happen as the horses are home breds. Sales races do allow the smaller breeder and the smaller yard to cop a big pot as the prize money structure also richly rewards the breeder (the pin hooker will already have had his or her cut at the sale) as well as the owner, trainer, jockey etc and they play down to tenth for the big sales races at Newmarket and York (Tattersalls and DBS respectively). I would love for European horses to run at Ellderslie but Meydan offers better money and is a lot closer (I also think Emirates Racing pay travel costs but then they can afford to). The key remains the narrative - the story of the season in NZ defining where each race fits in that story leading toward Ellerslie - the Karaka Millions meeting should be like Future Champions Weekend concentrating on the 2-y-o.
  12. As expected, Ascot's Saturday fixture, due to feature the Grade 1 Clarence House Chase, was abandoned due to frost after a third night of very cold temperatures (-6 in Berkshire). I expect the Clarence House will be re-routed to next weekend at Cheltenham as it was in 2023 but EL FABIOLO won't come over so JONBON will likely have little more than a paid exercise gallop. Haydock and Taunton inspect tomorrow. Seven were confirmed at the final declaration stage for the Rossington Main at Haydock. It doesn't look a strong renewal. FIERCELY PROUD and LUMP SUM are both unbeaten in their two hurdles but they've won these at lower level tracks and this is their first time in the big leagues. The two horses with better form have both been let down by their jumping. SOUTHOFTHEBORDER was fourth in the Grade 2 Winter Novices at Sandown when blundering away his rider two out while FORTUNATE MAN was unlucky at Bangoe when being hampered at the third. He followed up in a warm race at Newbury a week later and he looks the option at 5s. MIler weather is coming and it may be Lingfield's Sunday meeting will go ahead.
  13. I'm away this weekend , my friend. Between that and the time difference, I'm not reliable as a team member.
  14. Not much to add from yesterday's report. As expected, Lingfield lost their Friday fixture with the Grade 2 Lightning transferred to Sunday. The Saturday card, which was to be the first of the new morning cards as part of the new "Premierisation" initiative has been moved back to the afternoon with the three afternoon turf meetings at Ascot, Haydock and Taunton all under threat from frost. The coming of Premier Racing to the UK basically means on a Saturday afternoon between 2 and 4pm there will be two Premier meetings and one non-Premier card with all the other meetings having to race at other times so more morning and evening meetings on a Saturday. This is because the bookies and tv complained the glut of racing was affecting turnover. The trouble is tv only shows the best races - it rarely shows Class 5 jump races or Class 6 flat races though this weekend may be an exception as we will get three successive afternoons of free-to-air racing though what and where seems very much up for grabs.
  15. The cold has well and truly arrived here, meetings falling left, right and centre. My birthday trip to Plumpton today aborted by a -7 overnight which, despite frost sheets, was far too strong and the course was frozen solid. Prospects for the weekend already look bleak - LIngfield stages its Winter Millions fixture on Friday and Sunday. This is only its third year but they lost the meeting last year to snow, frost and waterlogging (in that order). The concept is to hold a valuable midwinter meeting for horses who enjoy soft or heavy ground and don't get that at Cheltenham. The Grade 2 Lightning has a first prize of £42,000 which is decent for UK jump racing. Eight have been entered and the favourite for the 3200m race is DJELO who won well at Ascot before Christmas. This is a similar race albeit over 600m less. Earlier, he had beaten MASTER CHEWY narrowly at Aintree but Lingfield isn't Aintree but then nor is it Kempton where MASTER CHEWY was very good in the Wayward Lad at Christmas. I quite like JPR ONE whose third in the Henry VIII reads well in this company. Ascot is Frozen ahead of its big meeting on Saturday - just four have been entered for the Grade 1 Clarence House over 3300m. This features the long awaited rematch between the first and second from the Arkle at Cheltenham with EL FABIOLO taking on JONBON. The latter won the Tingle Creek and the former took the Hilly Way. At Cheltenham the gap was five and a half lengths and that won't be easy to close. Haydock is both Frozen and snow covered. 15 have been entered for the Grade 2 Rossington Main (used to be run at Doncaster and named after a famous local colliery) for the novice hurdlers over 3200m. It looks a strong field but we'll see where we are later in the week. One venue unlikely to be affected by frost is Meydan which stages another Carnival meeting on Friday but the Group 2 Cape Verdi is an insult to the grade with only three rated over 100 and the top rated filly 103. MYSTIC ROSE beat STENTON GLIDER in a Listed at Sandown last July but this is a good opportunity to add some value for these fillies on the way to the paddocks.
  16. A chance to review the three Grade 2 chases run yesterday. At Kempton, the Silviniaco Conti over 4000m ptoduced a thriulling finish between my two fancies, PIC D'ORHY and BANBRIDGE. The latter is the better jumper but I thought lack of a run would find him out against a proven right-hand expert but not for the first time I was wrong as PIC D'ORHY took an extra stride at the last and loat vital momentum allowing BANBRIDGE to assert and win a length and three quarters. Joseph O'Brien had brought this one for his first run in eight months in perfect order and he'll be hoping the ground is quick for the Ryanair though I think Aintree is his track. PIC D'ORHY did little wrong and time may tell he had a lot on giving the winner 3 lbs and I'm sure he'll be in the mix for the Ascot Chase next month. The outsider JANIDIL was well held in third while EDWARDSTONE, on his first try at the trip, pulled hard and was well beaten from three out. A wonderful race was marred by the fatal fall of NOTLONGTILLMAY, the Turners runner up. His trainer, Laura Morgan, came on ITV at her request and gave a highly emotional interview about the horse and the ups and downs of jump racing (she'd had the winner of a valuable race at Warwick just half an hour earlier) which wasn't easy to watch but reminded anyone and everyone how these beautiful creatures live, die and are loved. At Wetherby, the Grade 2 Hampton over 4800m wasn't perhaps the slog through the mid which had seemed likely. APPLE AWAY and BROADWAY BOY went hard from the start and the latter faded tamely from three out but APPLE AWAY had no answer to the late challenge of GREY DAWNING who looks a chaser of some promise on this evidence though the jumping left would concern at Ascot or Sandown. He's 10s for the Brown Advisory but I think he could be a decent staying chaser next season. He was part of a cross-card six timer for trainer Dan Skelton. One race Skelton didn't win was the Grade 2 Towton at Wetherby over 3950m. The odds on favourite COLONEL HARRY duly won but he didn't make it easy and would have been in big trouble had TRELAWNE not misbehaved. The latter hung badly right on both left hand turns and made David Bass's life really difficult. He looked booked for third at the second last but rallied well up the run in and was beaten less than two lengths. I hope they run him over a right handed track next time. The winner will probably go for the Turners but I'd be surprised if he was good enough for that strong race.
  17. I've just watched the video of the race three times. Curious - you don't normally get 25 second first 400m in a 1400m up here either. They sat in front and quickened off the turn and from 400m -200m they were going at about 10 seconds which is not hanging about. I thought Craig Grylls did thr horse and jockey to his inside no favours but these were all sprinters pulling and that can make them very hard to control. I couldn't quite see what caused the unseat - General Bunching, that ex-military type we often see in the UK in the summer.
  18. Grade 1 action in Ireland this afternoon with the Lawlor's of Naas Hurdle for the Novices: Lawlor's of Naas Novice Hurdle: A 1-2-3 for Willie Mullins but a turn up as READIN TOMMY WRONG, the least fancied of the Closutton horses at 16s mugged ILE ATLANTIQUE, who had made every yard, in the final 100m to win a neck. The runner up missed the fourth last but that didn't make the difference in my view. Whether they would confirm the places at Cheltenham is debatable. The disappointment was FIREFOX, the 2/1 favourite, who just looked short of pace in fourth and perhaps needs to go up in trip.
  19. The weather forecasters are warning of an ice age next week over the British Isles. This time last year, of course, we lost the big Ascot Clarence House meeting due to snow and frost so perhaps a little melodramatic. We'll see. Prospects of this Saturday seem reasonable with slightly less cold air in the mix. At Warwick, the ground has improved to Soft and five go in the Hampton Novices Chase over 4800m. With three horses all priced at 2/1 it's an open heat. APPLE AWAY and BROADWAY BOY have strong claims but the Exeter novice chase form with STAY AWAY FAY, in which GREY DAWNING was third, gets a further examination with the late supplementing of THE CHANGING MAN who was second. The latter blundered away his jockey at Sandown next time but with a better round of jumping is in this so four out of five have claims. I was impressed with BROADWAY BOY at Cheltenham and he's seen as a future National horse - Warwick is a test of the novice with seven fences in close succession down the far side. I think that will work well for BROADWAY BOY and he's my choice. At Kempton, the ground is now Good to Soft, Good in places and as a result BANBRIDGE has been backed in to 5/2 favourite for the Grade 2 Silvanaico Conti over 4050m. I love this horse and he jumps brilliantly but taking on PIC D'ORHY first time up is going to be a challenge and I'd rather be on the Nicholls runner at 3s. It should be a great spectacle watching these chasers pinging the Sunbury fences. Up at Wetherby, it's Soft, Heavy in places for the Towton over just shy of 4000m. COLONEL HARRY is 8/11 and looks solid against TRELAWNE from an out of form yard and THE KING OF RYHOPE who should enjoy this ground far more than the bottomless quagmire at Ffos Las where he was beaten a mere 62 lengths last time.
  20. The rescheduled Lawlor's Novice Hurdle at Naas on Friday has just seven runners but it still looks between FIREFOX and ILE ATLANTIQUE and there's little between them on form. It remains cold up here but the weekend meetings seem confident of going ahead at this time.
  21. It's very cold over here currently but some respite makes it likely the weekend cards will go ahead. At Warwick, seven have been entered for the Grade 2 Hampton Novices Chase over 4800m. BROADWAY BOY was very good at Cheltenham and is the deserved favourite APPLE AWAY won the Sefton at Liverpool in the spring od 2023 but has yet really to impress as a chaser and this will be the acid test. GREY DAWNING was a mid race faller in the Sefton and started his chasing career with a third to the useful STAY AWAY FAY. Since then he's won well over 4000m but I think back up to 4800m will help. STAY AWAY FAY's trainer, Paul Nicholls, saddles BRAVE KINGDOM who I saw win at Plumpton on his chasing debut after missing the 2022-23 season through injury. He followed up well at Newbury and is going to be right in this if he continues to improve. Kempton has the Grade 2 Silvaniaco Conti over 4050m for the internediate chasers. PIC D'ORHY has proved himself one of the best at this distance going right handed. He won this last year and looked as good as ever in the 1965 at Ascot in November so is a solid favourite. EDWARDSTONE has mixed it with the top speed chasers including chasing home JONBON in the Tingle Creek last time. This step up in trip looks a wise move though he did blunder away Tom Cannon over this track. I'm a huge fan of BANBRIDGE who is one of the best jumpers of a fence I've seen. He won the Manifesto at Aintree on his last novice run and the drying ground is a huge plus. At Wetherby we have the Grade 2 Towton Novice Chase over 3950m. Towton was arguably the bloodiest battle ever fought on English soil. The Yorkists under the future Edward IV defeated the Lancastrians in a snowstorm in March 1461. 20,000 died on the battlefield. Hopefully we'll get nothing like that on Saturday. COLONEL HENRY was a good second in the Henry VIII at Sandown and is 4/5 currently. TRELAWNE is interesting in opposition but the Kim Bailey yard is badly out of form. More on these races later in the week.
  22. I would love to see Ryan Moore or Hollie Doyle heading to Ellerslie along with Moreira. Would they come for two £500,000 races and a £750,000 race? I suppose they might but there's the Pegasus Invitational at Gulfstream on the 27th. Moore will probably be on WARM HEART for Ballydoyle. The turf race goes for US$1 million. Dettori seems happy in southern California while Doyle and Moreira are presuambly riding regularly in Japan. As an aside, I'd love one of the good NZ riders to be invited to the Shergar Cup at Ascot in August.
  23. The briefest of weekend updates as the Naas meeting was abandoned after one race due to fog. The Lawlor's will now be run on Friday (Ireland leaves plenty of room to reschedule meetings lost to the weather). Bit of a mess really but fog isn't easy to predict - the course announced two inspections with the second at 9.30am based on a Met Eireann forecast the fog would start lifting at noon with the first race off at 12.30pm. In truth, the fog did thin a bit especially around the stands but on the far side it was still bad. Nonetheless, they ran the opening mares chase over 4000m though the jockeys came in and said the visibility was bad on the far side. Just after the race, the fog thickened across the whole track and when stewards and jockeys went out for another look just before the scheduled off of race two (1pm), they called time on the whole card - the rule is, I think, the Judge has to be able to see the last fence and hurdle from the Judges Box and clearly by 1pm that wasn't the case. The whole crowd was offered either a refund or to move the ticket to Friday - today was Naas's biggest crowd of the season and it'll be a financial blow but they'll survive.
  24. Let me start by not being an expert at all Simple question - In France, if a horse in an Attele race breaks out of the trot into the gallop they are immediately disqualified. Why doesn't the same thing happen in NZ?
  25. Catching up on some bits and pieces, Cheltenham got a big crowd (apparently) on New Year's Day though the ground was Heavy, Soft in places. The feature Relkeel Hurdle over 4000m saw an impressive return from BOB OLINGER who won the Ballymore and the Turners in his time and has enjoyed good fortune at Prestbury Park. Held up at the rear, Rachel Blackmore brought him through quite a narrow gap approaching the last doing BREWINUPASTORM few favours but the result wasn't in doubt. MARIE'S ROCK was disappointing - she probably went too hard too early on the ground but had no answer to the winner up the hill. The problem for BOB OLINGER is there is no 4000m hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival - he's 20s for the 3200m Champion and 25s for the 4800m Stayers but the latter looks far and away the better option and in a staying division withn some ifs and buts about it, I think BOB OLINGER could bring that bit of class. At Meydan this afternoon, my each way on MARBAAN brought a small return as he was second to SAN DONATO who clocked a decent 1:34.46 for the 1600m (the only turf race run quicker than standard). Clearly, the form of the winner and LANEQASH at Abu Dhabi was stronger than I expected. To be fair, SAN DONATO didn't enjoy the best of runs 300m down and was value for more than the length and a half winning distance. REAL WORLD continues to disappoint. The weather has been awful up here this week (as it often is the first week of January) but while some years it's been snow and cold this year it's been unremitting rain. A lot fell on Tuesday and we had another deluge yesterday with 34mm leading to Sandown's Saturday card getting abandoned this morning. However, there's now a complete change in the weather with much colder and drier conditions setting in. This should mean no problens for the Grade 1 Lawlor's at Naas on Sunday where the ground is Soft to Heavy. The 4000m Novice Hurdle has attracted eight runners representing three trainers - Willie Mullins has five, Gordon Elliott two and Henry de Bromhead the other runner. The Mullins five look in the second rank of the Closutton novices - Paul Townend is on ILE ATLANTIQUE who bolted up by 19 lengths on hurdle debut at Gowran - on his last bumper win he was beaten a length by FIREFOX in a decent race at Fairyhouse. The Mullins second looks to be CHAPEAU DE SOLEIL who was an easy winner at Clonmel on hurdle debut. Both he and ILE ATLANTIQUE are in the "could be anything" file. The aforementioned FIREFOX is 2/1 favourite - he won on hurdle debut at Fairyhouse and the horse he beat, one of the Mullins legions called BALLYBURN won a 4000m novice hurdle at Leopardstown over Christmas by 25 lengths which is seriously impressive. If that can be taken literally (and heavy ground can often exaggerate superiority), FIREFOX has a huge chance but there's not much between him and ILE ATLANTIQUE and this will be an interesting event.