RaceCafe..#1...Tipsters Thread.... Share Your Fancies For Fun...Lets See Who The Best Tipsters Here Are.

stodge

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Posts posted by stodge

  1. Ireland should hold centre stage this Easter weekend in terms of quality action but the rain has been incessant in the Emerald Isle and meetings at Wexford, Gowran and Clonmel have already been lost.

    Fairyhouse stages three days of jumps action starting on Easter Saturdsy with the ground Heavy. Sunday's card features two Grade 1 races - the Honeysuckle Mares Novices Hurdle over 4000m is of course named after the Champion Hurdle heroine who ended her racing career with a win in the Mares Hurdle at Cheltenham in 2023.

    Honeysuckle herself is in foal to Walk in the Park, who is the sire of top jumpers like Douvan, Min and JONBON and who was himself second in the 2005 English Derby.

    Back to Fairyhouse and the second and fourth from the Mares Novices at Cheltenham - BRIGHTERDAYSAHEAD and JADE DE GRUGY - head the entries. I like JETARA who swerved Cheltenham after running third in the Nathaniel Lacy at the Dublin Festival.

    The WillowWarm Gold Cup is for the intermediate novice chasers over 4000m. FOUND A FIFTY and IL ETAIT TEMPS were second and third in the Arkle at Cheltenham and I think the latter will really appreciate the extra 800m. It's one all between BLOOD DESTINY and SPILLANE'S TOWER on recent runs in Grade 3 company and both missed Cheltenham for this.

    After today's acceptance stage, only five British trained horses are guaranteed a run in the Grand National on April 13th. True, some of the top weights could well come out and give a horse like KITTY'S LIGHT at number 38 a chance but the field this year will be 34 rather than the usual 40.

  2. Meydan stages the Dubai World Cup meeting on Saturday afternoon (UK) and a stellar eight race card features five Group 1 races.

    Twelve go in the Al Quoz Sprint over 1200m on turf and it's a real clash of both the generations and the racing jusrisdictions. Top rated is CALIFORNIA SPENGLE from Hong Kong who usually races over 1400m and won the Queen's Silver Jubilee Cup at the big Sha Tin meeting a fortnight ago. A straight 1200m may seem like a tunring 1400m but I just wonmder if he's going to have the tactical speed to give 13 lbs to the 3-y-o filly STAR OF MYSTERY who is rated only 10 lbs inferior. She kept good company in the UK as a juvenile running well in both the Duchess of Cambridge and the Lowther. She won over 1000m on her first try at Meydan but was turned over at 4/9 in a Group 3 last time so perhaps the extra 200m will help. It'll have to as she'll be mixing it with some experienced sprinters.

    CASA CREED is a fascinating runner from the Bill Mott stable in America. He was last seen running third in the Breeders Cup Mile but has form at shorter tri;ps including when second in the 1351 Sprint at Riyadh in 2023. Like most Americans, he'll jump and run and might just have the legs of these at this trip. Another to consider is last year's surprise winner DANYAH who had a nice prep run in the Al Fahidi Fort.

    My idea of the winner is CASA CREEK but I expect another good run from DANYAH.

    The Golden Shaheen is over 1200m on the Dirt and it looks a three way go between the Americans, the Japanese and the locals. For the Americans, SIBELIUS was last year's winner but he's not done much since and I prefer Wesley Ward's NAKATOMI who was a close third in the Breeders Cup Disrt Sprint. HOPKINS was only a length behind SIBELIUS when fourth in this race last year and is another with serious claims from the American side.

    REMAKE looks the best of the Japanese - he holds IGNITER on Osaka form and won the Dirt Sprint in Riyadh last time in which BOLD JOURNEY was third. Among the locals, TUZ was seventh in this last year and looked very good back in January while MOUHEEB was also very good, albeit both in Group 3 company and here they are up against some very good foreign runners. It's not a race I find easy to read with conflicting form lines and the quandary as to whether the Meydan Dirt is more like American or Japanese Dirt. NAKATOMI is only a tentative choice. I just think the locals, for all their track experience, just don't have the form quality of the Americans and Japanese.

    The Dubai Turf over 1800m on the grass is always a strong race. A full field of 16 go to post. In 2022, DO DEUCE was the last horse to beat Equinox in that year's Japanese Derby. We all know how good the second went on to become including a brilliant performance in the 2023 Sheema Classic. As for DO DEUCE, a trip to the Arc didn't end well and he was well beaten in the Tenno Sho and the Japan Cup but with his old rival retired, DO DEUCE won the Arima Kinen in late December. Whether that's good enough to win this I'm not sure. MEASURED TIME leads the local challenge and won the other Group 1 at this trip, the Jebel Hatta, in late January. 

    LORD NORTH won this in 2023 just beating the Japanese DANON BELUGA but the former was turned over at Southwell in the Winter Derby and I'm not convinced. DANON BELUGA is held by DO DEUCE on Japan Cup running but this shorter trip should suit the former. NASHWA is the second Gosden runner and she's very interesting. Soft ground was against her in the Nassau and the Champion Stakes but on her second in the Juddmonte and third in the Irish Champion she is right in this and is my idea of the winner. LUXEMBOURG represents Ballydoyle but he doesn't win that often and while his second in Hong Kong last December was very good, his fourth to SPIRIT DANCER in Riyadh was a shade disappointing.

    I think at 10s NASHWA is a good each way bet.

    Twelve go in the Sheema Classic over 2400m on the grass and the £2.7 million first prize has attracted a powerful field. It's wonderful to see AUGUSTE RODIN back as a 4-y-o and on reflection it's clear soft or even slow ground isn't for him. His two flops in the English 2000 Guineas and the King George VI & Queen Elizabeth Diamond Stakes were both on wet turf but on fast ground he was superb in the English Derby, the Irish Derby, the Irish Champion and the Breeders Cup Turf. A flat 2400m looks tailor made and for me he takes a lot of beating. 

    Yet he faces a formidable rival in the Japanese filly LIBERTY ISLAND who gets 5 lbs. She was a runaway winner of the Japan Oaks last year but was beaten four lengths by Equinox in the Japan Cup. That was no disgrace and brings her right into this. It's a mouthwatering prospect but I just favour the English Derby winner over the Japanese Oaks winner. EMILY UPJOHN is no mug having won the Coronation Cup at Epsom and just failed to give 7 lbs to Paddington (the new top NZ stallion I'm told) in the Eclipse. She meets the younger horses on level terms but the two are exceptional and EMILY UPJOHN may want more of a stamina test.

    The ratings for the twelve vary from 115 to 125 so they are all good horses - the likes of SPIRIT DANCER, JUNKO, SIMCA MILLE and SHAHRYAR are all Group 1 winners in their own right but this is an exceptionally strong race - possibly the best 2400m race outside the Arc all year.

    Finally, the Dubai World Cup itself over 2000m on the Dirt. It's still worth £5.5 million to the winner for all the Saudi Cup is more valuable. Last year's winner USHBA TESORO was run down by SENOR BUSCADOR at Riyadh, the two both coming off the suicidal early gallop. Will the same happen here? It seems to in these top Dirt races which are run in an American style. The Meydan Dirt has favoured front runners in the past but now seems more equal.  KABIRKHAN is the best of the locals but he needs to find 5 lbs to tackle the 1-2 from the Saudi Cup but it's not impossible. DERMA SATOGAKE was runner up in the Breeders Cup Classic but was fifth in Riyadh and I'm not sure the Dubai dirt will paly to his strengths. 

    It looks between the front four for all the likes of LAUREL RIVER and NEWGATE are decent. My gut feeling is the Japanese horse USHBA TESORO will win again.

    Selections:

    Al Quoz Sprint: CASA CREEK

    Golden Shaheen: NAKATOMI 

    Dubai Turf: NASHWA (each way)

    Sheema Classic: AUGUSTE RODIN

    World Cup: USHBA TESORO

  3. A few snippets from the weekend up here:

    As Harry has reported, the champion sprinter HIGHFIELD PRINCESS has died. She was retired last Wednesday having suffered an injury in her stall but it seems the extent of the injury was far greater than first reported and she had to be put to sleep.

    Her Group 1 successes began in the summer of 2022 with the Maurice de Gheest at Deauville and the Nunthorpe at York followed by the Flying Five at The Curragh showing her versatility at trips between 1000 and 1300m.

    In 2023, she was runner up in the King's Stand and then third in the Platinum Jubilee at Royal Ascot before finishing runner up in the Nunthorpe. Her final European run was a win in the Abbaye at Longchamp on Arc day and in her final race she was fourth in Hong Kong. In all she netted her owners £1.8 million in win and place prize money. Her best rating was 120 and she ended on 119, a long way from her first win in a Class 6 handicap at Ayr in the autumn of 2020 off a mark of 58.

    Back to the here and then, trainer William Haggas had a global double when MONAASIB won the 1200m Listed race on the opening day of the turf flat season at Doncaster. The useful CHARYN booked a trip to the Group 2 Mile at Sandown with a very nice win in the opening Listed 1600m event. He mixed it with the likes of Paddington and Chaldean last season in races like the Englaish and Irish 2000 Guineas and the St James's Palace and it'll be interesting to see if he is the best of the older milers this year.

    The opening 2-y-o race of the season, the Brocklesby, over 1000m, went to a pony sized thing called ZMINIATURE, a son of Territories. Of those in behind, I particularly liked DUKES OF HAATHER, a son of first season stallion Mohaather, who stands at Beech House Stud for £12,500.

    Looking ahead, it's still low on quality this week - Good Friday sees the championship final day for the synthetic season at Newcastle while over Easter weekend the main racing is in Ireland at Fairyhouse with a three day jumps festival including the Irish National on Easter Monday. The most important racing is in Meydan where Saturday sees the Dubai World Cup. More on this as we go through the week.

  4. Just watched POST IMPRESSIONIST win the Manion Cup. To be honest, different class and Haggas will be delighted the way the horse quickened smartly off the home turn.

    Is he a Melbourne Cup horse for later in the year? Not sure yet but this was very nice.

    Also caught up with VIA SISTINA in the Ranvet. She was second in the Group 1 Champion Stakes up here which is very good form and she did this very nicely. I thought the runner up also ran well as did the third. For 2.7 million guineas, VIA SISTINA still has a way to go but I imagine she's been bought as a potential broodmare for Yulong to take to the very top stallions in time. 

    The plan is the Queen Elizabeth II as you might expect - could she go for a Cox Plate later this year?

    PLACE DU CARROUSEL is another potential broodmare but on the racetrack I'd step her up to 2400m which was her trip in Europe.

  5. 14 hours ago, Ohokaman said:

    Manion Cup Rosehill Saturday Stodge. 2400m. Tom Marquand riding.

    Thank you.

    If it stays no worse than a Soft 5 or improves, POST IMPRESSIONIST should be fine and the trip looks ideal. They tried him over 3200m at Ascot and he didn't get home nor does he enjoy heavy ground.

    Seems to be 5/2 or 11/4 with the Aussie bookmakers. First run after over 6 months off the track?

  6. 16 hours ago, pogo(aus) said:

    mighty ulysses ?

    MIGHTY ULYSSES was highly tried as a 3-y-o in 2022 running a very close fifth to the ill-fated CORROEBUS in the St James's Palace before picking up a Group 3 at York. The 4-y-o campaign included another Group 3 win but he was a shade disappointing in Group 2 company at Newmarket in the autumn. Could do very well in Australia as he liked quick ground.

    14 hours ago, Ohokaman said:

    Post Impressionist for Haggas in the Manion Cup, and New Energy second up in the Ryder…..🤔

    POST IMPRESSIONIST is a solid handicapper, rated 98, and was only four lengths behind ABSURDE in the Ebor. I don't know anything about the Manion Cup such as when, where and over what distance.

    NEW ENERGY was runner up in the 2022 Irish 2000 Guineas and then eighth (behind MIGHTY ULYSSES) in the St James's Palace. As a 4-y-o, ran twice but was disappointing and as you say had a decent pipe opener the other day. 

    He's 18s and MIGHTY ULYSSES 30s for the George Ryder up here - not sure I'd be rushing to back either but it looks a very open race - favourite up here is THINK ABOUT IT at 16/5 with MILITARIZE available at 4s.

  7. Time to bring back this thread as we start into the autumn campaign in the Southern Hemisphere.

    Saturday sees a big card at Rosehill with eight going in the Ranvet over 2000m. 

    VIA SISTINA was rated 117 up here and was sold for 2.7 million guineas at the Tattersalls December Mares Sale which is serious cash. She was runner up in both the Jean Romanet at Deauville and the Champion Stakes at Newmarket and while HORIZON DORE did little for the form in the Exbury last Saturday, I'm not sure that's too relevant. All her form was on slow turf up here so any drying ground would be a concern.

    PLACE DU CARROUSEL went for 4 million euros at the Arqana Elevage Sale (the equivalent of the aforementioned Tatts sale in France) and she won the Group 2 Foy before finishing down the field in the Arc. She probably wants 2400m but shouldn't be underestimated.

    Ryan Moore is on BUCKAROO who was with Joseph O'Brien last year. This is far more his trip and the pipe opener over 1400m three weeks ago will have put him right. He didn't run badly in either the King Charles III or the Tab Champion Stakes last autumn. 

     

  8. As Harry has reported, OPERA SINGER looks set to miss the 1000 Guineas at Newmarket after suffering a setback.

    She was a convincing winner of the Marcel Boussac last autumn and previously had dished out a six and a half length beating to BRILLIANT, already a Group 3 winner this season.

    YLANG YLANG is 7/2 favourite for the fillies' classic on May 5th with FALLEN ANGEL at 4s.

    CITY OF TROY is 4/6 to win the 2000 Guineas the previous day.

  9. Moving on, the first day of the Irish Flat season on grass survived the rain.

    The opening 1000m juvenile maiden was run in a time of 1 minute 8.6 seconds and went to ARIZONA BLAZE, the well backed 5/4 favourite and a son of first season sire SERGEI PROKOFIEV who stands at Whitbury Manor Stud.

    A good start for Aidan O'Brien with his filly BRILLIANT winning the Group 3 and earning a 40/1 shot for the English 1000 Guineas. O'Brien also revealed Seamie Heffernan had left the Ballydoyle team to ride as a freelance and it looks as though Declan McDonagh will be the number two rider to Ryan Moore.

    In France, the opening Group 3 Exbury over 2000m was run in a time of 2 minutes 25.22 seconds which shows how deep the French turf must be. The winner, HAYA ZAK, had run down the field in both the Arc and the Royal Oak last season but stayed 2400m really well.

    The British turf season starts in its usual low key way at Doncaster on Saturday where the ground is currently Heavy, Soft in places. 

    A housekeeping reminder Easter Saturday sees Dubai World Cup night at Meydan with five Group 1 races including the Dubai World Cup worth USD 12 million to the winner.

  10. The fourth and final day of the Cheltenham Festival saw the best weather of the week with some sunshine but there had been another 9 mm of rain overnight leaving the hurdle course Heavy with the steeplechase course Soft, Heavy in places. Perhaps not quite as much a slog as the Wednesday but a clear downgrade from Thursday.

    The card opened with the Triumph Hurdle for the 4-y-o. With SIR GINO scratched owing to the poor form of the Henderson yard, the Mullins team took centre stage and the first three from the Spring Juvenile Hurdle at the Dublin Festival re-opposed with the mare KARGESE getting the 5 lb allowance from STORM HEART and MAJBOROUGH. The last named went off favourite with the expectation he would improve for only his third racecourse run.

    MAJBOROUGH is a giant of a horse and may still need more time to grow physically but the fact trainer Willie Mullins is already talking of him as a Gold Cup horse speaks volumes. I imagine he'll go chasing next season and as a 4-y-o gets a lot of weight from the older novices. 

    He did this well but KARGESE emerges with plenty of credit and she could be a very useful contender for the Mares Hurdle next season. My each way ticket on SALVER paid out nicely and he's decent for all he's had the benefit of running on very soft or heavy turf which he clearly relishes. Whether he's up to taking on the likes of SIR GINO on better ground remains to be seen - it may be trainer Gary Moore will be hoping the rain keeps coming all the way to the National meeting. 

    STORM HEART lost out on fourth to NURBURGRING who is certainly one to put in the notebook. He won at 2200m on the flat and ran here as though 4000m would suit. STORM HEART didn't look happy on the ground and he might be one to keep on the right side when the ground improves.

    The Albert Bartlett is the championship race for the staying novice hurdlers over 4850m and often the first signs of who will make the best of the staying chasers next season. The Mullins horse READIN' TOMMY WRONG was 2/1 favourite having won four this winter including the Lawlor's at Naas just after New Year. However, he'd never won at this trip and stable mate DACING CITY, who won over 4400m at Leopardstown, looked a more likely option. The home team was headed by the Nicholls runner CAPTAIN TEAGUE who had won the Challow at Newbury.

    A real slog on the ground but it looked as though THE JUKEBOX MAN would go trap to line under an enterprising ride from Ben Jones but it wasn't to be as, having looked beaten two out, STELLAR STORY found a second wind to chin the long time winner on the jamstick and won a head. The winner was 33s and a real relief for the bookies who had taken another pounding with the earlier results. 

    He'd been 11 lengths behind DANCING CITY in the Nathaniel Lacy but had previously run well over 4750m at Limerick and in November had finished just five lengths behind SLADE STEEL in a Grade 2 at Navan. Nonetheless, it was a brave call to fancy him but the one thing he does is stay and he's a National type one day. The runner up ran a huge race and whether they keep him to hurdles or put him over the larger obstacles, it will be fascinating to see how he is campaigned next season.

    DANCING CITY tired from the last to finish third but he will improve for some better ground while plenty of tall reputations were lost in the Cheltenham mud. GIDLEIGH PARK was sixth while CAPTAIN TEAGUE ran a shocker in tenth and READIN' TOMMY WRONG, who hadn't looked happy on the far side the final time, weakened tamely after the third last and was pulled up. Again, we may see all of these to much better effect on better ground.

    On then to the feature of the meeting, the Cheltenham Gold Cup over 5250m and this year with added symbolism as it was the centenary of the race, first inaugurated in 1924 when worth £685 to the winner - this year's renewal had a pot of just over £350k to the winner. Favourite was last year's winner GALOPIN DES CHAMPS who had looked very good in both the Savils at Christmas and the Irish Gold Cup in February. FASTORSLOW, who had run second in the Irish Gold Cup but who had beaten GALOPIN DES CHAMPS twice at Punchestown, was displaced as second favourite near the off by GERRI COLOMBE, who had run second in last year's Brown Advisory and won the Champion Chase at Down Royal.

    However, he was 23 lengths second to GALOPIN DES CHAMPS in the Savils at Christmas and that looked a lot to claw back at level weights.

    Perhaps not the imperious performance of 2023 but nonetheless GALOPIN DES CHAMPS retained his title with plenty to style. He jumped superbly in a race not run perhaps at the usual strong gallop - they ran the 5250m in 7 minutes 5.14 seconds (19 seconds off the standard certainly confirming the ground was slow) and was always travelling well just off the pace.

    L'HOMME PRESSE was, as expected, ridden close to the pace but he had no answer when Paul Townend sent GALOPIN DES CHAMPS on at the second last. Only GERRI COLOMBE offered any kind of threat and 23 lengths at Christmas was reduced to three and a half lengths here but the result was never in doubt.

    The Grand National winner CORACH RAMBLER ran a huge trial for Aintree in third running on strongly until just fading up the hill and he's now just 5/1 favourite for the Aintree showpiece next month. L'HOMME PRESSE didn't see out the trip as connections feared and finished fourth while BRAVEMANSGAME isn't the horse he was last year and the ground didn't suit either. FASTORSLOW lost his rider at the sixteenth so too early to know if he could have got involved.

    I think GERRI COLOMBE might well take his chance at Aintree and he has little to fear from the home team on this evidence. The absent HEWICK will be a likely opponent and this horse will miss the National.

    GALOPIN DES CHAMPS reigns supreme at the top of the staying chaser division and while FACT OR FILE could be a big challenger next year, the real threats look to be BALLYBURN in two years and perhaps MAJBOROUGH the year after. With them all in different ownerships, it'll be fascinating to see how they are campaigned next year. GALOPIN DES CHAMPS will doubtless go to Punchestown but it's a course where he is vulnerbale and he seems much happier going left handed so FASTORSLOW might yet make the score 3-2.

    In other races, Ebor winner and Melbourne Cup seventh won the County Hurdle, a really tough 3200m handicap, to arguably put himself as the best dual purpose horse in training, Will he have another crack at Flemington this year? Who knows?

    Another treble for Willie Mullins on the final day and a double for Gordon Elliott while Gavin Cromwell's well supported LIMERICK LACE upset DINOBLUE in the Grade 2 Mares Chase.

    So, Ireland won the final day 6-1 (the British won the Hunter chase with SINE NOMINE foiling Derek O'Connor's bid to take out all three of the amateur riders races at the meeting) and the overall Prestbury Park score was 18-9 to the Irish. That tells only part of the story - the Grade 1 championship races went 12-2 to the Irish and in terms of first three places in the 14 championship races it was 31-11 to Ireland. The handicaps stopped a defeat becoming a rout and some have argued the British handicappers were quite hard on the Irish and quite lenient on the British challengers.

    The attendances were down with only 46,000 on the Wednesday but the last two days were better. Plenty for jumps fans to ponder and there's already plenty of post-meeting fallout and discussion and indeed soul-searching.

  11. The third day of the Cheltenham Festival saw the racing switch to Cheltenham's New Course which is very different to the other track with more emphasis on stamina and a longer uphill finish.

    On ground which hadn't been used since the autumn, the going was upgraded to Soft and times suggested it was bordering good to soft and it certainly looked much less of a slog than it had the previous days.

    Three more championship races and for a change much more competitive with no odds on shots and a good spread around the trainers and a real sense of the Anglo-Irish competition being revived after the first two days of Mullins dominance.

    The card opened with the Turners Novices Chase over 4000m for the intermediate novices. As I've mentioned, an open market though money came for the Mullins contender and former Bumper winner FACILE VEGA. There was a strong home challenge led by GREY DAWNING and GINNY'S DESTINY who had fought out a close finish over the course and distance back in December when a mistake at the second last cost GREY DAWNING the race. He had gone on to look very good over 4800m at Warwick.

    A better round of jumping was a big help as GREY DAWNING took revenge on GINNY'S DESTINY and comprehensively broke the Irish stranglehold of the championship races. The front two were prominent throughout along with DJELO who ran with a lot of credit in third.  You just sensed the winner was idling for all the runner up rallied up the hill. Both are decent novices but how they will handle the Irish in open company next year remains to be seen. I thought IROKO ran a decent race in fifth and he could be the one to follow on decent ground both before the end of this year and in the next campaign. I suspect we may see all three in the King George at Kempton on Boxing Day which the Irish tend to avoid these days.

    FACILE VEGA is for me not a natural chaser and it may be a return to smaller obstacles will help.

    The Ryanair Chase over 4050m looked a fascinating contest. Last year's winner ENVOI ALLEN was favourite - he had been kept fresh since his fine effort in the Champion Chase at Down Royal but he faced a strong field including BANBRIDGE and CONFLATED as well as the British challenge headed by last year's Turners winner STAGE STAR.

    A wonderful meeting for the Skelton yard with PROTEKTORAT their third winner and an extraordinary hour for the ownership combination of Ged Mason, John Hales and Sir Alex Ferguson who had won the previous long distance handicap hurdle with MONMIRAL trained by Paul Nicholls. It's worth remembering PROTEKTORAT was third in the 2021 Gold Cup and fifth in the 2022 renewal and his running style always suggested the full Gold Cup trip was too far and this was the obvious alternative.

    PROTEKTORAT powered up the hill in the style of a classy sort while I thought ENVOI ALLEN, who had been travelling strongly two out, finished tamely. A British winner but a 2-3-4 for the Irish with CONFLATED edging out CAPODANNO for the minor money. STAGE STAR did too much too early and didn't get home while the ground was clearly too slow for BANBRIDGE and they'll be hoping for some dry weather before Aintree.

    The winner has frustrated on more than one occasion and I wonder if they'll let him take his chance at Aintree where a flatter track might help. I thought the second would also prefer a better surface and there are still opportunities in the spring for this relatively fresh type to nab another Grade 1 prize. Both third and fourth ran with credit but the problem they have is there are so many good staying chasers about and they need them not to turn up to be truly competitive at the highest level.

    For many, the Stayers Hurdle was the race of the week and a real clash of the generations with the 7-y-o TEAHUPOO and CRAMBO taking on established stars such as PAISLEY PARK, DASHEL DRASHER and last year's winner SIRE DU BERLAIS. The money came for the Gordon Elliott trained TEAHUPOO who was supported in to 5/4. It had been a frustrating week for Elliott whose horses were running well but coming up short - no wins and eight placed runners told its own story.

    Redemption or salvation for Team Elliott as TEAHUPOO emphatically took the staying baton from the older hurdlers. This was a decent performance from the Hatton's Grace winner and clearly he's the best on the block now and possibly for the next couple of seasons.

    In the end, it was fairly simple for Jack Kennedy though there was plenty of traffic at the bottom of the hill. FLOORING PORTER, who won this race in 2021 and 2022 and was fourth last year, put up a solid effort and he virtually reproduced last year's form with the winner - having been three lengths behind in 2023, he was four lengthe behind this year. Perhaps it's just the older ones have got older while the younger ones have stayed the same - time will tell, it always does.

    The Irish dominated with the first seven home and the British trio were well beaten. CRAMBO probably wasn't at this best on the ground and this was the swansong for PAISLEY PARK, the 12-y-o who won the 2019 version of this race and has been a wonderful servant and friend to his owner Andrew Gemmill and trainer Emma Lavelle. It may also be the end for the likes of DASHEL DRASHER and SIRE DU BERLAIS, the first two home last year but eighth and fifth respectively this time. The problem is, CRAMBO apart, the cupboard looks particularly bare for the British staying hurdlers at this time. I'm afraid all too often the staying novices are put straight over fences but perhaps an enterprising trainer and owner will look at keeping one for hurdles as races like the Long Walk look wide open.

    TEAHUPOO will, I imagine, head for Punchestown and a rematch with the second but it's hard to see why the result should be any different.

    A much better day for the British winning five of the seven races and only two heading across the Irish Sea on what was termed St Paddy's Thursday. That took the Prestbury Cup score back to Ireland 12 Britain 8 so the British still have a squeak of wresting the Cup back going into the final day but not much more than that.

  12. 12 hours ago, Leggy said:

    Gosh that's a marathon. Had to pretty heavy too.

    Yes but the jockeys wwre very sensible in the conditions.

    Basically walked for 6000m and raced the last 400m - all got home fine and split by four lengths.

  13. 19 hours ago, chevy86 said:

    2 year old 1200  run in 1-09 and second race 1400 1-23  -----track rating a SOFT 7 ?????🤣

     

    At Hexham (or Yarridge Heights to give it its local name) on Thursday they ran a 6400m steeplechase in 10 minutes 57 seconds.

    How do you think the ground was?

  14. The second day of the Cheltenham Festival saw some better weather for the racegoers but the ground remained Soft, Heavy in places thanks to some overnight re-alignment of the rails. 

    Four more championship races starting with the intermediate novices hurdle race over 4200m which is now called the Gallagher Novices Hurdle. Frankly, a derisory field of just seven went to post with Willie Mullins, fresh from his opening day treble, supplying five includig hot favourite BALLYBURN who had bene touted for both this and the Supreme on the first day. He had sauntered home at Leopardstown by 25 lengths in a warm maiden hurdle over 4000m at Christmas and had followed up beating SLADE STEEL (the Supreme winner) seven lengths in the Grade 1 novice hurdle at the Dublin Festival. His main rival on paper looked to be stable mate ILE ATLANTIQUE.

    In 1982, Yorkshire trainer Michael Dickenson, the Mullins of his time, trained the first five home in the Gold Cup (Wayward Lad, Silver Buck, Bregawn, Captain John and Ashley House). Mullins emulated that here in this slightly lesser race but it's still astonishing to see the dominance of one trainer which, I'd argue, not even Aidan O'Brien has yet achieved.

    BALLYBURN is a seriously good horse on this evidence. He was never out of third gear and sauntered up the hill. I've little doubt he would have won the Supreme had he contested it but that's irrelevant. Willie Mullins's father, Paddy, trained the famous mare Dawn Run, the only horse so far to have won BOTH a Champion Hurdle and a Gold Cup. I suspect Willie Mullins is of the view this horse could do the same. 

    The idea of this horse going against the likes of LOSSIEMOUTH, CONSTITUTION HILL and STATE MAN in the 2025 Champion Hurdle is almost too awesome to take in. How would he fare? I just think the stable companions may be the better hurdlers and for all Nicky Henderson's travails currently (his runner here was pulled up and the reaction of jockey Nico de Boinville on being doorstepped by Matt Chapman on the way back into the weighing room was the epitome of restraint, frustration and understatement) CONSTITUTION HILL remains the one they all have to beat.

    I suspect BALLYBURN will go over fences and if he jumps those as well as he does the hurdles the Turners or the Brown Advisory next year will be at his mercy - is he a future Gold Cup winner? You'd have to say he's a future contender with the main threats once again emerging from within his own yard.

    JIMMY DU SEUIL outran his odds of 66s to spoil forecasts while ILE ATLANTIQUE was for me a little disappointing and I suspect he found the tacky ground hard work.

    The aforementioned Brown Advisory Novices Chase over 4850m for the staying novices was up next. Another small field - just six - and again a Mullins odds on favourite with FACT TO FILE, who had beaten an admittedly well below par GAELIC WARRIOR at the Dublin Racing Festival, backed in to 8/13. The supposedly main British challenger, STAY AWAY FAY, drifted like a barge from 7/2 to 8s with money coming for MONTY'S STAR for the combination of Henry de Bromhead and the ever smiling Rachel Blackmore.

    The betting market, as it often does, spoke volumes with STAY AWAY FAY, for me, in trouble after a circuit and pulling up at the bottom of the hill.

    GIOVINCO ran a fine race for Scotland  - he's a horse I've always liked and I think he could make into a Gold Cup type next year.

    This, however, was again all about Willie Mullins but it was Mark Walsh, who rides the JP McManus horses in Ireland, who was on top as FACT TO FILE powered home to put down a marker to, among others, BALLYBURN and GAELIC WARRIOR from his own yard. This was the 99th Festival winner for Willie Mullins, another outstanding achievement. FACT TO FILE was ridden with huge confidence well off the early gallop but down the hill Walsh made his move and he always had far too much horse for the others. MONTY'S STAR did nothing wrong in defeat - he just came up against a very good one.

    With 99 on the board, many thought Mullins would reach the century with EL FABIOLO in the Queen Mother Champion Chase , the afternoon's feature and the Blue Riband for the speed chasers. The British challenge was severely reduced with the defections of both JONBON and BOOTHILL leaving emphatic Newbury winner EDWARDSTONE as the main threat to EL FABIOLO who went off 2/9. The irony of EDWARDSTONE's trainer Alan King presenting a white flag to Willie Mullins in the paddock before racing wasn't lost on anyone.

    An extraordinary race which just goes to show you can assume nothing and must always expect the unexpected.

    In truth, I hadn't been taken with EL FABIOLO over the first couple of fences and those seeking to oppose the 2/9 shot had always thought jumping was the horse's achilles heel and so it proved at the relatively innocuous fourth fence by the stands. The horse took off too early and sprawled on landing. Paul Townend did the right thing and immediately pulled the horse up and he walked back sound enough but time will tell if any real muscle damage was done.

    With EL FABIOLO out of the way, I had hopes my each way ticket on EDWARDSTONE might yet provide steak and chips for me and Mrs Stodge but alas it would be another dog's dinner. He was never travelling with fluency on this tacky ground and his fall at the second last was that of an exhausted horse. Hopefully, back on some decent ground at Sandown, he will once again thrill us all as he is a very good jumper.

    Speaking of dogs, they say every one has his day and this was CAPTAIN GUINNESS's 14th run in a championship race but let's not forget he chased home ENERGUMENE in this last year and has placed behind all the top two milers but just this once, fortune or misfortune if you prefer was on his side and he stayed on resolutely to hold GENTLEMEN DU MEE,. who would have reached the century for Mullins. Instead, it was de Bromhead and Blackmore who took the plaudits and while neither would argue they were anything more than fortunate, the fact remains you have to jump the fences in the ground on the day.

    With the likes of GAELIC WARRIOR on the horizon, it's going to be another strong year in this division - ENERGUMENE will be back after his year out and clearly we've not seen the last of either JONBON or EL FABIOLO. I wonder if JONBON will go to Aintree or Punchestown if the ground improves and if no damage has bene done, I'm sure EL FABIOLO will be a likely opponent.

    Willie Mullins missed the century there but with a dozen contenders in the Champion Bumper there was every chance the 100th winner would be achieved but the market spoke for the Gordon Elliott horse JALON D'OUDAIRIES who was backed down to 3s.

    The century duly landed and not a dry eye in the house as Willie's son, Patrick, brought home JASMIN DE VAUX to victory running down ROMEO COOLIO from the Elliott yard in the final 100m. It was wonderful to see the Mullins family present to enjoy the moment and of course all that would have made the day complete was for Willie's mother, Maureen, to have been here as well. 

    Patrick gave up the outside to no one on the winner who is obviously decent and with plenty of stamina so could be the Gallagher horse for next year. I thought JALON D'OUDAIRIES might be the one for the shorter distances as he travelled well through the race before finding the final hill on that ground too much.

    Willie Mullins had four of the first seven home, Gordon Elliott had the other three. The first British runner, ROYAL INFANTRY from the Skelton yard, was eighth beaten 18 lengths by the winner. That sounds a hugely ominous warning for next season with the Irish stranglehold on the novice division if anything tightening still further.

    Willie Mullins had another treble but Dan Skelton took out the two handicaps for the locals so the score on the day was 4-2 to Ireland and after two days the Prestbury Cup score was Ireland 10 Britain 3 - where did Alan King put that white flag?

  15. As a brief interlude to matters Cheltenham, a word on the emerging flat racing scene up here.

    The first Irish turf flat racing is due to take place at The Curragh on Monday but the course is currently unraceable and waterlogged. With more rain forecast, I suspect the Irish Flat season will have a delayed start.

    The French race through the winter down the south but Saint-Cloud stages the first Parisien grass meeting tomorrow on ground described as Very Heavy. The first Group 3 is the Exbury over 2000m which features HORIZON DORE who was third in the Champion Stakes at Ascot last October. He then went to Sha Tin and was well held in the Hong Kong Cup. He has obvious claims if ready.

    MARQUISAT was runner up in the Conseil de Paris splitting IRESINE, the Ganay winner and JUNKO, who would go on to win the Vase at Sha Tin so that's solid form. The British raider is MUJTABA from the Haggas yard who hasn't run since just failing to catch POINT LONSDALE in the Huxley at Chester last May. On a tenuous line through that horse, he comes out very close to HORIZON DORE. I think MARQUISAT will beat them both. 

  16. Off we go then with the first day of the 2024 Cheltenham Festival and a damp afternoon greeted the thousands who thronged to Prestbury Park.

    Rain throughout the morning had finally eased by the start of racing but the ground, officially caused Soft, Heavy in places was changed to Heavy, Soft in places after they ran the opening Supreme in 4 minutes 12.87 seconds, nearly 24 seconds off standard and a clear indication the ground was genuinely Heavy.

    The Supreme Novices Hurdle kicked off proceedings and with BALLYBURN moved to the Gallagher 24 hours later, it looked wide open with TULLYHILL for Willie Mullins narrow favourite but money came for both SLADE STEEL and MYSTICAL POWER, a stable companion of the favourite.

    A tremendous start for trainer Henry de Bromhead and jockey Rachel Blackmore as SLADE STEEL showed plenty of stamina to hold the lead up the hill and defy MYSTICAL POWER. FIREFOX wasn't helped by some scrimmaging approaching the last and was arguably a shade unlucky and he's the one I take out of the race for the future. ASIAN MASTER ran a huge race in fourth. TULLYHILL did too much too soon and you can't do that on this ground. He might be better on a sounder surface and a sharper track like Aintree.

    The British were routed with a torrid time for Nicky Henderson continuing with a dismal effort from JERIKO DU REPONET who stopped quickly at the top of the hill and was pulled up. FAVOUR AND FORTUNE was the best of the locals in sixth but with Irish horses filling eight of the first nine places it's an ominous sign for next season.

    The Arkle Novices Chase for the young speed chasers saw GAELIC WARRIOR in a first time hood bidding to atone for a disastrous run at Leopardstown but facing a strong challenge from the likes of stable mate IL ETAIT TEMPS and contenders from both the Gordon Elliott and Henry de Bromhead yards.

    A hugely impressive win for GAELIC WARRIOR on whom the first time hood worked wonders. His jumping to the right at Leopardstown was replaced by a flawless round and he was just too good for these although his margin over IL ETAIT TEMPS wasn't much different to his superiority in the Faugheen at Limerick at Christmas. Nonetheless, the winner did this really well and we know 4000m won't bother him - post race Willie Mullins suggested he'd be campaigned over 3200m next season so a clash with EL FABIOLO and ENERGUMENE this time next year already looks on the cards. 

    FOUND A FIFTY ran perfectly well and as for IL ETAIT TEMPS once he learns how to jump an open ditch, he'll be a formidable adversary. He blundered at both ditches and that cost him valuable ground and momentum. MATATA ran a huge race for the locals and comprehensively reversed Lingfield form with JPR ONE. HUNTERS YARN didn't seem to enjoy the occasion while the ground had gone against MY MATE MOZZIE.

    With CONSTITUTION HILL out of the picture and LOSSIEMOUTH in the later Mares Hurdle, STATE MAN was a very strong favourite for the Champion Hurdle. IRISH POINT, who had won over 3100m at Christmas, looked his most serious rival on paper.

    Simplicity itself as Paul Townend rode STATE MAN with huge confidence and made this look very comfortable. I'm not sure the horse really enjoyed the ground but he's a class act and the idea of him and CONSTITUTION HILL clashing at Punchestown has many salivating over here. It may just be two of the greatest hurdlers of any era are around at the same time and if this is to be a reprise of Arkle vs Mill House from the 1960s, so be it.

    IRISH POINT kept trying all the way up the hill and it may be, given he's in the same ownership as TEAHUPOO, he'll be kept to the shorter trips for now but he's a future Stayers Hurdle winner without doubt on this evidence. LUCCIA ran a huge race for the beleaguered Henderson yard in third and while the prize money for third was welcome, I wonder if they fancy a tilt at the Mares next year if, as I suspect, LOSSIEMOUTH is allowed to take on STATE MAN and CONSTITUTION HILL and that's another potential clash to savour.

    LOSSIEMOUTH was allowed the "easier" option of the Mares Hurdle this year and was strongly backed in to 8/13 with her main opponent looking to be stable companion ASHROE DIAMOND.

    A treble for Paul Townend and Willie Mullins as LOSSIEMOUTH did exactly what you would have expected. With ASHROE DIAMOND too free in front and wilting before the straight, it was left to the outsider TELMESOMETHINGGIRL to chase home the winner at a respectful distance. LOSSIEMOUTH is a class act and she'll be even better next season but she'll have to be to take on the likes of STATE MAN and CONSTITUTION HILL.

    Henry de Bromhead managed a 2-3-4 with his three runners to cap what was a decent day for the Irish trainer.

    The Grade 2 National Hunt Chase saw a commanding display from CORBETTS CROSS for whom the trip and ground were ideal. EMBASSY GARDENS was let down by some poor jumping especially at the second last where he made a right horlicks. The vet reported an irregular heart beat which wouldn't have helped but I think he needs better ground. The winner is being talked about as a future National or Gold Cup prospect and the application of a hood seemed to help him concentrate. He's only rated 150 currently though he'll go up from this and he really needs to be in the high 160s or low 170s to be in the Gold Cup mix but next season could see him progress much further.

    In the Prestbury Cup, the Irish established a commanding 6-1 lead with only one of the handicaps staying the British side of the Irish Sea. 

  17. Succinctly put, my friend.

    I don't know if Trackside is showing the ITV coverage or the RUK coverage. The former is fronted by Ed Chamberlin and on Tuesday had Sir Anthony McCoy, Mick Fitzgerald and Megan Nicholls (daughter of Paul) on the podium, Ruby Walsh doing the analysis, Alice Plunkett (married to William Fox-Pitt) doing the paddock inspection and immediate post-race interveiew with the winning jockey, Matt Chapman doing pre and post race paddock interviews, Rishi Persad doing pre race interviews and talking to the beaten jockeys after the Grade 1 races (that provides real insight by the way as to why a horse didn't win).

    Brian Gleeson is in the betting ring and held a £50,000 win bet on STATE MAN at 2/5 (profit of £20,000 on the win) - the bet looks like my usual bets but with many more zeroes...

    Richard Hoiles is up in the commentary box which looks like a barbecue pit (they once did a skit where he was getting lunch for the team ready). 

    Oli Bell covers what they call the "social stable" (basically social media content) and Sally Ann Grassick covers the breeding/bloodstock angle.  

    Finally, Luke Harvey (an ex-jockey known as "Leglock Luke") is down at the start looking at the final moments of preparation for the race and picking up on any horses getting agitated (not so relevant here as at flat meetings).

    That's a big team and a big cost together with a multitude of cameras including drones and zip wires from a paddock position next to the trophy presentation.

    They also do, apart from the 3.5 hour afternoon coverage. a 90 minute morning preview programme called "The Opening Show".

    RUK will be on a much smaller scale with, I imagine, Nick Luck and Lydia Hislop presenting, Gina Mangan covering the Irish angles and they'll simply take the racecourse commentary from whoever is on duty = possibly Ian Bartlett or John Hunt I'd guess.

  18. Plenty to report from Cheltenham even before we review yesterday's races.

    The cross country steeplechase has been abandoned because of waterlogging but the overall ground has improved back to Soft, Heavy in Places (3.9 on the penetrometer) following 12 mm of rain yesterday but more is forecast tomorrow and into Friday though the races on Thursday and Friday are on the unused New Course which has a pentrometer of 4.0. 

    After some disappointing runs yesterday, Nicky Henderson has taken out JONBON from today's Champion Chase leaving EL FABIOLO 2/7 and EDWARDSTONE 13/2 with money for CAPTAIN GUINNESS now on offer at 8s. Henderson has also scratched SHISHKIN from Friday's Gold Cup of which more in a moment.

    Three more championship races on the final day starting with the Triumph Hurdle for the 4-y-o over 3400m. Henderson has kept SIR GINO in the race though with obvious concerns over the stable's well being his price has drifted from 6/4 to 9/4. Willie Mullins, fresh from STATE MAN's win in the Champion and having the first five home in today's Gallagher (more of both in later contributions) has half the fourteen strong field. He had the 1-2-3 in the Spring Juvenile Hurdle at the Dublin Festival and all three run here. The filly KARGESSE won that day despite not having the clearest of runs but STORM HEART may be the one on his occasion. MAJBOROUGH was jhaving his debut hurdles run and got tired approaching the last and plenty think he will improve past his too stable companions but I'm not convinced.

    Another interesting Mullins winner is SALVATOR MUNDI who has only run once, in France, when chasing home none other than SIR GINO at Auteuil. If he's that good and can reproduce it first time up, 10s is real value. The other strong British challenger is the unbeaten SALVER and he was a convincing winner of the Grade 2 Finale at Chepstow at Christmas. He'll love the ground and is worth an each way play at 14s.

    The Albert Bartlett for the staying novice hurdlers over 4790m has 15 runners. Lawlor's winner READIN TOMMY WRONG is favourite and you'd think a further 800m wouldn't be an issue based on his win on heavy ground at Naas. Mullins has just the five in this including DANCING CITY who won the Nathaniel Lacy over 4400m at Leopardstown and is another who seems to be a relentless galloper. CAPTAIN TEAGUE was third in last year's Champion Bumper and won the Challow at Christmas - that's strong form and while on the numbers he has a little to find Nicholls has always spoken highly of this one. The unbeaten types GIDLEIGH PARK and HIGH CLASS HERO have plied their trade in lower grade events and I'm not convinced either of them is up to this.

    For me, this price stays at home with CAPTAIN TEAGUE.

    Twelve go in the Gold Cup - five British versus seven Irish. GALOPIN DES CHAMPS bids to follow up last year's success and he looked very good at Leopardstown both at Christmas and in the Irish Gold Cup at the Dublin Festival. I think he'll have too much stamina for FASTORSLOW over this 5250m in likely deep ground. GERRI COLOMBE was 23 lengths behind GALOPIN DES CHAMPS at Christmas and that looks a lot to find. HEWICK would be a fairytale winner but he was fortunate in the King George at Christmas - he'll be one of three or four staying on at the end but will they be able to get back at GALOPIN DES CHAMPS?

    On then to the home defence - BRAVEMANSGAME was second in this last year but I think that run bottomed him as he's not performed to the same form level this season. L'HOMME PRESSE is the top rated having won the Brown Advisory last year. He was no match for the course specialist PIC D'ORHY at Ascot last time and I'm not wholly convinced. CORACH RAMBLER won the Grand National last year and this is arguably the best trial for that race. He was a fine third in the Betfair at Haydock four months ago but I'm not sure really heavy ground suits. One it will suit is Welsh National winner NASSALAM who came home in a Chepstow quagmire by 34 lengths. If it gets really heavy, 33s won't last and he's a knocking each way bet.

    Selections (Day Four):

    Triumph Hurdle: SALVER (each way)

    Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle: CAPTAIN TEAGUE

    Gold Cup: GALOPIN DES CHAMPS (NASSALAM each way if Heavy)

  19. Those hoping for reasonable ground at Cheltenham were disappointed as an unexpectedly large 12 mm of rain fell overnight and into this morning with the ground changing to Heavy, Soft in places after the second race.

    It's proper mudlark ground, arguably the softest (or heaviest) for many years.

    The extent to which it will influence running plans and betting remains to be seen.

    However, we have the final declarations for Thursday to consider - these races will be run on the New Course where the ground is likely to be better than the Old course.

    The card opens with the Turners Novices Chase over 3960m for the intermediate novices. 11 have been declared and it looks another trappy puzzle. The home challenge looks very strong but the Irish have the favourite in FACILE VEGA but it's fair to say his limitations have been exposed over fences but I think he has been crying out for a step up from 3200m. Nonetheless, his form consists of heavy defeats in both Grade 1 novice chases in Ireland over the shorter trip, the Paddy's Rewards at Christmas and the Irish Arkle last month. In January 2023 at Warwick, GREY DAWNING beat GINNY'S DESTINY over 4200m in a Grade 2 hurdle but fences have brought them closer and when they met in December at Cheltenham over 4000m on the Old Course, GINNY'S DESTINY was three parts of a length the superior.

    GREY DAWNING is no mug over fences and won well over 4800m at Warwick making me think the Brown Advisory was his target but perhaps the softer ground has tempted the Skeltons to go for the shorter trip. I'm sure there will be little between them but I just prefer GINNY'S DESTINY on the strength of his strong course form. IROKO could be the joker in the pack - he won the conditional jockeys handicap at the Festival last year and then ran a fine fourth at Aintree. His chasing debut at Warwick in the autumn of 2023 was full of promise but he was then sidelined due to injury. If he's back to his best, he'll be a lot fresher than some of these and his jumping looked flawless on his debut but will obviously be tested here.

    At a bigger price, LETSBECLEARABOUTIT from the Gavin Cromwell is worth a second look at 25s.

    11 also go in the Ryanair Chase over the same 3960m trip but for the more experienced chasers. Contrary to what many thought, this is another strong and open race. Ten of the runners are rated between 156 and 166 which is top class. ENVOI ALLEN won this last year and he has been laid out for this since a narrow defeat by GERRI COLOMBE in the Champion Chase at Down Royal last November. I'm not convinced really heavy ground suits. STAGE STAR won the Turners last year and is the favoured of the home team but while he's shown good form at Cheltenham he was poor on Trials Day when pulling up and I'm not convinced he's improved.

    He was a long way behind BANBRIDGE at Aintree in the Melling Chase last year and the latter is a horse of which I'm a big fan. He's one of the best jumpers I've seen for many years but his best form is on sharper, flatter tracks and on better ground so reluctantly I pass him over this time. PROTEKTORAT is fascinating back in trip and for me he's the each way call at 12s. He's mixed it with some very good types but he runs like a horse crying out for a shorter trip these days.

    On a rare day with no strong favourites in the championship races, the Stayers Hurdle over 4780m is perhaps the most interesting race of the day. `13 go topost with TEAHUPOO around 2/1 favourite. He was a close third to SIRE DU BERLAIS and is a dual winner of the Hatton's Grace at Fairyhouse. Heavy ground would be a plus and perhaps this will be his day. CRAMBO won the Long Walk at Ascot on Good ground - he has some heavy ground form but I need to be convinced this stamina test on slow ground will be ideal.

    The race is made all the more by some ex-chasers trying their hand over the smaller obstacles. SIR GERHARD was once thought of as a Gold Cup type after winning the Ballymore in 2022 but it didn't go well for him over fences and he looked much happier back over the smaller obstacles at Punchestown last time. NOBLE YEATS won the 2022 National and was carrying 15 lbs more when a fine fourth to CORACH RAMBLER last April but in an attempt to keep his chasing mark, they've reverted to hurdles and he won the Cleeve at the Trials meeting. I'm not convinced he likes heavy ground but the one thing we know he does is stay.

    FLOORING PORTER won this in 2021 and 2022 and was fourth last year - they also tried fences with him but it hasn't really worked and he's back over hurdles. He'd be fine with Soft ground but I'm sceptical about him on a heavy surface. The veterans include the likes of SIRE DU BERLAIS, CHAMP and PAISLEY PARK but the one who catches my eye at 33s is DASHEL DRASHER who will enjoy the ground.

    11 go in the Grade 2 Mares Novice Hurdle over 3400m.This looks booked for Ireland with JADE DE GRUGY preferred (but only marginally) to BRIGHTERDAYSAHEAD.

    Selections (Day 3):

    Turners Novices Chase:  GINNY'S DESTINY

    Ryanair Chase:  PROTEKTORAT (each way)

    Stayers Hurdle: DASHEL DRASHER (each way)

  20. Final declarations are through for the second day of Cheltenham where the ground remains Soft.

    On first look, it seems the second day has suffered because of decisions taken by Irish trainers to run different horses in the shorter races possibly because of the fear of sticky ground.

    The opening Gallagher Novices Hurdle over 4200m has just eight runners and five come from the Willie Mullins stable. Competitive it isn't with BALLYBURN the 1/2 favourite and clear top rated. His win over 4000m, albeit in a Leopardstown maiden hurdle, was hugely impressive and he showed he wasn't short of speed when coming back to 3200m and dishing out a seven length beating to SLADE STEEL at the Dublin Racing festival. ILE ATLANTIQUE was beaten when favourite in the Lawlor's while PREDATORS GOLD was second in the Nathaniel Lacy suggesting perhaps this might be short enough and the Albert Bartlett might have been a better option.

    The unbeaten HANDSTANDS beat JANGO BAIE last time but the latter couldn't win a weak Grade 2 at Kelso so the form doesn't look strong enough in this grade. BALLYBURN looks a real prospect and is going to take a lot of stopping.

    The Brown Advisory for the staying novice chasers has cut up to just six runners. It's a small but select group with the lowest rated at 140. FACT TO FILE had an easy time at Leopardstown with GAELIC WARRIOR disappointing in their match race but he jumped very well and has a favourite's chance for all this will be much tougher. STAY AWAY FAY won the Albert Bartlett last year and has made a strong transition to chasing. He was third in the Cotswold at the trials meeting at the end of January but that was in open company against experienced geldings on the fringes of Gold Cup class. A repeat of that puts him right in this.

    AMERICAN MIKE was well beaten in the Faugheen but up to 4800m looked much better in a Grade 2 at Naas last time but will have to improve again. GIOVINCO is a horse I really like but he's held by STAY AWAY FAY on Sandown form and he can miss the odd fence which you simply can't do in this grade. I think this might be one for the home team with STAY AWAY FAY.

    The Champion Chase is the feature of the afternoon for the speed chasers over 3180m. Eight go which is good news for each way players but the front three look well ahead of the others on all known form. EL FABIOLO beat JONBON in last year's Arkle and for all both have gone on we ll in open company the fact remains the former has the edge. His win in the Dublin Chase was very good while JONBON, despite having won the Tingle Creek, threw in a poor run at Cheltenham last time and with significant clouds over the Henderson yard, I'm more interested in EDWARDSTONE. He was beaten miles in this last year and was well held by JONBON in the Schloer and the Tingle Creek and moving him up to 4000m at Christmas was a disaster.

    A rethink by connections led to new tactics and in the Game Spirit at Cheltenham he was allowed to lead and jumped brilliantly coming home 40 lengths ahead. IF EDWARDSTONE gets to the front and jumps with the verve he showed at Newbury, EL FABIOLO is going to have a race. 8s is an each way bet to very little but jockey Tom Cannon will need a brave man's ride especially up the final hill which might just be the problem. I'm looking forward to a thriller and hopefully rhe magnificant sight of jumpers in their prime winging the fences.

    The Champion Bumper has 24 runners - Willie Mullins runs nine, Gordon Elliott just the three. I'll be honest - I don't have a scooby (sorry @scooby3051). Bumper races are usually a dawdle and then a 600m sprint and that's especially true of Irish bumpers but Cheltenham usually means an end-to-end gallop. Mullins's best has missed the gig so it's 5s the field. The highest rated and one of the more experienced is YOU OUGHTA KNOW and he's my idea of a possible winner (along with about 15 others).

    Selections - Day Two:

    Gallagher Novices Hurdle: BALLYBURN

    Brown Advisory Chase: STAY AWAY FAY

    Champion Chase: EDWARDSTONE (each way)

    Champion Bumper: YOU OUGHTA KNOW (each way) 

  21. The final fields are through for the first day of the Cheltenham Festival 2024. 7mm of rain overnight into Sunday morning has turned the ground back to Soft but with the going stick at 5.6 I reckon it's not far Good to Soft.

    The opening Supreme Novices Hurdle over 3250m has twelve runners. Nine of the twelve are trained in Ireland so it should be a good start for the visitors in the Prestbury Cup challenge which will have added bite following the dramatic conclusion to the rugby at Twickenham yesterday. It's a trappy race with plenty of contenders. Paul Townend, the Mullins stable jockey, rides TULLYHILL who, after being turned over at 1/8 on his debut hurdle run over 4200m has found his form back at the shorter trip winning at Naas and Punchestown. It's not strong form and he's yet to really have a race.

    Current favourite is stable companion MYSTICAL FLYER who was a facile winner of a Grade 2 at Punchestown last time. Lack of experience may be an issue but there's undoubtedly plenty of talent. FIREFOX has arguably the best form having beaten BALLYBURN (likely to win the Gallagher on Wednesday) in a maiden at Fairyhouse but he was well held in the Lawlor's at Naas over 4000m. You'd be hoping the drop back in trip would bring some improvement.

    SLADE STEEL has twice been beaten seven lengths by BALLYBURN - once in a Bumper and last time in the Tattersalls at Leopardstown. He was well outpointed that day but the winner is exceptional and in a weaker race this puts him right in it.

    The main British challenger looks to be Rossington Main winner JERIKO DU REPONET but I wasn't impressed at Doncaster and the second and third, who subsequently fought out the finish to the Dovecote at Kempton, have swerved the race so the form isn't that strong.The ex-French MISTERGIF may be the third Mullins horse in the betting but I think he has a big chance - he beat trees at Limerick but is completely unexposed. 

    This isn't a strong renewal with little Grade 1 form on offer - I'm not playing in the race but my idea of the winner is FIREFOX though I think MISTERGIF could outrun his odds.

    The Arkle Challenge Trophy is for the speed novice chasers over 3180m. In some areas there's been a clear favourite but not this time. Ten go to post, six from Ireland and four from England. JPR ONE is the best of the home team but he was found out in the Henry VIII and for all he won the Lightning at Lingfield last time I'd be surprised if that was good enough in this race. IL ETAIT TEMPS beat FOUND A FIFTY a neck in the Irish Arkle and there's basically nothing between them on form. I think the places will be confirmed but I could easily be wrong. Favourite is GAELIC WARRIOR who won the Faugheen at Limerick over Christmas but was very disappointing in the Ladbrokes at Leopardstown and I'm not convinced this is his trip.

    QUILIXIOS was beaten miles when tried over 4800m and won a small race back at his trip. He was a decent hurdler but I'm not convinced over fences. The one I like at a price is MY MATE MOZZIE who comes here fresh not having run since Boxing Day at Leopardstown where he was beaten a length and a half by FOUND A FIFTY. That form puts him right in this and if the ground dries a bit more, he could surprise the favourites.

    Just eight go in the Champion Hurdle and with LOSSIEMOUTH waiting a year (probably wisely). STATE MAN is 10 lbs clear of the field and 4/11 to win. I can't see what's going to stop him - IRISH POINT may well prefer further having won over 4800m last time and both NOT SO SLEEPY and NEMEAN LION (the latter my idea of an each way place horse at 33s) might scrap for the minor money it really should be an easy afternoon's work for the favourite.

    Eleven go in the Mares Hurdle and LOSSIEMOUTH is 8/15 to follow up her Triumph Hurdle success of last year. She looked so good at the Trials meeting and while that was a Grade 2 that was against the geldings so back among her own gender she should be too strong. The 4000m will hold no fears and while ASHROE DIAMOND looked good at Doncaster, the form was dented when the third, GALA MARCEAU, was beaten at 2/7 at Punchestown last time. ECHOES IN RAIN has been getting further behind STATE MAN - five lengths in the Morgiana to fifteen lengths in the Irish Champion last time. To be fair, there's no STATE MAN in this field and I've backed her each way at 16s to follow home her stable companions.

    Just seven go in the Grade 2 National Hunt Chase for the Amateur Riders which in a nice touch carries the name of the late matriarch of the Mullins family, Maureen, the mother of Willie Mullins who died last month at the age of 94. Willie runs CORBETTS CROSS but her grandson Emmet may have the answer with EMBASSY GARDENS who looked a real stayer over 5000m at Naas and the extra 1000m here won't be a problem.

    Selections - Day One:

    Supreme Novices Hurdle: FIREFOX

    Arkle Challenge Trophy: MY MATE MOZZIE

    Champion Hurdle: STATE MAN

    Mares Hurdle: ECHOES IN RAIN (each way)

  22. You're both right. 

    We're still 13 hours behind you - our clocks don't change to our summer time for another two or three weeks.

    Trackside 2 are starting coverage from 2am on Wednesday morning which would be 1pm on Tuesday afternoon with us. Not sure if you'll be getting the ITV feed (ITV can only show the first five races each day under contract) or RUK (which will have all seven). Given the coverage ends at 6.45am I reckon you'll see every race so good if you've signed up.

  23. He's a real character and the story will make a great movie if HEWICK wins the Gold Cup.

    Can he? Yes of course - he was arguably fortunate to win the King George but the one thing the horse does is stay. The problem is they go a merciless gallop in a Gold Cup and he tried to lay up with that last year and was beaten when falling two out.

    In the King George, they went hard and he benefitted from the collapse of the front runners when SHISHKIN stumbled and unseated two out.

    My suspicion is they'll try to ride him colder this year and hope he can run on up the hill - probably alongside CORACH RAMBLER - but it may be they'll be too far back to bother the principals.

    7 mm of overnight rain and the ground at Prestbury Park is back to Soft.