TARANTULA

IF THIS SALE IS A SURPRISE TO THE HRNZ BOARD OR MANAGEMENT THEN THEY HAVE NOT HAD THEIR FINGERS ON THE PULSE OF THE INDUSTRY………….SAD.

To put it simply,  disaster but what would you expect when we do nothing to promote ownership. 

Nothing unusual about that re HRNZ, a rudderless ship run by - make your own adjective up.
They cant even sort out a new CEO 

GOOD MORNING.THANKS JOHN FOR OUR RACING ENTERTAINMENT.SCORING SHOULD GET EASIER .
SCONE R2 ….FUSAICHI FAMILY
SCONE R3…..PENSATIVA
HAPPY PUNTING EVERYONE.

126 and 101 

Te Rapa. R5. Turn The Ace
Trentham. R6. Far Site (joker )
Will be lucky if I'm still afloat by end of day, maybe next time try Tarantulas slow but safe approach🤣

Absolutely go the Nix!!  Should be a great occasion - results will be posted a bit late tonight.
I wonder how many yellow cards in the match??

GOOD MORNING.THANKS TO JOHN FOR ANOTHER SATURDAY OF ENTERTAINMENT.THANKS TO SCOOBY TO PROVIDE THE PLATFORM FOR THIS.
WAS GOING NEW PLYMOUTH AND ROTORUA BUT IN THE END WENT FOR JOCKEY….ZAC SPAIN…..CAULFIELD.
CAULFIELD RACE 5   KILLOURNEY
CAULFIELD RACE 9.  VARDANI
HAPPY PUNTING EVERYONE.

There has been plenty of comment made already about the peculiar decision to add so many extra race meetings from August this year at the 3 North Island venues where the horse shortage is  critical and the relative punter interest is relatively low.A like for like meeting in the North Island will invariably deliver turnover and return to industry 10 to 20% less than one in the South Island. If anyone doubts these metrics they are welcome to compare for example similar non-feature race days at Addington vs Alexandra Park, Cambridge vs Southland, Manawatu vs Timaru or Oamaru. CeeMeNow has done good ongoing analysis on this issue in other threads using the raceday performance information which HRNZ to their credit continue to provide on their website. So now that HRNZ have supported Entain in adding all these meetings to our poorest venues for returns to the industry there are two obvious actions to expect them to address in their strategy revision this month:
1. Will they rebalance their stakes subsidy policies to ensure the venues that generate the worst local and export turnover/ gross betting revenue are no longer subsidised at current levels by the rest of the industry which is the only way they are able to pay currently scheduled similar stakes nationwide? The most obvious example of this is Manawatu, where every race in their 12 meetings in 2023/24 required a c.$7500 subsidy from HRNZ over and above the income earned from betting on each race. On what possible basis is that either fair or good business sense? A similar meeting at Timaru or Oamaru required a subsidy of only c. $2,000 per race over the same period, so surely going forwards HRNZ should be benchmarking like for like clubs and racedays and aligning subsidies accordingly. On that basis alone they would fairly redirect several million dollars each season to the region and races where the revenue has been generated, Canterbury.
2. Assuming this first issue is dealt with by HRNZ, surely the next step is to realign the hadicapping rules so that in particular the rating points penalties applied to race wins make reference to the stake won given there would (and should) be a substantial differential in the stakes paid at Manawatu vs Timaru as an example. It's clearly fair and reasonable to expect Manawatu meetings to carry lower penalties for race winners when they would pay stakes a third to a half less than a venue in South Canterbury/ North Otago as an example. 
If Addington is willing to sacrifice turnover and betting returns in the short term to support the new dual meetings initiative with Alexandra Park on Friday night we can only hope they also are not required to further cross subsidise the northern venue whilst this new initiative is trialled. The current relative difference would already justify Addington and thus Canterbury owners and trainers having at least $3000  per race redirected to their stakes from those at Alexandra Park.But right now that may be the lesser issue. It's more critical for HRNZ supported by Addington to fix the enormous imbalance nationally in funding of the R55 and below races between the North Island and South Island (excluding Southland), and then re-align the handicapping points penalty system accordingly. The owners attending the annual event at Addington this Friday would lilely be a more positive bunch if they knew HRNZ was committed to sorting this out and paying them the stakes money that both their investment and the support of punters nationwide justifies.    

Week 2 results
Arjay and Joan eliminated, and another 9 entrants down to their final life.
Littletramp continues to lead the way, with a group of three not far behind.  19 of the 46 who remain have yet to pick a winner.
Tarantula having set a record last week for the lowest weekly score (without picking a winner), broke that record this week and has now picked 4 losers at an average win dividend of over $100.
 

Tarantula playing the long game  

Kapiti Coast                      LOSS  $60,735
Wairarapa                         LOSS  $20,049
Hawera                              LOSS  $135,531
Manawatu                        LOSS  $722,474
Cambridge                       LOSS  $384,225
Auckland                         LOSS  $1,865,184
TOTAL                            LOSS    $3,188,198              This season, up to Cambridge 12th April                 
Clearly it is ridiculous to give additional races to Manawatu and Auckland without addressing the cause of the losses, you have to question the ability of the Harness Racing NZ board.
From the 1st of March to the 3rd of May there were 143 races in the North Island, ATC 7 meetings and 64 races, Cambridge 5 meetings and 45 races, and Manawatu 4 meetings and 34 races.
Of the 143 races only 12%{17} had 12 or more starters,  32% (45)  had 7 or less starters, with the remaining 56% (81) being 8-11 starters per race.  Some of these races benefitted from the inclusion of South Island and Australian horses, with only 12% of the fields having 12 or more starters it is hard to conclude that there are many, if any, horses that are not getting a start, so the huge increase in races is only going to reduce the already low field size even more, further reducing punter interest and participation.

THANK YOU JOHN FOR YOUR TIME AND EFFORTS FOR THIS  ENTERTAINING COMPETITION.
3200 m TRUE STAYERS EVENT.HEAVY GOING.1ST WEEK RESULTS.
HUGE TOP FIELD.DREW WIDE.TAKEN BACK TO REAR OF POSITIVE RESULTS.PERFECT POSITION .TOTE SAYS YES.
TRIED TO STAY ANONYMOUS BUT MENTIONED IN DISPATCHES BY EAGLE EYE …SAY NO MORE.
RUNNERS CHANCES
RICCARTON RACE 6……….FIVE PRINCES.
RICCARTON RACE 8……….ECCELLENZA.
THANKS.

Doubles: next casualty?

Would be nice of Entain to give us a list of what has gone rather than leaving it to a thousand cuts as everyone slowly works it out

North Island Clubs, figures from the last Performance Update;
Kapiti Coast       race days - 1    races  7      Starters 69     avg fld size 9.9        Stakes $91,115      GBR   $37,293          Funding  $98,028
Wairarapa                             - 1            - 6                       69                          11.5                   $76,360                  $75,915                          $95,964
Hawera                                 - 2            -21                    224                          10.7                    $269,718               $164,574                        $300,105
Manawatu                           -12           -92                    780                           8.5                      $1,030,644           $543,230                       $1,265,704
Waikato BOP                      -21           -181                  1644                         9.1                     $4,010,016            $2,105,811                    $2,487,036
ATC                                     -21            -188                  1592                         8.5                     $3,831,313             $2,539,656                   $4,404,840
I see Red   I see Red   I see Red
What can we do about it?
I know, we will give them another 34 race meetings, including 216 more races for Auckland and Cambridge, and not forgetting Manawatu, they are going so well we will give them another 7 meetings.
What a cunning plan, worthy of Blackadder!

Congratulations Crystal Hackett for her first G1 win aboard Mach Shard in the time-honoured Taylor Mile. Hackett got the $151 shot home with a withering burst on the outside of the track. It looked like she had the only dry patch on the track as she soared home while those near the rail floundered. It was a strange race and I don't know what to make of it? Alexandra Park is terrible, again horses were bogged down in the passing lane. Merlin should have bolted in with the run it got but he could not make headway up the lane. Something has to be done about the passing lane there.
Just Believe bolted in again. I'd like to give a shot out to trainer Jess Stubbs. She has got both Just Believe and Bettor Eclipse primed for the NZ trip. Just Believe looks unbeatable at the moment. Better Eclipse always draws poorly so he had no luck in latest races. 

HRNZ's press release on the new calendar said 1. "our horse population is heavily skewed to the lower to middle grade horse.. and the new calendar... will open up many more opportunities ... especially in the upper North Island", and 2. "The calendar represents a 20% increase in race meetings.. focussing on northern meetings with commitments from Addington and Southland".
The "elephants in the room" is that these statements said nothing about the fact that an increasing portion of that total horse population are trained and raced everywhere in New Zealand escept the North Island, and generally when those horses race in lower and middle grade races across the South Island the industry makes money from that racing- the betting revenue earned exceeds the stakes subsidies HRNZ pays for that meeting. That doesn't happen in the North Island, where every race today requires a c. $3000 top up in stakes from surplus revenue earned in the South Island. Nobody appears willing to address the obvious fact that the venues and product put up for punting customers in the North Island just isn't good enough to attract their interest in the 21st century world of wall to wall digital and online gambling offers. Why will adding c. 20% more offers of an inferior product out of the North Island change any of this, and won't it arguably make the harness racing product look even more inferior to other racing offers, and just get even closer to greyhounds as an off peak / filler product for punters?
When those lower and middle class horses HRNZ reference race at most venues in the South Island, where all the "surplus" horse population is currently domiciled , they deliver more betting revenue, so why not add the new meetings next year to tracks such as Timaru, Rangiora, Ashburton and Methven, even Addington! It's interesting that HRNZ reference the "commitments of Addington and Southland", where overall betting revenue earned doesn't create any substantial surplusa to fund stakes subsidies. But it makes no mention of all the other South Island harness racing venues, and all the owners and trainers in Canterbury who are the true harness racing participants making a commitment to this venture. Unless the stakes subsidy model is fixed by HRNZ in their announcement of the new industry strategy next month, the siphoning off of millions of $ every year from the Canterbury recing community to fund racing especially in the North Island will continue, and the cost to Canterbury may increase. In 4 more years the re-alignment when Entain's commitment period ends under this calendar structure will likely be truly painful for everyone. 
 

There are none so blind as those who cannot see. CMN provides real data for those who understand betting and industry returns, ie, stakes,
Just imagine if he was in a prominent HRNZ role  as opposed to the muppets running the place in the last 2 decades

18 lives lost so far with both Arjay and Joan picking two winners.
Crusty setting the early pace with 136 points earned today.
Tarantula taking a slow and steady approach, setting a new LGL record, with 2.23 points earned from two beaten runners (one paid $71 and the other $121).

All good Maria, I don't check the race numbers as I input them, but I go with the horse's name and I know which one you meant so your pick stands.

47 entries in week 1.  Picks as follows:
 



 
 

THANK YOU JOHN FOR ANOTHER COMPETITION TO KEEP US ENTERTAINED FOR WEEKS.        STAYERS EVENT IN WINTER CONDITIONS, OVER 3200m
CAULFIELD R1 SOOBOOMA
ROSEHILL   R4 CROP DUSTER 
THANKS AGAIN JOHN AND SCOOBY.
 
 
 
 

In North America, the big tracks like Mohawk and Meadowlands all have at least two Jackpot betting options at each meeting, often with 50c or even 20c per combination bet, their punters love them, and the higher the jackpot goes the more money follows.
Lotto now has $4m starting Jackpot, they are hoovering up the cash, if the Jackpot is struck on a Saturday, it only takes 18 days for the Jackpot to reach $10m, or 17 if struck on a Wednesday.
Punters want to win life changing amounts of cash, particularly when times are tough, if racing does not provide that option, it loses.
 

STAND LOOKS A BIT BIG FOR AUCKLAND TROTTING CLUB , BUT GOOD THAT WE ARE PLANNING FOR THE DREAM OF INCREASING ATTENDANCE.