RaceCafe..#1...Tipsters Thread.... Share Your Fancies For Fun...Lets See Who The Best Tipsters Here Are.

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  1. 1 hour ago, La Zip said:

    I've got two Bruce, both with Kiwi trainers, they can both run, trialled up well, one raced fair but need time, shown enough to go again....the other trialled very well, form around him is turning into strong black type.....but their Kiwi trainers have more than two clues you see.......many have no idea, subsequently the sires stock suffer greatly......but that's life unfortunately in a 3rd world jurisdiction.

    I do agree with your comments for sure , but then again the stock have to do he job, no room for excuses in this game.

    Are you affiliated with Super Easy? Or just a believer?

  2. Was a super 3yo miler winning 3 G1 Mile races.

    By a super stallion in Invincible Spirit and has good blood through damlines (Montjeu/Machiavellian)

    Personally was not impressed by his yearlings that sold as an overall group, lacked a bit of scope and quite plain (but there were some out of good mares that sold well), has made a solid start in the UK (never means much though)

    In the last 2 years has only served 60/70 mares so hasnt been supported much after a decent sized first book.

    A super racehorse with good bloodlines, will be following his progeny with interest.

  3. NZ Record is horrendous especially when taking out Prom Queen.

    Prom Queen did a super job as a 2yo and 3yo but without her:

    21 runners (that have had a total of 98 starts) for 2 winners and a total of $53,530 (from 98 starts), 9.5% winners to runners in NZ without Prom Queen in the mix

    In Australia has had the 6 runners for 5 winners, none yet at black type level but 4 of the 5 have been city performers.

    So obviously can leave a handy'ish' horse but a whole lot of rubbish!, the majority of the handy ones are for whatever reason are in Australia

    Overall stats are only very ordinary 32 runners to race for 28% winners to runners, 3% Stakes winners to runners. he has been well supported and got good numbers so no excuses for a stallion at his level, some work to do and likely that his numbers served will continue to decrease as they have tended to over the years

     

  4. 1 hour ago, Louise said:

    He was passed in as a yearling through Inglis for $140k with a reserve of $160k -  I'm pretty sure we can reel off countless Stallions with million dollar race records who've failed at stud good luck to them.

    Just read that he was a $90,000 yearling purchase (NZ Thoroughbred Breeder's press release) so may have been privately. Of course you can just "getting a gage on the 'type of horse he is as he had such a low reserve for the way he is bred", the hardest thing will be getting mares, might serve a small book of mares probably owned by the owner of the stallion (he was a major shareholder) and good luck to him, he realistically is a private stallion.

    He is standing at a very low fee from which he deserves to, might get the odd winner and thats about all they would be hoping for.

    Stud vet fees and agistment are included in the $2,000 service fee so nearly standing for free

  5. He's by Redoute's Choice out of a G1 winning mare but to be fair it stops there, 

    21 starts and the only black type is a 2nd in a Dunedin Guineas, not exactly any race form!

    Why was he such a cheap yearling purchase? I think I read somewhere that was only $80,000 (for a Redoute's Choice colt out of a G1 winning mare), bad X-Rays?, ordinary type? would be interested to know.

  6. 3 hours ago, Huey said:

    Agree and as exciting as this stallion is, the Australians have this type of stallion in abundance already with Hellbent, Invader,Supido and Russian Revolution all going to stud this year fitting the bill, he certainly looks a go at his fee in NZ however.

    Would compare him to maybe Supido, the others look on a different page demand and appeal wise.

    Russian Revolution a dual G1 winner (by the leading sire Snitzel) and standing at over $50,000 , Invader by Australias current leading sire (Snitzel) and a G1 winner and Hellbent by the current 2nd position and in fashion sire (I Am Invincible) and also a G1 winner which is super important commercially.

     

     

  7. On 03/06/2018 at 10:21 AM, Swynford said:

     

    Incredibly close up inbreeding on both sides of the stallions pedigree.  Probably the most under valued part of the pedigree the mares bottom line. 

     

    masar.thumb.png.bb933fc5471a047ac7f736fcc511e246.png

     

    Grunt bred on a similar pattern (not quite as close) in terms of inbreeding to superior females.

    By O’Reilly and out of a mare that traces back to Hunza (O’Reillys family)

    Would love a NZ stud to make a play for him, the sons of O’Reilly are doing a job (Alamosa, Shamexpress, Sacred Falls to come)

  8. 1 hour ago, THE TORCH said:

    Makes you wonder about what is going on at Te Rapa. 
    They called for Neil Treweeks head a few years ago when on their precious Group 1 day some horses had to scout wide for better ground. Neil cant control the rain! Yet yesterday in the midst of winter we cant even get a surface right! Sand getting flicked back in copious amounts??!!! Really???!!! What instructions has the new caretaker had to obey to get to this farcical surface?

    The rain?, that f**k up was caused by the course manager overwatering and leaving the irrigation on!, not the rain!

    Unfortunately the track is in very bad shape and the sand addition was a patch up job and it hasnt worked, a tired track that needs some serious assistance!, not attempted patch up jobs.

  9. 17 minutes ago, WOODBINE said:

    Power’s Racing stats must compare favourably against Zacinto and he will probably receive a full book next season

    So the lesson is if you have a Power yearling or weaning you should race it

     

    Definitely a fair comparison, 2 young stallions doing a really good job early on, Power has scope to improve also as his current crop of weanlings has over 100 foals on the ground (nearly double than anyother crop)

    Zacinto has 5 stakes winners from only 57 runners 8.7% stakes winners to runners (including 2 in Australia), and running at 54% winners to runners early on so has made an excellent start particularly as it has been done of a low service fee in the South Island.

    Powers overall stats have been compromised from his shuttling record in IRE/UK

    But in NZ/AUS/SING Is 44 runners for 26 winners (59% winners to runners), and 3 stakes winners (6.8% stakes winners to runners), also has another 6 stakes placegetters to is running overall at 20% stakes performers to runners in NZ/AUS/SING which is a tremendous start.

  10. 50 minutes ago, Dibbles said:

    Like War Front (Claiborne Farm always seem to have nice stallions), also liked Sweet Orange but he did not seem get support while he was here.

    Comparing Hong Kong International Listed form to Irish Group form i guess and I believe the new boy has a much better pedigree.

    Sweet Orange now serving in QLD

  11. 1 hour ago, La Zip said:

    Of course that’s where they will end up.....you’ll be doing his job for him...no such thing as a free lunch! 

    Absoultely!

    Has stated that some will end up in China and some in NZ so you would have to expect that, but to be fair if you are breeding at a level and hoping/relying on a $10,000 deal where you woudnt be making much profit at all you cant be picky, we are talking low level!

  12. 11 minutes ago, Breeder said:

    War Decree looks like a worthy replacement. From the same very good female family as Postponed

    Lovely female line (Terlingua), War Decree's 5th dam (Chapel Of Dreams) is Postponed's 2nd dam from memory.

    War Decree was a very well performed 2yo that didn't really train on and wasn't of the standard required for the major races he was targeted towards (therefore his price), not training on has been a bit of a trait among the War Front progeny although in recent times Coolmore have had a bit of luck with his progeny as older horses (Declaration Of War, Roly Poly come to mind)

    Looks to have some nice credentials pedigree wise and race form wise and looks a nice type.

  13. War Decree has been announced to stand at Inglewood Stud as a replacement for Zacinto (Kevin Hickman heavily involved in the ownership also of this new stallion)

    A G2 and G3 winner by War Front out of a Street Cry mare, standing for $6,500

     

    Good luck to them, hope he can have the same success Zacinto has given them.

  14. 38 minutes ago, Huey said:

    This is interesting  might get a few small breeders back in the game

    https://www.odt.co.nz/sport/racing/incentive-breeders

     

    Interesting, depends what stage he will ‘buy’ these foals back?, as it woudnt be to much of a profit after you have paid the $3,000 + GST service fee, paid for vet bills, agistment, vet expenses, foaling fees, NZTR Stud book costs etc.

    But an effective way for him to get numbers on the ground of his stallion , foal numbers on the ground in the region in general, a way for breeders to get their dam’s progeny racing without their output (just hoping they dont go to China) and a bit of an ‘insurance policy’ for breeders.

  15. Zacinto has relocated to Valachi Down’s $15,000. Has made a super start at stud from a low fee and a South Island base with 5 stakeswinners already from only 50 or so starters.

    Do feel sorry for the South Island having recently lost 2 promising stallions in Zacinto and Highly Recommended that have made a super start from modest books.

  16. 1 hour ago, We're Doomed said:

    I find it interesting that it is somehow considered a demotion if a stallion gets sent from NZ to Australia.

    He is going from Cambridge Stud to Oakland's Stud in Queensland, not quite the Hunter Valley!.

    Looks like he is off the roster at Coolmore in Ireland so likely has been sold, did only shuttle to Cambridge Stud (not owned by Cambridge Stud)

  17. 6 minutes ago, optical said:

    Not too sure if the stallion lineup is more competitive, I remember when Sir T in his later days was competing against Star Way, Silver Dream, Famous Star, Kingdom Bay and a few others that elude my memory. I maybe misinterpreting your point of competitive now as in the service fees can be higher, but in terms of competition to proven stallions Savabeel is way on top  with Tavistock a long second and then Iffraaj? Stocks are bare... So proven stallions are more of a niche for mine. 

    Australian market more competitive as Australian performance of Savabeel was the target of this conversation.

  18. 1 hour ago, Nasrullah said:

    I agree with Bruce on the above but there is also something in the data that could tell us a but more.

    Sir Tristram - Average winning distance 1826m

    Zabeel - Average winning distance 1836m

    Savabeel - Average winning distance 1580m

    I feel that you can do better in Australia over more ground because you don't have to compeat against Australian speed. 

    My thoughts are that Savabeel has also served more ''faster bred mares'' (O'Reilly).

    New Zealand's broodmare band now has more speed compared to twenty years ago due to the injection of more speed stallions.

     

    Another very valid point, the Savabeel's may have served sharper mares as you have mentioned.

    3 great stallions that have stood in NZ, and so many more well bred Savabeel's to hit the track in the future (his recent book's have been amazing)

  19. 9 hours ago, Huey said:

    Don't you think Zabeel and Sir T , did it more in Aus than Savabeel has to date? He just doesn't appear to have had that may top liners like those two in Aus.

    Fair point on data but.....   I would suggest a much more competitive stallion market now, lack of truly dominant stallions (Snitzel the exception last couple of years, amazing seasons!), as well as the concept of shuttling stallions taking off more, another factor to take into consideration is that these top Australian stallions are serving 200-220 mares a season!, very hard to compete with that especially at distances 1600m and below.

    Savabeel has sired G1 winners of the Queen Elizabeth Stakes, Vinery Stakes, Turnbull Stakes, Queensland Oaks, Victoria Derby, Champagne Stakes, Queensland Derby so doing a very good job in Australia and all at a distance of at least 1600m.

    Other stats in Australia are 70% winners to runners and 8.2 stakes winners to runners, the game and the stallion market has changed so much since Sir Tristram's days, but does emphaisse what a remarkable job these stallions from the same line have done! )through in Lonhro now and Pierro into the future)