RaceCafe..#1...Tipsters Thread.... Share Your Fancies For Fun...Lets See Who The Best Tipsters Here Are.

themagicman

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Everything posted by themagicman

  1. Thanks for that Brodie. I agree that K Browne the driver of Christian Kiosk was very hard done by. I feel Butt was extremely fortunate to escape any consequences for his shocking drive. Any punter who had their hard earned on any of the first three favourites are all entitled to feel aggrieved at Anthony Butt. He managed to ensure the best three horses in the race and in the betting all failed to obtain their best potential result. Brent Lilley does have a few horses that can work and still be dominant. They will make any driver look good but one size does not fit all. If the actions of Anthony Butt were never going to result in him winning the race then why do what he did? Was he trying to give his drive a good blow out? Was he trying to teach that upstart K Browne a lesson for having the audacity to think he could get past one of our best ever drivers of trotters (Lyell creek,Take A Moment etc) ? I still believe Anthony is a very good driver. Not easy going against the big boys (and girls) in Victoria week in week out especially when you cut your teeth as a driver in NZ where they don't drive anything like what they do there. I believe had Anthony Butt pulled that stunt in a NZ race he'd be having a well earned stint stint on the sideline. K Browne on the other hand would have been seen as a victim of circumstance and been the one to get a free pass. What did the Victorian Stewards expect Browne to do on Christian Kiosk? Be a mind reader? Have a crystal ball? Not go forward? or drop back 100 metres off the leader when Butt surprisingly refused to accept cover? If he'd done the later he would have gone from a $4.60 shot to a $66 shot.
  2. As we are talking about two races on this thread old son,I'm not sure which race your question(s) pertain too? I'm picking Mark Purdon's drive on Lazarus in the Group One Cardigan Bay Stakes. First off let me pay respect to Mark. I admit to being somewhat in awe of the man. He manages to buy exactly the right horses to get the job done. He trains and conditions them in such a manner as to have them 100% ready at exactly the right moment. As a driver he is Mr Cool under pressure. Never panics or does anything that amounts to having a brain explosion in a race. He reads races perfectly so knows exactly where he needs to be at exactly the right moment. One of our best drivers who is underrated in that area in my opinion. Happily hands up the glory to Natalie Rasmussen and Tim Williams. To be fair not sure if Natalie is given the glory or takes it Mark has mentored Tim Williams so he can be one of our best drivers in the years to come. He's also superb with the media, giving up his time on the big race days when punters would love to hear his perspective to help their punting. That aside Mark does not have angel wings on his back and that's all I will say on that score. I'm not perplexed that Mark handed up the lead on Lazarus in the race in question. I'm perplexed that he gave the lead up without even a glimpse of a fight and he did so without even looking to see who he was handing up to. This is because he already knew as farce was a contrived game of musical chairs, Lazarus drew one in the group one. He got a soft easy lead. It's a 1700 metre race with a round to go and Mark gives up the from without even looking? First time that has occurred in the history of Mark Purdon. What did I want to see? Mark looking like he wants to retain the front as he would in any other group one in similar circumstances. When Natalie came calling on Chase The Dream at least look like you are at least 5% interested in retaining the premier position. Have a 100 metre duel for the front to at least make it "appear" to be a race. As Mark gifting the lead to Chase The Dream cost his drive the fav Lazarus victory I'd like questions to be asked about just what unfolded. They never were. I'm assuming the aggressive driver you're talking about is Natalie Rasmussen and not Anthony Butt? Natalie is a very astute driver. I have great respect for her skills. Having said that,it's uncanny how many times she has been gifted the front by another All Star runner. It's almost as if there is an understanding in place. If Natalie wants the front, just give it to her. That must give her great confidence. Natalie very rarely has a dig for the lead and not get it. Her drive on Messini behind Arden Rooney in the NZ Cup was a high profile exception but then Arden Rooney is no longer an All Star and Kerryn Manning was never going to do Natalie Rasmussen any favours in the NZ Cup.
  3. I find that staggering and am questioning my own knowledge of the game. Can someone else other than johnevens/johnryan please give their take on the three drives in the race. Race 3 at Melton on Monday 25th January. Gavin Lang on the runner up Save Our Pennys who was a warm fav. My take is he raced in a forward position from the draw as his pattern. Horse was fav due to solid form. Would have been shocked if Lang had handed up and give up the premier position. Was a solid run but was asked to do too much during the race by the parked horse and that told in the last 100 metres. Then we have K Browne (not a driver I know a lot about) on Christian Kiosk who was second fav. My take,He was back due to his draw. Could see the leader controlling the race from the top and knew he had no hope of being in the race from out the back. Could see there was no horse in the parked position outside Save Our Penny's. The first horse in the parked position was Anthony Butt on Kyvalley Barney who was about 6 to 8 lengths off Save Our Penny. As Christian Kiosk had begun well and there was no horse sitting parked he continued to go forward. To my eye it was a sensible move. The alternative was to sit back with no cover or drop back behind all the one wide line and find himself a mile off the leader and no hope. That would have negated all the advantage gained from beginning so well. As Christian Kiosk got closer to the parked position Anthony Butt on Kyvalley Barney kicked right up to retain the parked position directly outside the leader. K Browne on Christian Kiosk probably didn't expect that as Kyvalley Barney had sat parked from the start and most horses in a similar position would expect the parked horse to accept a bit of cover from a live chance. K Browne on Christian Kiosk was then stuck out in a hopeless position. If he does not press on he risks having a reputation as a soft cock who will withdraw from any lead battles as soon as another driver gives him the evil eye. As there is now a two wide line going back a fair distance Christian Kiosk can't drop back as that will give him 0% of being in the money as he will be a mile off the front runners. He does the only realistic thing open to him and presses on hoping common sense will apply with Anthony Butt who will hand up the parked position. That never occurred. Christian Kiosk had the opportunity to drop in behind Kyvalley Barney for a bit of cover in the last half but he was already not surprisingly beaten at that stage. K Browne on Christian Kiosk was a victim of an arrogant and belligerent drive by Anthony Butt on Kyvalley Barney. It staggers me that K Browne is the driver penalized and Anthony Butt gets a free pass. As for Butt's drive on 3rd fav Kyvalley Barney. My take. Horse was having it's second lifetime start. It's first start was almost five months ago on the 1st August 2015. Horse began well and was the first horse off the fence. Very unlikely he can sit there while the fave and leader just smokes his pipe in front. I expect he will either see if the lead is available or will look for cover. He did neither. As soon as K Browne on Christian Kiosk the second fav and a genuine winning chance came forward Butt started to kick up and refused to accept cover. He continued to refuse to hand up the parked position. This action negated the chances of second fav Christian Kiosk. It also negated his own winning chances. Butt now had 0% chance of beating Save Our Pennys unless Kyvalley Barney was actually Lyell Creek in disguise. He lost third by a nose to a $55 shot. The fav in front was run over in the straight to finish second behind a $14 winner who had sat quietly behind the first three and watched the madness unfold. I'm adamant Anthony Butt's "antics" cost the fav Save Our Pennys the victory. He cost the second fav Christian Kiosk any hope it had of finishing in the money and cost his own drive on the third fav at least third placing. Butt creates that result and escapes any and all consequence. Can someone else take a good look at the replay please and share your take. http://www.harness.org.au/meeting-results.cfm?mc=JH250116&ms=vic
  4. Yes my bad. Dream About Me and Chase The Dream both All Star 3 year old's. Memory not what it was. Too many dreams
  5. The hot fav in front is a front runner and was never going to hand up. Anthony Butt was never going to win from the parked position especially when he insisted on retaining that spot at all costs. Seeking cover was the prudent move or at least hanging back. I also prefer a speed duel than just gifting the leader soft sectionals and conceding the race from the very start but I also dislike negating the winning chances of three well fancied runners by insisting on retaining a position that under the circumstances will never result in a victory. He cost himself at least third placing. He cost the runner up the victory and cost the fifth placed horse a much higher placing. I don't see that as a positive outcome for what I consider a suicide drive. Frustrating to see the best three horses in the race all fail to achieve their best possible placing because of the actions of one driver. If Anthony Butt had just cost himself third I wouldn't have said anything.
  6. Sitting parked can be a very good place to control the race but not so if the pace is on. I think Anthony Butt is still a very good driver especially when he has the horse power but I have seen his driving style change in a way that probably suits Australia but does not suit here. I feel he made several judgment errors in the race quoted if his goal was to win the race. If however the goal was to get a good tough run under the belt then it was achieved. In NZ he seldom drove a shocker but not so in Australia.
  7. Not 100% sure Brodie. It would of course be madness for two stablemates to have a meaningful speed duel and both finish out of the money but stablemates assisting each other to dominate a race is hardly a level playing field. My main point here is that Mark Purdon has softly handed up to a stablemate after securing an easy lead from a good draw in a short distance race. We all know he would never do that to a non stablemate. I genuinely believe his action cost Lazarus the win. I backed Dream About Me myself so I'm not talking via my pocket. Horses handing up or not handing up can be a pain in the bum. I hate seeing a leader be gifted soft sectionals by it's rivals and then surprise surprise it kicks away on the turn and wins easily. That's hardly a race. Then you have drivers who don't appear to be driving to win. They pressure the leader and then cave in themselves. The leader then gets pipped late in the race. I like Anthony Butt as a driver but I felt he cost three horses their winning chance last night in Race 3 at Melton. I thought there were three main winning chances in the race. Hot fav Save Our Pennys,Chrisken Kiosk and Anthony's drive Kyvalley Barney. They were clearly the first 3 favs in the race Save Our Pennys was leading. Kyvalley Barney sat outside him from early on. Kyvalley Barney was not remotely interested in looking for cover. If he was, surely the horse to get cover behind would have been second fav Chrisken Kiosk when that runner came calling. Since when has sitting parked outside the hot fav for the entire race been the premier spot to be? Instead when Chrisken Kiosk inevitably came calling Butt refused to hand up the parked position. In doing so he was negating the winning chances of his own drive Kyvalley Barney and the horse he kept posted three wide Chrisken Kiosk. Pure madness. This action also kept the pressure on the leader who couldn't cop a breather. These first three favs were all forced to do considerably more work by the actions of one driver. Christian Kiosk ran fifth. Horse was crucified by the actions of Butt. Kyvalley Barney lost third on the line by a nose to an outsider who had done no work. Anthony Butt should have been charged with failing to obtain the best possible placing there. The hot fav Save Our Pennys was run over late by Wake Up Wilbur who'd sat behind them quietly watching Anthony Butt destroy the winning hopes of the three favourites in that race. Have not seen any Stewards reports on the race but in my opinion Anthony Butt deserves a stint on the sideline for his "drive" http://www.harness.org.au/meeting-results.cfm?mc=JH250116&ms=vic
  8. There's been a fair bit of chatter about stable driving on the site and resentment expressed toward the All Stars especially when they have multiple runners in age group classic races. I'm putting up an example of what I consider unmistakable stable driving that allowed the stable to dominate a feature race and determined the result. I will explain context etc to justify my perspective. Not only do I believe the race was contrived but it was done right under the nose of everyone and not a word was spoken. If indeed it is stable driving, what real hope do we have of Stewards ensuring the game is played on a level playing field etc? What hope do rival stables have when the best horses in the races are assisting each other to ensure they run one two? Imagine Mark Purdon is drawn one on the best horse in the 1700 metre Group One classic. Not only the best horse in the race but the best in his age group. Has had an enormous pardon the pun reputation from day one. His drive has excelled when leading so we expect dominating from the front is likely. He starts hot fav and as expected gets the lead very easily. Can you imagine a scenario where Mark Purdon would hand up the premier position with a round to go in a group one classic? Can you imagine Mark Purdon handed up the premier position without even a hint of a fight? Can you imagine Mark Purdon handing up softly without a fight to a non stablemate? His partner Natalie is on the second best horse in the race. Her drive is also a superb horse but not as good as Mark's drive. She is drawn five. Mark not only hands up to Natalie without any fight at all but incredibly does so without even bothering to look who he was handing up. Why? Because he knew EXACTLY who he was handing up to. Why? Because, as is my contention the race was nothing more than a contrived game of musical chairs to ensure they ran first and second and squeezed out any and all opposition from earning substantial prize money. These classic races of course are why most owners are in the game and pardon the pun again dream about owing a horse capable of competing in group one races. The above happened a round out in the home straight right in front of one of the biggest crowds I've seen at Alexandra Park for years. Multiple Group One race night. Auckland Cup night 6th March 2015. The Delightful Lady Classic was on that night along with the Great Northern Derby. Was the night Adore Me ran her last race. The race I'm referring to was the Group One Cardigan Bay Stakes. The horse Mark drove was Lazarus. The horse Natalie drove was Dream About Me. Clearly the best two horses in the race by streets. The two horses that needed assistance the least in the race helped each other guarantee the quinella in the sought after classic. It's my contention that Mark's decision to gift the lead away to his stablemate Dream About Me unquestionably cost Lazarus the race yet nothing was said. No questions were even asked. Natalie controlled the race beautifully from the front which is exactly what Mark gifted away. In order to catch and pass Dream About Me in the home straight Lazarus would have needed to run the last 200 metres in world record time. Natalie's very cleaver controlling of the race from the top ensured that was never going to happen. These two superb horses were always going to run first and second in this group one classic which is probably why no questions were asked. Some may say Lazarus had every opportunity to beat Dream About Me in the home straight but they would need to have no understanding re terminal velocity of a juvenile pacer to claim that. I have no issue with how both horses were driven in the home straight. Both Natalie and Mark gave 100% to get their charges home. The contentious aspect of the race occurred a round earlier. Had Mark held the lead he wins without doubt. If Dream About Me was trained by Bill Johnson we all know Mark Purdon would NEVER have gifted the lead to it under the same circumstances. To my eye what unfolded was contrived and blatant. http://harness.hrnz.co.nz/gas/wa/r/infohorsewahr/wsd01x?Arg=hrnzg-Ptype&Arg=RaceVideo&Arg=hrnzg-RacehdrID&Arg=209281
  9. So because Clark Barron handed up to a stablemate after a torrid first half, he's to blame for harness racing going down the plug hole? You are aware the horse that Barron handed up to has a lot of bottom to it and has continued with good form against decent horses since? You are also aware the horse that beat All Jokes Aside into second is a very highly regarded horse? Can you please inform the last time you saw any stablemates have an extended and genuine battle for the lead in any NZ harness race? I dislike stablemates looking after each other as much as any punter does but the example you bleat about and keep bleating about is the most lame limp noodle example of stable driving I've ever read on this website in 20 years. You describe yourself as a harness driver? yea right. I'm selling Auckland's Sky Tower for 20k cash. Are you interested in buying? It's so obvious you had a couple of dollars on the favourite All Jokes Aside to win and are looking for someone to blame for your bet not winning.
  10. Unbelievable. You are in desperate need of a life Ted. Well off the mark of course. the shue25 I've gone and checked out how many times you have liked a message that expresses disrespect toward me or the person he believes is me. You are incredible. I had a look for you on Google. It came back saying "Eunuch" with pictures that are not appropriate to post. I feel I better understand you and your likes now. Stay strong mate.
  11. Pretty obvious it is me who has hit a nerve with you. All we need to do now is work out which nerve is most sensitive. It's either the harness guru under threat thing or the sadness you feel toward the "poor fat sod" . Most people would see the later as a bit of banter. Boring gits however who feel it's too close for comfort with them will always try and take the high moral ground. For the record Basil,do you know what a passive / aggressive personality type is and how one is apparent on a site like this for example? I've never been accused of being passive / aggressive but have been accused of being aggressive many times. That's an accurate reflection. Online there are numerous personality types on show. Those who are aggressive are not rare. Some grow gonads because they know they will never be called to account. I spit on those people. They are the sorts of people who bravely attacked Charlotte Dawson online. Keyboard warriors is a good description. Then you have those who can be just as aggressive online as they are face to face. That's me. I would never in ten life times say something online that I don't have the balls to say face to face. I look you right in the eye and tell you exactly what I think of you and or your perspective. That's not because of being a tough guy as I'm not. I'm just an articulate communicator that has the courage of my convictions. I will meet anyone and yarn about different perspectives or disagreements. There are some things in life that I openly admit fearing but communicating with people is not one of them. Having a bone marrow biopsy is one feared. Skydiving was another. My daughters marrying dickheads is another etc etc. Describing me as a passive / aggressive displays a bewildering level of ignorance as to what one of those personalty types is. I know you'd never meet me in person. Yea I know you wouldn't want to waste your time bla bla bla but we both know that's bullshit. You will happily waste your time having a crack at me on here. When I disagree with someone I tend to justify or at least attempt to justify my perspective with facts and a bit of banter thrown in. I sincerely believe you to be a coward. You would happily say personal stuff on here that you would never have the bollocks to repeat in person. I'd know exactly where to find you at a social gathering. You'd be the person sitting on his own in the corner who wouldn't say boo to a goose. If I fronted you I know exactly what you'd say "it's all been a big misunderstanding". I own the fact that I despise those personality types. Happy to ridicule on here then dive into the shadows but a genuine coward in the flesh. I do apologize if my loathing and contempt for that personality type is apparent in some of my messages along the way.
  12. As long as you made it through ok. Thankfully it wasn't for long so the shakes didn't fully envelop you. I was genuinely worried.
  13. I agree but in the same way we laugh at this.
  14. Are you ok Ted? I was a bit worried about you when I saw the site was down for a few minutes this morning. Hope you got through it ok. Best wishes.
  15. Superb clip. Really enjoyed it. Before my time but know all the great names. Globe Bay made a mess of them. Incredible seeing Cecil Devine as a young man on 1951 Cup winner Van Dieman. If I didn't know better I'd think his run for second behind Globe Bay at Timaru was actually Lord Module. Would be interested to know if anyone here knew Ces and visited his Templeton property? As you walk down the path on the right side of his house you come by a monument to a fav horse of his on the right hand side. Straight ahead and to the left was his garden full of tomatoes etc. Does anyone know which one of Ces's previous champs that monument relates to? Was it Van Dieman or was it three time cup winner False Step. He told me but it was a while ago and I can't for the life of me remember.
  16. You are 100% correct hsvman but don't go confusing johnryan with actual facts.
  17. As you find it funny TRT I will explain the dynamic. johnevensryan has been passing himself off as a successful harness driver since the 2014 Ashburton Stakes won by Adore Me. He has never produced one bit of evidence to substantiate him being a harness driver despite numerous requests. Nobody on the site can verify his claims. Anonymity is totally cool but if you're going to try and add weight to your yarn by saying you are a driver yourself you must then validate that claim. John happily routinely rubbishes drivers himself then ridicules anyone else who critiques a drive as an ignorant novice. Two things make his critiques stand out from the rest. The first being he is the only alleged harness driver in the world who routinely uses a harness website to publicly critique alleged colleagues. Then you look at his critiques themselves. They invariably involve a favourite who ran second. When you examine the critique it is quickly found to be totally devoid of merit. In a nutshell he is 1 million light years away from being a harness driver and his very damning criticisms have little or no merit whatsoever. If you point out to him the drive was perfectly acceptable he will remind you about him being a driver himself and you being a novice. If on the other hand you suggest something was not 100% about a drive yourself he will quickly come on here and again remind you what a novice you are. He is obviously the only person among us who can read a race and has a valid point to make when critiquing a drive. Perhaps now you better understand the 16 month old dynamic.
  18. You're a very funny man Ted. Hilarious in fact. Hows the stalking going by the way? Does your good lady wonder what you're doing when you sit in front of the computer for 18 hours a day with your Nancy Drew hat on gathering "evidence"
  19. I'm not seeing the new flag as a threat Barry. I actually like the design. If we don't change the flag I hope we find a good purpose for it elsewhere.
  20. Sweet Chariot is bloody awful. Makes my skin crawl when they sing that.
  21. John Key is a very clever man and has done well for himself. That is something to be very proud of. I do however feel he and his colleagues have displayed an indifference toward those less fortunate than themselves during their reign. We have more and more people suffering while others are basking. The well off will tell you there is no real poverty in NZ and how if you want to see genuine poverty then go to the Mumbai slums. That is b.s in my opinion. It's akin to telling a kid who won't eat his dinner that starving children in Ethiopia would give their right hand for that meal. Everything is relative. Fact is there are a large and growing number of NZ kids going to school with empty tummies. More and more volunteers are being relied upon to be the solution. That's not right. The wealthy will also tell you the parents of these hungry children still drink and smoke bla bla bla. They will quickly reach for that without any actual evidence that says that hungry child over there Billy is hungry because his parents spent $115 this week on alcohol and cigarettes. Even if that was true it's not the kids fault. In my opinion it's just another cop out and justification for the wealthy to continue with their indifference toward the less fortunate. That is not the NZ I grew up in. We had telethons etc where we all helped each other which is the NZ way. If John Key felt there was a good reason to change the flag then fair enough. Find out the most cost effective way of learning if the majority of Kiwi's agree with him. That would be by including an extra box on the ballot form at the next general election. Instead that process has been skipped exactly as if we need to change the flag with urgency. Clearly we don't. So why is NZ spending obscene amounts of money at this time to rush through the change? It's because that is what John Key wants. His attitude toward the funds used is a slap in the face to all those doing it hard and the volunteers that help them. It's also not how I want my tax money spent. God knows I pay enough of that. John Key has acted like an arrogant very wealthy man who has a lot of power at his disposal. This flag change will not make NZ a better anything. It will not create a new New Zealand. That has already occurred when he opened the floodgates to Chinese immigrants and forever changed the face of NZ. The present flag represents all NZ is and has been. If we dispose of that we dispose of part of our own foundations. A young Country can't afford to do that. What will be the incentive to retain the new flag in another 25 years? It will have virtually no meaning so who will fight to retain it? Another arrogant Prime Minister on an ego trip will come along and change it to something else. Leave the flag alone. If you want to leave your mark as a politician there are lots of ways you can do that which will help all of NZ rather than just the more fortunate among us. I believe John Key has acted like a wealthy man with a lot of power and a nice helping of arrogance thrown in. As for the National anthem. I will stay out of that one other than to say I enjoy the Maori version of our anthem very much.
  22. The right time to have this debate is now barryb. You are correct. Why is that? Because we have been forced into a situation where we must have this debate due to the ego and power of one wealthy man who wants to leave his mark. He has forced this situation on us regardless if we want it or not. There are many things that NZ urgently needs before we need a hugely expensive advertising campaign to totally unnecessarily change our flag. Well respected community organisations desperately in need of funding are being rejected because there is no money in the kitty. This is causing even more distress on volunteers and victims yet we have an endless supply of money to change the flag? If there is another life force in our Galaxy they will be looking down on NZ and laughing about how crazy we are to be entertaining this nonsense while other situations are being ignored. It's just so wrong.
  23. This may be humour Hesi but as soon as we start changing to find our identity we will always lose it and be taken over by a stronger identity. Once the flag is changed it will be changed again in another 25 years when the and and a half million Chinese people here demand the flag be more reflective of them. Your flag is pretty much exactly the sort of flag our children and their children will have flying over them. The birthrates of Chinese in Auckland are now dominating statistics. Many Auckland Plunket nurses report that 70%+ of all new baby cases they attend are in fact Chinese. Plunket is an organisation that is backed up against the wall with funding to the point nurses are now being let go from areas that just cant afford that to happen. Despite that more and more Chinese interpreters are being used at great expense to the tax payer for these mothers who can't speak a word of English. It's nuts.
  24. Do you really want a wheet-bix flag Ohokaman?