RaceCafe..#1...Tipsters Thread.... Share Your Fancies For Fun...Lets See Who The Best Tipsters Here Are.

We're Doomed

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  1. Like
    We're Doomed reacted to Memphis3 in GOLDEN SLIPPER 2024   
    Coolmore made the choice. Major shareholder in both horses. 
  2. Haha
    We're Doomed got a reaction from Insider in William Reid Stakes field…..tougher for Imperatriz ?   
    Who's Berri?
  3. Like
    We're Doomed reacted to Contentious in William Reid Stakes field…..tougher for Imperatriz ?   
    I am like you WD - I did not know that. Maybe you would have to be involved with the stable to know OR maybe a Trackside interviewer 😁
  4. Like
    We're Doomed reacted to Pheroz in William Reid Stakes field…..tougher for Imperatriz ?   
    Berri is Imperatriz stable name
  5. Like
    We're Doomed reacted to Ohokaman in Owners to vote on Brightside rider   
    Some interesting comments here…..
     
    Mr Brightside ran to 103.8 in finishing second to Pride Of Jenni, just below his 104.9 best from The Cox Plate last year and equal to the 103.8 he ran to win the 2023 All-Star Mile. There has been a lot of discussion about where he settled in the run, the connections pre-race desire for him to go forward in the early stages and whether that made a difference to the outcome of the race. My analysis says that Mr Brightside didn't win the race because he wasn't as fast as Pride Of Jenni over the 1600m trip, not because of the tactical choices made by Craig Williams. At their previous peak ratings, there was nothing between them. Pride Of Jenni went to a new level on Saturday (107.2) that Mr Brightside has never reached in his career.
    In a speed rating sense, Mr Brightside travelled faster than ever in his career to the 600m mark. He wasn't poorly "paced" by Craig Williams—quite the opposite. He was well positioned relative to such a brutal early speed, especially given his previous speed profile.  Due to the frantic early speed, his sectional speed ratings (against standards) were progressively slowing from the 800m mark, as were all horses. Most importantly, his last 800m, 600m, 400m, and 200m weren't the fastest in the race. That belonged to Cascadian, who was 2-3L behind Mr Brightside at different points in the race. That tells me that Mr Brightside had the chance to run home faster if he could do it on the day. It wasn't physically impossible. Had he run home slightly faster than Cascadian over the final 800m and been the race fastest, he would have won the race in a photo. He couldn't run home as fast or faster than Cascadian because the impact of being 2-3L closer than that horse reduced his available energy.
    It makes no sense for anyone to claim that settling 3,4,5 lengths closer in the run and using even more energy in the early stages would have somehow seen him run the 1600m over 2L faster than he did to beat Pride Of Jenni. That's not to say if he settled closer, he would have produced a lower rating performance; he may have gone fractionally better; we don't know. However, it defies logic developed by analysing hundreds of thousands of past horse performances in the context of early speed, late speed and position in the running to suggest that if he settled closer to that brutal speed, he would have run two lengths faster overall.
    While Pride Of Jenni won their battle on Saturday, that's not to say Mr Brightside can't turn the tables in the future. By definition, the spike that Pride Of Jenni produced on Saturday is a level of performance that is likely not to be matched every run in her career. Mr Brightside is an incredibly consistent talent. He puts up a level that takes some beating every start. It just happened on this day that Pride Of Jenni beat his mark, by clearly exceeding her previous best. That doesn't mean she'll be able to do it next time. She has the talent edge on this peak rating now, but on their general level of form, they are very evenly matched.

  6. Like
    We're Doomed reacted to Pam Robson in Owners to vote on Brightside rider   
    I have to wade into this discussion,  but NOT from a betting perspective. 
    Barriers definitely make a difference from the horse's point of view. 
    Some horses dislike being in tight quarters, and for them, an inside draw is a disadvantage.  
    Others can't manage to sit wide and do extra work, so outside draws don't suit at all.
    Just depends. 
  7. Like
    We're Doomed got a reaction from Pam Robson in Owners to vote on Brightside rider   
    The barriers made no difference in the race in question. The mare was always going to go to the front and no one was going to argue with her, not even Buffalo River. Brightside was always going to settle back because that is his pattern. She was unbeatable on the day on a short straight track like Caulfield.
  8. Like
    We're Doomed got a reaction from Alf Riston in Owners to vote on Brightside rider   
    The barriers made no difference in the race in question. The mare was always going to go to the front and no one was going to argue with her, not even Buffalo River. Brightside was always going to settle back because that is his pattern. She was unbeatable on the day on a short straight track like Caulfield.
  9. Like
    We're Doomed reacted to Memphis3 in Owners to vote on Brightside rider   
    Never going to win that race with the form Jenni was in. Even if Lester Piggot had ridden it. Taking  the draws into consideration 
  10. Like
    We're Doomed reacted to nomates in Owners to vote on Brightside rider   
    What is it with some owners , are they just straight out greedy bastards , CW has won them millions on this horse over the last couple of seasons , now one ride that "They" think is average and they want sack him , Christ he ran second , I don't believe he would have gone any better ridden closer as he would have had to do a bit of work to be closer to the eventual winner and IMO he wouldn't have beaten her on the day , she was super .
    Just like everything else in this world people want it all , be grateful for what you have got you miserable gits and stop being bad losers .
  11. Like
    We're Doomed reacted to Leggy in You have to wonder why   
    From a $3 bet?
  12. Like
    We're Doomed reacted to Idolmite in How many “real” stars are in this ?   
    Two. Top and bottom of the field. 
    Although I wouldn't mind owning s hair on the tail of any of the others. 
  13. Like
    We're Doomed got a reaction from dock leaf in Awapuni update.   
    The interesting thing about closing Trentham for 3 years is what happens if the other CD tracks cope quite well with the pressure and it becomes apparent that Trentham isn't really needed.
    What on earth are they going to be doing to Trentham for 3 years? Are they bulldozing the stands as well as redoing the track?
  14. Like
    We're Doomed got a reaction from nomates in Jean Rapier (nz)   
    He raced during an era when we had several good hurdlers who could string together several wins in a row.
  15. Like
    We're Doomed reacted to Leggy in Awapuni update.   
    It's interesting that they say in that article that Awapuni are trying to replicate the Foxton natural surface.
  16. Like
    We're Doomed got a reaction from Baz (NZ) in Auckland Cup result   
    I largely agree, but merely increasing stakes money won't fix a race like the Cup. 
    The race that I thought was really poor was the Bonecrusher. Other than the hot fav it was a pretty ordinary field. I think Legarto got a $500,000 bonus for placing in a couple of designated races. I wasn't following it too much, but did that bonus get much of a mention on mainstream media and on trackside? Did it excite people and did it boost the quality and size of the field? I wonder if Entain would consider it $700,000 well spent?
    The size of some of the supporting races must have been disappointing considering the stakes on offer.
  17. Like
    We're Doomed got a reaction from nomates in Auckland Cup result   
    I largely agree, but merely increasing stakes money won't fix a race like the Cup. 
    The race that I thought was really poor was the Bonecrusher. Other than the hot fav it was a pretty ordinary field. I think Legarto got a $500,000 bonus for placing in a couple of designated races. I wasn't following it too much, but did that bonus get much of a mention on mainstream media and on trackside? Did it excite people and did it boost the quality and size of the field? I wonder if Entain would consider it $700,000 well spent?
    The size of some of the supporting races must have been disappointing considering the stakes on offer.
  18. Haha
    We're Doomed got a reaction from Hi Ho Silver in Terrific (nz)   
    I don't think anyone was suggesting it was about to make a come-back Mike.
  19. Like
    We're Doomed reacted to Contentious in Trentham track update   
    where would they get a number of horses from? 😉
  20. Like
    We're Doomed got a reaction from TurnyTom in Trentham track update   
    So basically they can now guarantee it will be consistently wet across the whole width of the track.
  21. Haha
    We're Doomed got a reaction from Pete Lane in Trentham track update   
    So basically they can now guarantee it will be consistently wet across the whole width of the track.
  22. Haha
    We're Doomed got a reaction from Insider in Terrific (nz)   
    I don't think anyone was suggesting it was about to make a come-back Mike.
  23. Like
    We're Doomed got a reaction from canon47 in Terrific (nz)   
    I don't think anyone was suggesting it was about to make a come-back Mike.
  24. Haha
    We're Doomed got a reaction from Pete Lane in Terrific (nz)   
    I don't think anyone was suggesting it was about to make a come-back Mike.
  25. Like
    We're Doomed got a reaction from Pete Lane in Oops Is $11.80 Correct   
    Certainly a strange one. I have never seen anything quite like it before. The TAB really should explain what happened.
    Normally if a horse pays a freakish place price its because another horse, or horses, has had a massive place punt on it. For that horse to pay over $11 there should have been one or two horses paying about 50 cents a place. It might have been money laundering where someone put massive place punts on all but two of the horses. In which case it might have been expensive for them as they probably hoped all three of the punted horses would place.
    I seem to vaguely recall when Axeman won his maiden he was something like 1/8 in the betting. But that is a different scenario brought on by a massive win bet.