RaceCafe..#1...Tipsters Thread.... Share Your Fancies For Fun...Lets See Who The Best Tipsters Here Are.

Blind Squirrel

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Everything posted by Blind Squirrel

  1. Why are the handlers wearing black armbands today at Addington?
  2. So Tony McGovern comes full circle after being the starter at Ellerslie before he left for the role in Hong Kong which led to Gripper's appointment. Wonder if he will still be wearing the trademark Panama Hat?
  3. I thought I had given this sort of maths sh*t up after my third year in the fifth form - now it's coming back to haunt me aaaaagggghhhh
  4. Unlike some others I'm happy to admit when I'm wrong. There is no fixed takeout from a Final Field bet rather it is the market % that sets an "effective" takeout rate for that market - I believe my other points are valid - no matter how condescendingly they were made "petals"
  5. Re SMD - if you think there is no take out of a Fixed odds bet then I believe you are wrong sorry. Just ask the TAB although I'm sure someone else on here can advise me if that is correct Overcheck - it is not the TV 7 second delay it is the delay in dividend refresh which is 30-40 seconds. Also what about the scroll at the bottom of the TV screen that shows win and place divs - tote win and place?? Seems to me that everyone is a conspiracy theorist these days
  6. Perhaps for my ongoing education you can point out where what I said was factually incorrect?
  7. Perhaps if you both understood how the different types of bet options operate especially the tote then you might care to revise what you have said. The average TAB takeout rate on Final Field bets is around 5-6% (or it used to be) and is not a guaranteed return. The takeout rates on tote products is around 3-4 times higher and IS a guaranteed return so why the TAB would encourage FInal Field place bets over tote isn't plausible. Example - Punter 1 places $20 FF place bet on a horse paying $2FFP - The TAB gets $1.20 from the bet (if FF takeout rate is 6%) once placed. If the bets loses then the TAB gets your whole $20 and makes $20. If the horse is successful then the punter gets $40 and the TAB gets their $1.20 and loses $38.80 on the bet - a major negative return. Tote - Punter places same bet on the tote - TAB gets 14.25% of every $1 on commingled pools so TAB gets a guaranteed $2.85 - the balance of your $20 bet goes into the pool to make up the place dividend pool which determines what your horse ultimately pays if successful - as the TAB pays out every $1 in that pool it doesn't win extra if your bet is unsuccessful nor does it lose anything if it comes in - it gets its guaranteed $2.85. A better result on the whole on most occasions - so why would TAB want to discourage this - I think not. As for the bet changing odds from $9 to $2.80 - are you new to betting or do you not understand how a tote works?????? If it was a minor Aussie harness meeting there was probably less than $1k in the tote win pool when your saw the horse and maybe $12-$15k when it closed. If the horse you saw was well favoured (and 80% of betting occurs in the last 30seconds before race close) then it's pretty easy to see how the odds changed as the weight of money dragged it down - the fact that movement didn't show for about a minute after the race started is purely due to the time the TAB systems take to calculate the dividend movements based on that late money taken - which normally takes time. Hope that helps you both
  8. I can see there being some serious argy bargy over the first 400-600m, especially on the first bend. It may be a bonus to be drawn a little wide as those on the fence that want to take a sit could end up getting smashed back by the chargers from out wide that want to find a possy then ease off. I guess the good thing is that if it was in NZ the riding standard would definitely see someone go over the fence or get decked given our jockeys propensity for pulling up in front!! Of the Aus chances you have to rate Ace High as he can run on speed and has a good draw - Youngstar and Kings of Dream (is he really an Aussie) also drawn well and must be contenders from a local point of view. I am a little cautious on any of the raiders backing up from last week as that track was very firm late in the day and if it is the same tomorrow it will be a tough ask for any horse to cop two weeks in a row on hard track. Finding it had to narrow it down but a decent place bet on Ace High might be my go at this stage. Will make a good leg of the quaddie as well as believe you can go short in the other 3 legs - give Charles Road a decent show in the first leg and happy to see Peaceful State bounce back in the last (especially as you have to have most Weir runners in combos)
  9. Having not done any homework on the internationals my genuine questions is where will the speed come from in the race? A large number of Caulfield Cups have been sit sprint affairs in recent years with the off and on tempo finding out most of the genuine stayers in the race - great to be charging home with a Melbourne Cup trial in mind but that doesn't pay the bills for next week for most punters. Any ideas about potential leaders - I did expect Homesman to be handy throughout and even Jon Snow if he can get across them early but neither are true leaders. Maybe one of the Japanese runners? Thoughts appreciated.
  10. What about the First 4 on Race 8 for BS and the first 4 on Race 9 for The Shark as I understood you were boxing their 4 selections????
  11. I can see the point you are making but just one stat that makes it look worse is that Snitzel's son Redzel did win A$5.8m in one hit when he won the Everest. That is an outlier that should be considered I would think?
  12. If you had followed the weather forecasts from Monday, significant rain was promised on both Tuesday and Wednesday - it didn't arrive so what were they to do - Cross their fingers and not irrigate and run on a Good 1 if the rain didn't come or take the sensible option and apply something to try and mitigate for what may or may not arrive. Damned if they do and damned if they don't - who wants to be a track manager!
  13. I'll try and get the ball rolling with no reference books or google!
  14. I'm no handicapping expert but I''m assuming the race is run under the standard SW&P conditions outlined in the Thoroughbred Monthly whereby: The filly has set weight of 55.5kg but receives the fillies allowance of 1.5kg to sit at 54kg. Age Of Fire has colts and geldings set weight base of 57.5kg and the prescribed 2kg penalty for his Group One win therefore 59.5kg. I'm not aware that there are any other penalties for running a placing in a black type race or for the number of "normal" race wins you have so his second in the 2000 Guineas is irrelevant as his last start win in a similar SW & P event. As this is not run under the normal handicapping scale but as SW&P that is why the weights are what they are.
  15. If you come for the King - best not miss I just hope you haven't bought a spoon to a gunfight there newbie.
  16. Am I Missing something? Thought Stunning CAt won race 8 at Kranji tonight - shown s winner on Singapore Turf Club site TAB has Magic Wand as winner with Stunning Cat not in the first 4 home. I must be missing something???
  17. Perhaps I was to hasty to lump you in with others - must do better there. However lets look at what you said - "However It was utter inanity to have those colours tonight making it difficult for punters and commentator alike to follow each race. By all means have the concept but leave the stupidity out." That passes for CONSTRUCTIVE criticism does it - I'll let others decide on that but I know what my thoughts are and constructive it aint. BTW - just as an exercise, exactly how many horses on the night would have sported their "Owners colours" - I know all the Te Akau horses would and maybe those raced by Lib Petagna, Kevin Hickman (if they had any running) and a few other larger owners (most likely Spindle would have as it is a special syndicate) however without doing the maths I would suggest if it was 15% I would be surprised. Just how sacrosanct do the owners of the other 850% of horses running believe colours are then. How far out are those numbers Ted you constructive and relentlessly positive individual.
  18. As the resident know-it-all I'm sure you meant Craig Baker the ARC Racing Manager as opposed to Hallmark Studs Mark Baker - both top notch fellas but I doubt very much that Mark speaks for the ARC. Good to see you got Claydo's name completely correct - well done you, have half a gold star. For the record I did say the following "No doubt the colours could have been a little more diverse and easier to associate with either the jockey or horse" - my argument was not that the colours weren't tough for those used to seeing the traditional silks - my argument, if you looked outside your narrow minded invective, was that you were just another of the mob trashing the whole event based on one component of a multi headed beast that was designed to try and lift racing out of the doldrums. You all want change, growth, prosperity yet the minute anyone steps outside an antiquated set of norms you attempt to undermine them with your overwrought version of the chicken little classic "The sky is falling...:
  19. Some interesting rebuttal - mostly self interested garbage - but none the less debate has been achieved. In no particular order Chevvy - the logical conclusion to your argument is that you will continue on an ever decreasing downward spiral that will eventually see the entire industry wiped out no matter how many millions have been expended to keep it propped up to appease those who are trying to steer it forward by watching things unfold in the rear view mirror. But by golly you and your like minded cronies will have a good time while it lasted in your insular, protectionist world - your dismissal of the younger generation as punting and/or ownership candidates is breathtakingly shallow, narrow minded and quite simply what I would expect from you. Gubs - I will ask George next time I see him at the races and have a laugh about it. Perhaps you might like to comment on whether the industry is beholding to the likes/dislikes of one paid employee who is contracted to do a particular job - definitely a skilful job that he does exceptionally well but quite simply a job plain and simple. Tom - a well thought out argument and I would suggest the answers lie somewhere in between what was on offer tonight and the ideal scenario - however to suggest having the purists pissed off is a bad thing is overly dramatic. Ask the cricket purists how they enjoy a game that was dying on the vine before one day and T20 was brought in and I would expect they will begrudgingly say it has been the lifeblood of their sport's survival - Test matches with less than 2000 in attendance and NO television coverage due to "only the purists" wanting to watch would now be the norm without the innovation (and the same for rugby I might add). The rest - a minor point however one worth making - I find it difficult to sympathise with any of your views when you make your points with overwrought emotional language - FFS its not the end of the world but you would think this was the greatest disastaer ever inflicted on mankind. Try using a little perspective for once Oh and about the inference's about my moniker and making such well disguised digs at it - if you're going to act like 5 year-olds well the best I can say is - you're ugly and your mother dresses you funny.
  20. nope but thanks for playing - now pop back to your colouring book and let the grown ups chat
  21. If anyone needed evidence on the lack of a future for thoroughbred racing in this country they only need to read the comments registered on this topic to date. The reality is this is an industry struggling for relevance in modern times, clinging to a vision (through rose tinted spectacles) of what was once a thriving entertainment option with little or no competition hoping that doing the same thing over and over again will generate a different outcome. Ellerslie implement these twilight racing events to attract a new/younger generation to racing (pics on Trackside looks like it works pretty well) and the over 50 brigade on here are bagging the night because of the jockeys colours!! Surely one or two days a year the traditionalists like yourselves can actually sit back, keep your childish invective to yourself and maybe congratulate the people who have tried to look outside the square to something that, god forbid, may have traction in the media, create an atmosphere of positivity and get people thinking about racing as a genuine entertainment opportunity. No doubt the colours could have been a little more diverse and easier to associate with either the jockey or horse but for FFS do you really think that matters to those who rocked up for the atmospehere and to enjoy themselves who may never have been before. And if you think it will stop them from coming back you are delusional. I have no problem having a little difficulty following my horse on these rare occasions if it actually benefits the sport I love - whoever got this off the ground, got the corporate sponsors involved, had the foresight to have some of Australasia's best riding talent involved and provided a great night out to benefit the future of the sport deserves congratulations rather than a flaying that you all seem to want to dish out. Well done Ellerslie - at least you have tried something rarher sat behind a keyboard and offered little but a glimpse of the 1960's.
  22. I'm struggling to think of any bet types currently in operation that get the 2nd fav Foxy Win, Place, Quinella, Trifecta and 1st 4 are all refund Double, Treble, Quad, Pick 6 and Place 6 are all reinvest on tote fav at tote close. Mulit, Poker are all "treat as $1" i.e.bet continues and scratching treated as a successful $1 dividend return. Can't think of any others?
  23. Bank a/c please Jason Thanks for ll your hard work once again. cheers
  24. I will be busy tomorrow and Wednesday (impeccable timing) so expecting a firm track this far out and will need plenty of luck! My 3 are in Race 7 Garfunkel (7), Suzerain (9) and Nothing Trivial (10) - any scratchings then replace please with Wazuzu (3) or Vantaa (4) Good luck all - look forward to seeing results when I stagger in late on Wednesday night!