Blind Squirrel

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Blind Squirrel last won the day on December 13 2017

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About Blind Squirrel

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    Maiden - R50

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  1. Harlech has clashed with Travelling Light three times and scoreboard is 3 Zip to Travelling Light - she might just have his measure.
  2. So Tony McGovern comes full circle after being the starter at Ellerslie before he left for the role in Hong Kong which led to Gripper's appointment. Wonder if he will still be wearing the trademark Panama Hat?
  3. I thought I had given this sort of maths sh*t up after my third year in the fifth form - now it's coming back to haunt me aaaaagggghhhh
  4. Unlike some others I'm happy to admit when I'm wrong. There is no fixed takeout from a Final Field bet rather it is the market % that sets an "effective" takeout rate for that market - I believe my other points are valid - no matter how condescendingly they were made "petals"
  5. Re SMD - if you think there is no take out of a Fixed odds bet then I believe you are wrong sorry. Just ask the TAB although I'm sure someone else on here can advise me if that is correct Overcheck - it is not the TV 7 second delay it is the delay in dividend refresh which is 30-40 seconds. Also what about the scroll at the bottom of the TV screen that shows win and place divs - tote win and place?? Seems to me that everyone is a conspiracy theorist these days
  6. Perhaps for my ongoing education you can point out where what I said was factually incorrect?
  7. Perhaps if you both understood how the different types of bet options operate especially the tote then you might care to revise what you have said. The average TAB takeout rate on Final Field bets is around 5-6% (or it used to be) and is not a guaranteed return. The takeout rates on tote products is around 3-4 times higher and IS a guaranteed return so why the TAB would encourage FInal Field place bets over tote isn't plausible. Example - Punter 1 places $20 FF place bet on a horse paying $2FFP - The TAB gets $1.20 from the bet (if FF takeout rate is 6%) once placed. If the bets loses then the TAB gets your whole $20 and makes $20. If the horse is successful then the punter gets $40 and the TAB gets their $1.20 and loses $38.80 on the bet - a major negative return. Tote - Punter places same bet on the tote - TAB gets 14.25% of every $1 on commingled pools so TAB gets a guaranteed $2.85 - the balance of your $20 bet goes into the pool to make up the place dividend pool which determines what your horse ultimately pays if successful - as the TAB pays out every $1 in that pool it doesn't win extra if your bet is unsuccessful nor does it lose anything if it comes in - it gets its guaranteed $2.85. A better result on the whole on most occasions - so why would TAB want to discourage this - I think not. As for the bet changing odds from $9 to $2.80 - are you new to betting or do you not understand how a tote works?????? If it was a minor Aussie harness meeting there was probably less than $1k in the tote win pool when your saw the horse and maybe $12-$15k when it closed. If the horse you saw was well favoured (and 80% of betting occurs in the last 30seconds before race close) then it's pretty easy to see how the odds changed as the weight of money dragged it down - the fact that movement didn't show for about a minute after the race started is purely due to the time the TAB systems take to calculate the dividend movements based on that late money taken - which normally takes time. Hope that helps you both
  8. I can see there being some serious argy bargy over the first 400-600m, especially on the first bend. It may be a bonus to be drawn a little wide as those on the fence that want to take a sit could end up getting smashed back by the chargers from out wide that want to find a possy then ease off. I guess the good thing is that if it was in NZ the riding standard would definitely see someone go over the fence or get decked given our jockeys propensity for pulling up in front!! Of the Aus chances you have to rate Ace High as he can run on speed and has a good draw - Youngstar and Kings of Dream (is he really an Aussie) also drawn well and must be contenders from a local point of view. I am a little cautious on any of the raiders backing up from last week as that track was very firm late in the day and if it is the same tomorrow it will be a tough ask for any horse to cop two weeks in a row on hard track. Finding it had to narrow it down but a decent place bet on Ace High might be my go at this stage. Will make a good leg of the quaddie as well as believe you can go short in the other 3 legs - give Charles Road a decent show in the first leg and happy to see Peaceful State bounce back in the last (especially as you have to have most Weir runners in combos)
  9. Having not done any homework on the internationals my genuine questions is where will the speed come from in the race? A large number of Caulfield Cups have been sit sprint affairs in recent years with the off and on tempo finding out most of the genuine stayers in the race - great to be charging home with a Melbourne Cup trial in mind but that doesn't pay the bills for next week for most punters. Any ideas about potential leaders - I did expect Homesman to be handy throughout and even Jon Snow if he can get across them early but neither are true leaders. Maybe one of the Japanese runners? Thoughts appreciated.
  10. What about the First 4 on Race 8 for BS and the first 4 on Race 9 for The Shark as I understood you were boxing their 4 selections????
  11. I can see the point you are making but just one stat that makes it look worse is that Snitzel's son Redzel did win A$5.8m in one hit when he won the Everest. That is an outlier that should be considered I would think?
  12. If you had followed the weather forecasts from Monday, significant rain was promised on both Tuesday and Wednesday - it didn't arrive so what were they to do - Cross their fingers and not irrigate and run on a Good 1 if the rain didn't come or take the sensible option and apply something to try and mitigate for what may or may not arrive. Damned if they do and damned if they don't - who wants to be a track manager!
  13. I'll try and get the ball rolling with no reference books or google!
  14. I'm no handicapping expert but I''m assuming the race is run under the standard SW&P conditions outlined in the Thoroughbred Monthly whereby: The filly has set weight of 55.5kg but receives the fillies allowance of 1.5kg to sit at 54kg. Age Of Fire has colts and geldings set weight base of 57.5kg and the prescribed 2kg penalty for his Group One win therefore 59.5kg. I'm not aware that there are any other penalties for running a placing in a black type race or for the number of "normal" race wins you have so his second in the 2000 Guineas is irrelevant as his last start win in a similar SW & P event. As this is not run under the normal handicapping scale but as SW&P that is why the weights are what they are.
  15. If you come for the King - best not miss I just hope you haven't bought a spoon to a gunfight there newbie.