RaceCafe..#1...Tipsters Thread.... Share Your Fancies For Fun...Lets See Who The Best Tipsters Here Are.

The Crucible

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Everything posted by The Crucible

  1. R1 - 1/3 R2 - 2/3 R3 - 1/3 R4 - 1/2 R5 - 10/14 bb R6 - 1/7 R7 - 3/12 R8 - 2/3 R9 - 6/9 bb R10 - 1/5 Merry Christmas to all and especially to you Peter J. Pretty stoked at landing in such a stacked team.
  2. 1. 3/12 bb 2. 2/3 3. 1/2 4. 5/6 5. 9/10 bb 6. 5/11 7. 4/9 8. 1/5 Cheers Peter
  3. My picks: R1 - 1/2 bb R2 - 9/13 R3 - 1/2 R4 - 4/9 R5 - 11/12 R6 - 2/10 bb R7 - 3/5 John's picks: R1 - 2/4 R2 - 1/13 bb R3 - 1/2 R4 - 5/9 R5 - 3/7 R6 - 2/10 R7 - 3/6 bb Thanks Peter
  4. This is a good idea and I've suggested it to the TAB but no response.
  5. I'm not comparing to other sports (I like to bet on horse racing), and I'm not comparing to industry averages - I know our bookies are gutless compared to overseas counterparts. I'm just saying that your expected return on a H2H bet is 92.5% (or a 7.5% loss) which is significantly better than your expected return on a tote or final field bet. If you bet black or red (or odd or even) on a roulette wheel with two green slots then your expected return is just below 95% (or 5% loss). Add two more green slots to the roulette wheel and your expected return is 90% (or a 10% loss). I wouldn't play either wheel but if I had to, it's pretty obvious which one to choose.
  6. Jockeys don't do that which is johnboy's gripe in the original post, and why I'm saying you take your chances with this type of bet
  7. Problem is David Walker did know - he bet against his own mount and rode his horse to lose - it doesn't get much worse than that. I'm fine with the H2H bet type, and I figure if people don't like their gimmicky options, then they should just ignore them.
  8. I don't understand what you mean by this - the house take on this bet type is around 7.5% compared to around 15% on the tote and somewhere around 20% on final field win and place betting.
  9. Good luck with that. An alternative is that you could stop betting on H2H and those of us who are willing to take this risk can continue to use this option.
  10. They were both out of the money so unless she had a bet on the other horse in the H2H market and deliberately rode to get beaten by Hatrick Boys (a la David Walker) then she has done nothing wrong. As far as I'm aware, jockeys have an obligation to ride their mounts out if they have a chance of finishing in the money, but no obligation to ride their horse out to win the H2H bets? Do they even know that they are in the H2H option? That's the problem with H2H bets and the risk you take when you place a H2H bet. I enjoy the odd H2H bet but there are certain jockeys I won't back in a H2H bet because I know if their mount has no chance of finishing in the money, they are more likely to ease them down than ride them out. I suspect your email to the RIU will be in vain.
  11. Race 1: 9/16 Race 2: 6/13 bb Race 3: 7/13 Race 4: 5/7 Race 5: 5/11 Race 6: 5/10 Race 7: 5/9 Race 8: 3/6 bb Race 9: 2/7 Cheers Peter
  12. Bona fide - figured it was an average field and couldn't find too many front runners to take advantage of the Te Rapa bias. I'll leave the random numbers up to you. Surprised you didn't stick with that strategy given your success to date.
  13. R1) 6/8 R2) 3/5 R3) 1/2 R4) 1/5 bb R5) 3/4 R6) 2/6 R7) 1/7 R8) 2/11 R9) 7/11 bb Thanks Peter
  14. R1 - 2/3 bb R2 - 1/4 R3 - 1/6 R4 - 2/8 R5 - 3/8 R6 - 5/8 R7 - 4/7 R8 - 1/11 bb R9 - 4/12 Thanks Peter
  15. R1: 2/6 R2: 2/8 bb R3: 8/14 R4: 5/12 bb R5: 3/12 R6: 6/7 Thanks Peter
  16. I certainly feel for the guy with his long time battle with depression - wouldn't wish that on anyone. Leggy, perhaps you should send him a link to your Bob Newhart skit. But I can understand where the Stewards are coming from - if he is not well enough to attend an inquiry then perhaps he needs to take some more time off from training horses to try to get himself right.
  17. Who on this thread said he was "forced wide"?
  18. I think we watched it without blinkers on
  19. Left handed - yes something in that. As for the smooth run, Kawi got tightened around the 1200m mark and dropped back to second last. He was giving Consensus around 1 - 1.5 lengths near the 800m mark and from that point went four wide around the big bend. She had a reasonably clear run through the field and covered much less ground round that bend. As for the distance, looked like he was pulling away from her over the last 50m despite covering all of that extra ground.
  20. R1 - 2/5 R2 - 3/7 R3 - 1/2 bb R4 - 2/5 R5 - 1/6 bb R6 - 3/5 R7 - 6/10 R8 - 1/6 R9 - 4/7 Cheers
  21. R1 - 2/6 R2 - 5/12 R3 - 1/6 R4 - 2/8 R5 - 1/3 bb R6 - 3/4 bb R7 - 6/9 R8 - 5/8 R9 - 2/15 Thanks