RaceCafe..#1...Tipsters Thread.... Share Your Fancies For Fun...Lets See Who The Best Tipsters Here Are.

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  1. Based on projections of attendance, this should do the job and not be too cost prohibitive....
    9 points
  2. scooby3051

    Railway Positive

    A joke...so many times and they get the minimum...two tier system for the small guys and a separate one for big stables...JMO
    6 points
  3. nomates

    Riccarton Commentator

    I think he's trying hard to get it right , I will say he is accurate in a finish and sees them coming unlike some .
    6 points
  4. Who needs a handicapper? Weight makes no difference anyway
    6 points
  5. No pressure PS. They're a tough bunch team Horlicks. Phil and Aaron near the top of individual aggregates and both Rev and Gubellini very race hardened. Question is, will Rough Habit's relatively low aggregate come back to bite them in the final wash-up? Good aggregate worth half a point in a tie situation. Good luck mate, it's going to be a fun day. I'll be trying to post Live points table updates after each race to add to the drama
    5 points
  6. Hard to turn down a 7 figure sum irrespective of the stakes increases here.
    5 points
  7. Sorry team I was not totally on my game today lost my little mate of 16 years...well done Chestnut on a good score today...come on team we can beat the opponents next week and come from the clouds to make the finals...thanks again SNM great job again mate.
    5 points
  8. Chestnut

    Riccarton Commentator

    Don't they all ? Just some are more accurate and entertaining robots
    5 points
  9. Insider

    Riccarton Commentator

    I think that in the not too distant future he will replace the great Tony Lee in the overall standings within this country and no one could do better than that. I am seeing something that none of the others have. Yes, it's just my opinion, and I am sticking to it.
    5 points
  10. And in my opinion they leave the babies in the gates way too long.
    5 points
  11. and some form of punctuation between picks also makes it a lot easier to read and input must be a night for it I shouldn't be grumpy - the Canes won and the Warriors won, but it's really not that hard
    5 points
  12. The sad thing is that NZTR on one hand go on and on about declining starter numbers and declining foal crops and seem to think that increasing stakes from any pot of gold they can find is the answer, when that strategy has failed to make any difference for decades now. Yet, they show no inclination to fix the handicapping system and give the handicappers a tool to work with that would keep horses in work earning more wagering revenue etc.
    5 points
  13. Palliser

    Brian Martin

    Even though he hasn't called for years, he was great today at Palmy. Head and Shoulders above Rosanowski, so come on get him back fulltime and get rid of Rosanowski as a commentator.
    4 points
  14. A couple of comments I'd like to make. Firstly, well done on.a brilliant sale. Selling to Aussie is not new and a very much needed part of racing. About the contracts to protect the worker, let us not forget that sometimes the trainer or studmaster needs protecting too. Not every worker who walks through the gate is worth keeping. A bad worker can be very difficult to shift. For anyone not happy with the direction this industry is going I trust you have done at least one term on a racing club (or other affilliate) committee, and non-paid to boot. Decisions are rarely made by one person and until you have experienced the committee decision you may be unaware of the difficulties involved.
    4 points
  15. Alan Jones and Linda were also a huge part of shaping Jame's early pastoral care. Raising Calves with his mum and dad Di and Brett.His work ethic. He also had a very early career trip with George Simon and Phil V to Ireland.. NZ since 1980 has had few international rated Hoops. ( defined by premier Group One, wins in at least 3 Countries or jurisdictions but not over jumps ) We have had riding marvels like Brent Thompson ( 4 Cox Plates and Group wins in at least 4 Countries.), Lance O'Sullivan , Australia , Japan NZ J Mac is on target to ride more Group One winners in different jurisdictions than Ryan Moore !
    4 points
  16. Pete Lane posted this link on Page 1 of this thread. https://www.racingnews.co.nz/fogarty-turning-passion-into-career-path/
    4 points
  17. rdytdy

    GOLDEN SLIPPER 2024

    Here’s a breakdown of the major stables and their attempts at the Slipper: James Cummings - 111 entries, one runner Ciaron Maher - 111 entries, no runners Annabel Neasham - 106 entries, no runners Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott - 100 entries for six runners, including the winner. Chris Waller - 94 entries, one runner. Ben, JD and Wil Hayes - 84 entries, no runners Mick Price & Michael Kent Jnr - 78 entries, no runners Peter and Paul Snowden - 56 entries, two runners Tony Gollan - 52 entries, no runners Anthony and Sam Freedman - 41 entries, no runners Michael Freedman - 36 entries, one runner Peter Moody & Katherine Coleman - 35 entries, one runner Tony and Calvin McEvoy - 26 entries, two runners
    4 points
  18. 1. Tauranga R7. 01-03 2. Riccarton R8. 01-04 3. Rosehill R2. 04-05 4. Rosehill R3. 11 5. Rosehill R4. 06 6. Rosehill R6. 04*BB 7. Rosehill R7. 16-18*BB 8. Rosehill R8. 01 9. Rosehill R9. 14-16 10. The Valley R4. 12 11. The Valley R7. 01-12 12. The Valley R9. 06-15 The Roughies haven’t entered the top 6 since the get go, however since being educated this week it’s a total disregard for weight and barriers the Roughies about to be on the Front Page Thanks John
    4 points
  19. Yes Leggy, you are 100% correct. I have a self imposed 7 day ban starting last Monday evening, and damn it, I have come back two days early. Not good enough on my behalf.
    4 points
  20. You can have your opinion ...I will have mine...he still got them to a Cup final that they should of won...lets see what your magic man can do...bit like these big trainers everyone needs assistants.JMO ..no skin off my nose either way...cheers...now back to finding enough winners to beat my friend Chestnut ...cant have PS mouthing off again...bloody Aussies LOL.Am I allowed to say that????Or am I not being funny enough???
    4 points
  21. Thanks for your confidence Nerula but I agree with nomates. Not that I don't think that weight differential can make a difference, but that the amount that handicappers have to play with here is insignificant and has no chance of creating proper handicaps. A very good former NZTR senior handicapper told me the same thing, but then moved on to greener pastures.
    4 points
  22. Watch it Peter. Once you start debating with Leggy you start to go crazy. That’s why I have had to put a self imposed ban on myself from debating with him for 7 days. Be careful is all I can say!
    4 points
  23. Interestingly enough, in the days when I used to follow racing much more closely than I do these days, some of the worst jockeys were in the NI, often in the CD. I never really used to have any Southern jockeys on my "wouldn't touch with a barge pole" list. And the problem in the SI is not the jockeys as much as the shocking programming. That is why form can be inconsistent. And form is equally inconsistent in the CD where a horse can fail in an $18,500 race at New Plymouth and then come out and win a $40,000 at Trentham. And vice versa. That would seldom happen in Australia. Half the horses in any given race in the South aren't racing over the distance they would prefer or in their preferred class or after an ideal gap, but they have to take any opportunities available to them. If they wait for the perfect race coming up next week they have every chance of being balloted out. I feel quite sad when I see a typical $18,500 low key race in the south with 12 starters and six of the jockeys are from the NI, often the very top jockeys like Kennedy and Doyle. How on earth are southern jockeys to gain experience and skills if they can't even get a ride at a low key meeting? Some of them have to drive 6 hours to get two rides. It must be a pretty dispiriting occupation. And when they ride at certain tracks with about six people in attendance and no atmosphere they must wonder why they bother.
    4 points
  24. An interesting short read about James' exceptional career so far https://www.ttrausnz.com.au/edition/2024-03-21/analyse-this-unpacking-james-mcdonalds-path-to-greatness
    3 points
  25. Meydan stages the Dubai World Cup meeting on Saturday afternoon (UK) and a stellar eight race card features five Group 1 races. Twelve go in the Al Quoz Sprint over 1200m on turf and it's a real clash of both the generations and the racing jusrisdictions. Top rated is CALIFORNIA SPENGLE from Hong Kong who usually races over 1400m and won the Queen's Silver Jubilee Cup at the big Sha Tin meeting a fortnight ago. A straight 1200m may seem like a tunring 1400m but I just wonmder if he's going to have the tactical speed to give 13 lbs to the 3-y-o filly STAR OF MYSTERY who is rated only 10 lbs inferior. She kept good company in the UK as a juvenile running well in both the Duchess of Cambridge and the Lowther. She won over 1000m on her first try at Meydan but was turned over at 4/9 in a Group 3 last time so perhaps the extra 200m will help. It'll have to as she'll be mixing it with some experienced sprinters. CASA CREED is a fascinating runner from the Bill Mott stable in America. He was last seen running third in the Breeders Cup Mile but has form at shorter tri;ps including when second in the 1351 Sprint at Riyadh in 2023. Like most Americans, he'll jump and run and might just have the legs of these at this trip. Another to consider is last year's surprise winner DANYAH who had a nice prep run in the Al Fahidi Fort. My idea of the winner is CASA CREEK but I expect another good run from DANYAH. The Golden Shaheen is over 1200m on the Dirt and it looks a three way go between the Americans, the Japanese and the locals. For the Americans, SIBELIUS was last year's winner but he's not done much since and I prefer Wesley Ward's NAKATOMI who was a close third in the Breeders Cup Disrt Sprint. HOPKINS was only a length behind SIBELIUS when fourth in this race last year and is another with serious claims from the American side. REMAKE looks the best of the Japanese - he holds IGNITER on Osaka form and won the Dirt Sprint in Riyadh last time in which BOLD JOURNEY was third. Among the locals, TUZ was seventh in this last year and looked very good back in January while MOUHEEB was also very good, albeit both in Group 3 company and here they are up against some very good foreign runners. It's not a race I find easy to read with conflicting form lines and the quandary as to whether the Meydan Dirt is more like American or Japanese Dirt. NAKATOMI is only a tentative choice. I just think the locals, for all their track experience, just don't have the form quality of the Americans and Japanese. The Dubai Turf over 1800m on the grass is always a strong race. A full field of 16 go to post. In 2022, DO DEUCE was the last horse to beat Equinox in that year's Japanese Derby. We all know how good the second went on to become including a brilliant performance in the 2023 Sheema Classic. As for DO DEUCE, a trip to the Arc didn't end well and he was well beaten in the Tenno Sho and the Japan Cup but with his old rival retired, DO DEUCE won the Arima Kinen in late December. Whether that's good enough to win this I'm not sure. MEASURED TIME leads the local challenge and won the other Group 1 at this trip, the Jebel Hatta, in late January. LORD NORTH won this in 2023 just beating the Japanese DANON BELUGA but the former was turned over at Southwell in the Winter Derby and I'm not convinced. DANON BELUGA is held by DO DEUCE on Japan Cup running but this shorter trip should suit the former. NASHWA is the second Gosden runner and she's very interesting. Soft ground was against her in the Nassau and the Champion Stakes but on her second in the Juddmonte and third in the Irish Champion she is right in this and is my idea of the winner. LUXEMBOURG represents Ballydoyle but he doesn't win that often and while his second in Hong Kong last December was very good, his fourth to SPIRIT DANCER in Riyadh was a shade disappointing. I think at 10s NASHWA is a good each way bet. Twelve go in the Sheema Classic over 2400m on the grass and the £2.7 million first prize has attracted a powerful field. It's wonderful to see AUGUSTE RODIN back as a 4-y-o and on reflection it's clear soft or even slow ground isn't for him. His two flops in the English 2000 Guineas and the King George VI & Queen Elizabeth Diamond Stakes were both on wet turf but on fast ground he was superb in the English Derby, the Irish Derby, the Irish Champion and the Breeders Cup Turf. A flat 2400m looks tailor made and for me he takes a lot of beating. Yet he faces a formidable rival in the Japanese filly LIBERTY ISLAND who gets 5 lbs. She was a runaway winner of the Japan Oaks last year but was beaten four lengths by Equinox in the Japan Cup. That was no disgrace and brings her right into this. It's a mouthwatering prospect but I just favour the English Derby winner over the Japanese Oaks winner. EMILY UPJOHN is no mug having won the Coronation Cup at Epsom and just failed to give 7 lbs to Paddington (the new top NZ stallion I'm told) in the Eclipse. She meets the younger horses on level terms but the two are exceptional and EMILY UPJOHN may want more of a stamina test. The ratings for the twelve vary from 115 to 125 so they are all good horses - the likes of SPIRIT DANCER, JUNKO, SIMCA MILLE and SHAHRYAR are all Group 1 winners in their own right but this is an exceptionally strong race - possibly the best 2400m race outside the Arc all year. Finally, the Dubai World Cup itself over 2000m on the Dirt. It's still worth £5.5 million to the winner for all the Saudi Cup is more valuable. Last year's winner USHBA TESORO was run down by SENOR BUSCADOR at Riyadh, the two both coming off the suicidal early gallop. Will the same happen here? It seems to in these top Dirt races which are run in an American style. The Meydan Dirt has favoured front runners in the past but now seems more equal. KABIRKHAN is the best of the locals but he needs to find 5 lbs to tackle the 1-2 from the Saudi Cup but it's not impossible. DERMA SATOGAKE was runner up in the Breeders Cup Classic but was fifth in Riyadh and I'm not sure the Dubai dirt will paly to his strengths. It looks between the front four for all the likes of LAUREL RIVER and NEWGATE are decent. My gut feeling is the Japanese horse USHBA TESORO will win again. Selections: Al Quoz Sprint: CASA CREEK Golden Shaheen: NAKATOMI Dubai Turf: NASHWA (each way) Sheema Classic: AUGUSTE RODIN World Cup: USHBA TESORO
    3 points
  26. Ohokaman

    GOLDEN SLIPPER 2024

    If you saw the start Pete, she was slow anyway and Collett immediately went closer to the fence from the draw to save extra ground. Only in the straight did she get clear air, and rattled home despite being held up…1400m should suit perfectly. This is what the riders thought of their mount's performance in the Golden Slipper Stakes. 1st – LADY OF CAMELOT (Blake Shinn) It was very exciting. I was getting held up there for a bit, but I just had to bide our time and wait for the opportunity to present and when it did she really let down well. I had the horse to quicken and we just needed the gap and she was great. I'm so happy. 2nd – COLEMAN (Kerrin McEvoy) Huge run by him. Great training effort by Matty. He had to come up to Sydney, back up, had the little foot issue. He felt great the horse, lovely individual. I thought I was the winner at the 300m, he gave a nice kick and Blake just got the splits. Too good the last three or four strides. Brilliant effort by him and by Matt. 3rd – STORM BOY (Ryan Moore) Didn't begin as cleanly as I would have liked. Had to switch my run toward the inside which wasn't ideal. He's a very talented horse. Didn't have the rub of the green today. Probably improve when he goes a bit further. 4th – TRAFFIC WARDEN (Craig Williams) For a horse who is still developing, his performance to run fourth today was exceptional. 5th – MANAAL (Jason Collett) She has gone great. Just the barrier draw really. If she draws a gate she is closer and closer in the finish. 6th – STRAIGHT CHARGE (Tim Clark) I thought it was a brave performance on speed. I felt the winner at the 300m but he still ran really well. 7th – ENEEZA (Damian Lane) She ran super. She is so honest, just had to give some ground from the start and poor barrier. Ultimately I couldn't pick them up. She finished strongly. 8th – SWITZERLAND (James McDonald) He just came off the bridle a long way from home. I think he has come to the end of it. 9th – HOLMES A COURT (Tom Marquand) He went forward into a nice position, relaxed good and ran a solid race. 10th – DUBLIN DOWN (Hugh Bowman) He paid the price for the wider barrier. I was proud of his effort. I thought he had enough at the furlong but is one to follow into his three-year-old career. 11th – FULLY LIT (Sam Clipperton) He ran a really good race. Very brave and have a good kick. Just felt the pinch late. 12th – RUE DE ROYALE (Chad Schofield) I thought he ran very well. He found it a bit quick in the first half but he came off the bridle and quickened nicely. More suited over 1400m. 13th – PROST (Adam Hyeronimus) I thought there was merit to the run. He got back and settled nicely but I felt the speed increased for him when they came out of the chute. It sent him spinning a bit until we got to the furlong really when he made ground late. 14th – BODYGUARD (Mark Zahra) Just didn't finish off today. 15th – SHANGRI LA EXPRESS (Regan Bayliss) He got into a lovely rhythm out in front, had his ears pricked. Just had to come towards the middle of the track. He got a little bit lost out there. Probably a little bit disappointing overall. 16th – HAYASUGI (Jamie Kah) Lucky we got around in the end. She nearly fell over out of the gates and nearly fell over again. A non event today.
    3 points
  27. Idolmite

    Riccarton Commentator

    It's certainly not easy to line them up sometimes, especially when they're wide apart and/or 5 or 6 abreast, but it's funny sometimes how they have the winner fighting back to retake a lead they never surrendered anyway! But we only have to watch - the commentator has to think what to say at the same time AND remember all of the colours and names. It's certainly not something may of us could do.
    3 points
  28. no one comes within cooooeeee of the late great Jack Styring
    3 points
  29. nomates

    GOLDEN SLIPPER 2024

    The scary thing for me is that the numbers that all the factory stables entered just how many will be seen next season or even at all , after being munted after being pushed to get to this race .
    3 points
  30. Janitor mate, I know I'm already there, there's still 2 places to fill in both sections, and in the Trotters we got a cloud over one of our 2 guns, MMountain is gunna need to be absolutely cherry for this, gawd I hope they get OscarB sorted we're gunna need him, it's certainly a race night to get both excited an nervous about, that's pretty good team of guns comin from Oz.....oh well it is what it is; bring it I say, lets get it on I can't wait.... Cheers Iraklis
    3 points
  31. Well this comment from January 20th has certainly proven to be prophetic. It was made after Race 1 on Day 1 of this competition. I'd just landed a Best Bet quinella and a collect $775.20 from the first race (Alf called for me to be swabbed), and narrowly topped (by less than $10 from the current #1, winner69) the individual standings at the end of Day 1 with $1167.20. Ten weeks later I can't even collect anywhere near half the amount over 12 races that I originally collected from one race. Talk about peaking too early. A bad case of premature something I should get this result framed. It's been all downhill ever since One needs to AVERAGE $750 per week to stay on top around here. Congratulations to all those that have successfully humbled me since opening day Still, somehow I'm still sitting 7th, and going in I didn't expect to make the top 24, so I'm still have so much fun. Thank you so much, Scooby and John. Trentham R4 # Name Jockey/Driver/Trainer Win Place 4 The Odyssey Courtney Barnes 21.60 4.80 3 Nereus Jonathan Riddell 1.70 6 Final Return Chris Dell 3.00 Bet Type Runners Dividend Quinella 3,4 48.30
    3 points
  32. Individual aggregates after Week 10 Winner69 assumes top spot and Sayer and Fiery Falcon rocket up the standings. Quite a contrast with Winner69 atop the individual standings and his team at the other extreme
    3 points
  33. Yeah congrats to Avantage. We had a day to forget. As Steve Hansen once said, let's flush it down the dunny and move on.
    3 points
  34. Yes high scoring today relative to other weeks. Across all 48 entrants we broke even today. We're normally around the 75% - 85% mark.
    3 points
  35. A very high scoring game today. Well done to the teams that broke the magical $2400. It’s damn hard to do. Thanks John for another great day of scoring and oh so quickly.
    3 points
  36. Week 10 - Rosehill R9 - Final race # Name Jockey/Driver/Trainer Win Place 12 Zapateo Kerrin McEvoy 31.50 6.90 11 Sunshine In Paris Jason Collett 2.20 14 Front Page Tyler Schiller 3.50 Bet Type Runners Dividend Quinella 11,12 96.10 Showgate came up just short of the bonus point while Mr Tiz clawed their way to that point - pretty much courtesy of Winner69 who scored well today and submitted picks for Dogzstar. Alf's best bet on the roughie turned a 1-4 deficit into a 3-2 win for Horlicks - well done Phil!!
    3 points
  37. Whilst I remember, I'd just like to give a shout out to kiwi Jaylah Kennedy, an apprentice in Aust that I hope will get a lot more rides, tough going up against all those Metro top riders and her ride on Belle Plaisir today at The Valley was top notch.
    3 points
  38. Hats off to Jayne, with her overview of Johnny Rocker before the race, she said he looked well, ready to run, he was fast and they were giving him every chance in the way he looked today.
    3 points
  39. 3 points
  40. Diss Is Dramatic had had 2 runs on a Heavy track prior to today, for zip. This is what the jockey thought of the most recent of those 2 runs :- Go figure, huh !
    3 points
  41. Tighter than the Premier league . Whatever happens I don't think anyone can complain at the enjoyment level , been fantastic .
    3 points
  42. Round 10 - the penultimate round, so it's moving day. The three bottom teams (Mr Tiz, Showgate and Mufhasa) need to win today to keep their top 6 hopes alive. The top three teams (Bonecrusher, McGinty and Veandercross) want to win to advance their chances of a top 2 finish and a Bye in week 1 of the play-offs. The other six teams from 4th to 9th are only separated by 3 points and will be hoping to move in the right direction today. Bring it on!!
    3 points
  43. Revival? Didn't he play in Credence Clearwater Revival?
    3 points
  44. 1. Tauranga R7 - 6,13 2. Riccarton R8- 1,4 3. Rosehill R2- 3,4 4. Rosehill R3- 2,11 5. Rosehill R4- 7,8 6. Rosehill R6- 2,4 7. Rosehill R7- 11,16 BB 8. Rosehill R8 - 1,14 9. Rosehill R9- 1,5 10. The Valley R4- 11,15 BB 11. The Valley R7- 1,12 12. The Valley R9- 6,8 Go well team…..
    3 points
  45. Hello 1. Tauranga R7: 6-14 2. Riccarton R8: 1-6 3. Rosehill R2: 3-7 4. Rosehill R3: 1-5 5. Rosehill R4: 2-12 .. BB 6. Rosehill R6: 4-7 7. Rosehill R7: 1-10 8. Rosehill R8: 7-9 9. Rosehill R9: 4-11 .. BB 10. The Valley R4: 1-12 11. The Valley R7: 3-13 12. The Valley R9: 3-6 Thanks John and Scooby Wishing you the best today Scooby in all that you do Let's go Habits of the Rough!
    3 points
  46. best of luck to your team John. A great days racing coming Up !! Here are some to race against Lucky Liz today and her team of Show gates. Rough Habit giving them the slip in the run home all going well. 1. Tauranga R7 / 6 - 14 2. Riccarton R8/ 1 - 2 3. Rosehill R2 / 5 - 11 4. Rosehill R3 / 3 - 5 BB 5. Rosehill R4 / 6 - 12 BB 6. Rosehill R6 / 2 - 3 7. Rosehill R7 / 16 - 17 8. Rosehill R8 / 1 - 14 9. Rosehill R9 / 4 - 11 10. The Valley R4 / 12 - 15 11. The Valley R7 / 8 - 11 12. The Valley R9 / 4 - 6
    3 points
  47. Please don't feel you have to reply, but FYI it was Brett Scelley a decade ago who told me that he needed at least an 8-9kg spread to effectively handicap within the rating bands. That was at a meeting in Petone because NZTR had asked me to analyse the impact of the handicapping changes that had occurred following the Mark Webbey review a couple of years earlier, which we did pro bono. What we found then pretty much concurred with his thinking. This from the summary of that report. "The analysis clearly shows both that higher weighted horses are significantly outperforming lower weighted ones, and that females are significantly out performing males." My current data says that the situation has worsened if anything. Not a great way to create competitive racing that will build wagering revenue.
    3 points
  48. And here's how the Darts landed from Oz - #48 Pardon My Dust 1. Tauranga R7 6 * 12 2. Riccarton R8 7 3. Rosehill R2 3 BEST BET 4. Rosehill R3 7 BEST BET 5. Rosehill R4 2 * 7 6. Rosehill R6 2 7. Rosehill R7 4 * 12 8. Rosehill R8 5 * 8 9. Rosehill R9 5 * 16 10. The Valley R4 4 * 11 11. The Valley R7 2 * 4 12. The Valley R9 7 * 10 Thanks John and Scooby
    3 points
  49. A good result so far Ohokaman Hobsons pledge do a great jobH
    3 points