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Cambridge Stats

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JEWELS WRAP (2) - Draws Didn't Play the Role Expected in Jewels Outcome

That All Stars could win six races on the card when only drawing one marble inside 4 with 20 horses would have to be considered unusual though to be fair to Cambridge the disadvantages of the draws there have often been overstated. In 2014 five of the nine winners came off the second line. Still  what All Stars achieved on Saturday was remarkable even though bad draws cost a few of our horses their best winning chance.  We won with our only ace draw (Winterfell) but also from gates 8 and 10 and a widish 5 in a very competitive juvenile race, where wide draws were expensive commodities for horses like Jesse Duke in particular.

While it is natural to bemoan bad draws (and even good draws can be unsuitable for some horses) low numbers are not always best. The 3 gate became rather notorious at Cambridge. There hasn't been a winner from three in the last 27 Jewels races here. There have been only two winners from Gate 2 and three winners from gate 1 is a lower percentage than you might expect given the general consensus on draws.  In the same period there have been SEVEN winners from gate 5. 

 

We should all keep these stats in mind next time the Jewels go to Cambridge

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I've watched the draws from the first Jewels and they have never been the influence that most on here predict.

My theory is that the best horses have an edge and the speed the races run at generally result in the cream rising to the top.

The start usually sees a  real burn , then easing off in the straight which is when the top horses get handy and ready to control things and they can run home fast enough that its physically impossible for those back in the field to make up ground especially out wide !

All this after a long hard season ,and often those that get the soft run on the fence get sucked into 3rd or 4th but can't quicken at that speed enough to beat the top horses !

The Group 1 horses have an edge when the big money is up....a couple of times an upset looked possible on Saturday ,a young trotter broke while the other just came to the end of its run.

Interesting that the Aussie [Tritton] who said he'd lead at all costs had a change of heart once the heat went on ...twice !

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Purdon/Rasmussen 21 starters- 6 wins

R Dunn 9 starters-0 wins

C Dalgety 6 starters-1 win

G Hope 2 starters-0 wins

M Kerr 2 starters-0 wins

R Green 6 starters-0 wins

B Purdon 3 starters-0 wins

S Reid 2 starters-1 win

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