RaceCafe..#1...Tipsters Thread.... Share Your Fancies For Fun...Lets See Who The Best Tipsters Here Are.
GNG

NZ Handicapping

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I am fed up trying to understand our handicapping. When ringing Mr Strictland to explain his reasons, he fails to do so impromptu, requesting to ring back later. Ill like to know who he's checking his ratings with? This feels like he has no confidence in his system. In fact, he has no method in his system. The cadet has no idea too.

As pointed regularly on this forum, there have been many examples. But lately, I cant understand how:

  1. Patrick Erin (again): In NZ, he was rated 101, four points more than Five To Mightnight at 97. But in Sydney Cup, Parick Erin was rated 97 and Five to Midnight rated 104. Thats a 11 point swing!!! Patrick Erin was on the (50kg) minimum and FTM carrying 2.5kgs more. Also, Zacada rated 91 in NZ, but was rated 99 in Sydney, so that 6kgs swing in Patrick Erins favour compared to NZ handicapper rating. How is NZ handicapper rating so different to Sydney? Its miles different in the spread.

       2. How is Avantage as a 2yo, rated the same as our better 3yo fillies Dijon Bleu and Melody Belle, the three are rated 85. Dijon Bleu and Melody Belle should be in the mid 90s after what they performed this year.

       3. Rock On Wood: Clearly Strictland has made a mistake giving him 17 points by running fourth in the Levin Classic. Enough to bring out a Press release (that has been deleted from the handicapper blog since) to justify it. "hopefully he wins a race to justify his rating." 

A horse is rated on what they'e done, not on potential!! Note: He lost 5 points in his three runs after the Levin Classic.

       4. The Te Aroha Breeders Stakes, Miss Wilson (1st) given 8 points to 103; and Nicoletta (3rd) given 9 points to 98, were given hefty penalties for one race (fillies and mares race albeit a G1) by splitting The Auld Floozie rated 102.

How can Miss Wilson now be rated higher than Lizzie L'Amour (102)? Thats worse than stupidity! Based on one run!

       5. I am at a loss how Strictland rates these horses coming back form Hong Kong. Jetwings was rated 95 in HK, racing in G3 company, and strictland has rated it 74 here.  Yes, hes gone 2 average runs here settling back in NZ, but he better than rated 74 going by his Hong Kong form and rating. Also recent winner Italian-bred Smart Dragon was rated 80 in Hong Kong, class 2 and strictland rated him 74 here. 
Are our rated-75 gallopers rated equivilent to Hong Kongs class 2? Thats insane Strictland to think that!

I have read in the past by posters PFP, Cornelius, Leggy etc...there are many blunders.

http://www.racecafe.co.nz/forums/index.php?/topic/64068-yes-george-we-know-how-to-do-it-the-pity-is-you-apparently-don%E2%80%99t/

Can anyone explain why NZTR haven't (or have they) asked former handicapper for 30 odd years, Dean Nowell to supervise?

The sheer amount of Strictland's blunders due to lack of experience as a handicapper? 

In Rock On Wood Press Release Handicapper blog, Strictland states "we will undertake an end of season 2yo-3yo review in July."

Who is we?  

Unlike you PFP, I dont think Sherwin should be on the ratings review. Hes one of our biggest owners, has horses at a punting stable. It would be like David Ellis in the same capacity. It should not be allowed. Imagine Lloyd Williams in charge of the ratings review in Victoria?????

Bernard, the rating system is in real bad shape. Every trainer knows it. Some trainers are taking advantage of Strictand's inexperience.

At my and other training centres, trainers are in an agreement to have Dean Nowell back as handicapper in some capacity (as Chief or as supervisor) to clean the ratings mess up.

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Point 1 - Correct PFP. South Island races are being over-rated. Change needed here.

A side note is that a horse can have a different rating between NZ, Queensland, NSW and Victoria. No symmetry. But seems endemic of racing in general, not being able to work together!

Points 2,3,4 - My feeling is that NZ is not happy with conventional Ratings Based Handicapping. There aren't any errors here. That is how it works. Perhaps NZ needs a new system?? Or a hybrid?

Point 5. Fair point. Although horses aren't coming back from HK because they are flying - usually injury related. Agree, Jetwings rating looks wrong, but he did bleed in HK, and has not run to 74 in two runs here.

 

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Too technical for me people this NZ handicapping  but a good watch on you tube is Matt Chapman from At The Races show " Ask the Handicapper" . Phil Smith head UK handicapper puts himself up on TV and he gets a right grilling . Quite funny at times but also quite good insight to their methods . Be good if trackside gave the odd grilling . Makes a bit of interest.Always a good read racecafe.

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Im going to reopen this handicapping debate again. Talking to other trainers and owners, they are like me that our ratings system is f..ked.

Strickland goes from one extreme to another.

Now he's treating the ratings as TIMEFORM - rated on a horses one run as its peak performance.

Prince Jabeel got 20 points for winning a Group 3 City of Auckland Cup. From 70 to 90!!!!! Beat 11 runners (7 on the minimum 53.5kg weight). Gets 20 points??
It ran 3rd in a Rating 72 previous start. Now its .5kg off topweight in the Wellington Cup??

Santa Monica got 19 points winning the Group 1 Railway. From 83 to 102!!!!! Now in top 10 horses in NZ after winning its first open race. Got a good run while others didn't.
It couldn't beat Indecision with 53kg (7kgs less than topweight) a few days earlier.

Why does Strictland take a day or two later to re-rate the Stakes races? A meeting will have done his re-ratings but Stakes races are done a day or two later?
Why? Is he checking with outside sources?

He isn't watching races. When hes taking points off from horses that have been interfered with and are named in Stipes reports.

And he continues taking points off in Group races and horses running in unsuitable races, is why we have no open grade horses now.

He has no feel (idea) for the job as handicapper.

The system is dysfunctional.

And having complaints REJECTED by Sherwin (the complaints adjudicator) one of NZs biggest owners manager is a conflict of interest. 

Strictland didn't get the job by earning it. Was given it with NO experience and now we are copping it!

He had less than a year as a Assistant and got it after his boss was found to be corrupt and betting when he shouldn't and now is a TAB bookie!

Its unprofessional.

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