If youwant to back the jockey ...

[Maximus 429]

At what point would you start backing a leading hoop with this formline? Any time from now, perhaps?

·      113 rides in March

·      12 wins, 7 x 2nd, 10 x 3^rd (SR about 9.5) …five completed race days with no winners

·      Longest losing sequence: 27 rides without a win

·      9 wins from first 54 rides in March (SR about 6.0); 3 wins from last 59 rides (SR: 19.9)

 

 ·      103 rides in April

·      12 wins, 8 x 2nd, 13 x 3^rd = 12 of 103 = SR 8.3

·      5 wins from first 52 rides in first half of April

·      7 wins from last 51 rides in second half of April

·      Longest losing sequence: 14 rides without a win 

 

No winners yet in May!

[Maximus 429]

At what point would you start backing a leading hoop with this formline? Any time from now, perhaps?

·      113 rides in March

·      12 wins, 7 x 2nd, 10 x 3^rd (SR about 9.5) …five completed race days with no winners

·      Longest losing sequence: 27 rides without a win

·      9 wins from first 54 rides in March (SR about 6.0); 3 wins from last 59 rides (SR: 19.9)

 

 ·      103 rides in April

·      12 wins, 8 x 2nd, 13 x 3^rd = 12 of 103 = SR 8.3

·      5 wins from first 52 rides in first half of April

·      7 wins from last 51 rides in second half of April

·      Longest losing sequence: 14 rides without a win 

 

No winners yet in May!

[dbtab 95]

Who are we talking about

[Insider 3,947]

16 hours ago, dbtab said:

Who are we talking about

Bloody good question!

[Gruff 2,790]

VC by the look

[Maximus 429]

not VC ..since its such a good question I'll let you speculate a little  longer but point out that the hoop in question is currently 1 win and 1 placegetter from the last 20 mounts,..in fact has weighed in (ie first 5) on only 4 occasions.... overdue?

[chevy86 2,704]

Sam Collett

[Maximus 429]

correctimundo Chevy...she has 2 rides today and 6 at Te Rapa tomorrow...so the question is ...do we start backing the country's leading hoop to  restore her strike rate!????

[Gruff 2,790]

1 hour ago, weasel57 said:

correctimundo Chevy...she has 2 rides today and 6 at Te Rapa tomorrow...so the question is ...do we start backing the country's leading hoop to  restore her strike rate!????

Or is it just a matter of not getting the right mounts?

[chevy86 2,704]

1 hour ago, Gruff said:

Or is it just a matter of not getting the right mounts?

 

What a brilliant analysis Gruff!!

 Contemporary thought (not including me) is trying to convince us that any success these days must be due to the the trainer, jockey, or both. Plenty of "human components" are wonderful horse attendants but if the horse is slow there is nothing you can do about it. Similarly happens with sports teams--if they are not performing the trainer is no bloody good, and if they win there is a training genius in charge. Let's just remember the All Blacks won the World Cup "in spite" of Graham Henry.

And don't forget Lydia--it is ultimately down to HER ability as she showed on her return to the winner's circle after that mongrel Pom Leadbetter had crafted a Jim Furyk swing for her, and when it let her down he blamed her parents.

[Gruff 2,790]

So we blame her Agent. Have to blame someone surely 

[Maximus 429]

I think fatigue is a factor, not just for Sam, but all jockeys who chase premierships or specific winning targets eg 100 in a season. Sam is a very good horsewoman, no doubt about it.

Fatigue is not just from riding on raceday - it is trials and riding work, too.

Add the extra component of travel - esp to the distant meetings from home base.

Prior to todays meet at Pukekohe, Sam had racked up an astonishing 940 raceday rides this season (160 more than the next most prolific in that respect, cousin Alysha on 780).

Quick comparison ...857 total rides last season...the highest I can see from past 5 years by anyone is 950 in an entire season (M Cameron).. Sam did that with 3 months to spare!

maybe Sam wants to be the first to 1000 rides for a season ..well, she'll get there easily at this rate!

Footnote: on a favoured runner Zenvo (FF $3 fav) today ...led comfortably from the hop, allowed challengers to go outside it on the corner rather than get widest and first to the better conditions. Zenvo floundered in last 50m, fin 5th ...punters done .... now, is that fair enough (eg riding to instructions?) or just not smart riding from a tired jockey?

You be the judge...and none of this will stop me from backing her in future! I's just a fascinating equation, balancing quality with quantity to get the best results for the people paying for your skill and services.

 

[chevy86 2,704]

May be some truth in your theory weasel but she only had 2 rides today. Hardly taxing I would have thought, especially for a young person. Pumper or the Magic Man would have reason to be coming up short on stamina at their ages.

[Maximus 429]

1 hour ago, chevy86 said:

May be some truth in your theory weasel but she only had 2 rides today. Hardly taxing I would have thought, especially for a young person. Pumper or the Magic Man would have reason to be coming up short on stamina at their ages.

yes only two rides, both unplaced... the tiredness I am referring too is the cumulative tiredness of all that riding travelling etc sustained over many months ... and to her great credit. no suspension since June 2017

[army 156]

11 hours ago, Gruff said:

Or is it just a matter of not getting the right mounts?

  Sulliman is still green and if you have a good look he wanted to dive in behind another horse up the straight if he hadnt done that he would have won. 

[Gruff 2,790]

22 minutes ago, army said:

  Sulliman is still green and if you have a good look he wanted to dive in behind another horse up the straight if he hadnt done that he would have won. 

I’ve followed the horse from its trials and have a bad habit of paying very close attention Army ,Gubelini is the biggest shareholder with a large contingent of female owners and Sam is the utter professional going above and beyond the call, the horse is refered to as ‘ the project’ by gubes and it’s one he will be glad he persevered 

[army 156]

50 minutes ago, Gruff said:

I’ve followed the horse from its trials and have a bad habit of paying very close attention Army ,Gubelini is the biggest shareholder with a large contingent of female owners and Sam is the utter professional going above and beyond the call, the horse is refered to as ‘ the project’ by gubes and it’s one he will be glad he persevered 

Yes I am one of those female owners and he is going to be a good horse when he learns the game

 

[Maximus 429]

On ‎2‎/‎05‎/‎2018 at 7:11 PM, weasel57 said:

At what point would you start backing a leading hoop with this formline? Any time from now, perhaps?

·      113 rides in March

·      12 wins, 7 x 2nd, 10 x 3^rd (SR about 9.5) …five completed race days with no winners

·      Longest losing sequence: 27 rides without a win

·      9 wins from first 54 rides in March (SR about 6.0); 3 wins from last 59 rides (SR: 19.9)

 

 ·      103 rides in April

·      12 wins, 8 x 2nd, 13 x 3^rd = 12 of 103 = SR 8.3

·      5 wins from first 52 rides in first half of April

·      7 wins from last 51 rides in second half of April

·      Longest losing sequence: 14 rides without a win 

 

No winners yet in May!

update.. the slump continues ...must end soon, surely.

Sam has been 'stuck' for a while

May 2018 - so far

29 rides for 3 (Top 3) placings ...  and he last 8 rides in April produced 1 placing...so its 37 rides without a winner (and only 4 paying a dividend).

Come on girl, there's a Premiership to win!

 

 

[Gruff 2,790]

1 minute ago, weasel57 said:

update.. the slump continues ...must end soon, surely.

Sam has been 'stuck' for a while

May 2018 - so far

29 rides for 3 (Top 3) placings ...  and he last 8 rides in April produced 1 placing...so its 37 rides without a winner (and only 4 paying a dividend).

Come on girl, there's a Premiership to win!

 

 

You got the stats on how rough these ponies were Wease?

[Maximus 429]

1 minute ago, Gruff said:

You got the stats on how rough these ponies were Wease?

no...I've just noted their finishing place, race by race for a couple of months ...but there seems to be a mixture of (shall we say ) decent rides and scrubbers ....a rather large number of them have been finishing 7th or worse! 

I don't know who her agent is and I'm not being critical of him or her ...just observing a trend that can end and reverse at any time (maybe tomorrow!)

[Gruff 2,790]

Just now, weasel57 said:

no...I've just noted their finishing place, race by race for a couple of months ...but there seems to be a mixture of (shall we say ) decent rides and scrubbers ....a rather large number of them have been finishing 7th or worse! 

I don't know who her agent is and I'm not being critical of him or her ...just observing a trend that can end and reverse at any time (maybe tomorrow!)

I see she’s booked to ride a horse when another she’s been riding looks a certainty...if that’s the agents doing my god

[army 156]

4 hours ago, Gruff said:

I see she’s booked to ride a horse when another she’s been riding looks a certainty...if that’s the agents doing my god

Yes I was surprised she went was on the other horse. Mum will do a good job

[Gruff 2,790]

It’s all over,mamma knows best

[Maximus 429]

16 hours ago, Gruff said:

It’s all over,mamma knows best

well the drought has finally been broken at Ashburton on the last of 7 rides.

Golden Bay today was Sam's first winner in 38 rides in May, and only the second since a winning treble at Trentham on 22 April..

in between, about 44 non-winners and only a handful of placings.

Hopefully she' has started a purple patch!

[Gruff 2,790]

32 minutes ago, weasel57 said:

well the drought has finally been broken at Ashburton on the last of 7 rides.

Golden Bay today was Sam's first winner in 38 rides in May, and only the second since a winning treble at Trentham on 22 April..

in between, about 44 non-winners and only a handful of placings.

Hopefully she' has started a purple patch!

I’m going 12 more before next one