Ponderosa8 1,351 Report post Posted March 10, 2018 11 hours ago, scooby3051 said: The jock stole it good on him... not his fault the others were sleeping. Agree, we were saying the exact same thing when Authentic Paddy won the Zabeel Classic. And Paddy's connections must absolutely love G1 2000M WFA races at Ellerslie, because since that Zabeel win he has run 11th, 11th, and 10th but comes up and picks up another cheque, while Saint Emilion did in the Bonecrusher what he did in the Zabeel... Could have been an interesting race yesterday if both Paddy and Saint really wanted to lead.!! Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Report post Posted March 10, 2018 25 minutes ago, Kloppite said: Why is he a cockhead for believing that? It's the truth. Have you ever wondered why they give better horses more weight in handicap races? Yeah if half a kilogram doesn't make a difference then why not round up to the nearest kilo! Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
barryb 2,064 Report post Posted March 10, 2018 6 minutes ago, 2Admin2 said: Yeah if half a kilogram doesn't make a difference then why not round up to the nearest kilo! Made a fool of yourself in Bowman thread and continuing it here. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Portfolio 728 Report post Posted March 10, 2018 Half kilo? Well, who knows if it cost him race, but it certainly wouldn’t have helped. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
barryb 2,064 Report post Posted March 10, 2018 https://www.punters.com.au/forum/horse-racing/WEIGHT-_5640/ Pretty much spot on. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Report post Posted March 10, 2018 8 minutes ago, barryb said: Made a fool of yourself in Bowman thread and continuing it here. Rubbish. If half a kilo is of no consequence then why have half kilo increments? Why bother with handicapping at all? Your argument is based on statistics from a punting perspective. Invariably the better horses are weighted more and therefore statistically show up winning their fair share or more of races. The bigger question here is that OP is continually riding overweight and I doubt he would get that much leeway in OZ. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
barryb 2,064 Report post Posted March 10, 2018 Rubbish, the statement was that 500grms stopped a horse winning the cup. Regardless of who was riding, its a complete nonsense. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Report post Posted March 10, 2018 2 minutes ago, barryb said: Rubbish, the statement was that 500grms stopped a horse winning the cup. Regardless of who was riding, its a complete nonsense. A fair question though when considering the winning margin after 3200m. An equally fair question is why bother with half a kilo increments if 500 grams makes not difference. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
barryb 2,064 Report post Posted March 10, 2018 2 minutes ago, 2Admin2 said: A fair question though when considering the winning margin after 3200m. An equally fair question is why bother with half a kilo increments if 500 grams makes not difference. we agree then. It makes minimal difference. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diver Dan 187 Report post Posted March 10, 2018 Really interesting topic but you have to take it all in perspective. 500gms only makes a difference after a certain point - establishing that point for each individual horse/weight of horse/distance of race is difficult. My best analogy would be: When Usain Bolt was at his best - you added a 300gm chocolate bar each time he one, at what point would he start losing - maybe 10 bars??? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Report post Posted March 10, 2018 6 minutes ago, barryb said: we agree then. It makes minimal difference. I've always been of the opinion that our weight scale is screwed and provides little in the way of a handicapping tool. However there was less than a lip in the winning margin yesterday so a "minimal difference" might have been enough. Now half a kilo may not make a difference between horses carrying the same weight but Ladies First carried 54kg - Five to Midnight was carded to carry 56kg but carried 56.5kg a difference of 2.5kg not the 2kg carded. That extra half a kilo may have made a difference. The bigger issue is OP keeps riding over weight and the punter doesn't often know about it. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
scooby3051 10,863 Report post Posted March 11, 2018 3 hours ago, barryb said: Are you f--king for real Hesi. So 500grms stops the horse winning? you are a complete cockhead if you even remotely believe that. Bosson is worth 3-4 lengths to the horse before any other consideration is taken into account, you really do post non thinking shit at times. Barry weight will stop a train if you put enough on... and play the topic not the poster. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
barryb 2,064 Report post Posted March 11, 2018 4 minutes ago, scooby3051 said: Barry weight will stop a train if you put enough on... I think we can all figure that out, but 500grms will barely stop a fly, least of all have an effect on a Horse. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Report post Posted March 11, 2018 3 minutes ago, barryb said: I think we can all figure that out, but 500grms will barely stop a fly, least of all have an effect on a Horse. Yes but did taking the weight difference from 2kg to 2.5kg make a difference? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
barryb 2,064 Report post Posted March 11, 2018 1 minute ago, 2Admin2 said: Yes but did taking the weight difference from 2kg to 2.5kg make a difference? No. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
chiknsmack 480 Report post Posted March 11, 2018 What if Opie had ridden a kilo over, Barry. Would that have made a difference? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Report post Posted March 11, 2018 3 minutes ago, barryb said: No. What if they had both carried the same weight (minus the female 2kg) would that have made a difference? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
barryb 2,064 Report post Posted March 11, 2018 3 minutes ago, chiknsmack said: What if Opie had ridden a kilo over, Barry. Would that have made a difference? No Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
barryb 2,064 Report post Posted March 11, 2018 2 minutes ago, 2Admin2 said: What if they had both carried the same weight (minus the female 2kg) would that have made a difference? No Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Report post Posted March 11, 2018 Just now, barryb said: No Based on your statistical analysis? If so then the currently handicapping model is completely screwed. Why bother! Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
barryb 2,064 Report post Posted March 11, 2018 The difference in performance between 54 & 58kg is so small its barely noticeable. However I am more than happy for you to think that weight is a big influencer & I will focus on the far more important things, like speed, race tempo, in running position. You focus on weight and barrier draws. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Report post Posted March 11, 2018 7 minutes ago, barryb said: The difference in performance between 54 & 58kg is so small its barely noticeable. However I am more than happy for you to think that weight is a big influencer & I will focus on the far more important things, like speed, race tempo, in running position. You focus on weight and barrier draws. No I don't focus on weight unless the spread is greater than 4kg. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
barryb 2,064 Report post Posted March 11, 2018 If weight was the great equaliser, then you would expect to see a similar s/r across all TAB No:s. Below is handicap races in Aust/NZ since Jan 2016, TAB No 1 winning nearly 16% of all Handicap races. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Report post Posted March 11, 2018 3 minutes ago, barryb said: If weight was the great equaliser, then you would expect to see a similar s/r across all TAB No:s. Below is handicap races in Aust/NZ since Jan 2016, TAB No 1 winning nearly 16% of all Handicap races. That's fine Barry but has the data been normalised by weight rather than saddle cloth number? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leggy 4,076 Report post Posted March 11, 2018 4 hours ago, 2Admin2 said: Invariably the better horses are weighted more and therefore statistically show up winning their fair share or more of races. If they are winning more than their fair share (as they are), then the weight difference is not making enough difference to equalise chances. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
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