RaceCafe..#1...Tipsters Thread.... Share Your Fancies For Fun...Lets See Who The Best Tipsters Here Are.
Whyisit

Opies new job ?

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After yesterday’s ride on Embellish Opie could take up being a butcher.Certainly butchered his ride on Embellish got reprimanded by the Stipes for what he tried to do. Finished on strongly towards the finish would have gone close to winning.

 

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A bit harsh....Regan Bayliss was the one that caused the interference and put out for 25 meetings.

Watch Embellish get knocked over then steam home on the fence when the race is all over.....will be interesting to see where he goes.

https://www.racenet.com.au/news/regan-bayliss-admits-putting-fellow-jockey-in-danger-in-controversial-australian-guineas-2018-20180303

 

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Stipes report 

Embellish (NZ) Opie Bosson was severely reprimanded for attempting a run at the 500m between Black Sail (NZ) and Addictive Nature where there was insufficient room. During the incident Black Sail (NZ) was brushed on three occasions before Embellish (NZ) relinquished its attempt for the run.

Clearly if he hadn’t tried that above and stayed close to the fence where he had been all race  he would have gone close to winning,it was a clear run for him

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19 minutes ago, Whyisit said:

Stipes report 

Embellish (NZ) Opie Bosson was severely reprimanded for attempting a run at the 500m between Black Sail (NZ) and Addictive Nature where there was insufficient room. During the incident Black Sail (NZ) was brushed on three occasions before Embellish (NZ) relinquished its attempt for the run.

Clearly if he hadn’t tried that above and stayed close to the fence where he had been all race  he would have gone close to winning,it was a clear run for him

Hindsight is a great thing... maybe he had an off day even the best of them can get it wrong sometimes...move on.

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12 minutes ago, chevy86 said:

You are always advising people on this forum to move on--are you on a retainer with Crown Worldwide Removals or some other logistics outfit? Clearly OP had a Barry Crocker and the poster has an opinion.

And he expressed so ... no need to over and over the same track like yourself ....

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Just had a look-see at Guineas replay. IMO hard to make a case that Embellish was hard done by, except by his rider. Big roomy course Flemington..OP went wide at the 500 when he could have waited a lot longer before making that call. But maybe he was thinking hed cop the backwash from tiring runners. In my view Embellish is not quite top quality against the best from over there at this trip.

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You wont know Weasel until they learn to use an Aussie jockey, why they persist with a Kiwi is beyond me. I was at Rosehill when J Riddell won on Jimmy, that was a great ride, but Kiwi's are up against it riding against those top line jocks who ride 6 days a week.....

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Geez P4P Trump should get you to defend him when he's impeached!

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1 hour ago, poundforpound said:

Here’s my take on it ( I may as well pretend to be an expert too ).

OP has given him a great ride during the run.

They've gone a solid gallop so you can reasonably presume those three up front who had them strung out will stop and come back on top of the field late in the race.

On that basis OP has eased off the fence after they’ve turned in to try to find some clear air, and to stay on the favourite Grunt’s back (they’d raced side by side across the top ).

He did attempt to slide into a tight gap, but simultaneously he’s been chutneyed by a couple outside him ( I presume that jockey was held accountable ).

Once he’d been held up, squeezed out, and lost his momentum OP has sat up and thought to himself “I’ve been chutneyed here at a critical time in the race so let’s look after this horse and save him for another day “, as good caring jockeys do. My opinion is that severe checks at that stage of a race are insurmountable so you should sit up on them.

Anyway after he’s sat up Embellish has got himself balanced again and started to round off rather nicely, so OP has given him a couple of flicks with the Stick and he’s found the line quite strongly.

If I owned that horse I’d be happy, I certainly wouldn’t be blaming OP, and I’d go looking for another nice mile somewhere against his own age, or I’d go for a race like the Donnie against the old horses, off a low mark, with a view to aiming him for a decent 2000m WFA some time soon.

I’m correct and accurate here ( as I always am ) but over to you critics now, for your wrong opinion .

 

 

 

 

Spot on sunshine....;)

Analysis: We got a reminder of the genius of Damian Oliver here having Grunt one off the rail in sixth spot from the outside gate, for those of us that were on we felt very comfortable from then on. Cliffs Edge did plenty of work to find the front and he never really eased up at any stage going three or four lengths clear straightening, he looked to be travelling but the early effort told when the strong colts joined in at the 200m. Peaceful State never stopped chasing and they were dominant through the line. Bring Me Roses is on target for the fillies races in Sydney over ground and the big story out of the race was the 25-meeting suspension for reckless riding for Regan Bayliss. He flattened Aloisia and Levendi at the top of the straight. To her credit Aloisia still managed to run the fastest last 200-metre split in the race without being tested, she’s on target for Sydney. Embellish also had no luck in the straight and hit the line hard late.
Money Trail: There was a good move for Grunt $6 into $5 before easing to start $5.50. Peaceful State was $11 into $8.50 but as much as $15 was bet in the morning. Cliff’s Edge was the other good move, he touched $5 before trimming to start $4.60. Aloisia was unwanted $7 out to $11.
Blackbooker: Stick with Peaceful State as he heads to Sydney, the stable has said all along he’ll be better beyond the mile and the form out of this race will hold up.

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1 hour ago, poundforpound said:

Here’s my take on it ( I may as well pretend to be an expert too )

I looked up previous winning jockeys of the Australian Guineas and couldn’t see a L Molloy amongst them funnily enough mine wasn’t there also  So you can pretend to be an expert along with me.

OP has given him a great ride during the run.

True if I was the owner you couldn’t have wished for more.

They've gone a solid gallop so you can reasonably presume those three up front who had them strung out will stop and come back on top of the field late in the race.

Not necessarily but I guess it suits your version.

On that basis OP has eased off the fence after they’ve turned in to try to find some clear air, and to stay on the favourite Grunt’s back (they’d raced side by side across the top ).

There’s a saying at Flemington turn for home and count to ten before you panic (you would be getting close to the clock tower by then ) there was a lovely inside run for the horse .  Funnily Opie came back down to it after he got chutneyed and the horse ran on really well.

He did attempt to slide into a tight gap, but simultaneously he’s been chutneyed by a couple outside him ( I presume that jockey was held accountable ). 

No mention of that jockey causing interference to Embellish in Stewards report  but that doesn’t detract from the fact that Opie tried THREE times to force his way through a gap maybe a sign of pigheadedness or stupidity . 

Once he’d been held up, squeezed out, and lost his momentum OP has sat up and thought to himself “I’ve been chutneyed here at a critical time in the race so let’s look after this horse and save him for another day “, as good caring jockeys do. My opinion is that severe checks at that stage of a race are insurmountable so you should sit up on them.

True  but it was a Gr1 and worth $1000090  but Opie caused him to be held up he butchered the ride 

Anyway after he’s sat up Embellish has got himself balanced again and started to round off rather nicely, so OP has given him a couple of flicks with the Stick and he’s found the line quite strongly.

Again the horse would have gone very close to winning had Opie hadn’t tried taking on the Australian jockeys and in your opinion got chutneyed .The horse showed he had the ability .

I’m correct and accurate here ( as I always am ) I have the same credentials as you.

 

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In my opinion Opie should have stayed on Bring Me Roses back not Grunts.  She was still travelling at the 500m and the gaps opened up everywhere on the inside.  Bring Me Roses wasn't going to stop - she won the Manifold over 1600m at Flemington and was 2nd in the VRC Oaks on the same track over 2500m.  It's a long 400m up that straight at Flemington and at the 500m you can't even see the clock tower!  Pushing out into a wall of horses was not an option.

I haven't ridden at Flemington before but I have ridden a horse before - but I guess bareback (the horse not me) in the South Westland scrublands herding Hereford cattle doesn't count.  But I have watched a zillion races run at Flemington and admire the skill and nerve of those jockey's who just wait and wait up that straight because nearly always in a fast run race the gaps just come.  Helps that the surface races fairly over its width.

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5 minutes ago, poundforpound said:

Do fuck off.

I’ve ridden Flemington, but that’s irrelevant.

Anyone with any experience can see OP is using Grunt ( who just happens to be the fave, and he’s travelling sweetly ) to drag him into the race. Grunt just happened to accelerate quicker than Embellish and left him a bit flat footed, hence OP got into trouble.

Good to see the village idiots coming  out to play with their warped version of events though.

Any thoughts on Steven Hawking’s latest theories on how time existed before the “Big Bang” that most astrophysicists agree started the universe ? 

Fuckwits, A class fucking idiots talking through your pockets.

 

On the lawn on Ladies Day at Flemington with high heels round you neck doesn't count!!!

OP was already on a good drag into the race and just had to wait.  Bring Me Roses a horse that has won the Manifold and a second in the Oaks on the same track was a higher percentage option to follow than trying to push out or through.  He only had to wait for 100m.

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2 minutes ago, poundforpound said:

Expert on everything as usual.

Can we get a vomit emoji so the 99% of us who think you’re just a fuckwit jockey basher can react to your tripe.

Na we all leave the "expert on everything" mantle to you.  

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14 minutes ago, TurnipOrange said:

You have to be kidding the clock tower at Flemington would be 150m from the winning post, I should know I was in front at that stage in the Melbourne cup ;)

Clock tower.jpg

Yes might be a bit late to make your run if you are not handy.  However 10 seconds from the 400m mark would take you close to 200m out so you are quibbling over 50m.

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3 minutes ago, poundforpound said:

The straight is 450m isn’t it, have they shortened it ?

Correct but I didn't say it wasn't.  OP only had to wait where he was for 50m.

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16 minutes ago, 2Admin2 said:

OP only had to wait where he was for 50m.

With all due respect to hindsight, I agree. Trying to push through a gap that wasn't there was not an alternative option against those riders. Anyone not a wanker with consequently affected vision would surely have to also agree.

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4 minutes ago, poundforpound said:

Clearly you should get some barbed wire gloves and then get off to see Fred Hollows.

Grunt is outside him across the top, and travelling, OP knows exactly who Grunt is so when that horse peels of him at the 500 he slides out with him.

Grunt was going a shade better though and got to the outside then accelerated away leaving OP flat footed and forced to try for a gap that was marginal.

Thats how I saw it, and with that your Honour I rest my case.

Good, we agree. That was the mistake. As you say, he got out-footed and out witted with Grunt clearly going the better, when as admin said, had he been patient and stayed put for 50m, the perfect rails run was all his.

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5 hours ago, poundforpound said:

Here’s my take on it ( I may as well pretend to be an expert too ).

OP has given him a great ride during the run.

They've gone a solid gallop so you can reasonably presume those three up front who had them strung out will stop and come back on top of the field late in the race.

On that basis OP has eased off the fence after they’ve turned in to try to find some clear air, and to stay on the favourite Grunt’s back (they’d raced side by side across the top ).

He did attempt to slide into a tight gap, but simultaneously he’s been chutneyed by a couple outside him ( I presume that jockey was held accountable ).

Once he’d been held up, squeezed out, and lost his momentum OP has sat up and thought to himself “I’ve been chutneyed here at a critical time in the race so let’s look after this horse and save him for another day “, as good caring jockeys do. My opinion is that severe checks at that stage of a race are insurmountable so you should sit up on them.

Anyway after he’s sat up Embellish has got himself balanced again and started to round off rather nicely, so OP has given him a couple of flicks with the Stick and he’s found the line quite strongly.

If I owned that horse I’d be happy, I certainly wouldn’t be blaming OP, and I’d go looking for another nice mile somewhere against his own age, or I’d go for a race like the Donnie against the old horses, off a low mark, with a view to aiming him for a decent 2000m WFA some time soon.

I’m correct and accurate here ( as I always am ) but over to you critics now, for your wrong opinion .

 

 

 

Courtesy of R&S site,

looks like the owners have made a decision

Kiwi Stars Returning Home

Kiwi stablemates Melody Belle and Embellish are returning home to New Zealand after failing to fire in their Australian campaigns.

Te Akau principal David Ellis said the G1 winners will return to New Zealand following their efforts at Randwick and Flemington last Saturday. 

Melody Belle Horseform finished ninth behind Shoals in the G1 Surround Stakes (1400m) at Randwick while NZ 2000 Guineas winner Embellish Horseform failed behind Grunt in the G1 Australian Guineas at Flemington. 

 

Ellis said the Stephen Autridge and Jamie Richards-trained pair will be sent for spells when they arrive home.


ANZ Bloodstock News

 

 


 

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28 minutes ago, poundforpound said:

Clearly you should get some barbed wire gloves and then get off to see Fred Hollows.

Grunt is outside him across the top, and travelling, OP knows exactly who Grunt is so when that horse peels of him at the 500 he slides out with him.

Grunt was going a shade better though and got to the outside then accelerated away leaving OP flat footed and forced to try for a gap that was marginal.

Thats how I saw it, and with that your Honour I rest my case.

OP didn't know who Bring Me Roses was?  She was also travelling and he was on her tail.  He didn't have to ride for luck just follow her and the gaps came.  Only had to wait 50m.

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13 minutes ago, poundforpound said:

The old “ride ‘em for luck” trick, the greatest jockey of all time ( Harry Hindsight ) was the best exponent of it 

CWJ might be the best current exponent, though it sometimes lands him in trouble because the stipes think they are a better judge of how well his horse is going at the 600 than he is.

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3 minutes ago, TurnipOrange said:

The Flemington Straight is 450m clock tower 150m so that's a time difference of 17 sec, long time to do nothing ;)

I don't think anyone has suggested to do "nothing" until they get to the clock tower.  But it is a long straight with a good even surface so unlike many of our tracks you can wait a bit.

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