RaceCafe..#1...Tipsters Thread.... Share Your Fancies For Fun...Lets See Who The Best Tipsters Here Are.
rdytdy

Oh No!!! The Early Crow

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He's ridden one winner in over 130 rides this season - that's some strike-rate. 

And after the Cup the guys on Trackside were saying what a great job he's doing putting his mounts in the right places.  I suggest his strike-rate would beg to differ! 

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8 minutes ago, Grego said:

In TKs defence the mounts he's getting are not flash.

How many Melbourne Cup winners you guys ridden ? 

:D

Grego. I'm 100kgs and 6ft 1 so I'm struggling to get a ride in the cup. To be fair the Melbourne Cup was 30 years ago and our old mate David Lange was in charge of our great Nation.

Mate 135 rides for 1 win . I'm just saying I wouldn' have him on my horse. Comebacks rarely work and it' s getting embarrassing for the bloke.

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TK Allan will get that win soon, then two or three will come in quick succession. It’s called the law of averages. 

Tony, if by any chance you read Race Cafe, take no notice of the doom merchants. You have already achieved plenty and there’s still more to come 

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4 hours ago, Dockers said:

Grego. I'm 100kgs and 6ft 1 so I'm struggling to get a ride in the cup. To be fair the Melbourne Cup was 30 years ago and our old mate David Lange was in charge of our great Nation.

Mate 135 rides for 1 win . I'm just saying I wouldn' have him on my horse. Comebacks rarely work and it' s getting embarrassing for the bloke.

If Opie Bosson rode those same 135 horses, what would his strike rate look like.

And if Tony rode Sword of Osman at Matamata yesterday (for eg) you reckon he wouldnt have won because of Tony...

You need to get rides with a chance of winning as no jockey or any Cafers on here are strong enough to carry a horse and get it over the line...

 

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7 minutes ago, Ponderosa8 said:

If Opie Bosson rode those same 135 horses, what would his strike rate look like.

And if Tony rode Sword of Osman at Matamata yesterday (for eg) you reckon he wouldnt have won because of Tony...

You need to get rides with a chance of winning as no jockey or any Cafers on here are strong enough to carry a horse and get it over the line...

 

You make it sound like he has had 134 rides at over 50-1. His strike rate is appalling. Worst in the country and plenty of jockeys don't get favs to ride. Good rider way past his best.

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2 hours ago, Richard Cave said:

Good on him!

Some of you lousy barskets would be the type to laugh at Simon Bwidges trying to pwonounce Bwidges.

Allen can and should do whatever the hell he wants, and he wants that 1k wins alongside his name.

He does but T K Allan not Allen. :)

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Plenty of sad buggers on here . Shame he didn’t hang on yesterday would of been a fitting result . Tony rides jumpouts trials trackwork and ventures north for even just the one ride . When he finally does ride his 1000 th winner I hope he gives all the knockers the middle finger . Then again he probably wouldn’t stoop to your level.

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14 hours ago, Insider said:

TK Allan will get that win soon, then two or three will come in quick succession. It’s called the law of averages. 

yeah if a roulette wheel comes up black ten times in a row, then the next one is bound to be red

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Not necessarily! I was in Broken Hill and a friend took me to a game of "Two Up". He said " I'm backing Tails and increasing my bet until it wins".  17 Heads in row came up and he lost the $3000 he had in his pocket. I got him out of there before the 18th throw went up. 

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Lisa Allpress had a shocking strike rate in SING........because,.......she rides light, the club made her ride all those light weights at 100-1........her ability we all know,  so strike rate or losing streaks have relevance. Tony hasn't forgotten how to ride!

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Statistics is part of professional sport. If Joie Moreira missed 20 in a row it would be front page news. In fact if a sportsman experiences silence when he is on a bad run thats probably worse.

Racing stats throw some interesting anomolies so why shouldn't they be noted. Ask Uneasy about his horror run a few years back. I think it was close to Tony Allan's figure then he let rip over Christmas. Stephen McKee was on about 80 losing starters this season then got 3 or 4 in a week and a Group One. And how many rides did Jimmy Cassidy (with allowance) have before he got his first winner or was it Noel Harris?

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Noel Harris won on Phar Lace at Foxton at his 21st ride. Jimmy, I think,  took about 90 odds rides to get his first winner.  

TK will get his 1000th and good on him to achieve that feat. Tony has had his demons but has worked his butt off to get back and that 1000th win will be just reward.  

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2 hours ago, Trump said:

Not necessarily! I was in Broken Hill and a friend took me to a game of "Two Up". He said " I'm backing Tails and increasing my bet until it wins".  17 Heads in row came up and he lost the $3000 he had in his pocket. I got him out of there before the 18th throw went up. 

yeah my comment was a little tongue in cheek.  the law of averages is a gamblers fallacy - that the outcome of an independent random event is somehow impacted by the outcome of similar events that came before it.

as opposed to the law of large numbers which says that given a large sample size you'd expect the actual incidence of different outcomes to align with the expected ratio of outcomes.  I suspect this is what Insider might have been referring to - although I would have thought 130-140 was already a pretty significant sample size.

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2 minutes ago, Kloppite said:

yeah my comment was a little tongue in cheek.  the law of averages is a gamblers fallacy - that the outcome of an independent random event is somehow impacted by the outcome of similar events that came before it.

as opposed to the law of large numbers which says that given a large sample size you'd expect the actual incidence of different outcomes to align with the expected ratio of outcomes.  I suspect this is what Insider might have been referring to - although I would have thought 130-140 was already a pretty significant sample size.

the old Martingale betting system is a beauty ! 

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Guess the longer your out of any competitive sport the harder it must be to regain your fitness and edge .Combine that with fickle racing people and the task is even harder.I admire the effort and commitment Tony Allen has shown in his return and hope he achieves what he desires in his comeback.All the best TA.

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