RaceCafe..#1...Tipsters Thread.... Share Your Fancies For Fun...Lets See Who The Best Tipsters Here Are.
MiniJax

Zipping Gabby

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9 minutes ago, MiniJax said:

When will Zipping Gabby get a box that’s not 5,6,7,8.  Maybe during railway heats? 

 

*just my opinion 

when will Danny Dee get a box that isn't 1, 2, or 3? 18 starts with 7 box 1s, 2 box 2 and a box 3. Nearly everytime he draws outside of the 3, he's beaten but that doesn't happen very often now does it. Especially at Cambridge. 

You will find for every dog that cant get a good box, there's another that cant get a bad box (Its just a shame that normally, the dog that gets the good boxes wants outside lol).

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Interesting reading but overall stats paint a different picture.

ZIPPING GABBY

prior to coming to NZ - 9 starts and four were from boxes 1 and 2 alone 

since arriving and counting today - 10 starts all from wider than box 5 and half of them from 6 alone)  

The recent spate of poor draws seems to be averaging it's box draw stats out. 

DANNY DEE

Prior Aust draws 4281477543563 so 13 starts and only drew inside 4 four times  

NZ draws 127461142554111361 so 18 for 10 inside 3  

That means that in 31 starts has drawn inside 3 in 14 which is still less than half and if you add in box 4's - it's 16 from the inside four boxes. which is close enough to half meaning that he has drawn outside five in the other fifteen or half of his overall starts. Yes a lot of recent box 1's but no one was complaining prior to his fortuitous draws at five of it's past six as it's only averaged out to 50/50 now.

It goes to proive that you can't just base a random box draw sample on a string of recent good or bad luck - it has to be done over time and with a greater number of starts as it will no doubt average out.

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4 hours ago, Flabbergasted said:

Interesting reading but overall stats paint a different picture.

ZIPPING GABBY

prior to coming to NZ - 9 starts and four were from boxes 1 and 2 alone 

since arriving and counting today - 10 starts all from wider than box 5 and half of them from 6 alone)  

The recent spate of poor draws seems to be averaging it's box draw stats out. 

DANNY DEE

Prior Aust draws 4281477543563 so 13 starts and only drew inside 4 four times  

NZ draws 127461142554111361 so 18 for 10 inside 3  

That means that in 31 starts has drawn inside 3 in 14 which is still less than half and if you add in box 4's - it's 16 from the inside four boxes. which is close enough to half meaning that he has drawn outside five in the other fifteen or half of his overall starts. Yes a lot of recent box 1's but no one was complaining prior to his fortuitous draws at five of it's past six as it's only averaged out to 50/50 now.

It goes to proive that you can't just base a random box draw sample on a string of recent good or bad luck - it has to be done over time and with a greater number of starts as it will no doubt average out.

Someone who can see my point!!!! 

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