RaceCafe..#1...Tipsters Thread.... Share Your Fancies For Fun...Lets See Who The Best Tipsters Here Are.
ivanthegreat

Smart Patch

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That was good today ..  " Needs the run , happy if it runs 4th " - very heavily supported in the last few minutes to win easily . Better if the just don't do the interview than mislead the mug public. Then again they are running out of mugs to play their game.

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11 minutes ago, HarryHindsight said:

That was good today ..  " Needs the run , happy if it runs 4th " - very heavily supported in the last few minutes to win easily . Better if the just don't do the interview than mislead the mug public. Then again they are running out of mugs to play their game.

got the perfect   run   how cant it win if  gets  perfect run    its  got better races and doesn't want  to peak to earlier 

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17 hours ago, HarryHindsight said:

The betting fluctuation tells the story.  FF 3.4 @ the jump 

and  it  happens with a .....  load horses    from other stables  to  think  your  reading mountain of molehill  lots were smashed   there  as well as weekend     

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Just now, mr_gee said:

and  it  happens with a .....  load horses    from other stables  to  think  your  reading mountain of molehill  lots were smashed   there  as well as weekend     

and come to think about it  wouldnt  take much to change   market of that price  especially in nz  

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On 1/14/2018 at 4:15 PM, mr_gee said:
On 1/14/2018 at 4:03 PM, HarryHindsight said:

That was good TODAY ..  " Needs the run , happy if it runs 4th " - very heavily supported in the last few minutes to win easily . Better if the just don't do the interview than mislead the mug public. Then again they are running out of mugs to play their game.

  I am sorry I was not talking about Smart Patch as I thought the word  TODAY  written yesterday was enough to suggest it was another horse.    6's (I am happy to be corrected) into 3.4 on FF . Can't remember one tumble quicker  Just lucky I suppose.  

 

 

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The Trainer cannot possibly tell you if his horse is going to win. He has no control over outside influences - other horses, trainers, jockeys etc. So why rely on him for your betting assumptions. Tommy Smith probably told the owner of Kingston Town that it was a certainty to win the MC. What he didn't know was MJ trying to lead the length of the straight on a top weight, only to be nutted by a masterly ride from "The Enforcer" on Gurners Lane ! (God bless his soul). I don't want my trainers telling me my horse is going to win or lose. All I need to know is, " Is the horse ready?". If he says he's as fit and ready as I can have him, then I can make my own assessment re the opposition, barriers, likely speed map etc. I don't think LAO'S has to answer to anything. In my opinion, being happy to run 4th says to me it's capable of winning - depending on my assessment of the field. Give him a break please. 

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1 hour ago, Trump said:

The Trainer cannot possibly tell you if his horse is going to win. He has no control over outside influences - other horses, trainers, jockeys etc. So why rely on him for your betting assumptions. Tommy Smith probably told the owner of Kingston Town that it was a certainty to win the MC. What he didn't know was MJ trying to lead the length of the straight on a top weight, only to be nutted by a masterly ride from "The Enforcer" on Gurners Lane ! (God bless his soul). I don't want my trainers telling me my horse is going to win or lose. All I need to know is, " Is the horse ready?". If he says he's as fit and ready as I can have him, then I can make my own assessment re the opposition, barriers, likely speed map etc. I don't think LAO'S has to answer to anything. In my opinion, being happy to run 4th says to me it's capable of winning - depending on my assessment of the field. Give him a break please. 

well said 

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1 hour ago, Trump said:

The Trainer cannot possibly tell you if his horse is going to win. He has no control over outside influences - other horses, trainers, jockeys etc. So why rely on him for your betting assumptions. Tommy Smith probably told the owner of Kingston Town that it was a certainty to win the MC. What he didn't know was MJ trying to lead the length of the straight on a top weight, only to be nutted by a masterly ride from "The Enforcer" on Gurners Lane ! (God bless his soul). I don't want my trainers telling me my horse is going to win or lose. All I need to know is, " Is the horse ready?". If he says he's as fit and ready as I can have him, then I can make my own assessment re the opposition, barriers, likely speed map etc. I don't think LAO'S has to answer to anything. In my opinion, being happy to run 4th says to me it's capable of winning - depending on my assessment of the field. Give him a break please. 

Clearly you didn't hear the interview and that is what the thread is all about NOBODY will convince me that the horses ability was clearly understated. For what purpose. As I began by stating I made it the bet of the day until I heard a very underwhelming comment about its chances.

As for the Melbourne Cup analogy goes can I state that I never have a bet in that raffle for the reasons you outlined.

Its nominated for the Wellington meeting in FEB but I bet we never see it  again until it appears in HK.

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Ha... all trainers are wealthy because they know when their horse is going to win!

The only question asked should be what % chance has your horse got of winning......and most would'nt have a clue

The only relevant info ATM from an interview is the riding instructions.

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5 hours ago, mr_gee said:

  theres  been a lot    recently   i study tote  fluctuations a lot  wasnt  the only horse  that got smacked at that meeting 

In your study what feeds did you write to database   ?  Have you got any statistics or anything useful you wish to share on the correlation between shorteners -drifters to winners ?  API or XML or both ?  no idea ? 

Some do write it all to database but I would think they wouldn't waste their time here.  I don't even think you know which horse I was talking about that raced on Sunday but don't let that stop you trying to kill the thread .  

 

 

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1 hour ago, chevy86 said:

And that was not a close result, it was a towelling you don't see often.Didn't Dummy cop a penalty for under-playing Stacey Jones's chances?

Kevin Myers acknowledged he deliberately misled the public.

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2 hours ago, turny said:

Looks like they landed a punt - well done I say 

 

53 minutes ago, hesi said:

A dying Game, of course, especially amongst the Generation X, who are not so stupid, that they cannot see that this goes on, and unless you are 'in the know', you are disadvantaged.

 

I don't get how Turny thinks this clever, Ivan sounds like a decent punter and as we all know - NZ racing doesn't have enough of them. But this is just another reason for him to quit. Then Lance will be left to wonder why the silly punters aren't generating his stake money.  

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Dock Leaf, we all know the odds - beating them is the game - frankly if you rely on Trackside interviews you are in big trouble.

I had the horse in my first three - but had a question over him - proven wrong but not the first time and won't be the last

Good luck to them they landed a plunge - well done

 

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