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Tauhei Notts

Choosing A Yearling

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Two years ago I got a colourful magazine named Equine World.  In it studs,  and their handlers,  were asked to select horses that were not necessarily sale toppers but are rated as exciting prospects by their handlers.  Two years later I examined those ten top prospects, now that they are nearly half way through their classic season.  I have been in the horse game long enough to know that selecting yearlings is tough, so read on and tell us what you think about the ten most exciting prospects.

Lot 64.  Rich Hill.   Jimmy Choux - Shaheen sold for $210,000 named Frascati.  It has not appeared in any trials.

Lot 136.  Phoenix Park.   Cape Blanco - Wave To Lottie passed in for $45,000.  Unnamed, it has not appeared in any trials.

Lot 298.  Brighthill.   Azamour - Franny sold for $85,000 to NZ Bloodstock as agent.  He ran fourth at his first trial then was unplaced in his next four trials.

Lot 263.  Valachi Downs.   Medaglia d'Oro - Don't Coutya sold for $200,000 and named Nastro Azzurro.  He has had five trials as a two year old and three year old and has not managed to run in the first three in any of them.

Lot 318.  Waikato Stud.   Savabeel - Hollywood filly passed in for $175,000 named On The Boulevard in Australia and is unraced.

Lot 328.  Waikato Stud.   Ocean Park - Jacqwin sold for $135,000 to Rogerson's Team.  It has had three trials as a two and three year old and was unplaced each time.

Lot 360.  Brighthill.   Azamour - Lady Peony sold for $300,000 never ever trialled in New Zealand and is now unraced in Australia.

Lot 415.  Rich Hill Stud.  Shocking - Miss Thorn sold for $200,000 and named Murray River in Australia.  Unplaced at its only start.

Lot 445.  Pencarrow Stud.,  Frankel - Our Echezeaux colt sold for $1,300,000 to BBA Ireland and others, named Tangmere.    I think he is still a maiden.

Lot 827.  Valachi Downs.  O'Reilly - Darcey Bussell sold for $300,000 to Team Rogerson.  Named Tschaikowsky, he has had five trials as a two and three year old and has managed two thirds.

What chance has a dunce like me got when the most knowledgeable people cannot pick a maiden winner out of ten selections.  I accept; some of them will need time, particularly that Lot 328.  I recall an 87 year old owner saying to a horse trainer;

"Time?  I've got a few bob to my name but time is something I do not have much of."

This list might be worth re-visiting in a year's time.

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I agree TN it's very hard picking them as yearlings.For years I have bred my own and raced them and to be honest it's probably harder.I have been through plenty of horses but I adopt the policy that if it can't show some ability after about four months sound work, after the initial early education, and/or can't run 600 at better than 36secs then I usually give them away. To date I've never given away a top horse but have given away the odd winner, which never carried it on.

We always hear of the good luck stories but rarely the others. Just as well some of us breed and race for fun and guess what, if I don't spend it my kids will.

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Graytimo, some of those Cape Blanco's need a bit of time.  It is interesting that the staff at Phoenix Park so liked it.

When I wrote that Lot 328 will need time I meant Lot 318.  Sorry about that.  Some of those Savabeels need a bit of time, then they go whoosh.

I was wrong about Lot 415.  He has had four starts, but has been unable to finish in the first seven!  And Lot 445, who has accumulated stake earnings of AUD2492 is eligible to run in a maiden race at Hokitika.

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7 hours ago, Tauhei Notts said:

Two years ago I got a colourful magazine named Equine World.  In it studs,  and their handlers,  were asked to select horses that were not necessarily sale toppers but are rated as exciting prospects by their handlers.  Two years later I examined those ten top prospects, now that they are nearly half way through their classic season.  I have been in the horse game long enough to know that selecting yearlings is tough, so read on and tell us what you think about the ten most exciting prospects.

Lot 64.  Rich Hill.   Jimmy Choux - Shaheen sold for $210,000 named Frascati.  It has not appeared in any trials.

Lot 136.  Phoenix Park.   Cape Blanco - Wave To Lottie passed in for $45,000.  Unnamed, it has not appeared in any trials.

Lot 298.  Brighthill.   Azamour - Franny sold for $85,000 to NZ Bloodstock as agent.  He ran fourth at his first trial then was unplaced in his next four trials.

Lot 263.  Valachi Downs.   Medaglia d'Oro - Don't Coutya sold for $200,000 and named Nastro Azzurro.  He has had five trials as a two year old and three year old and has not managed to run in the first three in any of them.

Lot 318.  Waikato Stud.   Savabeel - Hollywood filly passed in for $175,000 named On The Boulevard in Australia and is unraced.

Lot 328.  Waikato Stud.   Ocean Park - Jacqwin sold for $135,000 to Rogerson's Team.  It has had three trials as a two and three year old and was unplaced each time.

Lot 360.  Brighthill.   Azamour - Lady Peony sold for $300,000 never ever trialled in New Zealand and is now unraced in Australia.

Lot 415.  Rich Hill Stud.  Shocking - Miss Thorn sold for $200,000 and named Murray River in Australia.  Unplaced at its only start.

Lot 445.  Pencarrow Stud.,  Frankel - Our Echezeaux colt sold for $1,300,000 to BBA Ireland and others, named Tangmere.    I think he is still a maiden.

Lot 827.  Valachi Downs.  O'Reilly - Darcey Bussell sold for $300,000 to Team Rogerson.  Named Tschaikowsky, he has had five trials as a two and three year old and has managed two thirds.

What chance has a dunce like me got when the most knowledgeable people cannot pick a maiden winner out of ten selections.  I accept; some of them will need time, particularly that Lot 328.  I recall an 87 year old owner saying to a horse trainer;

"Time?  I've got a few bob to my name but time is something I do not have much of."

This list might be worth re-visiting in a year's time.

Unbelievable! 

It’s amazing that the horses that no one else wants, and the vendor is forced to keep, often turns out the be on of the best. 

 

 

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8 hours ago, Tauhei Notts said:

Two years ago I got a colourful magazine named Equine World.  In it studs,  and their handlers,  were asked to select horses that were not necessarily sale toppers but are rated as exciting prospects by their handlers.  Two years later I examined those ten top prospects, now that they are nearly half way through their classic season.  I have been in the horse game long enough to know that selecting yearlings is tough, so read on and tell us what you think about the ten most exciting prospects.

Lot 64.  Rich Hill.   Jimmy Choux - Shaheen sold for $210,000 named Frascati.  It has not appeared in any trials.

Lot 136.  Phoenix Park.   Cape Blanco - Wave To Lottie passed in for $45,000.  Unnamed, it has not appeared in any trials.

Lot 298.  Brighthill.   Azamour - Franny sold for $85,000 to NZ Bloodstock as agent.  He ran fourth at his first trial then was unplaced in his next four trials.

Lot 263.  Valachi Downs.   Medaglia d'Oro - Don't Coutya sold for $200,000 and named Nastro Azzurro.  He has had five trials as a two year old and three year old and has not managed to run in the first three in any of them.

Lot 318.  Waikato Stud.   Savabeel - Hollywood filly passed in for $175,000 named On The Boulevard in Australia and is unraced.

Lot 328.  Waikato Stud.   Ocean Park - Jacqwin sold for $135,000 to Rogerson's Team.  It has had three trials as a two and three year old and was unplaced each time.

Lot 360.  Brighthill.   Azamour - Lady Peony sold for $300,000 never ever trialled in New Zealand and is now unraced in Australia.

Lot 415.  Rich Hill Stud.  Shocking - Miss Thorn sold for $200,000 and named Murray River in Australia.  Unplaced at its only start.

Lot 445.  Pencarrow Stud.,  Frankel - Our Echezeaux colt sold for $1,300,000 to BBA Ireland and others, named Tangmere.    I think he is still a maiden.

Lot 827.  Valachi Downs.  O'Reilly - Darcey Bussell sold for $300,000 to Team Rogerson.  Named Tschaikowsky, he has had five trials as a two and three year old and has managed two thirds.

What chance has a dunce like me got when the most knowledgeable people cannot pick a maiden winner out of ten selections.  I accept; some of them will need time, particularly that Lot 328.  I recall an 87 year old owner saying to a horse trainer;

"Time?  I've got a few bob to my name but time is something I do not have much of."

This list might be worth re-visiting in a year's time.

I have got a nice horse going through the Trelawney draft at the Karaka Sales. 

I hope that they don’t spruke it! LOL.

I would rather have less money and a top horse, than more money and a total failure as most of the above appear to be  

After all, why am I in the game? It is to breed a champion, not get rich.

Thinking about it, I will probably breed a champion before I get rich anyway, given the pitfalls of the game today where nothing but perfection in the ring is required. 

Thankfully perfection isn’t winning a lot of races from what I can see.

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Thanks Tauhei, these are very interesting, but not surprizing results. I remember on Race Café some years ago, someone produced a similar table of race earning results for all the yearlings Te Akau had bought over the years, and it was sobering reading!

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Very interesting thanks.

Two guys that seem to have done well over the years picking yearlings are Bruce Perry and Paul Moroney. Can these guys beat the stats or have they just had more than there share of luck?

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5 hours ago, Mattski said:

Very interesting thanks.

Two guys that seem to have done well over the years picking yearlings are Bruce Perry and Paul Moroney. Can these guys beat the stats or have they just had more than there share of luck?

Could be another interesting bit of analysis there .... 

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I am pleased this post has got so many views.  I have thought about it some more.

If you hold the mare when the foal is conceived, then help at the birth of the foal, then teach the weanling how to lead, trim its hooves, spend hours grooming it, lunge it, plait its mane and tail, polish its hooves, shampoo it and take it into the ring, then you have fallen in love with it.  Love does silly things to you.  It blinds you to reality and you think that particular horse is a budding champion, because you have had so much to do with it.

Then the knowledgeable people like Bruce Perry and Paul Moroney come along.  They are too polite to tell you that you are a dreamer.  The horse gets market value and you are exceedingly disappointed that your love is worth not much.  It is tough.  Been there.  Done that.

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51 minutes ago, Tauhei Notts said:

I am pleased this post has got so many views.  I have thought about it some more.

If you hold the mare when the foal is conceived, then help at the birth of the foal, then teach the weanling how to lead, trim its hooves, spend hours grooming it, lunge it, plait its mane and tail, polish its hooves, shampoo it and take it into the ring, then you have fallen in love with it.  Love does silly things to you.  It blinds you to reality and you think that particular horse is a budding champion, because you have had so much to do with it.

Then the knowledgeable people like Bruce Perry and Paul Moroney come along.  They are too polite to tell you that you are a dreamer.  The horse gets market value and you are exceedingly disappointed that your love is worth not much.  It is tough.  Been there.  Done that.

I agree totally. Would rate the opinions of the buyers Bruce Perry and Paul Moroney more than the sellers.

Can't say anyone out there has a perfect record but when you look at what Bruce Perry and Paul Moroney have done out there then they have done a reasonably good job compared to the average statisitics out.

 Te Akau's are also better than the average. Just look at an individual age group like their current 3yo crop.

One thing some people also miss is residual value of a filly at the end of its race career. Some fillies don't have to race or place and have great breeding value.

The results are not an even spread but when you do get a good one they can pay for many slow ones!

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If you are going to start comparing strike-rates of the likes of David Ellis then to be fair you need to start correcting for purchase price - compare like with like if you will  ... because  obviously he spends a truckload of money and massive individual sums for many yearlings ..  if you command domination of the bench at the top end of the market it's a bit tough on the rest to start comparing the success of those horses (often royally bred) with the more modest types other buyers are spending much less on ....,

 

    

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The Bruce Sherwin, Tony Pike, Guy Mulcaster tribe haven't done too bad either given the very few they buy for the Sacred Man.

I am excluding the Guy Mulcaster purchases for Chris Waller as that is a whole different scenario, although very successful in its own right.

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On 09/01/2018 at 10:49 AM, Mattski said:

Very interesting thanks.

Two guys that seem to have done well over the years picking yearlings are Bruce Perry and Paul Moroney. Can these guys beat the stats or have they just had more than there share of luck?

Paul Moroney is one of the best, when it comes to picking future good race horses. And he doesn't always go for he blue bloods.

I remember him looking at one of mind...he looked and asked questions about the horse. That horse wet on to be very good race horse.

 

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On 08/01/2018 at 9:14 AM, Insider said:

I have got a nice horse going through the Trelawney draft at the Karaka Sales. 

I hope that they don’t spruke it! LOL.

I would rather have less money and a top horse, than more money and a total failure as most of the above appear to be  

After all, why am I in the game? It is to breed a champion, not get rich.

Thinking about it, I will probably breed a champion before I get rich anyway, given the pitfalls of the game today where nothing but perfection in the ring is required. 

Thankfully perfection isn’t winning a lot of races from what I can see.

Good luck with the yearling Insider.It's a good time  of the year to fill the duffle bag with crinklies;):ph34r:

 

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On 1/9/2018 at 10:49 AM, Mattski said:

Very interesting thanks.

Two guys that seem to have done well over the years picking yearlings are Bruce Perry and Paul Moroney. Can these guys beat the stats or have they just had more than there share of luck?

Agree about Bruce Perry, he seems to have a great eye.

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Interesting read, so many variables can occur with the horses....example - horse I bred from low level race mare to considered failed stallion (by the time it reached the sales) purchased for market value. Raced as 2yr old failed, won as early 3yr old then nothing, been through 4 trainers by then, bought by somone for $500 has won another race and placed several times and currently spelling. Bart Cummings said "Patience is the cheapest part of racing but most people don't use it"

It's not easy to pick a yearling..there are many stories of yearlings sold for millions with no return. I'll never make money from this game but I'm keeping all I breed now.

Good luck if you're looking to buy.

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The best, recent example I know of where the "experts" got it all wrong was with the lady who bought Exquisite Jewel from the Cambridge Stud draft for $400. The key reason for the price was she was by Lucky Unicorn who by that stage was completely out of fashion. EJ went on to win 4 races races including a group race so is now a valuable broodmare given she is also from the Marquise / Diamond Lover/ Octagonal family 

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2 minutes ago, Breeder said:

The best, recent example I know of where the "experts" got it all wrong was with the lady who bought Exquisite Jewel from the Cambridge Stud draft for $400. The key reason for the price was she was by Lucky Unicorn who by that stage was completely out of fashion. EJ went on to win 4 races races including a group race so is now a valuable broodmare given she is also from the Marquise / Diamond Lover/ Octagonal family 

Love those stories - not so much the experts getting it wrong side of it - but the canny "amateur" who cottons onto a good thing and goes for it.  I followed that EJ for just that reason knowing the history - smart race record as you say Breeder and 100,00 im stakes to her name - I will be interested to see who they've bred her to as  she hasn't raced since Jan 2017 and I'm guessing has retired to the broodmare paddock ... 

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The story has a little bit more to it, Jess. A year or so later the stud put the dam of EJ , Game Duchess, up for sale in the Broodmare sale. But Sir Patrick must have heard that EJ was OK and pulled her from the sale. At last year's yearling sale the Power yearling from the mare went for $230,000.  There is a Reliable Man filly in this years sale.

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Ah - interesting Breeder.  Thanks.  And of course you can't "deal" as many horses as Sir Patrick over a lifetime and come out of it with a "perfect" record - most would say his judgement has been pretty impressive overall.

Owners of EJ have since had at least one other mare racing in their colors too -but I can't recall her name or breeding .... 

 

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I purchased an unraced 2 year old Pentire filly for $1500 several years ago Her 1st foal was a Colt by a proven but uncommercial stallion and two experts informed me that the foal lacked scope and was foalified I sold him for $50k at weanling sales. He was re-presented at the yearling sales where he sold for a record auction price for his sire and is now in Ciaron Maher’s stable in Melbourne 

i have his 1/2 sister in Book 1 So bargains can be found

 

 

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The best horse my family ever bred was out of a mare we were given for free and by a stallion that stood for $500 (who was a half brother to Maroof).  In saying that as a yearling this fellow stood out and had a bit of X factor about him.  Years ago at a sale I picked out a gorgeous showy colt by an unheard of stallion, he made $7000 (Maizcay ex Maire Vita), he ended up being pretty good.  Yes bargains can be found.

 

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