N1MUE 1,877 Report post Posted March 9, 2018 Could have a few today - first cab off the rank: Ellerslie R1: Swissilicious paying $1.85 to finish ahead of Morweka. Nice win here over New year carnival and has a nice draw today. Given a little freshen up and back in distance should suit. Morweka is drawn out and I'm not a big fan of her jockey. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
N1MUE 1,877 Report post Posted March 10, 2018 1 hour ago, N1MUE said: Morweka is drawn out and I'm not a big fan of her jockey. Closer than I would have preferred but they still payout on that. Morweka's draw and jockey did the job for me. Next bet is Howboutdat paying $2.08 to finish ahead of Rosa Carolina in Race 5 at Ellerslie. Taking a bit of a risk on the jockey match-up but Maija Vance just won on Howboutdat's half sister and she should give him a nice trip from that draw. Trainer was interviewed after the first race and said Howboutdat is very well. Rosa Carolina doesn't have a great second up record and I think she might prefer a little bit of sting out of the ground. talk 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
N1MUE 1,877 Report post Posted March 10, 2018 Better day yesterday and now 17 from 22 (77%) with a 45% cumulative profit. In the first today at Gorrrrr I'm on Qashqai paying $1.85 to finish ahead of Our Boy Scotty. They met back in early February and Qashqai finished half a length in front. I also like the jockey match-up here. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
N1MUE 1,877 Report post Posted March 11, 2018 And in R3 I have Hes Mi Brother paying $2.03 to finish ahead of Nightcap. Betting against the fav based on its jockey. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
globederby12 1,495 Report post Posted March 11, 2018 14 minutes ago, N1MUE said: And in R3 I have Hes Mi Brother paying $2.03 to finish ahead of Nightcap. Betting against the fav based on its jockey. You are in the wrong comp John. Trucking well. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohokaman 5,763 Report post Posted March 11, 2018 1 hour ago, N1MUE said: And in R3 I have Hes Mi Brother paying $2.03 to finish ahead of Nightcap. Betting against the fav based on its jockey. That went well. First and last in reverse..... Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
N1MUE 1,877 Report post Posted March 11, 2018 6 minutes ago, Ohokaman said: That went well. First and last in reverse..... Yep fair cop! I'm batting 0% on that sample of one Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Von Cettes 678 Report post Posted March 11, 2018 4 hours ago, N1MUE said: Betting against the fav based on its jockey. This is a very impressive thread majority of posts have given an in-depth reasoning to the above selections Its always easy to converse with Harry H after the event but really John? Lets hope the King never rides Winx then N1MUE, Steve Paul and tonkatime 3 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
N1MUE 1,877 Report post Posted March 12, 2018 Race 4 Hawera Rosetta paying $1.76 to finish ahead of Smokin Hot. Two reasonable thirds in ok fields lately and appears to jump well so should get handy. Smokin Hot only battled the last two runs and only gets 0.5kgs of the 2kgs it should otherwise get for putting a lesser jockey up. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
N1MUE 1,877 Report post Posted March 12, 2018 18 minutes ago, N1MUE said: Race 4 Hawera Rosetta paying $1.76 to finish ahead of Smokin Hot. Two reasonable thirds in ok fields lately and appears to jump well so should get handy. Smokin Hot only battled the last two runs and only gets 0.5kgs of the 2kgs it should otherwise get for putting a lesser jockey up. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
talk 308 Report post Posted March 15, 2018 Keep going with these selections John, love your rationale. tony Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
N1MUE 1,877 Report post Posted March 17, 2018 Two losses in a row so time to right the ship: Rotorua R4 Libretti paying $1.93 to finish ahead of Third Time Lucky. Third Time Lucky is second up on a quick backup and might prefer it a bit wetter. Libretti should get a nice trip and the jockey seems to ride well. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
N1MUE 1,877 Report post Posted March 17, 2018 Right, that was better. I've spotted two more I really like today: Lubaya paying $1.85 to finish ahead of Paulownia in the Guineas at Trentham (R6). I really like Lubaya as an each way chance in that field - two nice runs (admittedly in weaker fields) and third up should be perfect. Nice draw and will be finishing over the top of them. Paulownia 1 from 1 but that wasn't a great field and is drawn the outside. Ferrando paying $1.85 to finish ahead of Heroic Valour in Race 7. I'm keen on Ferrando to win this race - likes Trentham, nice little freshen up and jogged in at the recent trial. Matt Cameron enjoying his day at Trentham so far. HV is a good horse but also drawn out a bit. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
N1MUE 1,877 Report post Posted March 17, 2018 Lubaya out to $2.36 in H2H now. Have I got that one wrong? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
N1MUE 1,877 Report post Posted March 17, 2018 15 minutes ago, N1MUE said: Lubaya out to $2.36 in H2H now. Have I got that one wrong? Ah yes - very wrong! Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
N1MUE 1,877 Report post Posted March 17, 2018 Lubaya not good (sorry Lay Mis) but Ferrando better. One more for the day: Toms paying $2.01 to finish ahead of Awesome Al in the last. Awesome Al on a quick back-up from last week and based on its record, 1400m might be a bit too far. Toms to finish over the top of Al. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
N1MUE 1,877 Report post Posted March 24, 2018 Only one from three last week - reverting to the mean? Today in the Ranvet, Classic Uniform paying $1.70 to finish ahead of Consensus. Consensus hasn't run for a month and is taking on Ozzie group form on a track that probably won't suit. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
N1MUE 1,877 Report post Posted March 24, 2018 Three losses in a row Last race at Rosehill - Miss Que paying $1.80 to finish ahead of Slow Burn. Slow Burn second up and Miss Que a very nice finish last time. Cubes 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
N1MUE 1,877 Report post Posted April 8, 2018 Four losses in a row and eating in to the profit margin - time to be a bit more selective. Found one in the next (R4) at Pukekohe. Silver Cloud paying $1.85 to finish ahead of Cinematic. Silver Cloud doesn't win often but is super consistent. Cinematic's stable going well today but this one is second up and has a jockey who appears to be first up - first raceday ride from what I can tell. Anything can happen with the 4kgs claim but more often than not, it's not so good. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
N1MUE 1,877 Report post Posted April 8, 2018 nice ride! Cubes 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
globederby12 1,495 Report post Posted April 8, 2018 Story of your season John. When it ain't happening it ain't happening. Keep it up though as the law of averages( of which you are well acquainted) will kick in. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...