RaceCafe..#1...Tipsters Thread.... Share Your Fancies For Fun...Lets See Who The Best Tipsters Here Are.
N1MUE

H2H bet of the day?

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I know a number of people don't like the H2H bet option, but I often scroll through all of the H2H options looking for a value bet.  I think I have found one today

Race 6 at Timaru today the H2H is Leuluai vs Aboli.  I really like the $2.24 being offered on Aboli.  Both horses ran in the same race last start and Aboli ran second (after racing three wide) while Leuluai ran 3rd, with Aboli comfortably ahead at the finish.  Leulaui is drawn 14 of 14 today while Aboli draws the middle of the pack.

Chris Johnson rides Aboli so I hope it's in the finish because he doesn't tax a horse if it's out of the money. 

Certainly not a sure thing but better than a $2.24 chance in my mind.

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41 minutes ago, jimbob said:

Johnson wont be knocking around Aboli if it is not going to be in top 5, so good luck, this is  allowed under the rules of racing to stop riding if it has not got a chance 

Yep I'm aware of that - I even referred to it in my post - I'm willing to accept that risk.  I figure Aboli will be in the action at the finish.

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Think I have spotted a couple today:

First one is Madam Woo paying $2.13 to finish ahead of Spree in Race 1 at Ellerslie.  Very nice run last start in a reasonable maiden field, running home strongly from the back of the field - 3rd run back from a spell.  I don't think Spree beat a strong field last start and on a quick back-up after 46 days between runs.  

Madam Woo better than 50% chance in my mind.

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4 from 5 so far, so will push my luck a bit further today.

Race 1 at Te Rapa, Walkin' By paying $1.85 to finish ahead of Monaco.

Walkin By is drawn wide but has jumped well at all her starts and should race handy, which more recently seems to be an advantage in early races at Te Rapa.  Form write-up suggests Monaco was unlucky last start but didn't appear full of running at the finish.

right - that's enough horse racing - back to my study for this afternoon's Super draft.

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Two for me today:

Tauherenikau R2:   Pep Torque paying $2.08 to beat Confessional - they ran in the same race last time and Pep Torque beat it quite easily despite drawing wide.  

Te Rapa R7:  Mongolianconqueror paying $1.85 to finish ahead of Rock On Wood.  Nice finish last time off a muddling pace and I like the jockey/trainer match-ups here.

 

 

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I like a few today despite the rain.  I'll start the day early with:

R1 Madam Woo to finish ahead of Starrybeel paying $2.26.  She is clear second pick by the bookies but her last run was very nice and the run over ground at Ellerslie on New Year's day was ok - running home nicely.  I picked her H2H that day and she lost - my only loss on here so far - tempting fate?

 

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Bookies kindly pushed Madam Woo out to $2.39 before the race.

My second bet for today is in Race 3 Fast & Furious paying $1.85 to finish ahead of Sonorous.  This one is based on the 3.5kg weight difference and the jockey of Sonorous.

 

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Two I like today:

Ellerslie R6 Zacada paying $1.85 to finish ahead of Charles Road.  I'm a big fan of Charles Road and he beat Zacada at their last start but a couple of things make me think Zacada can turn the tables today;  2.5kg weight difference and last time Zacada hadn't had a run for four weeks and just seemed to come to the end of it over the last 100m.  Big fan of Zacada's jockey as well.

Ellerslie R7  Vin De Dance paying $1.85 to finish ahead of Endowment.  Third run back from a spell now and was finishing very nicely last start.  Shouldn't mind sting out of the track and Baker/Forsman always seem to produce a number of nice staying 3yos at this time of the season.  Mind you, so do the trainers of Endowment.  Endowment appeared to over-race early in his last start and with 22 days between runs might do the same again here?

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Average day yesterday - 1 from 2.  Endowment duly obliged by over-racing but Zacada over-raced even worse in the earlier race.

Two today at Gisborne:

R2 - Ellison paying $1.48 to finish ahead of Madam Makfi.  Wouldn't normally take one this short but the trainer matchup sealed it for me.  Madam Makfi has had 19 starts and has only finished within 5 lengths of the winner on 2 or 3 occasions.  Needs a heavy track to bring the others back to it, and hasn't got that today.  Admittedly Ellison hasn't finished within 5 lengths of the winner either but has a lot less convictions and went a reasonable trial before its last start when it ran down the track on that skating rink at Thames. 

R5  Bel Regazzo paying $1.85 to finish ahead of Pont Alma.  Very nice run two starts back and then a nice finish last start when second up - looks like it won't mind 2000m.  Pont Alma hasn't raced for over 4 weeks and might be better for the run today.

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One in the last at Riccarton today:

Hardcase paying $1.85 to finish ahead of Zah Wanted.   Hardcase raced wide last start and has a better draw and a jockey upgrade today.  Zah Wanted only battled the last two runs.

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Nutted yesterday and coming back down to earth.  Now 13 from 17 and a 43% profit.  Only 3 from the past 6.

Three I like today:

Polzeath paying $1.77 to finish ahead of Tipping Point in the last at Hastings.  Both ran in the same race last time with Tipping Point second and Polzeath down the track however Polzeath was very unlucky the last 200m and should get a better run than Tipping Point today.

Oohood paying $1.90 to finish ahead of Long Leaf in the Blue Diamond.  Very nice finish from Oohood last time and with the pace on should finish over the top of them.

Catchy paying $1.55 to finish ahead of Hellbent in the Oakleigh.  Hellbent second up and not a great record at Caulfield.  Catchy goes well fresh, likes Caulfield and has a very nice weight.

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