RaceCafe..#1...Tipsters Thread.... Share Your Fancies For Fun...Lets See Who The Best Tipsters Here Are.
porky

2018 Punting advice ?

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I have no problem sorting out value winners and generally stick to a punting budget...so have good days and bad.

in the recent 12 days of Christmas punting comp, run by P.J, I was above the profit line until the business end.(went looking for a roughy)

Are win bets on your selection , a staking plan or % trebles/quaddies a better option?

WHAT IS THE BEST VALUE PUNTING ADVICE FOR 2018?...PLEASE OTHER CAFERS ! :wub:

 

(would appreciate a message from anyone below in P.J,s comp that obviously do their homework)

 

Dollars Table

3091.20 Steve P

2982.80 Ray

2904.20 Skelly

2817.20 Casper

2783.00 Roland

2773.40 Catalano

2769.20 Betty

----------------break even $2728.00---------------------------

2724.00 PJ

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13 minutes ago, poundforpound said:

Buy Ripple

???... just joking PFP....But whats that? a new ice block?...just want to know how to post a decent profit long term.

can pick my own winners (have systems purchased previously but can't stick to them)...get bored...Thanks though mate...have a good New year !

WHAT DOES RIPPLE ENTAIL?...you could snare me yet.

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Good topic Porky!

I'll start by saying I'm not a successful punter - but I know I can be if I had the discipline.

A number of years back, I kept good track of my bets, restricted the number of bets, had a good staking system, and made a note next to every loser so I (hopefully) didn't repeat my mistakes. I carefully turned $100 into $1200 over the course of a year - it was so bloody boring! When the year was up, I promptly blew the balance.

Last year, a mate with a mathematical bent wanted to see what a hedge fund investment approach might look like, so he asked me to give him sure-fire place-getters ($1.10 - $1.50), with the aim of making an investment-like long-term return of 15-20% - that was working well until winter came and I got bored.

So now, I splash it around like a drunk old bloke at an RSA urinal - Multi's, Place 6, a win bet here, the odd trifecta on big races - it's not a winning strategy at all.

I was wondering though, after getting some good results in PJ's comps, whether 'Dutching' might be the go - betting on two horses per race: https://practicalpunting.com.au/pp-online/staking/staking-plans/multiple-betting/dutch-doubts-20150209

It would be interesting to see whether a number of us might have made a handy profit using this system over the course of the comps - the data's all there, but I'm not inclined to do the work. I'll probably just dive in and see if it works. Life's too short for testing ideas :)

 

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During the holiday period look for good/handy horses having 2nd or 3rd start from a spell, with a top jock on and paying double fig odds. Jim Byrne last Sat rode 3 such winners at the Gold Coast (I got 2 of them). D.Weir/D Yendall combo got a 26/1 winner this week also. (If that doesn't interest you, just save your pennies for EF TROOP in the GC Magic Mill 2yo. Currently $4.20+). Alternatively, you could ask for a direct line to the Horsestopper and LAY all his $1.20 selections !! You'll finish in front. :) 

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1 hour ago, Catalano said:

 

A number of years back, I kept good track of my bets, restricted the number of bets, had a good staking system,

I was wondering though, after getting some good results in PJ's comps, whether 'Dutching' might be the go - betting on two horses per race: https://practicalpunting.com.au/pp-online/staking/staking-plans/multiple-betting/dutch-doubts-20150209

It would be interesting to see whether a number of us might have made a handy profit using this system over the course of the comps - the data's all there, but I'm not inclined to do the work. I'll probably just dive in and see if it works. Life's too short for testing ideas :)

 

Thanks Cat...Yeah Cheers, ...does ring a bell...might have a go myself for a change.

Confuses me if profits would have been much different in pj's comp, using "Dutching" as opposed to fixed $10 win bets...Some mathematician will enlighten us.

I do enjoy % trebles...simply due to the fact you can throw in all "chances" for any amount...(sure...% reduces according to number of horses selected)...

But it gives you an interest over more races, assuming you stay live...and the payout is always over all-up odds !

HAPPY NEW YEAR ALL

 

  

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10 hours ago, porky said:

I have no problem sorting out value winners and generally stick to a punting budget...so have good days and bad.

in the recent 12 days of Christmas punting comp, run by P.J, I was above the profit line until the business end.(went looking for a roughy)

Are win bets on your selection , a staking plan or % trebles/quaddies a better option?

WHAT IS THE BEST VALUE PUNTING ADVICE FOR 2018?...PLEASE OTHER CAFERS ! :wub:

 

(would appreciate a message from anyone below in P.J,s comp that obviously do their homework)

 

Dollars Table

3091.20 Steve P

2982.80 Ray

2904.20 Skelly

2817.20 Casper

2783.00 Roland

2773.40 Catalano

2769.20 Betty

----------------break even $2728.00---------------------------

2724.00 PJ

I'm DQ'd with a $4.00 loss across twelve meetings ! Haha

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10 hours ago, porky said:

I have no problem sorting out value winners and generally stick to a punting budget...so have good days and bad.

in the recent 12 days of Christmas punting comp, run by P.J, I was above the profit line until the business end.(went looking for a roughy)

Are win bets on your selection , a staking plan or % trebles/quaddies a better option?

WHAT IS THE BEST VALUE PUNTING ADVICE FOR 2018?...PLEASE OTHER CAFERS ! :wub:

 

 

For punters who invest less than $50 per selection, the best and safest way to bet is win betting level stakes to a % of your bank.

ie bank size $1000 x 2% (per bet) $20,  get a few winners and bank is $1500 x 2% $30 per bet & so on.

Porky unfortunately most spend far far too much time looking for a bet, rather than the best price. The unrealistic dream of being a super punter is what many aim for and they waste countless hours researching form needlessly. There is no golden goose with punting Porky, you have to do stuff that others are not doing if you want to win.

ie: back drifters not shorteners, take Topweights with wide draws (refer race 5 at Ellers boxing day), On Pace outsiders in a small field, etc.

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9 hours ago, Catalano said:

Good topic Porky!

I'll start by saying I'm not a successful punter - but I know I can be if I had the discipline.

A number of years back, I kept good track of my bets, restricted the number of bets, had a good staking system, and made a note next to every loser so I (hopefully) didn't repeat my mistakes. I carefully turned $100 into $1200 over the course of a year - it was so bloody boring! When the year was up, I promptly blew the balance.

Last year, a mate with a mathematical bent wanted to see what a hedge fund investment approach might look like, so he asked me to give him sure-fire place-getters ($1.10 - $1.50), with the aim of making an investment-like long-term return of 15-20% - that was working well until winter came and I got bored.

So now, I splash it around like a drunk old bloke at an RSA urinal - Multi's, Place 6, a win bet here, the odd trifecta on big races - it's not a winning strategy at all.

I was wondering though, after getting some good results in PJ's comps, whether 'Dutching' might be the go - betting on two horses per race: https://practicalpunting.com.au/pp-online/staking/staking-plans/multiple-betting/dutch-doubts-20150209

It would be interesting to see whether a number of us might have made a handy profit using this system over the course of the comps - the data's all there, but I'm not inclined to do the work. I'll probably just dive in and see if it works. Life's too short for testing ideas :)

 

Cat, 

Dutching is a good option. I have tried wagertool and betangel with my betfair account, with the better odds it  works well, mainly on sports , but sometimes on UK racing.

No real value for nz racing though, as pools not large enough. I want to have a go this year on Aussie racing , but will need to follow the form a bit more .

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2 minutes ago, poundforpound said:

Ripple is by far the best, can’t be bothered explaining why here but it’s no ordinary crypto because you can’t mine any more, and it’s using a financial platform the big financial institutions approve of and have contracted to.

 

I agree they are a good bet - I brought a few earlier in the year when they were half a cent - no harm in diversifying into a few others thought.....

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On 28/12/2017 at 10:35 AM, poundforpound said:

Google crypto currencies, get on, it’s the one 

 

On 30/12/2017 at 3:32 PM, poundforpound said:

Ripple is by far the best, can’t be bothered explaining why here but it’s no ordinary crypto because you can’t mine any more, and it’s using a financial platform the big financial institutions approve of and have contracted to.

 

Hope nobody invested in ripple, lost 25% since Monday? 

Will drop further 

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I was at my bank today; there was a short line … just one lady in front of me, an Asian lady.

It was obvious she was more than just a little irritated … she was trying to exchange yen for dollars.

She asked the teller, ‘Why it change? Yesterday, I get two hunat dolla
fo yen. Today I only get hunat eighty? Why it change?’

The teller shrugged his shoulders and said, ‘Fluctuations.’

The Asian lady says, ‘Fluc you white people too!’

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23 minutes ago, Tauhei Notts said:

I'm not so good at punting.  I bet a mate $20 that if I rang the Gambling Help Line I would get an ansafone.  I got a human voice.  Goodbye twenty of the best.

your lucky Tauhei , $20 well spent.

it was,nt a pre-recorded human voice?, prompted on to the next question, by your answer?... like most Govt agencies in NZ?...Frustrating as ****

I like the expected wait time to call back answer-phones,

as opposed to the put you on hold version....the music and requirement for speaker Phone (so you don"t burn yourself or spill your drink)

and the deliberately annoying game of (will you give up 1st)  

 

39 minutes ago, rdytdy said:

I was at my bank today; there was a short line … just one lady in front of me, an Asian lady.

It was obvious she was more than just a little irritated … she was trying to exchange yen for dollars.

She asked the teller, ‘Why it change? Yesterday, I get two hunat dolla
fo yen. Today I only get hunat eighty? Why it change?’

The teller shrugged his shoulders and said, ‘Fluctuations.’

The Asian lady says, ‘Fluc you white people too!’

Hard case Ted... The customer behind you was probably an Indian, (both National party voters and NZ residents) with cold hard cash to deposit,

from the corner dairy, fast food outlet, Petrol station and bottle store takings from yesterday.

Yet we see few on racetracks in NZ...that's the problem..

 

ANYWAY BRING ON BIG DAY AT TRENTHAM...NEED A PUNT

  

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7 hours ago, poundforpound said:

Because they removed the three South Korean exchanges, only because South Korean demand is distorting the global price.

Ripple was 50 cents a month ago, it’s been to $3.80, it’s going to settle about 2.20 ish now, I think that’s still ok although like any crypto it’ll fluctuate 

Fair enough, if you purchased at 50c you have good gains.

Its pretty scary just how much is invested in these types of currency's, not if, but when it plummets it will make the 80s stock market crash look like nothing!! 

Bitcoin dropped over 8% overnight.

Seem great ponzi schemes.

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Guest 2Admin2
32 minutes ago, poundforpound said:

You need to research them and understand cryptos and who’s behind each one.

I wouldn’t go near anything designed to be used on the dark web or for criminal activity, but I love the idea of a digital currency that facilitates instant transfers of currencies of any denomination between countries, and that in doing so circumvents the institutional banks and their parasitic fees.

Open your mind, there are new ways of trading and moving money around, and the old style retail banks don’t need to be a part of it.

If you want a conservative crypto that’s bank integrated then Ripple is the one, if you want a credible alternative that’s designed to operate outside of the institutional banks go check out Stellar Lumens, they’re both of great potential as crypto currencies, they’re both lightning quick, and they’re designed by the same guy, Jed McCaleb I think his name is.

Stellar is supported by a non profit foundation so it’s quite ethical too if that matters.

 

P4P have you been googling again?  Have you investigated the fees being taken from crypto currency providers and intermediaries?  Makes bank fees look cheap.

The biggest threat to these currencies are governments.  When they reach a certain threshold you'll see Government regulation overnight.

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37 minutes ago, 2Admin2 said:

P4P have you been googling again?  Have you investigated the fees being taken from crypto currency providers and intermediaries?  Makes bank fees look cheap.

The biggest threat to these currencies are governments.  When they reach a certain threshold you'll see Government regulation overnight.

And not before time, think Tulipmania and Ponzi's

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21 minutes ago, Fartoomuch said:

And not before time, think Tulipmania and Ponzi's

If you're comparing all cryptos to Tulipmania and Ponzi schemes you don't appreciate some of the amazing technology behind them.  I'd say a better comparison is the internet and emails in the late 80's and early 90's.... I'm old enough to remember "smart" people that said why would anyone ever need to send an "electronic" letter on the internet when we have a perfectly good postal system.....

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Guest 2Admin2
16 minutes ago, poundforpound said:

Fook off, governments and banks are creating their own right now, I’m pretty sure the Bank Of England just announced as much.

You don’t need to show the world how ignorant you are all the time.

ROFLMAO so much I might have to have a lie down.  With your new found knowledge can you explain to we ignorant the difference between trading in bitcoin, shares and FOREX?

Hint:  two are based on real value.

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34 minutes ago, 2Admin2 said:

ROFLMAO so much I might have to have a lie down.  With your new found knowledge can you explain to we ignorant the difference between trading in bitcoin, shares and FOREX?

Hint:  two are based on real value.

Bitcoins and shares are based on "real value" it's questionable whether some FOREX is.....

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Guest 2Admin2
31 minutes ago, lecithin said:

Bitcoins and shares are based on "real value" it's questionable whether some FOREX is.....

Please explain what non virtual value bitcoin is related to?

Aside from electricity.

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27 minutes ago, Catalano said:

Looks like your post has been hijacked Porky <_<

So, back to punting, has anyone had a long-term go at Place 6? It always looks so easy, but never quite works out that way...

Most saturdays I take a Place 6 at each of the 2 North Island gallops meetings... when they're still on.!!!

Two horses in each race for $20% to collect 31%. Usually take a "favoured runner' and a bit of a roughie in each race.

If all the favoured runners come in then might get my $20 back, but have had occasions where all the favourites are out of the picture and a couple of my roughies have run a place and I've collected around $2,500-$3,000.  (It also helps when both horses run a place in a couple of the races to collect 4 x 31% of the payout)

Only thing that annoys me with Place 6 is that if all my roughies came in in each of the races, the payout could still end up being a pittance if favoured runners also ran a place in the same 6 races.

Pay your money and take your chance...Good Luck

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