RaceCafe..#1...Tipsters Thread.... Share Your Fancies For Fun...Lets See Who The Best Tipsters Here Are.
TOM(the other Molloy)

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On 12/8/2017 at 2:25 AM, poundforpound said:

Here's what happened.

That hopeless  Strickland is in Hong Kong, some equally deficient  is trying ( unsuccessfully ) to do the job while  Strickland is away, however yesterday the Trainers Assn CHCH rep intervened and Strickland managed to drag himself away from the yum Cha and pork dumplings to declare that the three points deducted from Flying Ibis was just a clerical error, so they remedied it.

 

You got caught again Strickland.

What would they do without Race Cafe.

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On 12/8/2017 at 2:25 AM, poundforpound said:

Here's what happened.

That hopeless  Strickland is in Hong Kong, some equally deficient is trying ( unsuccessfully ) to do the job while  Strickland is away, however yesterday the Trainers Assn CHCH rep intervened and Strickland managed to drag himself away from the yum Cha and pork dumplings to declare that the three points deducted from Flying Ibis was just a clerical error, so they remedied it.

 

You got caught again Strickland .

I think that the only part of your post that is probably incorrect is the reference to the "Yum Cha and Pork Dumplings". If it was on official business, it's probably more like "Peking Duck first & second courses and also, steamed Lobster with ginger and schallots". :) (Basically that's called "YumYum - Chuurrrr". )

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On 12/8/2017 at 2:25 AM, poundforpound said:

Here's what happened.

That hopeless  Strickland is in Hong Kong, some equally deficient  is trying ( unsuccessfully ) to do the job while  Strickland is away, however yesterday the Trainers Assn CHCH rep intervened and Strickland managed to drag himself away from the yum Cha and pork dumplings to declare that the three points deducted from Flying Ibis was just a clerical error, so they remedied it.

 

You got caught again Strickland .

Unbelievable set of circumstances you outline p4p  I struggle with the seeming randomness of plus and minuses.

I have a horse which ran 7 of 12 (beaten 6.9 lengths) in R65 race. Was rated 63 and dropped 1 pt.

Ran 4th in G3 mares race beaten 3.4 lengths and got 7 points - up to 69.

Next start R65 - runs 11 of 16 and gets minus 1 to 68.

I'm not particularly arguing with any of the  re-ratings in isolation - but it does seem she should've lost more than 1 in the last start if she can get +7 for a one off good run in better company.

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For all the arm chair critics out there, what will happen to the ratings of Kawi and Consensus who both ran right up to their respective ratings of 110 & 100 respectively?

Does Kawa stay where he is, while Consensus moves up a point or so?

Sofia Rosa with her first show of form this season deserves to go up a couple of points to represent something like here true ability.

What do others think?

 

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2 hours ago, Insider said:

For all the arm chair critics out there, what will happen to the ratings of Kawi and Consensus who both ran right up to their respective ratings of 110 & 100 respectively?

Does Kawa stay where he is, while Consensus moves up a point or so?

Sofia Rosa with her first show of form this season deserves to go up a couple of points to represent something like here true ability.

What do others think?oi

 

The three best horses in the race ran one two three although the question of ratings - if that Kawi is as good as you lot reckon he should have a rating of 158 or so.

That doesn't answer the question I posed - if they want to increase those fillies ratings so dramatically for one run why was Prom Queen not reduced a heap for a poor run?

But another question for all you know alls.   Kawi draws four yet is the last or second last one loaded today with the other favourite Coldplay late as well.  How do they justify that favorable treatment?  Consensus had been loaded earlier then proceeds to miss the kick.  Fair?

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1 hour ago, poundforpound said:

But that horse has only been brought into the handicap and then penalised three points, or 1.5kg.

You'll find it'll meet the same opposition on very similar terms if they ran the race again tomorrow.

 

One win like that and he is much closer to horses like Authentic Paddy, a 10 race and WFA winner with over $500k in the bin. Presumably most of those will meet again in the Cup so will be interesting to see the outcome there.

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1 hour ago, poundforpound said:

So he's now an 88, Authentic Paddy is 98.

Last Saturday there was 5.5kg between them, if they meet again tomorrow there'll be 5kg between them.

Boxachocolates has only been penalised one point, or half a kilo.

If Strickland knew what he was doing the horse would've been brought into the handicap, ( 86 ) then penalised 5 points to 91.

That's how you handicap, then next start he'd meet A Paddy 2kg worse off for a three length margin.

Unfortunately both NZTR and Strickland have absolutely no idea what they're doing and so Boxachocolates has gone unpunished.

Surely the whole problem is the weakness of our open class racing, which means that any lower grade horse can pop up and win an open race. Do we want to encourage or discourage them from doing that?

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That's true WD. When a R71 can come along and win an Open so comfortably, it doesn't say much for the opposition does it ? The lack of opportunities makes it difficult at that level and it is hardly in the best interests of the horse, although some obviously thought different.

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What it all means also is that you can't really use weights to assess horses chances in NZ as they aren't a fair guide. P4P found that out with Carnival and I recall David Walsh saying Kinigat was a certainty at the weights. You can't say any horse is a certainty at the weights in NZ.

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On 12/18/2017 at 9:29 PM, We're Doomed said:

Surely the whole problem is the weakness of our open class racing, which means that any lower grade horse can pop up and win an open race. Do we want to encourage or discourage them from doing that?

spot on - boxa this week in the Manawatu cup straight to 58.5kg - no wonder there are no good staying horses racing anymore.

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30 minutes ago, Ohokaman said:

Up 4.5kg from last week...makes it tough...:wacko:

Just at a quick glance quite a few of those it met last week are up in weight. Obviously this week's field is stronger, but it could easily win again, then it might get to a tricky place in the weights.

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3 hours ago, poundforpound said:

It's only up in weight because Ocean Emperor and A Paddy aren't in the field FFS.

Please tell me you at least understand handicapping 101.

absolutely correct - but why aren't they in? My guess is their trainers don't want to send them around every start with 60kg on their backs.

anyway it is time for goodwill to all mankind - are they mankind in Petone? ;)

 

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49 minutes ago, von Smallhaussen said:

absolutely correct - but why aren't they in? My guess is their trainers don't want to send them around every start with 60kg on their backs.

anyway it is time for goodwill to all mankind - are they mankind in Petone? ;)

 

Kind of.

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1 hour ago, von Smallhaussen said:

absolutely correct - but why aren't they in? My guess is their trainers don't want to send them around every start with 60kg on their backs.

anyway it is time for goodwill to all mankind - are they mankind in Petone? ;)

 

Authentic Paddy is in the Zabeel Classic at Ellerslie on Boxing Day. Ocean Emperor maybe in need of a spell. Has been up for a while.

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