cherry_bomb 89 Report post Posted November 8, 2017 A somewhat sparse looking lot this year. I imagine the weather has scuppered a few chances along the way and we will see this year's crop through the 2000 and 1000 Guineas not necessarily being the best 4yos running around next year. Having not tracked these lads closely through the year I am coming into this a touch cold. There appears to be one decent overlay (Bostonian). Sensei - Rating bumped up through weak wins and hasn’t crossed paths with any of these yet. Can't entertain at a ridiculous $5.50.Bostonian - Proper fucking tough effort in HB Guineas. Wins Sarten but for being bowled. Going no concern. Wants strong tempo. I put this lad in as a $4 shot. Not surprised at all to discover after the fact that he's a half brother to Mufhasa.Star Treasure - Doesn’t strike as 1600 type. Will improve on good going tho and can sprint.Ever Loyal - Has a motor alright just lacks a sprint. May cross and leadTe Akau Shark - Maiden win over 1100 franked well with Sarten winner and Ever Loyal behind. Went on to win over 1400 last time out in a 3yo race - form unfranked but easy win. Not raced on better than S7, though no reason he won’t handle it. $7s is fair.Scott Base - Leaves it all too late all the time which is a poor profile for a NZ Guineas winner.Embellish - Only 3 starts so comes in with big scope to improve. First time out this prep won, 2nd and 3rd easy winners next time out and one of them twice (Ever Loyal). Won an average r65 last time out with ease. Travels well, learning. Finishes well. OP up and chooses over TAS. Winkers on.Age Of Fire - Skipped maiden company to win a winners race then failed last time out.Lincoln Hills - Possible big improver on better goingIrish Flame - Always been highly tried. Only achieved a 2yo weak G3 win thoughUpperhand - Ashburton maiden winner onlyFinbarr - Optimistic entry Upperhand and Ever Loyal should ensure a reasonable tempo. My reading is that Bostonian deserves some more respect in the market for what he has achieved to date. Embellish does have more scope to improve however Bostonian has only 2 more starts to his own name and has potential to improve on better going. With the good news story of OP choosing Embellish over Ever Loyal and Gingernuts there could continue to be downward pressure on the current $3.20. If I'm wrong about that I will cover on Embellish, otherwise it is Bostonian all day at $6+. Cubes and Turny 1 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
pete 492 Report post Posted November 10, 2017 Interesting analysis. Bostonian is not a half brother to Mufhasa though. He's out of Sheila Cheval who's a daughter of Mufhasa's dam Keepa Cheval. I guess that makes him Mufhasa's nephew or something. Still think he's a live chance though. jack 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gruff 2,778 Report post Posted November 10, 2017 Embellish was $4 top 3 after impressive Ruakaka win allyou need! Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
cherry_bomb 89 Report post Posted November 11, 2017 14 hours ago, Gruff said: Embellish was $4 top 3 after impressive Ruakaka win allyou need! Top speccing! jasonmccook1 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...