TAB pathetic odds "un" Embellished

[Black Kirrama 1,513]

Tomorrow at Trentham R 8 .

Embellish  (3c. Savabeel -Bling) takes on a R 65 Benchmark field.

Tonight he is  2.2

I priced the field up and had him at 3.8. ( maybe more 4.00)

I have no doubts he can win  tomorrow, but come on Petone, you

are not "Bookies". Just amateur turf accountants  postulating as Bookies.
That field tomorrow  M4 R8 has great depth.

Dont you think?

Tab fixed odds on Friday night were:                        The 1976 Pub Bookie in Taumarunui odds

#7 Adonis                        27                                           19                                       

#1 Keep it Savvy               9                                             6.5

#12 Dark Princess            8                                              8.0

#8  Black Sav                    7                                              5.0

#11 Embellish                    2.2                                          4.0

#6 The Bandito                15.0                                        14.00

 

I Would be very interested to see how others here would price that field.

 

Great racing in the next 24 hours !!

 

 

 

[barryb 2,064]

I am hoping they don’t lengthen Embellish’s price as there are super over on about 5 other runners.

Dark Princess for example is outstanding at $8.20, it’s a hell of a lot closer to Embellish than the odds suggest.

 

[rdytdy 5,343]

Don't know about $4 Rev I would price him at $3 - $3.20. The 2000 Guineas current second favourite at $7.00 was a stylish winner at Ruakaka last start with that form being franked by the second and third horses both winning easily at their next starts. The fourth horse will probably also win next start. He probably needs to win this to be a realistic chance in the Guineas. However the one I think can win the Guineas is currently at $12.  

 

[LOANCRUSHER 39]

$2 at 115 percentage

[Gruff 2,800]

After the stylish win at Ruakaka you were getting better than $4 top 3, almost as good as the Princess Rihanna $4.50 in the 1000 guineas after watching the sistema,couldn't quite work out what Craig Grylls was trying to do there

[Ohokaman 5,843]

1 hour ago, barryb said:

I am hoping they don’t lengthen Embellish’s price as there are super over on about 5 other runners.

Dark Princess for example is outstanding at $8.20, it’s a hell of a lot closer to Embellish than the odds suggest.

 

Agree there Barry. Monie O'C for longer odds with the claim and better track.

[Tauhei Notts 1,413]

I read a lot of foreign stuff about racing.  I read how the betting authorities in England were disturbed by the bookies' practice of reducing the odds on any horse vetted at the start.  What that means is that the deduction for a late scratching increases.

So imagine my surprise when I saw Chatauqua's odds slashed as he was backed out of the barrier to be vet inspected immediately before the start of the Manikato Stakes.  Yes he was a late scratching, and so the deduction from fixed odds bets on the winner were suitably increased.

They are not bookies; they are fleas.

[LOANCRUSHER 39]

take the $2.20 he will be evens or unders at the off.

[barryb 2,064]

20 minutes ago, LOANCRUSHER said:

take the $2.20 he will be evens or unders at the off.

That just makes a bad bet much worse, hes cronic unders now at $2.20. I have him priced at $3.50. Overs in the race are  #12 Dark Princess $8.00 I have her $6.00,    #10 Monie O'ceirin   $10.00 I have her $8.00,  # 6 The Bandito  $16.00 I have him at $11.00, One of the most unluckiest horses in NZ, last 2 runs suggest massive chance in this.         

 

[Ohokaman 5,843]

15 hours ago, rdytdy said:

Don't know about $4 Rev I would price him at $3 - $3.20. The 2000 Guineas current second favourite at $7.00 was a stylish winner at Ruakaka last start with that form being franked by the second and third horses both winning easily at their next starts. The fourth horse will probably also win next start. He probably needs to win this to be a realistic chance in the Guineas. However the one I think can win the Guineas is currently at $12.  

 

Stablemate is at $16 and might be forgotten Ted....

[richie 1,027]

Embellish Now @$2.10

I think just wins this for fun.

[richie 1,027]

Ended up 1.80 fixed and tote.

And pissed in

[rdytdy 5,343]

Yes. The form was franked yet again from that Ruakaka win with Ever Loyal winning easily in the Zacinto Stakes at Riccarton this afternoon. 

[rdytdy 5,343]

The bookies now have Embellish favourite for the 2000 Guineas ahead of Te Akau Shark who was favourite on $7.00. The question is...which one will Opie ride???  

[rdytdy 5,343]

21 hours ago, rdytdy said:

Don't know about $4 Rev I would price him at $3 - $3.20. The 2000 Guineas current second favourite at $7.00 was a stylish winner at Ruakaka last start with that form being franked by the second and third horses both winning easily at their next starts. The fourth horse will probably also win next start. He probably needs to win this to be a realistic chance in the Guineas. However the one I think can win the Guineas is currently at $12.  

 

The horse that ran fourth in that Ruakaka race should win on Wednesday. 

[Ohokaman 5,843]

51 minutes ago, rdytdy said:

The bookies now have Embellish favourite for the 2000 Guineas ahead of Te Akau Shark who was favourite on $7.00. The question is...which one will Opie ride???  

Probably neither. He will be in Melbourne with Gingernuts in the Emirates.....

[LOANCRUSHER 39]

On Saturday, October 28, 2017 at 4:56 PM, richie said:

Ended up 1.80 fiited and tote.

And pissed in

Best I got was $2.30.

I put up $3 on betfair assuming barryb would take It but He didnt

[richie 1,027]

9 minutes ago, LOANCRUSHER said:

Best I got was $2.30.

I put up $3 on betfair assuming barryb would take It but He didnt

2.30 was good .

[barryb 2,064]

12 minutes ago, LOANCRUSHER said:

Best I got was $2.30.

I put up $3 on betfair assuming barryb would take It but He didnt

$3 was still unders for me, $3.50 break even.

[rdytdy 5,343]

42 minutes ago, barryb said:

$3 was still unders for me, $3.50 break even.

Surely not after Ever Loyal won the stakes race earlier? I took a straight treble and after Jessiegee and Hiflyer won the first two legs it was all over red rover. 

[barryb 2,064]

Yep sure was to me Ted, it was too inexperienced for me to rate shorter.

I found you the 2 minor placings, making the tri.

I very rarely take anything below $3 anyway & was happy to see a good horse win without my cash on it.

[hizzy 52]

On 10/28/2017 at 7:52 AM, Tauhei Notts said:

I read a lot of foreign stuff about racing.  I read how the betting authorities in England were disturbed by the bookies' practice of reducing the odds on any horse vetted at the start.  What that means is that the deduction for a late scratching increases.

So imagine my surprise when I saw Chatauqua's odds slashed as he was backed out of the barrier to be vet inspected immediately before the start of the Manikato Stakes.  Yes he was a late scratching, and so the deduction from fixed odds bets on the winner were suitably increased.

They are not bookies; they are fleas.

Been saying that for yrs Bring back true licence BOOK

 

[Peter Harrop 226]

On 10/28/2017 at 8:22 AM, LOANCRUSHER said:

take the $2.20 he will be evens or unders at the off.

Good call.

[Ohokaman 5,843]

On 10/28/2017 at 6:41 PM, rdytdy said:

The bookies now have Embellish favourite for the 2000 Guineas ahead of Te Akau Shark who was favourite on $7.00. The question is...which one will Opie ride???  

Looks like they have changed their minds again Ted. Opie now staying here to ride Embellish. That's a good push....

Bowman to ride Gingernuts in Melbourne if Winx does not run. Otherwise Blake Shinn.

[chelseacol 2,488]

I see Sumstreetsumwhere sold and not starting in the 2000G

TAB take the opportunity to give a nice haircut to the odds for the race. The one I like which was $12 now into $9. Six horses inside $10. Think I will sit on my hands.....