Gingernuts

[Varro 244]

10 hours ago, 100 1 said:

Ok…. I thought it may test your mindset…so here’s the answer.

From many years of data/ratings with a large sample of REGULARLY RACING horses, after taking into account all the variables, some of which you and I mention, I believe horses run to best their ability approx. 85% - 90% of the time.

Therefore, going back to the original argument of the effect a trainer has on performance…. apparently is negligible.

Horses ratings are incredibly consistent when the variables are CORRECTLY taken into account.

The perception is that they are not consistent.

Hence, is why I alluded to the fact Gingernuts would race up to form in the CC even from missing a lead up run.

The perception from all and sundry on here, when he got beaten (90% + chance of that) will be the missed lead up instead of the mostly likely…..field strength, run etc

I guess you will be backing a newcomer that has been racing recently in the Livarmol rerun.

mate you don't give in do you.

I am making reference to ginger nuts only, not other livamol runners.  My point for the fucking 100th time is that, ginger was heading to the CC.  Other Livamol runners weren't.  gingernuts has only had 2 races this prep.

 

Te Akau said after the Windsor the plan was the CC.  Presumably they were relying on the run in the Livamol to bring him further forward.  It would be silliness to have a horse only 80-90% ready, going into the CC against very good opposition who are fit, and ready.  The main competitors for the CC are having their run this Sat as their final lead up.

 

Of course he could still race in the CC without the Livamol run, I don't dispute that. But would he be competitive.

 

But think about it, because the Livamol date has been changed, Te Akau have now confirmed they are not going for the CC.  What does this tell you?

 

For mine, it tells me that the Livamol being run last Sat was the run ginger needed to be primed for the CC.  If it wasn't, why then have they changed plan and now targeting the EMirates.

 

[Varro 244]

10 hours ago, 100 1 said:

 

Hence, is why I alluded to the fact Gingernuts would race up to form in the CC even from missing a lead up run.

 

Davis Ellis, Jamie Ritchards, Stephen Autridge must disagree given they have pulled pin and are now targeting the Emirates.  The specific reason for this is because the Livamol wasn't run last Saturday.  As they said after the Windsor park the CC was the aim.

Given the train the horse, I would trust the fact that they disagree otherwise im certain they would have started him.

 

Te Akau have never been afraid of taking a horse to Aussie if they thought he was good enough.

 

[Guest 2Admin2]

25 minutes ago, Varro said:

mate you don't give in do you.

I am making reference to ginger nuts only, not other livamol runners.  My point for the fucking 100th time is that, ginger was heading to the CC.  Other Livamol runners weren't.  gingernuts has only had 2 races this prep.

 

Te Akau said after the Windsor the plan was the CC.  Presumably they were relying on the run in the Livamol to bring him further forward.  It would be silliness to have a horse only 80-90% ready, going into the CC against very good opposition who are fit, and ready.  The main competitors for the CC are having their run this Sat as their final lead up.

 

Of course he could still race in the CC without the Livamol run, I don't dispute that. But would he be competitive.

 

But think about it, because the Livamol date has been changed, Te Akau have now confirmed they are not going for the CC.  What does this tell you?

 

For mine, it tells me that the Livamol being run last Sat was the run ginger needed to be primed for the CC.  If it wasn't, why then have they changed plan and now targeting the EMirates.

 

My point is that regardless of missing the Livamol I doubt Gingernuts would have been competitive.  His prior form doesn't point to him being competitive and he would have been giving weight to better horses in my opinion.  He would have had to win the Livamol and win it very well for them to push on which I think was more the consideration than getting another run under his belt.  As an aside, and excuse my ignorance, would he have been rehandicapped for the Caulfield Cup if he won the Livamol?

[Varro 244]

13 minutes ago, 2Admin2 said:

My point is that regardless of missing the Livamol I doubt Gingernuts would have been competitive.  His prior form doesn't point to him being competitive and he would have been giving weight to better horses in my opinion.  He would have had to win the Livamol and win it very well for them to push on which I think was more the consideration than getting another run under his belt.  As an aside, and excuse my ignorance, would he have been rehandicapped for the Caulfield Cup if he won the Livamol?

Hi Admin,

 

Whilst I agree with you, that is a matter of opinion.  The point being Te Akau were relying on the Livamol run to have him forward enough before going to Aus for the CC.  If not, why would they pull pin.  That is my point.

 

Sorry mate cant answer your last question as im not sure.  However I think 55 would have been enough, I cant see a win in the Luvamol warranting an additional handicap.

[Varro 244]

16 minutes ago, hesi said:

Was the Caulfield Stakes(2000m Oct 14), ever an option?

Half a dozen or so in the field, also going for the CC, including Jon Snow and Bonneval.

Only Te Akau could answer that.  For mine would be the more natural lead up to the CC, but that would have been 4 weeks between the Windsor park and this race.

[Ohokaman 5,842]

38 minutes ago, 2Admin2 said:

My point is that regardless of missing the Livamol I doubt Gingernuts would have been competitive.  His prior form doesn't point to him being competitive and he would have been giving weight to better horses in my opinion.  He would have had to win the Livamol and win it very well for them to push on which I think was more the consideration than getting another run under his belt.  As an aside, and excuse my ignorance, would he have been rehandicapped for the Caulfield Cup if he won the Livamol?

Amelies Star was not rehandicapped after her very good win over Almandin and Co so probably not Admin.

[La Zip 468]

I just feel for the owners of this horse...they've had an incredible amount of fun but also had some speed bumps to manoeuvre .......I think they even had to cough up the late entry fee for the Derby?  If he does manage to get to the Mackinnon at least he will be the "fresh" horse on the scene.  Luckily enough it's that time of the year when there are few target events available.   I'm sure there are plenty of tales where Plan B does come off .....and I do think going to Flemington will suit him as Caulfield can be tricky first up.  And of course The Championships at Easter will provide them with another opportunity ....and the perhaps a European sortie...

[Guest 2Admin2]

14 minutes ago, Ohokaman said:

Amelies Star was not rehandicapped after her very good win over Almandin and Co so probably not Admin.

Might have lost weight for winning the Livamol!  Especially if Kawi ran second! 

[porky 900]

This has been an intriguing battle...and I thought, Bonneval (with her slight weight advantage) was a good thing and NZ,S top chance

to bring home the Caulfield and possibly Melbourne Cups.

top proven stayers already, kiwis to boot,...I backed Gingernuts 2nd day over 1600m,  Hastings @ 5s , then took the 2,s in the Livermol..2000

thinking he would win by 5 lengths and set up a kiwi showdown in Melbourne...WHAT A SHAME.

(I ...and many others, wonder, how much talent ability and potential he posseses)

11 hours ago, 100 1 said:

 

I guess you will be backing a newcomer that has been racing recently in the Livarmol rerun.

 

It was a head scratchier to me also 100 1...why they wouldn't press on, and carry on to Melbourne and rescedule from there...

BUT ...I think common sense has prevailed. IMHO only

La Zip, if Connections and Te Akau have mapped out a plan B following the Livermol...GOOD LUCK TO GINGERNUTS !  

[Trump 2,741]

I don't think a horse can be re-handicapped for winning a WFA race. Also, at the weights, it's hard to see how GNuts could beat Bon in the CC. She's the one that has beaten the hcp'er. Only bad luck or a poor ride (Remember Veandercross?) can beat her, or if the  legendary Horse Stopper goes public and selects her to win!  

[Shad 1,558]

Nice win by his half brother today at gore today.

[Double R 260]

New rider for Saturday.

Michael Dee replaces the suspended Hugh Bowman.

[scooby3051 10,933]

1 hour ago, Double R said:

New rider for Saturday.

Michael Dee replaces the suspended Hugh Bowman.

Good choice top young rider... Bowman is too hit and miss.

[hizzy 52]

On 10/10/2017 at 0:14 PM, Varro said:

Hello nice option, ill try.

1.  they will have a schedule in place.  The plan would have been to fly out to Melbourne presumably this week.

2. Travel can be really tough on horses

3. he travelled to hastings, (no race), travel to Caulfield underdone,  more travel for the horse, and connections may have had a schedule were the run in the livamol would have been designed to have him peaking for the Caulfield cup.

The costs are extraordinary to fly to Melbourne, race in the cup, then fly back.  It would not make sense to travel given the prep hasn't gone to plan, would be on a hiding to nothing and potentially cost the owners.

They realised that using a NZ programme, that they needed to have a plan B.  The plan B is to now target the emirates, 2000m at Flemington.  They will design a new plan.

I hope that explains why it is possible they wouldn't just go to matamata or somewere else, they are trying to stick to a plan which they might think gives the horse the best chance, considering travel, racing, recovery.

 

that's what I would assume anyway.

 

Mr Ellis should not be completely surprised by this anyway, he knew before hand it was a possibility. 

 

Mr M Baker knw this too, well I think he did, and I think explains why he decided to prepare his horses in Australia.  Perhaps he felt over there it is easier to stick to plan a

Maybe Murray that much smarter and new the pitfalls Well said 

[Guest 2Admin2]

1 hour ago, scooby3051 said:

Good choice top young rider... Bowman is too hit and miss.

You're kidding?  1 in 5 win record and 1 in 2 place record?

[scooby3051 10,933]

1 hour ago, 2Admin2 said:

You're kidding?  1 in 5 win record and 1 in 2 place record?

Your opinion which you are entitled to as I am mine... cheers....Michael Dee will give it a much better ride in my opinion...

[Guest 2Admin2]

2 minutes ago, scooby3051 said:

Your opinion which you are entitled to as I am mine... cheers....Michael Dee will give it a much better ride in my opinion...

Strike rate 1 in 10 win and 1 in 5 place.  

Why will he give a better ride?

[Trump 2,741]

3 hours ago, 2Admin2 said:

You're kidding?  1 in 5 win record and 1 in 2 place record?

Take Winx out (anyone could win on her) and Bowman's record is not that flash the last few months. Has he ridden a winner in Melbourne apart from Winx? Not many I'd say at a guess. Michael Walker has ridden more winners this Melb carnival so far. Bowman's ride on Marmelo was a shocker. He must have asked Frankie how to ride the race!  

[scooby3051 10,933]

2 hours ago, 2Admin2 said:

Strike rate 1 in 10 win and 1 in 5 place.  

Why will he give a better ride?

I said its my opinion which part of that dont you understand...Mick will be happy to have obtained a good ride in a big race and In my opinion will try much harder to be successful...you think bowman is a better rider your opinion..i don't have the same opinion... so now please stop arguing just for the sake of arguing..cheers.

[scooby3051 10,933]

Anyway Admin you will be hoping it goes no good so what do you care how it is ridden....

 

[chelseacol 2,488]

Let's face it - worrying about what jockey rides is a waste of time. 

If im being kind I'll say they are only human. As the MC shows the supposed best throw in shockers regularly. Yeah commentators fall over themselves to praise a good ride - but forget the ones they butcher. If jockeys could do anything else than sit on a horse they would  ......

Concentrate on the horse etc and just hope the jock doesn't have a brain explosion

[Guest 2Admin2]

I'm not arguing for the sake of arguing.  The statement about Bowman was ridiculous.  He has ridden over 1600 black type winners.

Won 72 Group 1 races.

$147 million in stakes.

Currently ranked 2nd in Oz metro.

Incredible strike rate for distances 2000m and longer.

I'm not coating that with sugar syrup "JMHO" - it's fact.

I'd know who'd I rather have riding Gingernuts.  Oh and wasn't Bowman their FIRST choice?

[Memphis2 1,078]

To be fair Scoob said it was his opinion. His jockey choice

Walker is riding well  . Super ride on Fanatic  . Damian Lane bit of an unsung  hero  . Mick Dee will be front and centre after these Group wins  

The last time I backed Bowman he fell off in Sydney  

hero  . 

 

 

[gary1 361]

18 hours ago, Trump said:

Take Winx out (anyone could win on her) and Bowman's record is not that flash the last few months. Has he ridden a winner in Melbourne apart from Winx? Not many I'd say at a guess. Michael Walker has ridden more winners this Melb carnival so far. Bowman's ride on Marmelo was a shocker. He must have asked Frankie how to ride the race!  

you only  need to win the best race of the carnival anyway he he rode the last winner today plus a few placings m dee has a long way to go before he fills hughs boots

[gary1 361]

11 hours ago, 2Admin2 said:

I'm not arguing for the sake of arguing.  The statement about Bowman was ridiculous.  He has ridden over 1600 black type winners.

Won 72 Group 1 races.

$147 million in stakes.

Currently ranked 2nd in Oz metro.

Incredible strike rate for distances 2000m and longer.

I'm not coating that with sugar syrup "JMHO" - it's fact.

I'd know who'd I rather have riding Gingernuts.  Oh and wasn't Bowman their FIRST choice?

lay of the day if track is good