RaceCafe..#1...Tipsters Thread.... Share Your Fancies For Fun...Lets See Who The Best Tipsters Here Are.
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Gingernuts

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7 minutes ago, 100 1 said:

If the other runners don't run below par why should Gingernuts?  therefore why stress about missing a lead up?

All the horses in the field are at their peak.... the peak lasts a long time...variables change! 

your talking about a horses lead up run to the Caulfield cup.  im not going to bother with you.  If you don't get it then there is no hope for you

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6 minutes ago, Varro said:

so what is your point, I quote you "The other consideration with Gingernuts is he wouldn't even win a maiden race if smothered in the field with horses all around. Making a run wide say from the 600m would see him get 2nd in the Cox Plate and who knows Winx could have some bad luck as well."

when he won the rating 65 mile at Tauranga, he was in the trail surrounded.  When he won the race before derby, he hugged the fence, and towards the tail, but still in and around them.  If you look at the replay, there were horses around him in both these races.  I don't accept your point.  You can easily watch the replay on NZ racing website should you wish to dispute.  So he has made your theory look messay already having won a rating 65 and a group 2, being amongst other runners.  in particular rating 65 race. 

well I don't know, you tell me.  Was he happy with the draw later in the day when he knew the rain was going to change the track, or before the race when it was a good track.

If you suggest that he was happy with gate 17, on a good track, please substantiate this with evidence

You should apply for fake news editor.

Gingernuts failed dismally at Tauranga when smothered in the field. Same thing at Stratford where he reacted badly close to home. THere was an improvement when blinkers went on and in the 1600m WFA at Hawkes Bay raced quite kindly but on the outer. Bosson's comment "still learning". N.B.  Autridge's comments done when a firm track was the prospect.

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1 minute ago, 2Admin2 said:

Winx spelled after the Cox Plate last year.

have to wait and see admin, she is certainly nominated, and nominated with the cox plate already in mind.  Have to wait and see

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9 minutes ago, 100 1 said:

If the other runners don't run below par why should Gingernuts?  therefore why stress about missing a lead up?

All the horses in the field are at their peak.... the peak lasts a long time...variables change! 

no in fact I bite.

again, I have only made reference to gingernuts.  no other livamol runners.

 

So explain to me, were did I say that other livamol runners would perform poorly in their next start? 

 

The difference here is that gingernuts has a trip across the tasman, and would have been facing bonneval and co, don't you think missing this run would significantly hamper his chances?  especially as most of the Caulfield cup entrants are racing this weekend.  So for mine, what would then concern me is now the amount of travel time he would have, then versus ongoing training and care, versus another lead up run (and were would you place him) verse ensuring the horse has ample time to recover and rest.  So you have all these decisions to make, because plan A didn't work. Horses aren't machines, hence why following a plan is important.

 

 

you are one fucking bright spark

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9 minutes ago, slam dunk said:

You should apply for fake news editor.

Gingernuts failed dismally at Tauranga when smothered in the field. Same thing at Stratford where he reacted badly close to home. THere was an improvement when blinkers went on and in the 1600m WFA at Hawkes Bay raced quite kindly but on the outer. Bosson's comment "still learning". N.B.  Autridge's comments done when a firm track was the prospect.

on the 30th of Jan 2017 Gingernuts won a rating 65 mile at BOP ridden by matt Cameron, won sitting in the trail.  this is in his record and video replay.  I suggest giving yourself the strongest possible uppercut

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6 minutes ago, Varro said:

on the 30th of Jan 2017 Gingernuts won a rating 65 mile at BOP ridden by matt Cameron, won sitting in the trail.  this is in his record and video replay.  I suggest giving yourself the strongest possible uppercut

You obviously have never been to NZ and know nothing about our tracks. OK Gingernuts won at Te Teko in a smallish weak field the first time blinkers went on. Only one horse i.e. second horse has won since and then only on a wet tracks. Tauranga is BOP and Gingernuts failed dismally  there but to be fair didn't see much daylight. Nevertheless the evidence is quite clear until he learns Gingernuts is best kept in the open. Full stop I'm off walking the dog.

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I have always found it interesting how Australasian trainers believe you have to get 3-4 races into our horses before big staying races. Remember Bart's 10k of racing before the Melb Cup.

But the Europeans will sometimes go into big staying races with maybe one start (sometimes none). They don't have many trials there either eh.

Are their horses really that different? I appreciate the likes of Aiden O'Brien have real fire power in terms of facilities, tracks and other horses to work with.

I'd be interested in the thoughts of Chris Woods etc. thanks,   Matt

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3 minutes ago, Mattski said:

I have always found it interesting how Australasian trainers believe you have to get 3-4 races into our horses before big staying races. Remember Bart's 10k of racing before the Melb Cup.

But the Europeans will sometimes go into big staying races with maybe one start (sometimes none). They don't have many trials there either eh.

Are their horses really that different? I appreciate the likes of Aiden O'Brien have real fire power in terms of facilities, tracks and other horses to work with.

I'd be interested in the thoughts of Chris Woods etc. thanks,   Matt

Matt, your exactly right.  the approach taken is very different.  And in Japan its different again.

Leo, anything you can add here, you have had some foreign exposure?

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Guest 2Admin2
4 minutes ago, Mattski said:

I have always found it interesting how Australasian trainers believe you have to get 3-4 races into our horses before big staying races. Remember Bart's 10k of racing before the Melb Cup.

But the Europeans will sometimes go into big staying races with maybe one start (sometimes none). They don't have many trials there either eh.

Are their horses really that different? I appreciate the likes of Aiden O'Brien have real fire power in terms of facilities, tracks and other horses to work with.

I'd be interested in the thoughts of Chris Woods etc. thanks,   Matt

Yep I've always wondered that too.  My understanding is they do lots of long aerobic work - lots and lots of walking.  Remember Kiwi won the Melbourne Cup going to the track each day and doing one lap galloping the last 800m.  But if my information is correct did lots of walking on the Snowy's dairy farm.

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11 minutes ago, slam dunk said:

You obviously have never been to NZ and know nothing about our tracks. OK Gingernuts won at Te Teko in a smallish weak field the first time blinkers went on. Only one horse i.e. second horse has won since and then only on a wet tracks. Tauranga is BOP and Gingernuts failed dismally  there but to be fair didn't see much daylight. Nevertheless the evidence is quite clear until he learns Gingernuts is best kept in the open. Full stop I'm off walking the dog.

I live in west Auckland, have grown up around horses and was involved for about 15 years in helping with the training of horses.

 

I do not care which track, but NZ racing website says below,ginger.JPG.6cc4742b6c42c5c43f863a839d0a85ec.JPG

 

you said he wouldn't win a maiden if he was smothered, I have shown you evidence were he won a rating 65 mile with horses around him.

 

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15 minutes ago, Mattski said:

I have always found it interesting how Australasian trainers believe you have to get 3-4 races into our horses before big staying races. Remember Bart's 10k of racing before the Melb Cup.

But the Europeans will sometimes go into big staying races with maybe one start (sometimes none). They don't have many trials there either eh.

Are their horses really that different? I appreciate the likes of Aiden O'Brien have real fire power in terms of facilities, tracks and other horses to work with.

I'd be interested in the thoughts of Chris Woods etc. thanks,   Matt

Big thing is training facilities and how the horses are worked, complete different style of training and a lot of it has to with facilities and the surroundings that overseas horses are stabled/worked in.

Lots of walking, plenty of slow work, not just galloping around a circle, working on the Heath, Uphill gallops, so many things .Completely different ball game

Anyone that's been lucky enough to visit the Newmarket Heath, Chantilly, The Curragh or the likes will have an understanding of how different it is, you really have to visit to really understand how different it is

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22 minutes ago, Varro said:

no in fact I bite.

again, I have only made reference to gingernuts.  no other livamol runners.

 

So explain to me, were did I say that other livamol runners would perform poorly in their next start? 

 

The difference here is that gingernuts has a trip across the tasman, and would have been facing bonneval and co, don't you think missing this run would significantly hamper his chances?  especially as most of the Caulfield cup entrants are racing this weekend.  So for mine, what would then concern me is now the amount of travel time he would have, then versus ongoing training and care, versus another lead up run (and were would you place him) verse ensuring the horse has ample time to recover and rest.  So you have all these decisions to make, because plan A didn't work. Horses aren't machines, hence why following a plan is important.

 

 

you are one fucking bright spark

Your saying Gingernuts needs a run before the CC but the other Livamol runners don't...very logical!

I'm saying he doesn't need a run ...it will make no difference...luck in the running and field strength will determine the outcome not a lead up race....guessing hes about a 8% chance

without looking at the field.

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2 minutes ago, 2Admin2 said:

Yep I've always wondered that too.  My understanding is they do lots of long aerobic work - lots and lots of walking.  Remember Kiwi won the Melbourne Cup going to the track each day and doing one lap galloping the last 800m.  But if my information is correct did lots of walking on the Snowy's dairy farm.

you are right admin, and they seem to retain that residual racing fitness too.  I suspect because they are kept ticking over for a long time.  I mean just look at Red Cadeaux, had maybe 1 start every 1 or 2 months, but lalways turned up looking sharp and fit

 

Could that be because there is often a tendency to geld late over there, or retain the horse as a stallion.  Obviously depends on the horse but maybe keep a stallion or colt in work is a easier way of keeping the horse busy, healthy, fit and with the mind on the job?>

 

obviously massive difference in facilities over there too.

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Just now, 100 1 said:

Your saying Gingernuts needs a run before the CC but the other Livamol runners don't...very logical!

I'm saying he doesn't need a run ...it will make no difference...luck in the running and field strength will determine the outcome not a lead up race....guessing hes about a 8% chance

without looking at the field.

ok mate, you stick with whatever you believe in.  If you think a horse having 2 runs before the Caulfield cup is ok, in only 1400 and 1600 meteres races well then, thank f### your not a trainer of any of my horses.

 

and as far as I know gingernuts was the only horse from the livamol going for the CC, so my reference was to him missing the run before the CC.  If its the same horses contesting the livamol, they are all in the same boat aren't they

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9 minutes ago, 100 1 said:

Your saying Gingernuts needs a run before the CC but the other Livamol runners don't...very logical!

I'm saying he doesn't need a run ...it will make no difference...luck in the running and field strength will determine the outcome not a lead up race....guessing hes about a 8% chance

without looking at the field.

other livamol runners to my knowledge are not racing in the CC

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Guest 2Admin2

I've always thought that many of our trainers are somewhat one dimensional in their training e.g. they start a stayer out in a 1200m race, then step up to 1400m, then 1600m, then 2000m, then 2400m.  Compare Baker's approach with Bonneval - after a 5 week spell kicks off over 1600m, then 2000m, 2100m, 2400m 2400m.

Spelled 22 weeks - then kicks off over 1600m freshened 3 weeks and then up to 1800m.

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and ironically the connections of EVERY winner of the major Aussie Spring races will say 'we set him for this months ago' making themselves look like training geniuses yet only one can win anyway. Bottom line is if the connections aren't happy they're better not to proceed if in any doubt.

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Without getting into the idiosyncrasies of the individual horse....

Its proving on here as long as a horse is healthy and getting exercised regularly over time, it doesn't matter too much what you do.

Never heard a trainer interviewed saying the horse is not right.

The ability of the horse is paramount to success.....it basically only runs hard for 1 -2 minutes

As for progressive build up distances doesn't make that much sense as often 1200m are run hard and distance races are often 600m sprint homes after walks early.

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19 minutes ago, 100 1 said:

Without getting into the idiosyncrasies of the individual horse....

Its proving on here as long as a horse is healthy and getting exercised regularly over time, it doesn't matter too much what you do.

Never heard a trainer interviewed saying the horse is not right.

The ability of the horse is paramount to success.....it basically only runs hard for 1 -2 minutes

As for progressive build up distances doesn't make that much sense as often 1200m are run hard and distance races are often 600m sprint homes after walks early.

You have repeatedly shown yourself to be a completely uneducated fool. 

 

It matters absolutely what you do. I'm guessing if you owned a horse, because it can walk around the paddock, show a bit of dash and can jump over its own shadow, if you were racing one you would have no hesitations lining up whenever suits you, for the same horse you might line it up in a sprint race, next start might be a steeple, then maybe back to a sprint, or then to a 2000 meter race. Going by your logic horse will be fine, shows speed at home, runs around so must b fit, gets a bit of exercise and is healthy so must be OK. I bow to your knowledge and success as a form analyst of 30 years

Edited by Varro
Suggested this tool was a trainer wen infact he said form analyst.

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3 hours ago, Varro said:

ok mate, you stick with whatever you believe in.  If you think a horse having 2 runs before the Caulfield cup is ok, in only 1400 and 1600 meteres races well then, thank f### your not a trainer of any of my horses.

 

and as far as I know gingernuts was the only horse from the livamol going for the CC, so my reference was to him missing the run before the CC.  If its the same horses contesting the livamol, they are all in the same boat aren't they

varro are you saying its not alright for a horse to only have 2 starts  before the caulfield cup

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1 hour ago, 100 1 said:

Ok e.g if a horse ability on a firm track was rated 78 @1200m  85@1600m  & 95@2200m I believe it wouldn't matter what sequence you ran the races it

would rate the same at the respective distances.

 

Sorry I really don't understand your point

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31 minutes ago, gary1 said:

varro are you saying its not alright for a horse to only have 2 starts  before the caulfield cup

Hi Gary no, not at all. 

It is clear tht te  akau were relying on the livamol run in order to have ginger primed for the cc. If it wasn't then they would have proceeded to the cup. 

My point above was made because 100 suggested he should have continued to the cc and he should be OK. 

I think this is crazy, crazy because what it tells me us that the livamol was needed for ginger to prime him for the cup, going in with the 2 starts would have him underdone. I think I'm right in saying this otherwise surely the akau would have carried on with plan a, no? And then why would you continue with the plan as 100 suggest with a horse that the trainers think needs another run before the cup, risk injury with a underdone horse. Hopefully that explains my rationale

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