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After watching the weigh in  last evening , you could  not feel more sorry for the Connections of Gingernuts  after the the postponement  of the Group 1 race on Sat.

You could tell the despair on David Ellis face

Would have been great to see Gingernuts in the Caulfield/Melbourne Cup

Good Luck  for what ever races they go for

Hope to see  Gingernuts  live in the Mackinnon in Melbourne

Also I feel for all the other connections who could not race horses Sat

Best of the with these horses also

 

 

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21 minutes ago, poundforpound said:

What address should I send the nurses to ??

LOL...so all the horses that were entered for the Livamol last Sat will run below par next start?.....presumably Oct 22....Yeah right

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Can someone answer this question for me, however simple it may be...

Why is it some important for Gingernuts to have contested the Livamol and, more importantly, why does having missed the race mean the Aussie campaign is over?

Couldnt they simply head back to Matamata (or find a track with decent footing) , get a few other nags and simply race Gingernuts really hard over 2040 metres, essentially replicating the race?

Now I realise that the opposition will be hard to get and will in no way replicate the field he would have met in the Livamol but im sure that Te Akau could pull a few strings in that regard by even looking within their stables. 

It just seems to me that you are poutting alot of eggs into the basket if the Livamol is the make or break for an Aussie campaign.

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30 minutes ago, Nice Option said:

Can someone answer this question for me, however simple it may be...

Why is it some important for Gingernuts to have contested the Livamol and, more importantly, why does having missed the race mean the Aussie campaign is over?

Couldnt they simply head back to Matamata (or find a track with decent footing) , get a few other nags and simply race Gingernuts really hard over 2040 metres, essentially replicating the race?

Now I realise that the opposition will be hard to get and will in no way replicate the field he would have met in the Livamol but im sure that Te Akau could pull a few strings in that regard by even looking within their stables. 

It just seems to me that you are poutting alot of eggs into the basket if the Livamol is the make or break for an Aussie campaign.

 

Coulda gone to trials at Ruakaka today.

Totally unnecessary but would make the connections feel good.

10 Oct

Trial Morning
Weather: Cloudy
Track: Dead 5
Rail: Out 8m 
Weather and Track updated at 9.16am Tuesday 10 October

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ac00811d-beab-4760-af11-d54b704ee5a7_800 Labour leader Jacinda Ardern and team about to head into talks with NZ First - bearing a gift of chocolate wheatens (poking out from behind her folder) and ginger nuts. Photo / Sec Jodi Ihaka Twitter

There's a good omen from the wee lass:)

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2 minutes ago, hesi said:

ac00811d-beab-4760-af11-d54b704ee5a7_800 Labour leader Jacinda Ardern and team about to head into talks with NZ First - bearing a gift of chocolate wheatens (poking out from behind her folder) and ginger nuts. Photo / Sec Jodi Ihaka Twitter

There's a good omen from the wee lass:)

What a motley crew that is.....King just won't go away...let's hope Winston has more sense....;)

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3 hours ago, 100 1 said:

Trainers are paranoiac when it comes to missing lead up races when in reality it doesn't make a scrap of difference.

All perception no logic IMO

you take the cake for stupid comment of the week

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2 hours ago, Nice Option said:

Can someone answer this question for me, however simple it may be...

Why is it some important for Gingernuts to have contested the Livamol and, more importantly, why does having missed the race mean the Aussie campaign is over?

Couldnt they simply head back to Matamata (or find a track with decent footing) , get a few other nags and simply race Gingernuts really hard over 2040 metres, essentially replicating the race?

Now I realise that the opposition will be hard to get and will in no way replicate the field he would have met in the Livamol but im sure that Te Akau could pull a few strings in that regard by even looking within their stables. 

It just seems to me that you are poutting alot of eggs into the basket if the Livamol is the make or break for an Aussie campaign.

Hello nice option, ill try.

1.  they will have a schedule in place.  The plan would have been to fly out to Melbourne presumably this week.

2. Travel can be really tough on horses

3. he travelled to hastings, (no race), travel to Caulfield underdone,  more travel for the horse, and connections may have had a schedule were the run in the livamol would have been designed to have him peaking for the Caulfield cup.

The costs are extraordinary to fly to Melbourne, race in the cup, then fly back.  It would not make sense to travel given the prep hasn't gone to plan, would be on a hiding to nothing and potentially cost the owners.

They realised that using a NZ programme, that they needed to have a plan B.  The plan B is to now target the emirates, 2000m at Flemington.  They will design a new plan.

I hope that explains why it is possible they wouldn't just go to matamata or somewere else, they are trying to stick to a plan which they might think gives the horse the best chance, considering travel, racing, recovery.

 

that's what I would assume anyway.

 

Mr Ellis should not be completely surprised by this anyway, he knew before hand it was a possibility. 

 

Mr M Baker knw this too, well I think he did, and I think explains why he decided to prepare his horses in Australia.  Perhaps he felt over there it is easier to stick to plan a

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With $1.2m won in stakes, even with Te Akau training fees, I'm sure cost wouldn't have been a factor.  Another thing to consider is has there been any form out of his Rosehill Guineas win?  

I notice a number of Caulfield Cup nominated horses are going around this coming Saturday.  In fact if you look at some of the programmes to date of the other nominations Gingernuts could still have matched some of them.  Although that comes down to the individual horse I guess.  On a decent track you would surely place 5 or 6 ahead of Gingernuts in the Caulfield Cup.

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Hi Admin,

final acceptance for the cup is around 25k, plus travel and other expenses, looking at perhaps 40k roughly?  fair amount to spend on a interrupted prep don't you think?

Surely they are probably thinking too that as the prep was interrupted, why bust the horse against say Bonneval, who has had their prep go to plan by comparison.  Their plan B is still a rich target anyway.

 

Plus the horse can probably just continue picking us wins domestically, and wouldn't disadvantage him too much with ratings in Australia. 

 

And your right, the form from the rosehill guineas is not showing much.

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3 minutes ago, Varro said:

Hi Admin,

final acceptance for the cup is around 25k, plus travel and other expenses, looking at perhaps 40k roughly?  fair amount to spend on a interrupted prep don't you think?

Surely they are probably thinking too that as the prep was interrupted, why bust the horse against say Bonneval, who has had their prep go to plan by comparison.  Their plan B is still a rich target anyway.

 

Plus the horse can probably just continue picking us wins domestically, and wouldn't disadvantage him too much with ratings in Australia. 

 

And your right, the form from the rosehill guineas is not showing much.

The cost is relative to his stake earnings to date.  I'm sure they haven't dented the $1.2m too much.  His preparation last year wasn't exactly classic was it?

The Emirates isn't what it used to be in terms of class so an easier option.  I'd still be keeping an eye on the weather forecast though.

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Admin,

 

it is still just roughly 40k.  If it was my horse, regardless of how much he won before, is still a lot to pay for a prep that hasn't gone to plan, its a risk.  It was already a risk before hand as his 3 year old form didn't appear as strong as that of Bonneval.   And what race would they target next to keep him on track for the cup.  Most of them are racing this coming weekend anyway.

Winx is nominated for the emirates. 

I personally wouldn't be surprised if they try and save him for the autumn and target sydneys carnival, perhaps a tilt at the BMW.  especially as typically they get quite a lot of rain around then, and this bloke seems to ping off a track that has the sting out of it

 

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57 minutes ago, Varro said:

you take the cake for stupid comment of the week

Varro.....so all the horses that were entered for the Livamol last Sat will run below par next start?.....presumably Oct 22

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19 minutes ago, 100 1 said:

Varro.....so all the horses that were entered for the Livamol last Sat will run below par next start?.....presumably Oct 22

stupid question, and I didn't say that.  I was only referring to the preparation of ginger nuts and trying to race him for the Caulfield cup.  I made no mention of other horses in the livamol.

And I see the point you are trying to make, but it is stupid.

The livamol, all the horses will be in the same boat, none of them if contesting the livamol will be likely to race again before contesting the race, they all race facing the same challenge of an extra couple of weeks between runs.

 

My point was gingernuts will be taking on board the cream of the crop, and a huge huge ask to ask him to contest the Caulfield cup with this interruption.

Edited by Varro
made incorrect statement, changed to reflect that livamol runners face the same challenge of the delay between when they raced in the group 1 mile, and then racing in the Livamol

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3 minutes ago, Varro said:

stupid question, and I didn't say that.  I was only referring to the preparation of ginger nuts and trying to race him for the Caulfield cup.  I made no mention of other horses in the livamol.

And I see the point you are trying to make, but it is stupid.

The livamol, all the horses will be in the same boat, none of them if contesting the livamol will be likely to race again before contesting the race, they all race facing the same challenge of missing a lead up run.

My point was gingernuts will be taking on board the cream of the crop, and a huge huge ask to ask him to contest the Caulfield cup with this interruption.

How come English trainers come from the other side of the world, go thru with stringent quarantine regime yet are able to go into the cups in some cases not having raced for six months.

The reason for the lead up races is probably to show Te Akau that 2400 at Caulfield is a suitable race whereas English trainers know from day one what their target is.

Te Akau made a strategic mistake.

The progression should have been Epsom Hcp/Cox Plate/ Mckinnon. Stks. Apart from Happy Clapper the Epsom was extremely weak Gingernuts would have won it or finished 2nd.

The other consideration with Gingernuts is he wouldn't even win a maiden race if smothered in the field with horses all around. Making a run wide say from the 600m would see him get 2nd in the Cox Plate and who knows Winx could have some bad luck as well.

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4 minutes ago, slam dunk said:

How come English trainers come from the other side of the world, go thru with stringent quarantine regime yet are able to go into the cups in some cases not having raced for six months.

The reason for the lead up races is probably to show Te Akau that 2400 at Caulfield is a suitable race whereas English trainers know from day one what their target is.

Te Akau made a strategic mistake.

The progression should have been Epsom Hcp/Cox Plate/ Mckinnon. Stks. Apart from Happy Clapper the Epsom was extremely weak Gingernuts would have won it or finished 2nd.

The other consideration with Gingernuts is he wouldn't even win a maiden race if smothered in the field with horses all around. Making a run wide say from the 600m would see him get 2nd in the Cox Plate and who knows Winx could have some bad luck as well.

jesus Christ,

 

there is a massive massive difference typically between the way horses and specifically stayers are trained in Australia as opposed to European stayers.  And this is very very well documented.

 

Sorry mate im not even going to bother.  Did you see Gingernuts win the Avondale guineas?  if not go watch it, that is a far better race than a maiden, and shows your theory on him is not very good

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3 minutes ago, 100 1 said:

After 30 years of being a form analyst I have seen no evidence of horses performing below normal from missing lead up races unless there was a physical problem.

I give up.  it is about having the horse peak for the race, at peak physical condition.  FFS. 

'

again were did I say that the other livamol runners would run below par next start?

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6 minutes ago, Varro said:

jesus Christ,

there is a massive massive difference typically between the way horses and specifically stayers are trained in Australia as opposed to European stayers.  And this is very very well documented.

Sorry mate im not even going to bother.  Did you see Gingernuts win the Avondale guineas?  if not go watch it, that is a far better race than a maiden, and shows your theory on him is not very good

You must be blind. When Gingernuts got going in the Avondale Guineas there was a gaping hole and no horses on the inside. Why was Autridge quite happy that Gingernuts drew 17 in the Livermol,

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so what is your point, I quote you "The other consideration with Gingernuts is he wouldn't even win a maiden race if smothered in the field with horses all around. Making a run wide say from the 600m would see him get 2nd in the Cox Plate and who knows Winx could have some bad luck as well."

 

when he won the rating 65 mile at Tauranga, he was in the trail surrounded.  When he won the race before derby, he hugged the fence, and towards the tail, but still in and around them.  If you look at the replay, there were horses around him in both these races.  I don't accept your point.  You can easily watch the replay on NZ racing website should you wish to dispute.  So he has made your theory look messay already having won a rating 65 and a group 2, being amongst other runners.  in particular rating 65 race. 

well I don't know, you tell me.  Was he happy with the draw later in the day when he knew the rain was going to change the track, or before the race when it was a good track.

 

If you suggest that he was happy with gate 17, on a good track, please substantiate this with evidence

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18 minutes ago, Varro said:

I give up.  it is about having the horse peak for the race, at peak physical condition.  FFS. 

'

again were did I say that the other livamol runners would run below par next start?

If the other runners don't run below par why should Gingernuts?  therefore why stress about missing a lead up?

All the horses in the field are at their peak.... the peak lasts a long time...variables change! 

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