RaceCafe..#1...Tipsters Thread.... Share Your Fancies For Fun...Lets See Who The Best Tipsters Here Are.
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Michael Guerin comments on TAB FF odds!

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It was quite enlightening tonight when Mickey Guerin was commenting about the opening fixed odds being offered 

by the TAB for Addington Premier meeting tomorrow night.

He was commenting about some of the odds that were being offered and stated that he didn't see much value in some of 

them.

Mickey stated.  "that it wasn't up to the TAB to offer value for the punters"

God Mickey you hit it on the head!

There is no value on anything all night especially when the racing is on a Premier night and the fields are always very even.

Absolutely pointless bringing the Final Field odds out when they are offering such pathetic odds and can't see why anyone would

offload with what they have offered.

Have you noticed that the supposed big win bets recently being announced total a net win of $2000 and the place as we know is only net $1000

Any bigger bets that they announce that they have taken have clearly been taken from known losing punters.

Time the TAB came clean and states to everyone that  is their policy that they have adopted.

Yes I know some will come on and have a crack at "The Brodster" but if you are getting bigger bets on then you are a known losing punter, which they love.

 

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1 hour ago, Brodie said:

It was quite enlightening tonight when Mickey Guerin was commenting about the opening fixed odds being offered 

by the TAB for Addington Premier meeting tomorrow night.

He was commenting about some of the odds that were being offered and stated that he didn't see much value in some of 

them.

Mickey stated.  "that it wasn't up to the TAB to offer value for the punters"

God Mickey you hit it on the head!

There is no value on anything all night especially when the racing is on a Premier night and the fields are always very even.

Absolutely pointless bringing the Final Field odds out when they are offering such pathetic odds and can't see why anyone would

offload with what they have offered.

Have you noticed that the supposed big win bets recently being announced total a net win of $2000 and the place as we know is only net $1000

Any bigger bets that they announce that they have taken have clearly been taken from known losing punters.

Time the TAB came clean and states to everyone that  is their policy that they have adopted.

Yes I know some will come on and have a crack at "The Brodster" but if you are getting bigger bets on then you are a known losing punter, which they love.

 

And yet the Whale was on TV tonight saying "you can not say the TAB do not offer value'. I think he was talking about Delightful Zen who he said opened longer than $7.00 and was over the odds at that price.

$1.50 is value if you know it is a winner and it wins.

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33 minutes ago, Kotare_Hunter said:

Have you written to them ?

No, I am sure they are aware of what is going on!

The win bets announced at Cambridge clearly shows the 2k limit on win bets and the $1k place is well known.

Yet they took a 6k bet on Nakayla Franco at 5.50  at Mot last Sunday!

It did go well but if a winning punter wanted that on whether it be on their account on agency they would not have got it on.

Whoever placed that bet would have a record of losing and that is why they accepted it!

All punters should be treated equally and I know from many punters, that the differential treatment of punters is morally wrong.

 

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4 minutes ago, GoHarness said:

And yet the Whale was on TV tonight saying "you can not say the TAB do not offer value'. I think he was talking about Delightful Zen who he said opened longer than $7.00 and was over the odds at that price.

$1.50 is value if you know it is a winner and it wins.

Craig works for the TAB effectively by working for Trackside.

It his  job to promote the TAB surely?

He is employed by Trackside, has a tipping line which is paid for by other punters to beat the TAB Bookies plus he punts with The TAB bookie as well, so seems a bit of an odd mix when he is also tipping horses on Trackside doesn't it?

No $1.50 is not value just because it wins.

Pointless backing unders as you will end up losing!

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2 minutes ago, Brodie said:

Craig works for the TAB effectively by working for Trackside.

It his  job to promote the TAB surely?

He is employed by Trackside, has a tipping line which is paid for by other punters to beat the TAB Bookies plus he punts with The TAB bookie as well, so seems a bit of an odd mix when he is also tipping horses on Trackside doesn't it?

No $1.50 is not value just because it wins.

Pointless backing unders as you will end up losing!

So if you are such an expert at what is value and what is not.....  if you see no value in the opening odds then the bookmakers must have the market set correctly or close to what you perceive to be the right price.

 

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31 minutes ago, GoHarness said:

So if you are such an expert at what is value and what is not.....  if you see no value in the opening odds then the bookmakers must have the market set correctly or close to what you perceive to be the right price.

 

GoHarness, that comment makes absolutely no sense whatsoever!

If I see no value whatsoever how does that make the market set correctly?

Surely the TAB Bookies want punters investing, and if their odds are crap there won't be any investing!!!

What is wrong with offering fair value to the punters so they can have a go?

What the hell, s wrong with allowing some people to win as there will be more that lose!

I thought the TAB was a gambling business, but obviously it isn't?

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5 minutes ago, Brodie said:

GoHarness, that comment makes absolutely no sense whatsoever!

If I see no value whatsoever how does that make the market set correctly?

Surely the TAB Bookies want punters investing, and if their odds are crap there won't be any investing!!!

What is wrong with offering fair value to the punters so they can have a go?

What the hell,is wrong with allowing some people to win a sthere will be more that lose!

I thought the TAB was a gambling business, but obviously it isn't?

I am wondering why the TAB will not let GoHarness win a million dollars a year. Surely there are heaps of people losing to balance up the books. 

But what I can really not understand is why have they have not opened up Heaven Rocks at the value of $10 and $3.00 in that five horse field so I can fill my pockets.

Come on TAB let me on Heaven at $10s

Gee its hard to argue with a man running on sour grapes and not logic.

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8 hours ago, GoHarness said:

I am wondering why the TAB will not let GoHarness win a million dollars a year. Surely there are heaps of people losing to balance up the books. 

But what I can really not understand is why have they have not opened up Heaven Rocks at the value of $10 and $3.00 in that five horse field so I can fill my pockets.

Come on TAB let me on Heaven at $10s

Gee its hard to argue with a man running on sour grapes and not logic.

GoHarness, so you agree with the NZ TAB and think that if you are a good punter, you shouldn't be allowed to make money by gambling with them legally?

Do you think that they should only allow losing punters to gamble with them?

They should be encouraging punters to gamble with them, and they certainly don't by the crap odds that they currently offer!

As for the $10 for Heaven Rocks that is not worth replying to?

The TAB business plan is very flawed.

P.S. I don't always expect value, but when the odds offered are half what they should be and when you want to take the unders, you are severely limited to what you can get on, then kill the odds further after taking them it is blatantly wrong

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1 hour ago, Brodie said:

P.S. I don't always expect value, but when the odds offered are half what they should be and when you want to take the unders, you are severely limited to what you can get on, then kill the odds further after taking them it is blatantly wrong

Can you support this with some actual facts ? Perhaps you could pick out a future race and then demonstrate this happening.

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9 minutes ago, Kotare_Hunter said:

Are you relying on them reading what you post on here and then responding ?

Kotare, let us see someone from the NZ TAB coming out on Trackside or here stating that they have not got a policy of restricting winning punters, and that they don't have a maximum of 2k and 1k on fixed odds, unless you are a losing punter and we will take anything from you!

 

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17 minutes ago, Kotare_Hunter said:

Can you support this with some actual facts ? Perhaps you could pick out a future race and then demonstrate this happening.

Kotare, anyone who follows harness is aware of the pathetic odds offered on opening their market.

Example of last night, that Agincourt was at $1.50 FF win.

Had been ridiculously short every start for some unknown reason.

It galloped from mobiles 2 starts at Auckland.

Won its qualifying trial in mile rate of 2.16 when in front in 3 horse field.

Other trials had not been impressive and yet they have it at $1.50 from a stand against race winners?...

It was never going to win that race and yet $1.50?

There are examples in every race nowadays of horses miles under fair value, but that is just the way the TAB Bookies are nowadays I suppose.

They take very little risk whatsoever!!!!!

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1 minute ago, Brodie said:

Kotare, anyone who follows harness is aware of the pathetic odds offered on opening their market.

Example of last night, that Agincourt was at $1.50 FF win.

Had been ridiculously short every start for some unknown reason.

It galloped from mobiles 2 starts at Auckland.

Won its qualifying trial in mile rate of 2.16 when in front in 3 horse field.

Other trials had not been impressive and yet they have it at $1.50 from a stand against race winners?...

It was never going to win that race and yet $1.50?

There are examples in every race nowadays of horses miles under fair value, but that is just the way the TAB Bookies are nowadays I suppose.

They take very little risk whatsoever!!!!!

If they are "bookmakers" they should be able to offset winning bets against losing bets. Or winning punters against losing punters (at least to a reasonable degree) . If they are a "gambling agency" this would tend to indicate they take some kind of risk. If all they do is take bets (money) from people who are guaranteed to lose wouldn't the act of taking money from these people go by a different name?

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20 minutes ago, Sickopunter said:

If they are "bookmakers" they should be able to offset winning bets against losing bets. Or winning punters against losing punters (at least to a reasonable degree) . If they are a "gambling agency" this would tend to indicate they take some kind of risk. If all they do is take bets (money) from people who are guaranteed to lose wouldn't the act of taking money from these people go by a different name?

Dead right Sicko.

Take the Nikayla Franco example last Sunday at Mot.

How on earth is it fair that someone is allowed to net 27k from their bet of 6k at 5.50 when other punters would only be allowed to put on less than $225 to win at the 5.50??????? So in effect a 26th of what another punter is allowed to put on!!!!!!

Ethically and morally wrong from the TAB!

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26 minutes ago, Brodie said:

Kotare, anyone who follows harness is aware of the pathetic odds offered on opening their market.

Example of last night, that Agincourt was at $1.50 FF win.

Had been ridiculously short every start for some unknown reason.

It galloped from mobiles 2 starts at Auckland.

Won its qualifying trial in mile rate of 2.16 when in front in 3 horse field.

Other trials had not been impressive and yet they have it at $1.50 from a stand against race winners?...

It was never going to win that race and yet $1.50?

There are examples in every race nowadays of horses miles under fair value, but that is just the way the TAB Bookies are nowadays I suppose.

They take very little risk whatsoever!!!!!

whats your point?

in your words "it was never going to win the race" so why do you care what it was paying?

At such a low quote and given your view that it was never going to win then you must have cleaned up by backing other runners who were at good prices because a horse that was "never going to win" opened at $1.50

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39 minutes ago, Brodie said:

Kotare, anyone who follows harness is aware of the pathetic odds offered on opening their market.

Example of last night, that Agincourt was at $1.50 FF win.

Had been ridiculously short every start for some unknown reason.

It galloped from mobiles 2 starts at Auckland.

Won its qualifying trial in mile rate of 2.16 when in front in 3 horse field.

Other trials had not been impressive and yet they have it at $1.50 from a stand against race winners?...

It was never going to win that race and yet $1.50?

There are examples in every race nowadays of horses miles under fair value, but that is just the way the TAB Bookies are nowadays I suppose.

They take very little risk whatsoever!!!!!

So this but when the odds offered are half what they should be and when you want to take the unders is just a brodgeration ?

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45 minutes ago, Brodie said:

Kotare, let us see someone from the NZ TAB coming out on Trackside or here stating that they have not got a policy of restricting winning punters, and that they don't have a maximum of 2k and 1k on fixed odds, unless you are a losing punter and we will take anything from you!

 

Just write them a letter and post it and their response on here.

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Surely if it's that obvious that one horse (in this case Agincourt) is in your opinion "under the odds", then there must be remarkable value elsewhere in the market - if you're smart enough to spot it.

Clearly Flagship uberalles is better at spotting opportunity that some others!

Less whinging and more research would appear to be the answer!

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1 minute ago, Kotare_Hunter said:

So this but when the odds offered are half what they should be and when you want to take the unders is just a brodgeration ?

A Brodgeration, I like that.

Every race has horses that are half the odds what they should be.

That is a horse that should be say $2 for a place they will have at $1.40 so effectively less than half what it should be as you can not include the stake in the calculation.

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3 minutes ago, Kotare_Hunter said:

That would have you salivating !!!!!!!

Not too sure that is the word I would be using Kotare.

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24 minutes ago, Happy Sunrise said:

I came onto Racecafe and got this overwhelming sense of Deja vu.

Just can't work out why.

I will have a think about it after I pick up the pieces of the record I just dropped and broke on the floor.

If life gives you vinyl pieces ............. make clocks.

Clocks.jpg

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