RaceCafe..#1...Tipsters Thread.... Share Your Fancies For Fun...Lets See Who The Best Tipsters Here Are.
Midget

Election facts

Recommended Posts

Two out of three voters didn't want Labour.

National lost just one seat, but gained two

Bill English scored more votes than John Key did when he unseated Helen Clarke.

Jacinda Ardern showed she's devoid of political nous and is naive with her bizarre "trust us" tax policy.

T-Flav & Miriama Fox should've put the knife into Labour over the water tax policy, if they'd claimed the water for Maori they'd have held the Maori seats no trouble.

Gareth Morgan has a future because he's sensible.

Act is now irrelevant.

Winston lost his own seat, and at the next election his party will be obliterated.

National will now reach out to The Greens, James Shaw is a sensible man economically, National is a centre social reformer party and they can embrace most Green policy.

Winston thinks he's the king maker, but he won't be because that supercilious manner and smile will get wiped away when it becomes a Nat/Green coalition.

There's the expert analysis.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Agree with most, although I cant see the Greens working with National.  I think James Shaw is sensible enough to consider it and probably see its potential, however by the sounds of it 75% of there party members have to agree to make this happen which I cant see happening.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Some big calls there. Whilst I would love to have Winston's moment of glory taken from him I can't honestly see the Greens having a bar of a coalition with National.

I have a really sneaky feeling Winnie will go into a 3 headed monstrosity with the Left. He has big issues with National especially after they did the hit over his pension over payments.

If so, expect to be voting again this time next year,

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

18 minutes ago, pete said:

Some big calls there. Whilst I would love to have Winston's moment of glory taken from him I can't honestly see the Greens having a bar of a coalition with National.

I have a really sneaky feeling Winnie will go into a 3 headed monstrosity with the Left. He has big issues with National especially after they did the hit over his pension over payments.

If so, expect to be voting again this time next year,

 

Agree I find it hard to see the greens going with national. There whole campaign was based on changing the government. I think there supporters would punish them next election if they did. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, hesi said:

It will be a Labour/NZF coalition with Greens on supply and confidence, or some sort of arrangement that sees them having some sort of say on environmental issues that keeps them happy.  With specials, that possibly gives that triage 63 vs 56 seats.

Remember, Peters has a lot of baggage with National(Jenny Shipley, Jim Bolger).

He has more in common with Labour, namely

His despising of the corporate world

Reducing immigration vs local training

He has always been a champion of the less fortunate(SuperGold card), and this will mesh in well with Ardern's beliefs.

He will feel he can be more effective with Labour, vs many of the hard nosed Nats, who despise him

 

We tend to see more confidence and supply agreements these days rather than formal coalitions. 

I think if does go that way Nz First will go for confidence and supply rather than a formal coalition. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This election just confirms most vote for whats best for themselves. Just the way it is in the real world. Personally  I had thought there may have been greater empathy shown towards the working class who struggle to get by, but I suppose 46% are happy with the way things are. Depends what your job is I suppose. Cant see things improving for the working familes on the low wages if National continue to lead,although I suppose it will be what happens in overseas economies which ultimately dictates how tough it will be here if you are already on struggle street.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Guest 2Admin2
25 minutes ago, hesi said:

It will be a Labour/NZF coalition with Greens on supply and confidence, or some sort of arrangement that sees them having some sort of say on environmental issues that keeps them happy.  With specials, that possibly gives that triage 63 vs 56 seats.

Remember, Peters has a lot of baggage with National(Jenny Shipley, Jim Bolger).

He has more in common with Labour, namely

His despising of the corporate world

Reducing immigration vs local training

He has always been a champion of the less fortunate(SuperGold card), and this will mesh in well with Ardern's beliefs.

He will feel he can be more effective with Labour, vs many of the hard nosed Nats, who despise him

 

He formed a coalition with Bolger.

He has stuff all in common with Labour.  Regardless it isn't Winston who is the King Maker per se.  It is New Zealand First.  NZF's origins are conservative and right leaning.  Their genesis arose from a disaffected blue rinse brigade and their membership still largely comprises that group.  Forming a coalition with Labour and the Greens would be anathema to NZF's membership.  If Winston is genuine in his statement that he will be consulting the party then it is very unlikely he will go with the left.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, what a post said:

This election just confirms most vote for whats best for themselves. Just the way it is in the real world. Personally  I had thought there may have been greater empathy shown towards the working class who struggle to get by, but I suppose 46% are happy with the way things are. Depends what your job is I suppose. Cant see things improving for the working familes on the low wages if National continue to lead,although I suppose it will be what happens in overseas economies which ultimately dictates how tough it will be here if you are already on struggle street.

My personal view was that labour didn't offer a viable alternative to solve the social issues. 

I felt many of there plans didn't stack up or simply wouldn't fix the problem.

 

They were advocating for a nurse in every secondary school and a heap more plunket nurses. I worked it out to be roughly 3000 nurses the require while cutting immigration, so where are theses 3000 nurses coming from?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, hesi said:

It will be a Labour/NZF coalition with Greens on supply and confidence, or some sort of arrangement that sees them having some sort of say on environmental issues that keeps them happy.  With specials, that possibly gives that triage 63 vs 56 seats.

Remember, Peters has a lot of baggage with National(Jenny Shipley, Jim Bolger).

He has more in common with Labour, namely

His despising of the corporate world

Reducing immigration vs local training

He has always been a champion of the less fortunate(SuperGold card), and this will mesh in well with Ardern's beliefs.

He will feel he can be more effective with Labour, vs many of the hard nosed Nats, who despise him

 

That would be a lovely Scenario...was hoping on that last election...(everyone happy type result)

I think one of the reporters hit the nail on the head, saying he was holding the country to ransom,

old Winnie, compared it to a card game and basically referred to the fact, he holds the trump card,

and will make the decision, based on how NZ first decide (credit there) and WHEN they decide...(whats the rush, he reckons)

The old lady warned me, never trust a Maori in a suit (tongue in cheek, referring to Winnie, after last election)  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

57 minutes ago, tonkatime said:

My personal view was that labour didn't offer a viable alternative to solve the social issues. 

I felt many of there plans didn't stack up or simply wouldn't fix the problem.

 

They were advocating for a nurse in every secondary school and a heap more plunket nurses. I worked it out to be roughly 3000 nurses the require while cutting immigration, so where are theses 3000 nurses coming from?

Yes a heck of a lot of nurses locally  have been imported from overseas. I'm no expert,but  working in rest homes does not appear to be where locally trained nurses want to end up. I googled the nurse thing at the time of reading the labour idea and found in 2014 it was being predicted by health authorities that there may be a nursing shortage by 2017 as numbers trained prior to 2014 had not been enough and the call for greater numbers to be trained had been ignored in the years leading up to 2014. 

This was in part contradicted by a couple of  more recent articles written by imported overseas nurses who stated those coming from overseas could expect to work in rest homes as there was no nursing shortage in nz and rest home employers may take advantage of you. 

My take from that was National simply  did not have the foresight to see that problem coming, similar to the tradesmen shortage and its solution was simply to import foreign labour which had simply exasperated problems in other areas.Giving locally trained nurses greater incentives was not nationals answer,instead importing cheaper employees . I thought  the Labour policy of having a nurse in secondary schools  was  in part there to help with the growing youth mental health problem ,another area  National underfunded.

The maori seats is interesting.  I read earlier this year there was expected to be more Asians than maori's in nz by the end of next year. We know from the results the maori people felt let down by National,on the other side of the coin I wonder what percentage of Asians voted national.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Not election facts, but some personal election observations and ramblings, offered purely because this topical thread has already been posted on this forum by others.

1) The majority of the current political media have little idea about what really matters, don't listen to what is being spoken and are obsessed with what they personally forecast is about to or should happen.  (this is also prevalent in the sports broadcasters - do I really need the Sky rugby commentator telling me what Israel Folau should believe about same sex marriage)? The younger generation are showing themselves to be incredibly impatient and expect everything to happen in a yes or no - right now manner. They forget they are talking about the fate of 4 million plus people and our place in the world. Just evolution I guess but very frustrating if you want to listen to considered discussion.

2) The outcome - Although Bill English is promoting the narrative that they won more votes than other parties and there may be some moral obligation to be first in line, there is an equal and opposite view that the majority of NZ has said they want change. We commented on this forum weeks ago that a vote for Winston would allow him to form a moderated right or left and as long as that "power governor" is present, it does not really matter which way he goes. He won't let either side go off the rails.

3) The media is not throwing up the consideration that National with NZ First is in fact a genuine option for that change. It is a totally new dynamic to the John Key years. National has however been vicious to Winston in many ways and they will be paying a kings ransom to get him on side in my opinion, but I am hoping for this outcome. The fact that he lost his seat is a plus IMHO as he will have plenty on his plate and he can only benefit from not having an electorate to represent.

4) If National and NZ First do form a coalition and attend to the the obvious challenging social issues of housing, drugs, employment, health etc now that they are cashed up and show some intent, we would not see another Labour government for many, many years. The foundation is there which if governed with more social balance than recent years, could make it very hard for a future opponent to break through. Maybe that is just wishful thinking?

5) Times are a changin' and it is definitely time for a younger generation of politicians and leaders but the answer is not Jacinda Ardern. I disagree that she needs more time and will be a threat in 2020 as we have had a good look at the timber she is cut from and saw too many flaws. Someone will emerge from the pack and we will embrace and follow them based on respect and leadership qualities but I suspect that person was not in the last parliament. Maybe they will emerge in the next 3 years.

Cheers!

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

45 minutes ago, tonkatime said:

My personal view was that labour didn't offer a viable alternative to solve the social issues. 

I felt many of there plans didn't stack up or simply wouldn't fix the problem.

 

Neither of the two big parties promises stacked up. National are going to get 50,000 children out of poverty by April next year. Really?? So much of what was promised was just cobblers.

No matter what you say about Winston - history shows New Zealand horse racing will benefit from having him in Government. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, Uriah Heap said:

Neither of the two big parties promises stacked up. National are going to get 50,000 children out of poverty by April next year. Really?? So much of what was promised was just cobblers.

No matter what you say about Winston - history shows New Zealand horse racing will benefit from having him in Government. 

Labour are going to legislate against child poverty.Anybody know how that can be done.An unworkable law.

All parties are full of it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

49 minutes ago, Littletramp said:

Not election facts, but some personal election observations and ramblings, offered purely because this topical thread has already been posted on this forum by others.

1) The majority of the current political media have little idea about what really matters, don't listen to what is being spoken and are obsessed with what they personally forecast is about to or should happen.  (this is also prevalent in the sports broadcasters - do I really need the Sky rugby commentator telling me what Israel Folau should believe about same sex marriage)? The younger generation are showing themselves to be incredibly impatient and expect everything to happen in a yes or no - right now manner. They forget they are talking about the fate of 4 million plus people and our place in the world. Just evolution I guess but very frustrating if you want to listen to considered discussion.

2) The outcome - Although Bill English is promoting the narrative that they won more votes than other parties and there may be some moral obligation to be first in line, there is an equal and opposite view that the majority of NZ has said they want change. We commented on this forum weeks ago that a vote for Winston would allow him to form a moderated right or left and as long as that "power governor" is present, it does not really matter which way he goes. He won't let either side go off the rails.

3) The media is not throwing up the consideration that National with NZ First is in fact a genuine option for that change. It is a totally new dynamic to the John Key years. National has however been vicious to Winston in many ways and they will be paying a kings ransom to get him on side in my opinion, but I am hoping for this outcome. The fact that he lost his seat is a plus IMHO as he will have plenty on his plate and he can only benefit from not having an electorate to represent.

4) If National and NZ First do form a coalition and attend to the the obvious challenging social issues of housing, drugs, employment, health etc now that they are cashed up and show some intent, we would not see another Labour government for many, many years. The foundation is there which if governed with more social balance than recent years, could make it very hard for a future opponent to break through. Maybe that is just wishful thinking?

5) Times are a changin' and it is definitely time for a younger generation of politicians and leaders but the answer is not Jacinda Ardern. I disagree that she needs more time and will be a threat in 2020 as we have had a good look at the timber she is cut from and saw too many flaws. Someone will emerge from the pack and we will embrace and follow them based on respect and leadership qualities but I suspect that person was not in the last parliament. Maybe they will emerge in the next 3 years.

Cheers!

 

 

Some pertinent points there LT.  Some thoughts...

1. Agree in general. Labour made a big deal about re-energizing the younger voters and no doubt hoped they would propel them to victory on the back of the Jacinda appeal. Does not appear to have happened.

2. National received over 48% of party vote...a pretty strong mandate I would have thought for a third term government. Labour are now complaining they do not have " the moral mandate"....semantics driven by desperation. A cobbled Labour/ Greens/ NZF coalition represents a poor second option IMO and this is what we might get with this stupid MMP system.

3. Following on from that, it is ridiculous that a party with 7% of the vote and a leader thrown out in Northland can hold the country to ransom. Agree with Midget that NZF are in the death throes and will disappear at the next election, along with their odious leader. Both National and Labour will have to kowtow to this pompous old fart in the meantime....and neither will relish doing that.

5. Ardern did the job in that she revived Labours fortunes and made them a stronger party, hopefully still in opposition.....some naive errors affected their campaign but at the end of the day she is a smiley faced tree hugger who has never achieved anything apart from a stint with the Young Socialists Party......the general population saw through the media claptrap and voted accordingly.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, Flagship uberalles said:

Bollocks

Priceless.

Flagship, you are offering the same thoughtful insight and clarity that we saw from the young woman sitting next to and listening to Don Brash on TV 3's am show. I assume you say this with a frowned forehead and eyebrows going in all directions? Not sure I agree with everything you say here but Bravo.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, hesi said:

It will be a Labour/NZF coalition with Greens on supply and confidence, or some sort of arrangement that sees them having some sort of say on environmental issues that keeps them happy.  With specials, that possibly gives that triage 63 vs 56 seats.

Remember, Peters has a lot of baggage with National(Jenny Shipley, Jim Bolger).

He has more in common with Labour, namely

His despising of the corporate world

Reducing immigration vs local training

He has always been a champion of the less fortunate(SuperGold card), and this will mesh in well with Ardern's beliefs.

He will feel he can be more effective with Labour, vs many of the hard nosed Nats, who despise him

 

Despises the corporate world - champion of less fortunate ...

while swanning around in pinstripe suits,  frequently out for dinner and drinks, living the life of riley  etc etc etc ... 

And btw - I have no problem with him living how he wants - good on him. But don't give me this common man stuff

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, Midget said:

Two out of three voters didn't want Labour.

National lost just one seat, but gained two

Bill English scored more votes than John Key did when he unseated Helen Clarke.

Jacinda Ardern showed she's devoid of political nous and is naive with her bizarre "trust us" tax policy.

T-Flav & Miriama Fox should've put the knife into Labour over the water tax policy, if they'd claimed the water for Maori they'd have held the Maori seats no trouble.

Gareth Morgan has a future because he's sensible.

Act is now irrelevant.

Winston lost his own seat, and at the next election his party will be obliterated.

National will now reach out to The Greens, James Shaw is a sensible man economically, National is a centre social reformer party and they can embrace most Green policy.

Winston thinks he's the king maker, but he won't be because that supercilious manner and smile will get wiped away when it becomes a Nat/Green coalition.

There's the expert analysis.

Not sure about the Nats and Greens Midge....Shaw may very well be a sensible fellow but he won't make that decision...the party hierarchy will. Think there are too many differences to allow that to happen...although desperation to actually be in Government might kick in and they could achieve a lot more there than languishing on the back benches for another three years.....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Littletramp said:

Priceless.

Flagship, you are offering the same thoughtful insight and clarity that we saw from the young woman sitting next to and listening to Don Brash on TV 3's am show. I assume you say this with a frowned forehead and eyebrows going in all directions? Not sure I agree with everything you say here but Bravo.

She calls herself a social media commentator,what a joke.

IMO this will be NZF last time at the well.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

From an analyst this morning, and this is the reason why Winnie will be thinking about leaning toward National, but I still think the Nats & Greens can work together and that'll neutralise Winnie and turn him from a crowing rooster into a feather duster.

 

 

IMG_6391.PNG

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I seem to recall English was the seconder to the motion that led to the sacking of Winnie from the Bolger led Nats ?

One good thing is he would certainly be lobbying for the deputy position so " Quid Pro Quo " Paula " Quid Pro Quo " for the Pension slime bomb.

Hope she ends up in the  $11.5 b fiscal hole.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

There's an old saying Hesi. Be careful what you wish for. The word clusterf**k has been quite prevalent today and really sums up the three headed monstrosity that looks likely to be the result of Winnie The Pooh dallying with the Left.

Prediction from me if that happens will be another election within 12 months and there will be blood on the floor with a strange combination of red, black and green hues.

I almost want him to go left just to watch the carnage.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Some facts:

I voted Labour 2 ticks.

I'm in Te Tai Tonga electorate where Labour was 6500+ ahead on the Party Vote.

I cannot see the Greens working with National.....personally I think Winston will work with National or though he's annoyed about Northland.

Christchurch Central had a huge increase in enrolments, whether that helped in result I don't know.

Was saddened that Te Ururoa Flavell lost his seat.....met him earlier this year at Waitangi Celebrations and he's a hell of a nice guy, but being a nice guy dosen't always help in politics.

 

Craig.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

23 minutes ago, hesi said:

As far as the Nats/Greens, are people forgetting the Labour/Greens Memorandum of Understanding, that states

"The 2 parties will agree to work co-operatively in order to change the Government at the 2017 election"

 

That thing was dead in the water once Jacinda took over. She was very careful to say they might get the courtesy of the first call but that's as far as it goes.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, hesi said:

Just a bit of balance to keep the right wing rednecks on the straight and narrow

NZ First sources point to Labour

A number of New Zealand First insiders appear to be talking to journalists at the moment, and they are all emphasising that Peters is more likely to go with Labour. The most interesting example is MP Richard Prosser who has failed to make it back in on the party list. He makes a similar argument to Clifton, above, saying that Peters is determined to govern in a way that reflects what the party sees as a "mood for change", which National is unlikely to be able to deliver: "The difficulty is that they've had three terms, looking at a fourth, they are now quite deeply entrenched in their ways. How much of a directional shift could you ween out of them?" - see Henry Cooke's Outgoing NZ First MP Richard Prosser says Winston Peters will go left.

Prosser added: "My gut feeling says he will probably go left if he can". See also more revealing comments in Nicholas Jones' Outgoing MP criticises Winston Peters: He has always been Machiavellian.

Tracy Watkins also reports the views of a New Zealand First insider. She says: "people should not assume a deal with National just because it was the largest party on the night, says a former NZ First MP. There has been a lot of speculation about Peters ruling out any deal with the Greens, but people should not assume that either" - see: Bill and Jacinda on call waiting.

NZ First people are also talking to Politik's Richard Harman: "NZ First sources say that Leader Winston Peters remains convinced National Party politicians leaked details of his superannuation payments and orchestrated a campaign to drive him out of politics which resulted in him losing his seat. As a consequence, POLITIK understands NZ First will not take part in any Government formation negotiations involving Finance Minister and National Campaign Manager, Steven Joyce" - see: English faces uphill battle.

Similarly, Branko Marcetic reports today that "One former NZ First MP who served in the unstable coalition [of 1996] told me Peters will probably choose Labour this time around" - see: What will Winston do? The lessons of '96 tell us he might go with Ardern. According to the source "he's more likely, with a young, inexperienced leader such as Jacinda, to have greater influence there as opposed to going with his old buddies who shafted him last time around."

The same article gave further reason to suggest the party is more in tune with Labour than National: "Among the party's rank-and-file, there is a visceral dislike for and mistrust of the party of John Key and Bill English. A number of his party's policies, such as writing off student loans for graduates who remain in New Zealand a certain number of years, would be non-starters under a National government. There's also the fact that, as with previous elections, Peters has spent this year savaging the 'neoliberal experiment' of 1984, the foremost proponents of which today are National. And at this year's New Zealand First party conference, he used his speech to rail about how National's policies had left the poor and middle class behind, and proceeded to personally insult virtually every National MP in Cabinet by name."

Finally, for a lighter view of Winston Peters' kingmaker role, see my blog post ofCartoons and images about negotiating the new government.

Being a bitter and twisted old man, you might be right. "Fuck the Country.....I'll just do whatever is necessary to get Utu...."

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.