RaceCafe..#1...Tipsters Thread.... Share Your Fancies For Fun...Lets See Who The Best Tipsters Here Are.
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For the "INSIDER"

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The above comments are pretty general in fact, (not 100% accurate either) and as by someone seen from overseas, not from within. I guess your views are similar, as they too are formulated from afar. Sort of understandable really. Basically it's 50/50 race, so whatever the outcome I will be supporting the new Government as that's what we will have for the next three years. Unlike most Nats, I won't be threatening to emigrate to Australia if they lose. 

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7 minutes ago, Patiti said:

Three reasons the government will change

Health, housing and dirty water.

Be lucky to get any party votes in Otago due to the health and hospital fiasco.

I bet they get at least 1B)

The reality is any third term govt gets picked apart. Labour were the same and they didn't fix health or housing or the unemployed or violence against children etc etc either

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Really, my point is that changing a reasonably successful govt has more danger than building on an existing successful economic program. Regardless of who governs, the Racing Industry change has to come from within the Industry itself. The clean waterways can be achieved through people pressure. NZ'ers must demand it. Sat is going to be very interesting. 

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33 minutes ago, chelseacol said:

I bet they get at least 1B)

The reality is any third term govt gets picked apart. Labour were the same and they didn't fix health or housing or the unemployed or violence against children etc etc either

Yep easy to promise the world with a vision but much harder to defend a track record especially a lengthy track record and a lot of positive things get forgotten. 

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The Key/English government although seemingly to be doing well is just an illusion. They have put NZ in a very vulnerable position which will mean more high value immigration to keep property prices up which in turn will degrade basic services for most others.

Most economists predict a sharemarket and property crash originating from USA. For NZ it will be horrendous.

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38 minutes ago, slam dunk said:

The Key/English government although seemingly to be doing well is just an illusion. They have put NZ in a very vulnerable position which will mean more high value immigration to keep property prices up which in turn will degrade basic services for most others.

Most economists predict a sharemarket and property crash originating from USA. For NZ it will be horrendous.

OK I will bite...

can you explain the vulnerable position bit and how National have done that.

And then justify the most economists bit ??

 

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1 hour ago, chelseacol said:

OK I will bite...

can you explain the vulnerable position bit and how National have done that.

And then justify the most economists bit ??

 

Have a read of this.  Hilarious and true

Bob Jones NZ Herald 11 Sept 2012.pdf

 

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1 hour ago, chelseacol said:

OK I will bite...

can you explain the vulnerable position bit and how National have done that.

And then justify the most economists bit ??

 

"New Zealand housing market crash warning issued by international ratings agency Moody's".....

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11837842

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37 minutes ago, slam dunk said:

"New Zealand housing market crash warning issued by international ratings agency Moody's".....

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11837842

A hell of a lot of things have to happen before this eventuates....it is full of  provisos, "if this happens, if that happens."...

While immigration remains high, and there is fuck all Taxcinda can do about Kiwis coming home, and the housing deficit remains at 13,000 plus in Auckland, there is no hope of any major falls. 

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13 minutes ago, Ohokaman said:

A hell of a lot of things have to happen before this eventuates....it is full of  provisos, "if this happens, if that happens."...

While immigration remains high, and there is fuck all Taxcinda can do about Kiwis coming home, and the housing deficit remains at 13,000 plus in Auckland, there is no hope of any major falls. 

What has had a major effect I reckon is the changes in LVR ratios.  Now if you are borrowing for a rental/investment property you need a 40% deposit.  That has suppressed demand very very noticeably hence those Block auctioneers the other night really having to work their butts off.  Unless something disastrous happens like a massive Rangitoto eruption the Auckland housing market is not going to collapse - it is called supply and demand.

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3 hours ago, slam dunk said:

"New Zealand housing market crash warning issued by international ratings agency Moody's".....

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11837842

don't think that supports your most economists comment or connects it to National actions ...????

Comments of others etc here seem relevant

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The Reserve bank has been working very hard to try and crash proof the economy from the housing market, all banks now have to fund 80% of there lending from within NZ and the responsible lending practice is going to reduce the higher LVR / serviceability ratios as Auckland is out of control with lending up to 9 - 10 times income, this plus elections are slowing the markets. I see Tony Alexander the bnz economist has suggested  that some real estate agents should start looking for jobs

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1 hour ago, ADM said:

The Reserve bank has been working very hard to try and crash proof the economy from the housing market, all banks now have to fund 80% of there lending from within NZ and the responsible lending practice is going to reduce the higher LVR / serviceability ratios as Auckland is out of control with lending up to 9 - 10 times income, this plus elections are slowing the markets. I see Tony Alexander the bnz economist has suggested  that some real estate agents should start looking for jobs

Exactly.  Just had the exact experience buying a rental.  Being pissed off with my own bank thought I would shop around  - these new LVR ratios saying banks can only lend 60% on investment/rental properties had me scurrying back to the incumbent financiers quite quick.

That is what has cooled the housing market and as Turny said if interest rates rise.....

Course a significant rise in interest rates will create havoc in the farming sector as well with their debt levels.

This is going to be interesting Saturday.  National cannot do it without Winnie from the looks so racing may at least get a Minister with some genuine affection for the game.  Hopefully he has been schooled up on Glenda, Allen and co and can kick some butt.  Not holding my breath though.

 

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16 hours ago, slam dunk said:

The Key/English government although seemingly to be doing well is just an illusion. They have put NZ in a very vulnerable position which will mean more high value immigration to keep property prices up which in turn will degrade basic services for most others.

Most economists predict a sharemarket and property crash originating from USA. For NZ it will be horrendous.

You are a dead set plonker. Give me names of these economist that predict a pending crash in new Zealand? 

New Zealand is in the start of  building boom, we are in desperate need of skilled migrants to sustain this area of growth. Yes you can argue national has been slow to react in certain areas however to say we are in a vulnerable position is shows how much of a gullible uninformed uneducated idiot you are. We are financially much more stable than Australia and one of the very few countries in the western world growing with the books running at surplus.

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Yawn. Silly old men all twisted n torn. The election n politics is an illusion which allows the opportunity for the plebiscites to believe they have a voice which can summon change or for Tories a status quo which you believe is in your interests. Stick to the horses

 

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