RaceCafe..#1...Tipsters Thread.... Share Your Fancies For Fun...Lets See Who The Best Tipsters Here Are.
The Crucible

Baseball anyone?

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Only three weeks until the baseball play-offs begin and despite being a big Houston Astros fan, I'm really liking the Cleveland Indians to go all the way this season.

Currently paying $3.50 to win the American League and $6.50 to win the World Series.

Indians have won 17 games in a row (which is staggering) and don't look like losing anytime soon.  They have the best 1-2 starting pitching combination in Corey Kluber (AL Cy Young?) and Carlos Carrasco and have a very very good bullpen.  Batting line-up has a couple of up and coming stars and their manager is pretty handy too.

The Astros acquired a very strong pitcher in Justin Verlander and have a great batting line-up (Altuve is a superstar) but they have been inconsistent lately and look likely to concede home field advantage to the Indians.  I still hope they can win but Indians look incredibly tough.

Red Sox should win the AL East and have the outstanding Chris Sale leading their pitching roster.  Yankees look most likely to win the wildcard but I don't think they have the pitching depth.

 

In the National league the best "bet" is to lay the Dodgers - currently paying $2.00 to win the National League which is ridiculously short considering they have to win two series - that's the equivalent of around $1.40 to win each of the two series.  Three weeks ago this price was slightly less ridiculous as they looked unbeatable but they are currently in a real slump - have lost nine in a row and 14 of their last 15 games.  Their bats have cooled down and a couple of very good pitchers (Darvish and Wood) have been poor lately.  Even their superstar pitcher Clayton Kershaw got roughed up yesterday.  Add to this, they have a terrible play-off record in recent years.

so who will win the National League?  

Cubs went all the way last year and they should win their division to make the play-offs but their pitching is looking a little bit beat-up this year.

I like either the Washington Nationals or the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Washington have pretty much wrapped up the NL East and have an exciting batting line-up (Trea Turner can be a real spark) and very solid starting pitching - Strasburg back to his best and supported by Gonzalez and Roark.

but my bet right now in the NL is a little bit rougher - Diamondbacks paying $9 to win the NL.  The are unlikely to catch the Dodgers in the NL West so will be headed for a one game wild-card playoff to get into the final 4 in the NL.  They have Zac Greinke to pitch that wildcard game - almost unbeatable at home.  Their batting line-up is very strong - I reckon they have the best 3-4 combination in Paul Goldschmidt and JD Martinez - the latter hit 4 home runs in a single game earlier this week.

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3 minutes ago, Kundalini said:

TC....If the Houston Astros do not win their league we can blame Hurricane Harvey...a pretty good pitcher in his own right

Good call Brian.  During the aftermath of Harvey they had to shift one of their home series to Tampa Bay which I understand is now in the firing line of Hurricane Irma.

I've put a hedge bet on Indians (paying $3.50) - happy to switch $10 of your $20 bet to the Indians if you want to have a bob each way - just let me know.

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On 9/10/2017 at 6:25 PM, The Crucible said:

Only three weeks until the baseball play-offs begin and despite being a big Houston Astros fan, I'm really liking the Cleveland Indians to go all the way this season.

Currently paying $3.50 to win the American League and $6.50 to win the World Series.

Indians have won 17 games in a row (which is staggering) and don't look like losing anytime soon.  They have the best 1-2 starting pitching combination in Corey Kluber (AL Cy Young?) and Carlos Carrasco and have a very very good bullpen.  Batting line-up has a couple of up and coming stars and their manager is pretty handy too.

The Astros acquired a very strong pitcher in Justin Verlander and have a great batting line-up (Altuve is a superstar) but they have been inconsistent lately and look likely to concede home field advantage to the Indians.  I still hope they can win but Indians look incredibly tough.

Red Sox should win the AL East and have the outstanding Chris Sale leading their pitching roster.  Yankees look most likely to win the wildcard but I don't think they have the pitching depth.

 

In the National league the best "bet" is to lay the Dodgers - currently paying $2.00 to win the National League which is ridiculously short considering they have to win two series - that's the equivalent of around $1.40 to win each of the two series.  Three weeks ago this price was slightly less ridiculous as they looked unbeatable but they are currently in a real slump - have lost nine in a row and 14 of their last 15 games.  Their bats have cooled down and a couple of very good pitchers (Darvish and Wood) have been poor lately.  Even their superstar pitcher Clayton Kershaw got roughed up yesterday.  Add to this, they have a terrible play-off record in recent years.

so who will win the National League?  

Cubs went all the way last year and they should win their division to make the play-offs but their pitching is looking a little bit beat-up this year.

I like either the Washington Nationals or the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Washington have pretty much wrapped up the NL East and have an exciting batting line-up (Trea Turner can be a real spark) and very solid starting pitching - Strasburg back to his best and supported by Gonzalez and Roark.

but my bet right now in the NL is a little bit rougher - Diamondbacks paying $9 to win the NL.  The are unlikely to catch the Dodgers in the NL West so will be headed for a one game wild-card playoff to get into the final 4 in the NL.  They have Zac Greinke to pitch that wildcard game - almost unbeatable at home.  Their batting line-up is very strong - I reckon they have the best 3-4 combination in Paul Goldschmidt and JD Martinez - the latter hit 4 home runs in a single game earlier this week.

 

IMG_5245.PNG

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Holy cow Gruff - talk about pressure.  Am I right in thinking that the other 7 all came in and now its just the Nats or the Dbacks standing between you and $2,000 or $4,300??

I hope you took the same bet without the NL winner thrown in.   If not, might be some hedge betting coming up!?

On the positive side, the Diamondbacks won again today and their 3 runs came from two home runs to JD Martinez and one home run to Paul Goldschmidt - the 3-4 combination I highlighted.  JD Martinez has 8 home runs in his past 7 games.  Someone suggested JD must stand for "just dingers".

The Nats also won today and Strasburg pitched superbly and Trea Turner had a home run and a triple - this kid can run like the wind.  The Nats have already clinched the NL east division title which puts them in the final 4 in the NL.  They could still catch the Dodgers for best record in the NL (currently 4 games behind) which would give them home field advantage in both NL series.  However if they have the best record they would play the wildcard winner in the division series and that is likely to be the D'backs.

Dodgers lost their 10th straight and the Indians extended their winning streak to 18 games and now have the best record in the AL.

Good luck mate.

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16 minutes ago, The Crucible said:

Holy cow Gruff - talk about pressure.  Am I right in thinking that the other 7 all came in and now its just the Nats or the Dbacks standing between you and $2,000 or $4,300??

I hope you took the same bet without the NL winner thrown in.   If not, might be some hedge betting coming up!?

On the positive side, the Diamondbacks won again today and their 3 runs came from two home runs to JD Martinez and one home run to Paul Goldschmidt - the 3-4 combination I highlighted.  JD Martinez has 8 home runs in his past 7 games.  Someone suggested JD must stand for "just dingers".

The Nats also won today and Strasburg pitched superbly and Trea Turner had a home run and a triple - this kid can run like the wind.  The Nats have already clinched the NL east division title which puts them in the final 4 in the NL.  They could still catch the Dodgers for best record in the NL (currently 4 games behind) which would give them home field advantage in both NL series.  However if they have the best record they would play the wildcard winner in the division series and that is likely to be the D'backs.

Dodgers lost their 10th straight and the Indians extended their winning streak to 18 games and now have the best record in the AL.

Good luck mate.

After seeing the effort you put in to this Crucey I had to find a positive multi to test you out, unfortunately i didn't take Mikes tips for a place otherwise we are looking at 8 and 16 k results( not sure if he took that 8-8-8-8 quaddie paid 3k)shit happens and no mind if your wrong I made the money today off the shortened versions.Thanks:)

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6 minutes ago, Dockers said:

Record is 21 isn't it So getting close

Yep NY Giants had 26 game streak in 1916 but that included a tie, so 21 is record win streak.

Kluber should win tomorrow ($1.18 with TAB) which would tie the most recent streak which was the Athletics in 2002 - that was the "Moneyball" team.  Next day they have Mike Clevinger on the mound and he has pitched six scoreless innings in each of his last three starts for three wins.

Jose Ramirez under an injury cloud the only minor concern.

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Good question.  Dodgers just finished a rain delayed match against the Giants and lost again - their 11th straight loss and 16th out of their last 17.

Tomorrow they have Clayton Kershaw on the mound - easily the best pitcher in all of baseball.  Surely he can get them a win!? :)

Lots of factors in their slump - Kershaw has had a lower back injury, Alex Wood who didn't lose a game until August hasn't won since (fatigue?) and their bats have cooled down - Cody Bellinger the rookie was outstanding until this streak started but is now just good and Chris Taylor their lead-off guy has been regressing to his ordinary level.

They still have a pitching line-up that could win the NL but shouldn't be paying $2.

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Group one winner said:

Just got back from the Angels Astros game. It was a real treat watching Verlander only give up one hit thru 8 innings.

Lovely stadium even though it was only half full.

Awesome!  Only one run but sometimes those are the best games - nothing like watching a top pitcher at work.  Hopefully Verlander is the missing piece for the Astros.

A rare occurrence - Jose Altuve hitless.

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On 9/10/2017 at 6:25 PM, The Crucible said:

Indians have won 17 games in a row (which is staggering) and don't look like losing anytime soon.  

The streak keeps on keeping on - close shave today but now up to 22  (and their bullpen star Andrew Miller is now back from injury).

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Cleveland lost on Friday (US time) and ended their win streak at 22.  They have since won their next two games and clinched their division.  Kluber was outstanding again this morning.  My beloved Astros having a bit of a resurgence (Verlander making a big difference) - they wrapped up their division today and might still challenge Cleveland for best record in AL.

In the NL, the Dodgers starting to pull out of their slump - won first two games of latest series vs Washington, but Strasburg won the third for Washington this morning.

Arizona not a mathematical certainty to make wildcard game but hard to see them missing it.  Greinke outstanding again yesterday and JD and Goldschmidt continue to hit home runs.

Playoffs shaping up something like this:

AL  (assuming Cleveland end with best record)

Cleveland vs Wildcard winner (Yankees or Boston vs Twins?)

Houston vs Boston or Yankees

NL

Dodgers vs Wildcard winner (Arizona vs Colorado?)

Washington vs Cubs?

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if you multi up the TAB price on both to win their respective leagues, that suggests just under 11 to 1.   However the TAB set these markets at ridiculous margins so it should probably be closer to 15:1.

Cubs the worry - starting pitching not as dominant as last year - Quintana a good buy but Arrieta coming back from injury and Lester getting on a bit.  However still have a great batting line-up especially if Contreras gets back to the form he was in before he did his hamstring.

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9 or 10 games left in regular season and play-off picture starting to firm up.  Looks like being as follows:

AL 

Cleveland vs Wildcard winner (Yankees vs Twins)

Houston vs Boston

NL

Dodgers vs Wildcard winner (Arizona vs Colorado or Milwaukee)

Washington vs Cubs?

 

Closest races are for second wildcard spot in each lead - Milwaukee only 1 game behind Colorado and Twins with a 2.5 game lead over Texas and the Angels.

Cleveland have won 5 in a row after ending their streak (27 of last 28) and line-up appears to be back to full strength - have they peaked too soon? 

Dodgers will end with best record in NL and Cubs should hold out Milwaukee to win their division but neither team looking entirely convincing and Dodgers with a few niggly injuries. Nationals hoping to have Bryce Harper back for play-offs - will make a huge difference to their batting line-up.

 

 

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Playoff picture still looking pretty much as above.  Colorado have almost wrapped up the second wildcard in the NL.  Cubs won Central today.

yankees vs Twins confirmed as AL Wildcard game.

Only race that looks like going to the wire is for best record in the AL.  Cleveland one game ahead of Houston with both teams having 4 games left.  Cleveland have easier finish and should hold on. I also think they win the tiebreaker if needed. 

Gruff - Harper back for Nationals (big help) and JD Martinez keeps hitting long balls for the Dbacks - fingers crossed.

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Playoff picture now confirmed - didn't change in the past week.  Play-offs start Wednesday our time with the first wildcard game.  Division series start on Friday our time.  Wildcard winners proceed to division series to play teams with best record in each league (Indians and Dodgers).  Wildcard winners at a disadvantage because they will most likely have sued their best starting pitcher in the wildcard game and they won't be available again until game 3 of their division series.

Playoff baseball - can't wait!

Wild-card round

DATE GAME
All times TBD
TUESDAY, OCT. 3 Twins at Yankees, ESPN
WEDNESDAY, OCT. 4 Rockies at Diamondbacks, TBS

Division Series

DATE SERIES
THURSDAY, OCT. 5 Red Sox at Astros, Game 1, FS1 or MLBN
THURSDAY, OCT. 5 WC winner at Indians, Game 1, FS1 or MLBN
FRIDAY, OCT. 6 Red Sox at Astros, Game 2, FS1 or MLBN
FRIDAY, OCT. 6 WC winner at Indians, Game 2, FS1 or MLBN
SUNDAY, OCT. 8 Astros at Red Sox, Game 3, FS1 or MLBN
SUNDAY, OCT. 8 Indians at WC winner, Game 3, FS1 or MLBN
MONDAY, OCT. 9 Astros at Red Sox, Game 4*, FS1
MONDAY, OCT. 9 Indians at WC winner, Game 4*, FS1
WEDNESDAY, OCT. 11 Red Sox at Astros, Game 5*, FS1
WEDNESDAY, OCT. 11 WC winner at Indians, Game 5*, FS1
   
DATE SERIES
FRIDAY, OCT. 6 WC winner at Dodgers, Game 1, TBS
FRIDAY, OCT. 6 Cubs at Nationals, Game 1, TBS
SATURDAY, OCT. 7 WC winner at Dodgers, Game 2, TBS
SATURDAY, OCT. 7 Cubs at Nationals, Game 2, TBS
MONDAY, OCT. 9 Dodgers at WC winner, Game 3, TBS
MONDAY, OCT. 9 Nationals at Cubs, Game 3, TBS
TUESDAY, OCT. 10 Dodgers at WC winner, Game 4*, TBS
TUESDAY, OCT. 10 Nationals at Cubs, Game 4*, TBS
THURSDAY, OCT. 12 WC winner at Dodgers, Game 5*, TBS
THURSDAY, OCT. 12 Cubs at Nationals, Game 5*, TBS

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The Diamondbacks are no desert mirage: This has quietly been one of baseball’s best teams all season long. The middle of the order is a nightmare for opposing pitchers, featuring MVP contender Paul Goldschmidt, power-hitting third baseman Jake Lamb, and the red-hot J.D. Martinez, who has clubbed a ridiculous 29 home runs in 61 games since coming to Arizona in a deadline day deal. The rotation has been arguably the best in the league, thanks to Zack Greinke’s return to form, Robbie Ray’s breakout and the emergence of Zack Godley. And the bullpen has been incredibly dependable. Fernando Rodney will be good for at least one heart-stopping appearance this postseason, but should the D-Backs win the wild-card game, they have a tremendous relief option in the form of Archie Bradley, who could be an Andrew Miller-style weapon in the late innings. And for what it’s worth, Arizona had a winning record (11–8) against the Dodgers, who await if the Diamondbacks survive the Rockies.

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