chelseacol 2,488 Report post Posted August 18, 2017 Thankfully I haven't had a bet yet - looks like most people will be taking a bath 3 races in ! Any geniuses with winners to come ? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diver Dan 187 Report post Posted August 18, 2017 Here goes a stab - Vanilla Moon to just hold off Aotearower Bimbo and Brown Fox 1 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
chelseacol 2,488 Report post Posted August 18, 2017 7 minutes ago, Diver Dan said: Here goes a stab - Vanilla Moon to just hold off Aotearower got the lotto numbers for tomorrow mate ? Good effort Bimbo 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diver Dan 187 Report post Posted August 18, 2017 Thanks “Risk means 'shit happens' or 'good luck” Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
ivanthegreat 1,123 Report post Posted August 18, 2017 Toorpaw ......... Is that just south of Wairakei ?? La Zip 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
ivanthegreat 1,123 Report post Posted August 18, 2017 All the horses that have won have won really well showing real ability , the favorites must have originated from fake news. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bimbo 734 Report post Posted August 18, 2017 3 hours ago, ivanthegreat said: the favorites must have originated from fake news. @b_popplewell has another tremendous video...and he's in super tipping form. Mofara is up in R3 at Taupo Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peter Harrop 226 Report post Posted August 22, 2017 Believe it or not, Taupo is statistically the most punter friendly track in the country with just over 36% of all favourites winning there over the last 20 years. Winning statistics for TAB favourites. Tracks at top are punter friendly, those at bottom are punters graveyards (Stats Since Oct 97) Track Races Wins Strike Rate Ave Field Size Return Per Dollar 1. TAUPO 551 200 36.3% 9.9 $1.03 2. WAIKOUITI 162 54 33.3% 9.1 $1.01 3. BLENHEIM 343 108 31.5% 9.7 $0.94 4. KUROW 175 56 32.0% 9.8 $0.93 5. RUAKAKA 1442 446 30.9% 10.6 $0.93 6. WOODVILLE 839 259 30.9% 11.0 $0.92 7. FOXTON 573 167 29.1% 11.8 $0.92 8. TE AROHA 1469 440 30.0% 11.6 $0.92 9. WANGANUI 1717 490 28.5% 11.3 $0.90 10. GISBORNE 339 114 33.6% 9.1 $0.90 11. DARGAVILLE 327 100 30.6% 9.9 $0.90 12. AWAPUNI 3128 884 28.3% 11.2 $0.89 13. TE RAPA 3632 1006 27.7% 12.0 $0.89 14. TE AWAMUTU 1019 297 29.1% 11.0 $0.89 15. WAVERLEY 414 122 29.5% 10.5 $0.89 16. ASHBURTON 979 278 28.4% 10.9 $0.89 17. MATAMATA 1914 567 29.6% 11.2 $0.88 18. OTAKI 2302 671 29.1% 10.8 $0.88 19. ELLERSLIE 4747 1302 27.4% 11.2 $0.88 20. TAUHERINIKAU 655 204 31.1% 9.8 $0.87 Track Races Wins Strike Rate Ave Field Size Return Per Dollar 21. PUKEKOHE 1555 442 28.4% 11.4 $0.87 22. RICCARTON 4133 1184 28.6% 11.2 $0.87 23. ROTORUA 1579 437 27.7% 10.7 $0.87 24. NEW PLYMOUTH 1964 570 29.0% 10.1 $0.86 25. TRENTHAM 2406 676 28.1% 11.0 $0.86 26. WINGATUI 1780 494 27.8% 10.9 $0.86 27. FEILDING 50 14 28.0% 10.1 $0.86 28. TAURANGA 1949 542 27.8% 10.7 $0.86 29. WYNDHAM 161 49 30.4% 9.9 $0.86 30. HASTINGS 2619 774 29.6% 10.6 $0.86 31. OAMARU 750 216 28.8% 10.4 $0.85 32. RIVERTON 731 201 27.5% 10.2 $0.85 33. REEFTON 188 53 28.2% 8.9 $0.83 34. PAEROA 839 225 26.8% 10.8 $0.82 35. WASHDYKE 1122 312 27.8% 10.2 $0.81 36. INVERCARGILL 1082 287 26.5% 10.3 $0.81 37. AVONDALE 2477 672 27.1% 10.9 $0.80 38. WAIPUKURAU 292 79 27.1% 10.4 $0.80 39. TE TEKO 304 81 26.6% 10.0 $0.80 40. HAWERA 1032 274 26.6% 10.8 $0.79 Track Races Wins Strike Rate Ave Field Size Return Per Dollar 41. GORE 808 206 25.5% 10.4 $0.79 42. RANGIORA 203 53 26.1% 10.9 $0.79 43. KUMARA 198 47 23.7% 10.0 $0.78 44. WINTON 335 89 26.6% 10.0 $0.78 45. STRATFORD 249 70 28.1% 10.1 $0.78 46. WAIROA 302 84 27.8% 8.9 $0.77 47. GREYMOUTH 242 65 26.9% 9.2 $0.77 48. THAMES 232 64 27.6% 9.7 $0.77 49. WAIMATE 168 45 26.8% 10.2 $0.76 50. CROMWELL 299 70 23.4% 10.6 $0.73 51. OMAKAU 276 66 23.9% 10.1 $0.71 52. HOKITIKA 181 47 26.0% 8.6 $0.70 53. MOTUKARARA 246 59 24.0% 10.2 $0.70 54. WAIROA 26 5 19.2% 9.8 $0.55 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cubes 1,770 Report post Posted August 22, 2017 With no valid reason to do so whatsoever , Tarquin , Cubes' mate from the University of Featherston , challenges the average field size numbers quoted . However that is not what Cubity wishes to comment on , on this , the finest forum for commenting on race-stuff in NZ land The Cubemeister wishes to point out 2nd , 3rd ,4th ( Otago , Malborough , Otago (yes we know the New Zealand Provincial Act of 1876 abolished provinces)) are all South Island tracks ....!!! So why does every year the Cubinator always go large and give it a nudge at numero 53...Motukarara ???? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peter Harrop 226 Report post Posted August 22, 2017 43 minutes ago, Cubes said: So why does every year the Cubinator always go large and give it a nudge at numero 53...Motukarara ???? Actually Motukarara is in last place on the punter friendly stakes because for some reason my computer programming skills have led to 2 Wairoas on the list. But I believe the average field sizes are correct. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
chelseacol 2,488 Report post Posted August 22, 2017 13 hours ago, Cubes said: With no valid reason to do so whatsoever , Tarquin , Cubes' mate from the University of Featherston , challenges the average field size numbers quoted . However that is not what Cubity wishes to comment on , on this , the finest forum for commenting on race-stuff in NZ land The Cubemeister wishes to point out 2nd , 3rd ,4th ( Otago , Malborough , Otago (yes we know the New Zealand Provincial Act of 1876 abolished provinces)) are all South Island tracks ....!!! So why does every year the Cubinator always go large and give it a nudge at numero 53...Motukarara ???? hospitality on course ? Cubes 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midget 4,489 Report post Posted August 22, 2017 The stats are very interesting, but like most stats they're misleading, in this instance because there appears to be a strong bias toward tracks that race on decent ground in summer and spring rather than the swamps of winter. The sand based tracks rate rather well too. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
porky 900 Report post Posted August 22, 2017 Believe it or not, Taupo is statistically the most punter friendly track in the country with just over 36% of all favourites winning there over the last 20 years. Thanks for that info (PETER HARROP)... all very interesting...I,m sorry to be negative, as I,m usually a very positive chappie...BUT It proves diddly squat from a punting prospective and possibly even the opposite of what you are trying to convey. Value....is what matters, not favourites. If you have the time...could you do the same exercise on barrier draws,on a $1 a win basis , regardless of their prices... Then you will have some interesting (even marketable info) worth selling !... The Friday Flash used to have a table included for each meeting winning barrier stats over respective distances (regardless of Dividend) I miss the information ...call out and advice to NZ publications...include it...would increase your readership numbers Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peter Harrop 226 Report post Posted August 22, 2017 1 hour ago, porky said: Then you will have some interesting (even marketable info) worth selling !... But then again, if I posted that info on here, it would end up being worth next to nothing. Lol. porky and chelseacol 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
porky 900 Report post Posted August 22, 2017 Hasten to add Peter...if you are going to do the exercise, have two categories...good to dead and soft to heavy. I,m picking with the inside / outside track bias with different track conditions (results, barrier draw wise, could be skewed seasonally) On a $1 a win basis ...IMHO (may do the exercise myself next winter...by the fire on those chilly evenings) Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...