Taupo - punters graveyard

[chelseacol 2,488]

Thankfully I haven't had a bet yet - looks like most people will be taking a bath 3 races in !

 

Any geniuses with winners to come ?

[Diver Dan 187]

Here goes a stab - Vanilla Moon to just hold off Aotearower

[chelseacol 2,488]

7 minutes ago, Diver Dan said:

Here goes a stab - Vanilla Moon to just hold off Aotearower

got the lotto numbers for tomorrow mate ?

 

Good effort

[Diver Dan 187]

Thanks

“Risk means 'shit happens' or 'good luck”

[ivanthegreat 1,123]

Toorpaw  ......... Is that just south of Wairakei ??

[ivanthegreat 1,123]

All the horses that have won have won really well showing real ability , the favorites must have originated from fake news.

[Bimbo 734]

3 hours ago, ivanthegreat said:

the favorites must have originated from fake news.

@b_popplewell has another tremendous video...and he's in super tipping form. Mofara is up in R3 at Taupo

[Peter Harrop 226]

Believe it or not, Taupo is statistically the most punter friendly track in the country with just over 36% of all favourites winning there over the last 20 years.

Winning statistics for TAB favourites.

Tracks at top are punter friendly, those at bottom are punters graveyards (Stats Since Oct 97)

 

	Track	Races	Wins	Strike Rate	Ave Field Size	Return Per Dollar
1.	TAUPO	551	200	36.3%	9.9	$1.03
2.	WAIKOUITI	162	54	33.3%	9.1	$1.01
3.	BLENHEIM	343	108	31.5%	9.7	$0.94
4.	KUROW	175	56	32.0%	9.8	$0.93
5.	RUAKAKA	1442	446	30.9%	10.6	$0.93
6.	WOODVILLE	839	259	30.9%	11.0	$0.92
7.	FOXTON	573	167	29.1%	11.8	$0.92
8.	TE AROHA	1469	440	30.0%	11.6	$0.92
9.	WANGANUI	1717	490	28.5%	11.3	$0.90
10.	GISBORNE	339	114	33.6%	9.1	$0.90
11.	DARGAVILLE	327	100	30.6%	9.9	$0.90
12.	AWAPUNI	3128	884	28.3%	11.2	$0.89
13.	TE RAPA	3632	1006	27.7%	12.0	$0.89
14.	TE AWAMUTU	1019	297	29.1%	11.0	$0.89
15.	WAVERLEY	414	122	29.5%	10.5	$0.89
16.	ASHBURTON	979	278	28.4%	10.9	$0.89
17.	MATAMATA	1914	567	29.6%	11.2	$0.88
18.	OTAKI	2302	671	29.1%	10.8	$0.88
19.	ELLERSLIE	4747	1302	27.4%	11.2	$0.88
20.	TAUHERINIKAU	655	204	31.1%	9.8	$0.87

 

	Track	Races	Wins	Strike Rate	Ave Field Size	Return Per Dollar
21.	PUKEKOHE	1555	442	28.4%	11.4	$0.87
22.	RICCARTON	4133	1184	28.6%	11.2	$0.87
23.	ROTORUA	1579	437	27.7%	10.7	$0.87
24.	NEW PLYMOUTH	1964	570	29.0%	10.1	$0.86
25.	TRENTHAM	2406	676	28.1%	11.0	$0.86
26.	WINGATUI	1780	494	27.8%	10.9	$0.86
27.	FEILDING	50	14	28.0%	10.1	$0.86
28.	TAURANGA	1949	542	27.8%	10.7	$0.86
29.	WYNDHAM	161	49	30.4%	9.9	$0.86
30.	HASTINGS	2619	774	29.6%	10.6	$0.86
31.	OAMARU	750	216	28.8%	10.4	$0.85
32.	RIVERTON	731	201	27.5%	10.2	$0.85
33.	REEFTON	188	53	28.2%	8.9	$0.83
34.	PAEROA	839	225	26.8%	10.8	$0.82
35.	WASHDYKE	1122	312	27.8%	10.2	$0.81
36.	INVERCARGILL	1082	287	26.5%	10.3	$0.81
37.	AVONDALE	2477	672	27.1%	10.9	$0.80
38.	WAIPUKURAU	292	79	27.1%	10.4	$0.80
39.	TE TEKO	304	81	26.6%	10.0	$0.80
40.	HAWERA	1032	274	26.6%	10.8	$0.79

 

	Track	Races	Wins	Strike Rate	Ave Field Size	Return Per Dollar
41.	GORE	808	206	25.5%	10.4	$0.79
42.	RANGIORA	203	53	26.1%	10.9	$0.79
43.	KUMARA	198	47	23.7%	10.0	$0.78
44.	WINTON	335	89	26.6%	10.0	$0.78
45.	STRATFORD	249	70	28.1%	10.1	$0.78
46.	WAIROA	302	84	27.8%	8.9	$0.77
47.	GREYMOUTH	242	65	26.9%	9.2	$0.77
48.	THAMES	232	64	27.6%	9.7	$0.77
49.	WAIMATE	168	45	26.8%	10.2	$0.76
50.	CROMWELL	299	70	23.4%	10.6	$0.73
51.	OMAKAU	276	66	23.9%	10.1	$0.71
52.	HOKITIKA	181	47	26.0%	8.6	$0.70
53.	MOTUKARARA	246	59	24.0%	10.2	$0.70
54.	WAIROA	26	5	19.2%	9.8	$0.55

[Cubes 1,770]

With no valid reason to do so whatsoever , Tarquin , Cubes' mate from the University of Featherston , challenges the average field size numbers quoted .

However that is not what Cubity wishes to comment on , on this , the finest forum for commenting on race-stuff in NZ land

The Cubemeister wishes to point out 2nd , 3rd ,4th ( Otago , Malborough , Otago (yes we know the New Zealand Provincial Act of 1876 abolished provinces)) are all South Island tracks ....!!!

So why does every year the Cubinator always go large and give it a nudge at numero 53...Motukarara ????

 

[Peter Harrop 226]

43 minutes ago, Cubes said:

 

So why does every year the Cubinator always go large and give it a nudge at numero 53...Motukarara ????

 

Actually Motukarara is in last place on the punter friendly stakes because for some reason my computer programming skills have led to 2 Wairoas on the list. But I believe the average field sizes are correct.

[chelseacol 2,488]

13 hours ago, Cubes said:

With no valid reason to do so whatsoever , Tarquin , Cubes' mate from the University of Featherston , challenges the average field size numbers quoted .

However that is not what Cubity wishes to comment on , on this , the finest forum for commenting on race-stuff in NZ land

The Cubemeister wishes to point out 2nd , 3rd ,4th ( Otago , Malborough , Otago (yes we know the New Zealand Provincial Act of 1876 abolished provinces)) are all South Island tracks ....!!!

So why does every year the Cubinator always go large and give it a nudge at numero 53...Motukarara ????

 

hospitality on course ?

[Midget 4,489]

The stats are very interesting, but like most stats they're misleading, in this instance because there appears to be a strong bias toward tracks that race on decent ground in summer and spring rather than the swamps of winter.

The sand based tracks rate rather well too.

[porky 900]

Believe it or not, Taupo is statistically the most punter friendly track in the country with just over 36% of all favourites winning there over the last 20 years.

Thanks for that info (PETER HARROP)... all very interesting...I,m sorry to be negative, as I,m usually a very positive chappie...BUT

It proves diddly squat from a punting prospective and possibly even the opposite of what you are trying to convey.

Value....is what matters, not favourites.

If you have the time...could you do the same exercise on barrier draws,on a $1 a win basis , regardless of their prices...

Then you will have some interesting (even marketable info) worth selling !...

The Friday Flash used to have a table included for each meeting winning barrier stats over respective distances (regardless of Dividend)

I miss the information ...call out and advice to NZ publications...include it...would increase your readership numbers

[Peter Harrop 226]

1 hour ago, porky said:

Then you will have some interesting (even marketable info) worth selling !...

But then again, if I posted that info on here, it would end up being worth next to nothing. Lol.

[porky 900]

Hasten to add Peter...if you are going to do the exercise, have two categories...good to dead and soft to heavy.

I,m picking with the inside / outside track bias with different track conditions (results, barrier draw wise, could be skewed seasonally)

On a $1 a win basis ...IMHO (may do the exercise myself next winter...by the fire on those chilly evenings)