RaceCafe..#1...Tipsters Thread.... Share Your Fancies For Fun...Lets See Who The Best Tipsters Here Are.
Bruce M

Help settle an argument...how much money disappears from our pockets?

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Having a discussion at work about how much money leaves a racecourse compared to the amount which arrives.

Assume $10,000 arrives at a NZ racecourse with oncourse only betting and no new money is added throughout the day.

Then assume that in Race 1 all of the $10,000 in placed on win bets on the tote.

Then assume all the returned dividends are invested on win bets in  the next race and so on....

How much money leaves the course after TEN races?

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Guest 2Admin2

How much did the TAB lose on the Hurricanes Lions draw?  Head to head both sides of the ledger got half of their FOB bet back.

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12 minutes ago, SMD is rife said:

about $2087 by my calcs, based on a take out rate of 14.5%

Nice work SMD.   Shame Don is not on here any more - could have had a bit of fun with his maths skills and understanding of odds, dividends, the tote, etc......

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C'mon team, this is not maths, it's simple bloody arithmetic.

$10,000 x 0.85 = $8500

$8500 x 0.85 = $6800

do that ten times and you get just under $2000, say $1968, so you've left about 81% behind to feed the fat bastards and pay for the $45000 worth of tables the NZRB bought at the Lions' games.

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7 hours ago, Midget said:

C'mon team, this is not maths, it's simple bloody arithmetic.

$10,000 x 0.85 = $8500

$8500 x 0.85 = $6800

do that ten times and you get just under $2000, say $1968, so you've left about 81% behind to feed the fat bastards and pay for the $45000 worth of tables the NZRB bought at the Lions' games.

Yep and they even invented formulas and functions on calculators/spreadsheets so you don't have to manually repeat the process ten times:   $10,000 x (0.855)^10

Also shows the folly of all-up or multi betting.  Tried to explain this to Don once - the lights were on and the barriers were down but the train wasn't coming!

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10 hours ago, SMD is rife said:

Incorrect, they got half their expected return.

Both sides of the ledger won half their expected return.  So if you bet $10 @ $8 FOB on the Hurricanes then your return was $40.  If you bet on the Lions $10 at $1.50 then your return was $7.50.  So the TAB got a total of $20 in bets and returned $47.50.  Isn't that a loss of $27.50?  Of course it is balanced somewhat by the volume of money on the Lions whose backers lose money at any price below $2.  We have to assume that the TAB got the odds correct.

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3 minutes ago, 2Admin2 said:

Both sides of the ledger won half their expected return.  So if you bet $10 @ $8 FOB on the Hurricanes then your return was $40.  If you bet on the Lions $10 at $1.50 then your return was $7.50.  So the TAB got a total of $20 in bets and returned $47.50.  Isn't that a loss of $27.50?

Dear oh dear, when has there ever been a two horse market where one is paying $8 and one $1.50. That's a market percentage of 78%. 

I will leave it to Nimue to honour you with the Frampton Award :)

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19 minutes ago, SMD is rife said:

Dear oh dear, when has there ever been a two horse market where one is paying $8 and one $1.50. That's a market percentage of 78%. 

I will leave it to Nimue to honour you with the Frampton Award :)

In the live head to head betting on the Hurricanes/Lions game at times there were.  Are you saying that the TAB never make a loss on their FOB?

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Just now, 2Admin2 said:

In the live head to head betting on the Hurricanes/Lions game at times there were.  Are you saying that the TAB never make a loss on their FOB?

I see what you are getting at. I didn't look at the odds on the game but it sounds like the Lions started at $1.50 with the Hurricans probably around $2.50, then late in the game when the Lions had a decent lead the Canes got out to $8 in live betting. The big money would still have gone on the Lions thought with people sensing a small profit. You are assuming the same amount was invested on each side, which was obviously not the case.

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Guest 2Admin2
8 minutes ago, We're Doomed said:

I see what you are getting at. I didn't look at the odds on the game but it sounds like the Lions started at $1.50 with the Hurricans probably around $2.50, then late in the game when the Lions had a decent lead the Canes got out to $8 in live betting. The big money would still have gone on the Lions thought with people sensing a small profit. You are assuming the same amount was invested on each side, which was obviously not the case.

Correct.  Also the TAB often tell us they got it wrong with FOB - "that was a bad result for the TAB".....etc.

With Fixed Odds Betting it is possible that the $10,000 at the start of this thread $11,000 could walk off the course.  Hence the folly in killing the golden goose the totalisator!

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53 minutes ago, 2Admin2 said:

In the live head to head betting on the Hurricanes/Lions game at times there were.  Are you saying that the TAB never make a loss on their FOB?

Were the Lions paying $1.50 at the same time the Hurricanes were paying $8?

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Guest 2Admin2
23 minutes ago, SMD is rife said:

Were the Lions paying $1.50 at the same time the Hurricanes were paying $8?

I don't know but even if they were paying $1.05 there is still a loss.

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Guest 2Admin2
4 minutes ago, Leggy said:

How do you figure that?

The assumption is that they didn't get 8 times the total bet on the Hurricanes on the Lions.  Which granted could be a wrong assumption.  The point is the TAB do make losses on some of their books.

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Well, of course that is true if their book is not balanced but if it is, then at those odds, they have 120% market and should win regardless of which team wins or a draw. No bookies get it right all the time but on average, setting those kind of markets as they do, they must come out ahead. The issue for the TAB on sports betting is their regular complete stuff ups in a range of markets that is no doubt costing them heaps.

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20 hours ago, Bruce M said:

Having a discussion at work about how much money leaves a racecourse compared to the amount which arrives.

Assume $10,000 arrives at a NZ racecourse with oncourse only betting and no new money is added throughout the day.

Then assume that in Race 1 all of the $10,000 in placed on win bets on the tote.

Then assume all the returned dividends are invested on win bets in  the next race and so on....

How much money leaves the course after TEN races?

Only being a smart arse here Bruce... But the way the question is posed above...

I would say NONE ! ...who backs 10 winners in a day? no-one !

If you are backing multiple runners per race and wagering based on divs then maybe someone...(less 14.5% takeout)?...Maybe...( no mathmatician)

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