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skelly

Northern Dancer

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I like data and pointless statistics, so decided to do a 'data churn' and arbitrarily look at the prevalence of Northern Dancer in NZ racing.

Using about 10 years of recent data, it came up with the following table. Nothing earth-shattering but was amused to see two 2yos running around with nine duplications - both fairly useful types in Gift of Power (winner of three) and Satin Belt (never out of the money). 

While the numbers tend to suggest that more than three duplications is overkill, those with a higher amount of duplications are more likely to be younger and thus had less chance to win a race. But in summary, at least two occurences of Northern Dancer = Good.

Duplications Won a race Yet to win Win %
0 808 1116 42.0%
1 3324 3682 47.4%
2 3736 3534 51.4%
3 2415 2176 52.6%
4 1061 1049 50.3%
5 366 368 49.9%
6 96 118 44.9%
7 24 37 39.3%
8 6 3 66.7%
9 1 1 50.0%
Total 11837 12084 49.5%

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16 hours ago, Patiti said:

Is Mr Prospector a factor or would they all have a cross to him x ?

If I've set up my query correctly, about 48% of those with Northern Dancer in them also have Mr Prospector, so the potency of the cross has diluted a bit over time.

The win ratio for a horse with both Northern Dancer and Mr Prospector was 49.8%

Various breakdowns with win ratio
==============================
Both horses occurring in the sire, but only one of them in the dam: 49.8%
Both horses occurring in the dam, but only one of them in the sire:  50.7%
Both horses occurring in both the sire and dam: 46.1%

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3 hours ago, Mattski said:

Are you able to easily break down by stakes winners to winners also thanks?

Makes for interesting reading...

Duplications Won a race Yet to win Win % SW SW-W%
0 808 1116 42.00% 35 4%
1 3324 3682 47.40% 184 6%
2 3736 3534 51.40% 261 7%
3 2415 2176 52.60% 207 9%
4 1061 1049 50.30% 95 9%
5 366 368 49.90% 36 10%
6 96 118 44.90% 8 8%
7 24 37 39.30% 6 25%
8 6 3 66.70% 1 17%
9 1 1 50.00% 1 100%
Total 11837 12084 49.50% 834 7.05%

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An example on merely duplications is very coarse.

A breakdown analysis of where the duplication occurs would tell more of a story.

- Eg Sireline of stallion over sireline of mare. 

-Eg 3X3, 4x4x4 etc

Northern Dancer has got that far back that it is more about what type of son of Northern Dancer is duplicated.

So many of his sons are different on type. Sadlers Wells line is very different to Danehill line and hence they combine well. 

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