2017 Jumps Season

[The Crucible 632]

Haha resorting to name calling again Ted - nice work.

You may send your selections out to certain people before the races, but there is one serious flaw in your logic, which for various reasons you can't see.

So let me help you with it.  One has to assume that every selection you send out to these people is a winner because you only tell us about your winners on here (after the event). You're like those tipping lines that tell you about their winners but never seem to mention the losers.  Can you not see that you just look silly coming on here posting your winners after the event?  Hopefully this has helped you.

Blind Squirrel is posting his tips before the races.  Cat is posting his and even telling us about his staking plan and tracking his performance.  There's no ego in that.

 

[rdytdy 5,343]

And you can't see the forest for the trees TC, this is Catalano's thread where he is doing his own jumping selections and it is not for me to try and influence him in anyway.

I responded to two others in the thread, the first in respect to Mardy who was talking about Just Got Home having to carry big weights in hurdle races by making the point that as soon as he switches to the bigger fences he will come in nicely at the weights. This point was illustrated yesterday when Just Ishi made his steeplechase debut and had a nice 6kg pull in the weights over the hot favourite The Big Opal.. Another example off the top of my head was Mynamesbond at the end of last season, a six win hurdler lining up first start in a maiden steeple at set weights and then claiming a further 2.5kg allowance and winning by seven lengths. I know of at least two other very good hurdlers who will carry big weights over the hurdles who will have a crack at the bigger fences later this season with nice weight relief.

The other response  was to Blind Squirrel saying that he had sussed the three jumps races out well and just as a comparison gave him my exact take on the three jumping races in question as well.

No need for any other to comment but being lowlife you are, you just can't help yourself by responding in the negative.

 

        

  

[Catalano 951]

Guys, can we not do this on this thread. I'd like this to remain a positive discussion on the jumping season.

Much appreciated.

[The Crucible 632]

13 minutes ago, Catalano said:

Guys, can we not do this on this thread. I'd like this to remain a positive discussion on the jumping season.

Much appreciated.

Sure thing Cat.  Love that you're posting your tips before the event and tracking your performance.  Makes for interesting reading.

[Blind Squirrel 315]

As I said I think this thread is more of what is needed on the site - love to hear people like Cat putting their balls on the line and actually stating what and why they are punting certain horses - go the jumpers!

 

[Catalano 951]

Our cup runneth over tomorrow with four jumps races at Te Rapa and a couple from Riverton on Sunday. 

Just to be clear, jumps are the only thing I'm betting on, so I'm finding the action a bit sparse at the moment!

Race 2 - It's hard to go past Perry Mason after a strong second last time out, and this field is no stronger. A bit of respect around I'm All Yours and Ours - I'm sure Ours hit a hurdle or landed awkwardly at about the 500m last time out - he faded very quickly. If right, he could certainly give them a shake.

Race 3 - Sea King will appreciate a stronger pace, and Ready Eddie is in the same form that won this race last year, but I can't go past Ngatira Gold who finished very strongly to get within a length of a rampaging Danza Lad last start.

Race 5 - West End was third in a much stronger field last start, he doesn't win often, but should be much too strong for these. Mendoza, who was about 15 lengths away last time, is the obvious danger.

Race 6 - I'm going for Fair Script to repeat on similar track conditions. He meets Palemo 3.5kg better off for beating him last time, and should finish in front of him again. The worry is The Big Opal, but his jumping wasn't as clean as it will need to be last time out - so I'll stick to the script.

The bet is $49.00 a win.

 

Anyone got any thoughts on Saturday's jumping action?

 

[The Crucible 632]

23 hours ago, Catalano said:

Anyone got any thoughts on Saturday's jumping action?

Ooee my bet of the day - got to love a horse whose name contains only vowels.  Very impressive jumping display last time and won easily on this day last year.

[Catalano 951]

On to Riverton and hopefully a collect.

I'm annoyed with myself after yesterdays results, I had a busy Saturday morning planned so had done the Te Rapa form for an improving track in the Dead 4-5 range.

Oh well, lesson learned... again.

Today, Race 1 - Delacroix isn't going to be beaten by anything that's finished behind him at his last two starts. That leaves Wiggle, but I don't think he will appreciate the deep track. So On the nose of Delacroix.

Race 2 - Myers isn't going down there to see the autumn colours, and Crash Bandicoot will be very hard to beat.

 

[LastOf40 547]

On 19/05/2017 at 0:24 PM, Catalano said:

Race 3 - Sea King will appreciate a stronger pace, and Ready Eddie is in the same form that won this race last year, but I can't go past Ngatira Gold who finished very strongly to get within a length of a rampaging Danza Lad last start.

Race 5 - West End was third in a much stronger field last start, he doesn't win often, but should be much too strong for these. Mendoza, who was about 15 lengths away last time, is the obvious danger.

Race 6 - I'm going for Fair Script to repeat on similar track conditions. He meets Palemo 3.5kg better off for beating him last time, and should finish in front of him again. The worry is The Big Opal, but his jumping wasn't as clean as it will need to be last time out - so I'll stick to the script.

Anyone got any thoughts on Saturday's jumping action?

 

You have been pretty accurate up to now and must as been as disappointed as I with a couple of the above horses yesterday.

I don't know what to make of Sea King, he doesn't seem to be the same horse as last year. I thought if EVER Mendoza was going to win it had to be yesterday. But then again I can recall thinking that about Fair Script last year and what happens last week ???

Palemo was another I thought would be in quinella at least. I won't be following him when it gets wetter and the distances further.

[rdytdy 5,343]

Sea King wanted to hang throughout giving the rider a problem and as result pulled out of the race.

The winner of the Waikato Steeplechase, The Big Opal, as the dividend suggests, looked a good thing. He was beaten by a good one at Hastings when carrying 71kgs conceding Just Ishi  6kgs, beaten a half length with Mr Mor a distant third. He dropped 4.5kgs for yesterday's race. The form from that race was franked with The Big Opal winning and Mr Mor finishing second. Shaun Fannin who rode both The Big Opal and Palemo into second at their last starts chose The Big Opal which was also telling. 

Of note, the third horse Fair Script who beat Palemo last time when carrying 65kgs stayed at the same weight whereas Palemo went from 66.5kgs up to 70kgs yesterday and with Fair Script easily beating Palemo yesterday.

 

    

 

 

  

[Catalano 951]

15 minutes ago, rdytdy said:

The Big Opal, as the dividend suggests, looked a good thing

Yes agreed, I just got too 'cute' with my reasoning, and particularly with what I thought was going to be a Dead 4 track, and the lure of a bigger dividend, I ended up on Fair Script.

Only a week ago I'd told myself that The Big Opal should be backed where ever he goes.

 

39 minutes ago, LastOf40 said:

I thought if EVER Mendoza was going to win it had to be yesterday

Agreed, he won't get an easier one than that!

[Catalano 951]

Summing up yesterdays action, I thought the only thing that would beat Delacroix would be bad luck, and I was right.

I'm no jockey, in fact I'm closer to two jockeys, but if you're on the hot favourite, why wouldn't you be a little wide of the field rather than right up the behinds of the bunch? If something fell, he was no chance of avoiding it.

In the steeple, didn't Tai Ho give a good sight! Crash Bandicoot was too good and will only get better, but Tai Ho should pick up one or two this season. High Forty was a nice run, and he'll improve quickly with that.

So hopefully, I've broken that losing streak, looking back, the only change I would make would be to back The Big Opal on Saturday.

7 wins from 17 bets - 41%, average dividend $2.51

[Catalano 951]

31 minutes ago, Catalano said:

If something fell, he was no chance of avoiding it.

I should add - hope Hamish McNeill is OK! It actually looked quite nasty.

[Blind Squirrel 315]

For the future Cat - I really liked the run of Noah Jon on Saturday and the start before - he had a long break away from racing (injury I presume) and has always looked a bit of a gunna over hurdles to my eye. Chasing is his go but those last two hurdle runs were full of merit as he stuck on extremely well. As soon as he goes over the big sticks I will be on!

 

[Catalano 951]

50 minutes ago, Blind Squirrel said:

I really liked the run of Noah Jon on Saturday

Thanks BS, I just had a another look at the replay, he was grinding home well, and I see his form over the bigger fences isn't too bad - I'll keep an eye out!

 

[Treat 63]

Some awesome jumping action, even got my anti horses "mobile dog tuckers" he calls them, other half, watching jumps now!! Just gutted I lost my faith and didn't include "The names bond" There's going to be some awesome races through the season. Pitty ZedEm and Lucky Tonight aren't here too!

[Blind Squirrel 315]

Hope you're punting the jumps at Hawera today Cat - my thoughts for what they are worth (not much I might add).

Race 1 - Well here is the true test as Noah Jon goes over the steeple fences - they aren't that big at HAwera but still a good test against a very nice line-up. Just Ishi & Highly Likely the toughest to beat and I do have a sneaky regard for Carlaw but will stick with big Noah!

Race 2 - A real lottery but did think Cullister went well in a better field last time

Race 3 - Thatz David will give a sight and could lead all teh way but I also have My Magician in for a sneaky place chance

Good luck and good punting!

[Catalano 951]

17 minutes ago, Blind Squirrel said:

Hope you're punting the jumps at Hawera today Cat

I almost forgot!

Race 1 - I have it between Noah John and Just Ishi, but I have to go Just Ishi given he beat The Big Opal, and what that horse did to them at Waikato.

Race 2 - A bit of a lottery, but I agree that Cullister can do it. Lost the rider in this race last year when travelling in 4th spot on the bend, and a good third last time out.

Race 3 - I see the stipes reported a slow recovery rate for Thatz David last time out, so I won't risk him. I've gone for Justa Charlie to improve on his last start in the deeper conditions.

$43 to win

Currently sitting on about a $10 loss now for the season so far.

Good luck!

[Blind Squirrel 315]

Not sure what to make of the first - hard luck with Just Ishi as travelling well at the time it fell. Looks very very heavy as they seemd to all stop with 800 metres to run and could hardly pick their feet up.

[Treat 63]

Pretty cool !! ZedEm's little brother Guy Fox and Sarah McNabb, first jumps first win!

[rdytdy 5,343]

What a little cracker that Guy Fox was.

Having his first jump start with Sarah MacNab having her first jumps ride. Well done to both, they won well. Backed in to $3.60 ($6.00FF this morning) They got some.

R3    GUY FOX   $6.00FF

 

Going outside the square here with the youngest rider and horse in this hurdle race as they both make their debuts over hurdles also. This fellow has been going ok on the flat with a five length win two starts ago and following that up with a strong closing third last start. Horse and rider have combined together at their last seven starts and both will have done plenty of schooling together also being attached to the Myer’s stable. The 3kg claim will also assist. For multiples Justa Charlie, Red Mafia and Yipson.

   

[Catalano 951]

This is quickly turning into a thread that should be labelled 'let's see how much Cat can lose on the jumps in 2017'!

Just Ishi fell when travelling ok, but Wise Men Say, who is a favourite of mine, was far too good. I thought he would be a horse that would take a few runs to get to winning form.

Cullister momentarily looked a threat just before the turn, but battled from there.Upper Cut won well, and he'll be a big threat over the bigger fences, and Max was very tough late in the race.

Guy Fox, well, a horse having his first ever hurdles run, against some very handy types, with a jockey having her first race, just raises all sorts of red flags. But as I'm quickly learning, don't underestimate the Myers magic.

I should add, I'm no expert on jumps racing and have no stable connections to jumps trainers - I just thought it would be fun to try for a season, and despite my poor results to date (which I know I'll turn around!), I'm actually enjoying the action! 

I'm sure that once we have a bit more exposed form, the winners will flow.

Win - 35%, P/L - loss of $139.30 on turnover of $899

 

 

[rdytdy 5,343]

Early days yet Catalano, the last jumps day of the season being at Te Aroha on October 1st. You should try and get along as it is going to be a big day (more to come on that).

I enjoy the jumping races also so following your thread with interest.

With regard to Guy Fox,  the fact that Dummy Myers was prepared to line him up against winners for his first hurdle race rather than against maiden hurdlers and also putting Sarah MacNab on for her first hurdle ride was a green light signal that the horse could jump well. Sarah herself would have had  thorough education and experience into schooling and she knew the horse well after being associated with him in his last seven starts including an easy win on the flat two starts ago. The 3kg claim was also a big help and she gave the horse a lovely ride giving him a good sight at the fences. He's only a wee fellow isn't he.

Vey unlucky with Just Ishi, he was travelling very well when Gary Walsh was dislodged.

Good luck for the rest of the season.

   

[Catalano 951]

45 minutes ago, rdytdy said:

Te Aroha on October 1st. You should try and get along as it is going to be a big day

I'll pencil that one in Ted. I haven't missed a Great Northern for decades, but I've never been to the Te Aroha track.

Maybe I should run a competition - pick my final balance for the season at the close of the Te Aroha meeting. 

With regards to Guy Fox, the betting told me all I needed to know, but I'd already placed my bet (the missus wanted to go for a walk at Bethells), so I missed that signal - but if I'm honest, I still wouldn't have backed him. A great result for all concerned though, and a lot more to come you would think.

[rdytdy 5,343]

We are looking at making it a big final day for the jumping season and putting the final pieces together.

On October 1st It will be a jumps rider's and amateur rider's day only with a number of jumps races, highweights and an amateur rider's race and a competition for the jumping  jockeys based on a points system on jumping races at TRAC venues (7 meetings) with a BBQ and refreshments put on after the last where the prize giving will be held. More info when all finalized in the next week or so.