RaceCafe..#1...Tipsters Thread.... Share Your Fancies For Fun...Lets See Who The Best Tipsters Here Are.
badger

Whats Happening

Recommended Posts

Rangiora races

Allstars cannot win a race I watched he races and would have to say I was disappointed people in the stand were also disappointed and quite a few were very vocal. I have since read the Stipes report .

Boults on fire raced in flip flops Christ there is no way you would line a horse up,  with those on a grass track, the horse cannot get traction. Myidealson will be no longer persevered with in this stable ok fair enough.mind you went out favourite then they don't want him not real good for the punters, Benicio transferred to Leonee Jones two days before the races, Augusta beaten by a average c1 horse. It wasn't that long ago that Benicio and Augusta were touted as in their top 4 as derby hopes.

My concern is that according to the Stipes report some of these decisions are being made by John Cox is he now the top man he is a good trainer and driver in his own right, but nowhere up with Mark or Nat. I would be annoyed if I was an owner expected to pay large training fees with a trainer 7 rungs down the ladder making the decisions.

If you are going to beat Allstars wait until Mark and Nat are away and a grass track and you have a very real show

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, badger said:

Rangiora races

Allstars cannot win a race I watched he races and would have to say I was disappointed people in the stand were also disappointed and quite a few were very vocal. I have since read the Stipes report .

Boults on fire raced in flip flops Christ there is no way you would line a horse up,  with those on a grass track, the horse cannot get traction. Myidealson will be no longer persevered with in this stable ok fair enough.mind you went out favourite then they don't want him not real good for the punters, Benicio transferred to Leonee Jones two days before the races, Augusta beaten by a average c1 horse. It wasn't that long ago that Benicio and Augusta were touted as in their top 4 as derby hopes.

My concern is that according to the Stipes report some of these decisions are being made by John Cox is he now the top man he is a good trainer and driver in his own right, but nowhere up with Mark or Nat. I would be annoyed if I was an owner expected to pay large training fees with a trainer 7 rungs down the ladder making the decisions.

If you are going to beat Allstars wait until Mark and Nat are away and a grass track and you have a very real show

 

In my opinion Johnny is one of the most talented drivers in the country. But it is interesting how far below expectation those horses have performed with Mark and Nat not around.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Purdon runners on grass are always dodgy propositions. Good things to bet against or simply avoid.

13 hours ago, badger said:

I was disappointed people in the stand were also disappointed and quite a few were very vocal.

Vocal? what were the quite a few saying?

 

13 hours ago, badger said:

mind you went out favourite then they don't want him not real good for the punters

 Yeah but they have already proven they are not top line horses. Favourites based mainly on the fact they are Purdon runners.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yep I also think they were at false money.Just the Purdon factor makes punters assume they should win.If Mark thought they were as good as some of the public thought I don't think they  would be racing at these meetings.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

15 minutes ago, richie said:

Yep I also think they were at false money.Just the Purdon factor makes punters assume they should win.If Mark thought they were as good as some of the public thought I don't think they  would be racing at these meetings.

Boults on fire, Stars align, Myideal son and Benicio were all justified favourites based ion previous form.All raced below previous form. Not sure why you could not see why they were favourites. Clearly their below average performances have not come at an ideal time for them given the rumours, but   the below average performances may just be coincidence and things will no doubt soon be back to normal.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, what a post said:

 

Boults on fire, Stars align, Myideal son and Benicio were all justified favourites based ion previous form.All raced below previous form. Not sure why you could not see why they were favourites. Clearly their below average performances have not come at an ideal time for them given the rumours, but   the below average performances may just be coincidence and things will no doubt soon be back to normal.

Didn't say they weren't justified favourites just the short odds were false.They are only below average horses compared to the rest of the Purdon team,and if trained by anyone else may have still been favourites but not as short as they were.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

50 minutes ago, richie said:

Didn't say they weren't justified favourites just the short odds were false.They are only below average horses compared to the rest of the Purdon team,and if trained by anyone else may have still been favourites but not as short as they were.

The main factor in horses odds is comparing previous form. Saying they are below average horses by all star standards is a total red herring and  of no relevance when assessing the likely winner.and dividends thereof.  For example elmers image paid $2.80 to win. He was not a short priced favourite because of the stable he came from. What relevance was it when assessing this horses chances that most of the horses trained by his trainer pay huge dividends.None whatsoever .                      The point is they did not run up to previous form for whatever reason. It happens all the time, just not normally with the all stars team. Blaming it on below average horses is just stupid and is not the reason. For example the boults on fire wrong shoes is releveant,why had myideal son been hanging at addington?,the other reason already mentioned,etc

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It's definitely changed since Mark and Natalie have been away.

Even ignoring the small prices, which you can argue were or were not justified based on those horses past performances (Benicio smashed a C2-C3 field on Show Day just three starts ago; now it can't run a place off a dream trip?), it is simply too conspicuous that Purdons haven't won a race in the South Island since 4 December. Yes their best horses have obviously been up north, but those that have raced here have all been perfectly capable of winning their races. 

It seems the usual cull will happen now with Benicio gone, Myidealson gone, Boults on Fire should probably be gathering his things together, Augusta probably not far away. This happens every year with the lesser-lights but I do find the Benicio and Augusta reversals in ability the most interesting. Would be interested in people's thoughts.

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The last time Natalie took a team to the races in the South Island (4 December at Methven), Purdon/Rasmussen won three, including Augusta (who narrowly beat Myidealson). 

When you factor in the Interdoms, Mark has been away for a long time. And if I recall correctly, Duane Marfisi also left NZ, didn't he? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Eastwood Jaunty said:

The last time Natalie took a team to the races in the South Island (4 December at Methven), Purdon/Rasmussen won three, including Augusta (who narrowly beat Myidealson). 

 

True.

Methven, October 16, saw Boults on Fire, All Star Magician and Flash Boy get beaten with Natalie and Mark present.

They simply don't have a mortgage on grass racing like they do all weather.

Maybe grass, is like rain in rugby, a great leveller.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Their horses definitely are a different proposition racing on the grass , it does seem to make them a lot easier to beat.

in saying that I have noticed for a long time their horses are not as sharp when they are away elsewhere.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Speed and class aside, one of the things that gives their horses an edge is their ability to do a power of work during a race and still run on at the end.  Tough horses usually do well on grass.  Based on their racing patterns you would think they may have picked up a few more?

As an aside interested to see Benicio sold - I may be wrong but understood that of late horses that are moved on go to Oz or finished.  He always looked like a nice horse, hopefully he can do a good job for new connections.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

There have always been some that didn't go to Oz. I recall Someardensomewhere went to Grant Payne and battled a bit but was still useful on its best day (it won the $50K 4yo race at Kaikoura in 2014). It later ended up with Mark Jones and in amateur driver races before passing away.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

You would have to say the stable haven't had the greatest few days, Pacing Major and Mr Kalypso both beaten shorties last night, Stars Align won but had the perfect run and wasn't overly impressive, all their runners in the Invercargill Cup today went very poor by their standards (although Heaven Rocks was never going to step from a stand, especially with Neilson in the sulky).

Waikiki Beach beaten its last 2 starts in Oz as well.

They have quite a few chances in tonight at Melton and Menangle so let's see how they fare tonight, a couple of them look a moral on paper.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, WhoKnows said:

You would have to say the stable haven't had the greatest few days, Pacing Major and Mr Kalypso both beaten shorties last night, Stars Align won but had the perfect run and wasn't overly impressive, all their runners in the Invercargill Cup today went very poor by their standards (although Heaven Rocks was never going to step from a stand, especially with Neilson in the sulky).

Waikiki Beach beaten its last 2 starts in Oz as well.

They have quite a few chances in tonight at Melton and Menangle so let's see how they fare tonight, a couple of them look a moral on paper.

 

I am not quite feeling the domination of old.

I won't suggest any reasons why.

Almost willing to bet against them.....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, WhoKnows said:

Mr Kalypso a fair 4th and Grand Rainbow a pathetic last so far tonight, a few of their horses have definitely lost quite a few lengths lately, although the good ones being in Aussie means the boss is away and the horses always go worse when that happens.

You are either "on the money" or a joke - explain Star Aligns performance please

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Spikecity said:

You are either "on the money" or a joke - explain Star Aligns performance please

Whats to explain? Best horse in the field who won nicely. Was a horse with 2 concession wins to his credit so well placed.  What did you expect?  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Guest

It's great to have other trainers able to win  against the Allstar horses at the moment.

Definitely better racing

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

19 hours ago, WhoKnows said:

Mr Kalypso a fair 4th and Grand Rainbow a pathetic last so far tonight, a few of their horses have definitely lost quite a few lengths lately, although the good ones being in Aussie means the boss is away and the horses always go worse when that happens.

Being a bit tough on Grand Rainbow aren't you. The horse had a very hard run, three wide for a good part of journey. Not a great drive by T. Williams, he seems to have gone backwards driving wise, looked promising but now ordinary. Besides, Grand Rainbow was not last, he still beat the weak, poorly trained Gill runner home. That runner, Shadowman, was beaten 800m out. I cannot understand why this trainer starts his horses at Addington because they are not fit enough to prosper.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, Thejanitor said:

Being a bit tough on Grand Rainbow aren't you. The horse had a very hard run, three wide for a good part of journey. Not a great drive by T. Williams, he seems to have gone backwards driving wise, looked promising but now ordinary. Besides, Grand Rainbow was not last, he still beat the weak, poorly trained Gill runner home. That runner, Shadowman, was beaten 800m out. I cannot understand why this trainer starts his horses at Addington because they are not fit enough to prosper.

I think shadowmans problem was hes not as fast as those that he ran against. Still mr gill received $830 for running his 3 horses. Maybe he was happy with that?  Do not follow tim Williams but I see he only had the one drive.  Used to drive pretty good didn't he?                                        What about tonights race with lazarus in. What do you think. On past form Lazarus should win,but  personally don't think he is that much better than salty robyn based on recent form.  There are others in there that have more gait speed,so you would guess the triton horse with the gait speed may plan to lead and maybe hand up to his stablemate salty robyn .   Maybe the 2 horse with the gait speed may upset that plan? If they go too hard lazarus should win,but if they don't overdo it there may not be much in it. Time will tell.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well you would have to say how stupid are those aussies. You see it time and again over there where they seem overawed by the all stars. Fair enough to respect them,but for the lead tritton horse to pull back and make it easy for lazarus,and at the same time make it harder for salty robyn  by having him race parked really was dumb.  That was the race where he should have been beaten, their drivers just were not up to it. I guess Waikiki beach may have won it anyway.   Top win by lazarus,a great horse but this once in a lifetime stuff those aussies refer to is just as stupid as their tactics.     They have not even seen the same horse that won the nz cup,so I think they too are overawed .  just my opinion.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.