RaceCafe..#1...Tipsters Thread.... Share Your Fancies For Fun...Lets See Who The Best Tipsters Here Are.
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Who is the countries most under rated jockey?

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22 minutes ago, Sickopunter said:

Opie isn't quite Hong Kong class. But he is a class above in NZ.

Don't know he isn't up the class, it's a big pond and having right contacts and getting on to the good ones there is different.    Also, the quality is such I would imagine you would have to make a splash very  early to get to ride the better horses.  Chinese love winners and begin with losses and you may get labelled unlucky and get stuck with the inferior nags,  be fortunate enough to pull off a couple of long shot wins  to start with and  the better rides arrive ......  On the home front I'd rate Cameron Lammas as nominated above, and a girl we engaged a bit, Aleysha Schwerrin ?   To give her a rap, she has hasn't had  number of rides she has deserved even from home stable but surely would have had   one of the higher ratios of winners to rides last season.  I think  she benefited from Noel Harris' instruction as was vastly improved and does follow instructions well.

 

 

 

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37 minutes ago, gubellini said:

Sickopunter there are also a lot of woeful punters in New Zealand! They are the ones who bag jockeys because of a perceived bad ride when in fact they should be blaming themselves for backing the wrong horse!

I couldn't agree more. What's your point?

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18 minutes ago, Mr Spyro said:

Don't know he isn't up the class, it's a big pond and having right contacts and getting on to the good ones there is different.    Also, the quality is such I would imagine you would have to make a splash very  early to get to ride the better horses.  Chinese love winners and begin with losses and you may get labelled unlucky and get stuck with the inferior nags,  be fortunate enough to pull off a couple of long shot wins  to start with and  the better rides arrive ......  On the home front I'd rate Cameron Lammas as nominated above, and a girl we engaged a bit, Aleysha Schwerrin ?   To give her a rap, she has hasn't had  number of rides she has deserved even from home stable but surely would have had   one of the higher ratios of winners to rides last season.  I think  she benefited from Noel Harris' instruction as was vastly improved and does follow instructions well.

 

 

 

You got it right with "the quality is such". I think Opie is a very good rider. Probably a 7.5 out of 10. When you're riding against 8s, 9s and 10s you struggle. When you're riding against 3s 4s and 5s you dominate. Which I would imagine he will recommence doing again in NZ pretty soon.

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Lammas and Bosson do have very good A to E's However Matt Cameron, Mark Du Plessis and Mark Hills are rated higher, but only by a small margin.

Since there is always a lot of talk about Chris Johnson I looked at his and whilst its good, his A to E is not near any of the above and he is not in the top 10 in NZ.

 

How does A to E work?

A $2.00 fav has a theoretical 50% chance of winning, A rider only wins 40% of the time when riding a $2.00 chance then its a negative expectation, if they rider at 55% then its a positive expectation outcome and turns a profit.

Every ride is assessed on what its starting price is and the outcome.  the last 24 months is acceptable and relevant.

 

 

 

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Craig Grylls. The way he has been riding could well be his best season yet. Currently lying fourth on the premiership, ridden the most group and listed winners to date and strike rate is 7.09.

Doni Prastiyou.  An apprentice who is getting more polished and making better decisions. 

 

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12 hours ago, gubellini said:

Newmarket note that Autumn Wind today was one of the few favourites that Lynsey ever gets to ride. Her previous winner was First Honour at Ellerslie on November 26. He paid $56.10. Sadly she mainly rides only longshots!

Again, there's probably a good reason for that. Taken further, trainers obviously agree with me.

 

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12 hours ago, barryb said:

Mark Hills in the North

Daniel Bothamley in the South

Masa Tanaka in the CD

All 3 riders have outstanding A to E's & just backing them when riding in a certain price range will turn a profit long term.

Agree with those but i would certainly throw D Parstiyou in the mix,very underrated in my view.

SNR

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3 hours ago, rdytdy said:

Craig Grylls. The way he has been riding could well be his best season yet. Currently lying fourth on the premiership, ridden the most group and listed winners to date and strike rate is 7.09.

Doni Prastiyou.  An apprentice who is getting more polished and making better decisions. 

 

Yes Ted, agree about DP. He has improved markedly since coming North and his ride/win ratio must be right up there.

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6 hours ago, barryb said:

Lammas and Bosson do have very good A to E's However Matt Cameron, Mark Du Plessis and Mark Hills are rated higher, but only by a small margin.

Since there is always a lot of talk about Chris Johnson I looked at his and whilst its good, his A to E is not near any of the above and he is not in the top 10 in NZ.

 

How does A to E work?

A $2.00 fav has a theoretical 50% chance of winning, A rider only wins 40% of the time when riding a $2.00 chance then its a negative expectation, if they rider at 55% then its a positive expectation outcome and turns a profit.

Every ride is assessed on what its starting price is and the outcome.  the last 24 months is acceptable and relevant.

 

 

 

So what you are saying is that Chris Johnson is so good that his mounts get blindly backed off the boards?  :P

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Not quite, what I am saying is that taking into account the price the horse is paying his actual s/r is below what the expected is, when compared to other leading NZ riders.

His results are still very good, but he is not as brilliant as he is made out to be on here at times.

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3 hours ago, Midget said:

Alysha Collett, she's kind, gentle, explains events in a clear concise manner, horses like her, and she's marriage material :) 

I can't comment on the last bit, but I impressed by the way a lot of the jockeys are getting so much better at speaking on TV and giving intelligent comments,

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4 hours ago, barryb said:

Not quite, what I am saying is that taking into account the price the horse is paying his actual s/r is below what the expected is, when compared to other leading NZ riders.

His results are still very good, but he is not as brilliant as he is made out to be on here at times.

I think you have to ask yourself what was the last champion horse he rode. He hardly gets to ride the same quality of horse the likes of Matt Cameron gets to hop on. It is what he achieves with pretty ordinary horses at times that shows off his skills.

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5 hours ago, barryb said:

Not quite, what I am saying is that taking into account the price the horse is paying his actual s/r is below what the expected is, when compared to other leading NZ riders.

His results are still very good, but he is not as brilliant as he is made out to be on here at times.

That makes sense up to the point that you assume the market provides the best assessment of chance which it obviously doesn't. Certainly a better assessment of rider ability than the rather useless and meaningless though highly touted strike rate one though.

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14 hours ago, barryb said:

A $2.00 fav has a theoretical 50% chance of winning

Not quite.  You'd back a $2 favourite if you thought it had a better than 50% chance of winning, but in a pool with a 15% takeout and assuming the market provides a good assessment of the horse's chance, then a $2.00 favourite has a theoretical 42.5% chance of winning.

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1 hour ago, We're Doomed said:

I think you have to ask yourself what was the last champion horse he rode. He hardly gets to ride the same quality of horse the likes of Matt Cameron gets to hop on. It is what he achieves with pretty ordinary horses at times that shows off his skills.

Totally irrelevant WD, it doesn't matter what price the horse is paying or the quality of it. 

A 2 E takes the price of the runner into account.

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33 minutes ago, Leggy said:

That makes sense up to the point that you assume the market provides the best assessment of chance which it obviously doesn't. Certainly a better assessment of rider ability than the rather useless and meaningless though highly touted strike rate one though.

The more volume in the market the more accurate it is, this has been proven over numerous studies.  The market is by far the best assessment of a horses chance of winning any particular race.

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23 minutes ago, N1MUE said:

Not quite.  You'd back a $2 favourite if you thought it had a better than 50% chance of winning, but in a pool with a 15% takeout and assuming the market provides a good assessment of the horse's chance, then a $2.00 favourite has a theoretical 42.5% chance of winning.

Yes correct, I thought that might be too much of a hurdle to explain when many on here can't even get past Jockey S/R.

This will help a few understand

Consider 2 different riders, both ride 10 horses & both get 2 winners. S/R has them equal.

However one of them rides 10 $2 Favs and should have really had 5 winners.

The other rode Ten $10 shots and should have only got 1 winner.

Who is the better Jockey?.

 

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1 minute ago, barryb said:

Yes correct, I thought that might be too much of a hurdle to explain when many on here can't even get past Jockey S/R.

This will help a few understand

Consider 2 different riders, both ride 10 horses & bother get 2 winners. S/R has them equal.

However one of them rides 10 $2 Favs and should have really had 5 winners.

The other rode Ten $10 shots and should have only got 1 winner.

Who is the better Jockey?.

Yep I like that measure - good way of normalising for the quality of rides they get.

Out of interest, what does "A to E" stand for and where do you find these stats for NZ jockeys  (apologies if I missed this earlier in the thread)

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