Gruff 2,778 Report post Posted December 7, 2016 Alyesha Collett ...Mark Hills, Cameron Lammas sir1galivant and THE TORCH 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sickopunter 403 Report post Posted December 7, 2016 3 hours ago, Lloyd Vivian said: Even OP couldn't get anything home in Hong Kong when he was on longshots all day.... Opie isn't quite Hong Kong class. But he is a class above in NZ. racingsouthdude and WhoKnows 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
gubellini 3,923 Report post Posted December 7, 2016 Sickopunter there are also a lot of woeful punters in New Zealand! They are the ones who bag jockeys because of a perceived bad ride when in fact they should be blaming themselves for backing the wrong horse! Grant R, Lloyd Vivian, Belinda and 2 others 5 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Spyro 408 Report post Posted December 7, 2016 22 minutes ago, Sickopunter said: Opie isn't quite Hong Kong class. But he is a class above in NZ. Don't know he isn't up the class, it's a big pond and having right contacts and getting on to the good ones there is different. Also, the quality is such I would imagine you would have to make a splash very early to get to ride the better horses. Chinese love winners and begin with losses and you may get labelled unlucky and get stuck with the inferior nags, be fortunate enough to pull off a couple of long shot wins to start with and the better rides arrive ...... On the home front I'd rate Cameron Lammas as nominated above, and a girl we engaged a bit, Aleysha Schwerrin ? To give her a rap, she has hasn't had number of rides she has deserved even from home stable but surely would have had one of the higher ratios of winners to rides last season. I think she benefited from Noel Harris' instruction as was vastly improved and does follow instructions well. THE TORCH and Lloyd Vivian 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sickopunter 403 Report post Posted December 7, 2016 37 minutes ago, gubellini said: Sickopunter there are also a lot of woeful punters in New Zealand! They are the ones who bag jockeys because of a perceived bad ride when in fact they should be blaming themselves for backing the wrong horse! I couldn't agree more. What's your point? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sickopunter 403 Report post Posted December 7, 2016 18 minutes ago, Mr Spyro said: Don't know he isn't up the class, it's a big pond and having right contacts and getting on to the good ones there is different. Also, the quality is such I would imagine you would have to make a splash very early to get to ride the better horses. Chinese love winners and begin with losses and you may get labelled unlucky and get stuck with the inferior nags, be fortunate enough to pull off a couple of long shot wins to start with and the better rides arrive ...... On the home front I'd rate Cameron Lammas as nominated above, and a girl we engaged a bit, Aleysha Schwerrin ? To give her a rap, she has hasn't had number of rides she has deserved even from home stable but surely would have had one of the higher ratios of winners to rides last season. I think she benefited from Noel Harris' instruction as was vastly improved and does follow instructions well. You got it right with "the quality is such". I think Opie is a very good rider. Probably a 7.5 out of 10. When you're riding against 8s, 9s and 10s you struggle. When you're riding against 3s 4s and 5s you dominate. Which I would imagine he will recommence doing again in NZ pretty soon. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
barryb 2,062 Report post Posted December 7, 2016 Lammas and Bosson do have very good A to E's However Matt Cameron, Mark Du Plessis and Mark Hills are rated higher, but only by a small margin. Since there is always a lot of talk about Chris Johnson I looked at his and whilst its good, his A to E is not near any of the above and he is not in the top 10 in NZ. How does A to E work? A $2.00 fav has a theoretical 50% chance of winning, A rider only wins 40% of the time when riding a $2.00 chance then its a negative expectation, if they rider at 55% then its a positive expectation outcome and turns a profit. Every ride is assessed on what its starting price is and the outcome. the last 24 months is acceptable and relevant. cherry_bomb and porky 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
rdytdy 5,335 Report post Posted December 7, 2016 Craig Grylls. The way he has been riding could well be his best season yet. Currently lying fourth on the premiership, ridden the most group and listed winners to date and strike rate is 7.09. Doni Prastiyou. An apprentice who is getting more polished and making better decisions. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fartoomuch 1,376 Report post Posted December 7, 2016 12 hours ago, gubellini said: Newmarket note that Autumn Wind today was one of the few favourites that Lynsey ever gets to ride. Her previous winner was First Honour at Ellerslie on November 26. He paid $56.10. Sadly she mainly rides only longshots! Again, there's probably a good reason for that. Taken further, trainers obviously agree with me. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midget 4,489 Report post Posted December 7, 2016 12 hours ago, barryb said: Mark Hills in the North Daniel Bothamley in the South Masa Tanaka in the CD All 3 riders have outstanding A to E's & just backing them when riding in a certain price range will turn a profit long term. Agree with those but i would certainly throw D Parstiyou in the mix,very underrated in my view. SNR Turny and elbow 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohokaman 5,763 Report post Posted December 7, 2016 3 hours ago, rdytdy said: Craig Grylls. The way he has been riding could well be his best season yet. Currently lying fourth on the premiership, ridden the most group and listed winners to date and strike rate is 7.09. Doni Prastiyou. An apprentice who is getting more polished and making better decisions. Yes Ted, agree about DP. He has improved markedly since coming North and his ride/win ratio must be right up there. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
cherry_bomb 89 Report post Posted December 7, 2016 6 hours ago, barryb said: Lammas and Bosson do have very good A to E's However Matt Cameron, Mark Du Plessis and Mark Hills are rated higher, but only by a small margin. Since there is always a lot of talk about Chris Johnson I looked at his and whilst its good, his A to E is not near any of the above and he is not in the top 10 in NZ. How does A to E work? A $2.00 fav has a theoretical 50% chance of winning, A rider only wins 40% of the time when riding a $2.00 chance then its a negative expectation, if they rider at 55% then its a positive expectation outcome and turns a profit. Every ride is assessed on what its starting price is and the outcome. the last 24 months is acceptable and relevant. So what you are saying is that Chris Johnson is so good that his mounts get blindly backed off the boards? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
barryb 2,062 Report post Posted December 8, 2016 Not quite, what I am saying is that taking into account the price the horse is paying his actual s/r is below what the expected is, when compared to other leading NZ riders. His results are still very good, but he is not as brilliant as he is made out to be on here at times. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mattski 165 Report post Posted December 8, 2016 Alysha Collett sir1galivant and richie 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midget 4,489 Report post Posted December 8, 2016 Alysha Collett, she's kind, gentle, explains events in a clear concise manner, horses like her, and she's marriage material bus stop and richie 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
We're Doomed 4,824 Report post Posted December 8, 2016 3 hours ago, Midget said: Alysha Collett, she's kind, gentle, explains events in a clear concise manner, horses like her, and she's marriage material I can't comment on the last bit, but I impressed by the way a lot of the jockeys are getting so much better at speaking on TV and giving intelligent comments, Lloyd Vivian 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
We're Doomed 4,824 Report post Posted December 8, 2016 4 hours ago, barryb said: Not quite, what I am saying is that taking into account the price the horse is paying his actual s/r is below what the expected is, when compared to other leading NZ riders. His results are still very good, but he is not as brilliant as he is made out to be on here at times. I think you have to ask yourself what was the last champion horse he rode. He hardly gets to ride the same quality of horse the likes of Matt Cameron gets to hop on. It is what he achieves with pretty ordinary horses at times that shows off his skills. hedley, THE TORCH, Lloyd Vivian and 1 other 4 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Party Poker 167 Report post Posted December 8, 2016 My favourites - Dylan Turner in the central districts. Sam Spratt in the north Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leggy 4,010 Report post Posted December 8, 2016 5 hours ago, barryb said: Not quite, what I am saying is that taking into account the price the horse is paying his actual s/r is below what the expected is, when compared to other leading NZ riders. His results are still very good, but he is not as brilliant as he is made out to be on here at times. That makes sense up to the point that you assume the market provides the best assessment of chance which it obviously doesn't. Certainly a better assessment of rider ability than the rather useless and meaningless though highly touted strike rate one though. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
N1MUE 1,877 Report post Posted December 8, 2016 14 hours ago, barryb said: A $2.00 fav has a theoretical 50% chance of winning Not quite. You'd back a $2 favourite if you thought it had a better than 50% chance of winning, but in a pool with a 15% takeout and assuming the market provides a good assessment of the horse's chance, then a $2.00 favourite has a theoretical 42.5% chance of winning. MS26 and The Crucible 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
barryb 2,062 Report post Posted December 8, 2016 1 hour ago, We're Doomed said: I think you have to ask yourself what was the last champion horse he rode. He hardly gets to ride the same quality of horse the likes of Matt Cameron gets to hop on. It is what he achieves with pretty ordinary horses at times that shows off his skills. Totally irrelevant WD, it doesn't matter what price the horse is paying or the quality of it. A 2 E takes the price of the runner into account. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
barryb 2,062 Report post Posted December 8, 2016 33 minutes ago, Leggy said: That makes sense up to the point that you assume the market provides the best assessment of chance which it obviously doesn't. Certainly a better assessment of rider ability than the rather useless and meaningless though highly touted strike rate one though. The more volume in the market the more accurate it is, this has been proven over numerous studies. The market is by far the best assessment of a horses chance of winning any particular race. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
barryb 2,062 Report post Posted December 8, 2016 23 minutes ago, N1MUE said: Not quite. You'd back a $2 favourite if you thought it had a better than 50% chance of winning, but in a pool with a 15% takeout and assuming the market provides a good assessment of the horse's chance, then a $2.00 favourite has a theoretical 42.5% chance of winning. Yes correct, I thought that might be too much of a hurdle to explain when many on here can't even get past Jockey S/R. This will help a few understand Consider 2 different riders, both ride 10 horses & both get 2 winners. S/R has them equal. However one of them rides 10 $2 Favs and should have really had 5 winners. The other rode Ten $10 shots and should have only got 1 winner. Who is the better Jockey?. Peter Harrop and The Crucible 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Crucible 632 Report post Posted December 8, 2016 1 minute ago, barryb said: Yes correct, I thought that might be too much of a hurdle to explain when many on here can't even get past Jockey S/R. This will help a few understand Consider 2 different riders, both ride 10 horses & bother get 2 winners. S/R has them equal. However one of them rides 10 $2 Favs and should have really had 5 winners. The other rode Ten $10 shots and should have only got 1 winner. Who is the better Jockey?. Yep I like that measure - good way of normalising for the quality of rides they get. Out of interest, what does "A to E" stand for and where do you find these stats for NZ jockeys (apologies if I missed this earlier in the thread) Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
barryb 2,062 Report post Posted December 8, 2016 The Actual result v the Expected Result The $2 Shot Rider Actually got 2 wins but the Expected is 5 based on the $2 price. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...