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crustyngrizzly

Trump written off

779 posts in this topic

All the channels that i have watched today are saying that Trump not winning Iowa is the not good for him.

Here are a list for both parties of winners of Iowa but losers eventually

Rick Santorum

Mike Huckabee

Bob Dole x2

Gerald Ford

G H W Bush(lost to reagan)

Dick Gephardt

Tom Harkins

In 92 Bill Clinton only got 3%. but in 96 got 98%

Wait till after New Hampshire

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 My opinion Crusty is,Trump wins New Hampshire as will Bernie Sanders for the Democrats. I think the evangelical vote which is very high in Iowa, won out for Cruz . Don't know about you Crusty, but i'm finding both races, Republican and Democrat fascinating.

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They certainly are a lot more entertaining than ours thats for sure.

I have loved US politics ever since i read AMERICA IN SEARCH OF ITSELF by Theodore White.

Other political figures i have read about and enjoyed include

TIP O'NEILL...... Man of the House

Daniel Patrick Moynihan.....A biography

Donald Regan .....For The Record From Wall St to Washington.

George McGovern......Grassroots

Dan Quayle..........Standing Firm

Richard Nixon.......I Gave Them a Sword.

Gerald Ford......The Future of the Presidency

Michael Deaver....Behind The Scenes.

Plenty of good books around just gotta have time to read them

 

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I think the Primaries are totally irrelevant.With the changing demographic in the USA  the Republican party will never win again

regardless of who stands.

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I would say that with some of the speeches coming out of the Republicans mouths,you could be forgiven if you thought that you were in North Korea or communist Russia and yet {i hope not) they could still win the Whitehouse.

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On 3 February 2016 at 7:07 PM, aquaman said:

 My opinion Crusty is,Trump wins New Hampshire as will Bernie Sanders for the Democrats. I think the evangelical vote which is very high in Iowa, won out for Cruz . Don't know about you Crusty, but i'm finding both races, Republican and Democrat fascinating.

Fascinating perhaps Aman, but certainly bloody worrying...

God knows what havoc either of these would wreak....already talking of getting rid of Free Trade Agreements.

Just shows how many disgruntled or disenfranchised punters there are in the US currently.

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1 hour ago, aquaman said:

Whats your prediction Crusty for the next US President?.

My heart says John Ellis Bush but my head says Hillary Clinton.

Trump to implode soon would be my pick.

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18 hours ago, Ohokaman said:
18 hours ago, Ohokaman said:

Fascinating perhaps Aman, but certainly bloody worrying...

God knows what havoc either of these would wreak....already talking of getting rid of Free Trade Agreements.

Just shows how many disgruntled or disenfranchised punters there are in the US currently.

Fascinating perhaps Aman, but certainly bloody worrying...

God knows what havoc either of these would wreak....already talking of getting rid of Free Trade Agreements.

Just shows how many disgruntled or disenfranchised punters there are in the US currently.

Not worrying at all Ohoka, on the contrary, i can't wait. World is a complete mess since the useless Obama took over. I see the Republicans winning, and i see it as a race between Trump, Cruz, or Mario, up against Sanders, with my money and hopes on Trump. Clinton cannot win. Sanders is the Winston Peters of American Politics. He will win the Democrats, but lose the election. There thats my prediction.

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Let's hope you are wrong then.....Obama has done his best but been stymied at every turn by Redneck Republicans.

The fact Palin is backing Trump should have everyone very afraid.

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16 hours ago, crustyngrizzly said:

My heart says John Ellis Bush but my head says Hillary Clinton.

Trump to implode soon would be my pick.

Please,not another Bush in the Whitehouse by hook or by crook. The thought of Hillary Clinton being President makes me feel a little unwell. I hope Trump makes it to the big house. He's a colourful character which is more than can be said for the others. He's a very successful businessman who has spent his life creating wealth. Is a strong personality and decision maker that does not strike me as a man who will let the faceless advisers in the back room call the shots. I think he is a man who will say exactly what is on his mind and what he's up to. Priority on PR spin will recede.

What a welcome change that will be from the usual parade who look you right in the eye and tell you,read my lips,no new taxes or that they are not a crook or that they didn't have sexual relations with that woman or that Iraq has weapons of mass destruction etc. Trump can't be any worse than them can he?.  The fact many of the establishment are so against Trump is enough for many voters to look his way. The biggest surprise to me so far is that one of his opponents has not dragged out a line of woman saying Trump molested and beat them. There is still time for that rabbit to be pulled from the hat. He will be set up to implode but will he take the bait? My pick is he know's it's coming and will have a non loose cannon plan in place for it. 

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I think that the Bush name is well and truly tarnished,however i think JEB proved as Governor of Florida that he can lead.

I realise that he is reluctant to critisise his family however i think that is something we are all reluctant to do.

Given the fact that he converted to Catholicism (no doubt against the Bush family ideals)he has shown that he is willing to be his own man and step away from the Bush families previous history.

Just my thoughts.

1 hour ago, JayTee2016 said:

Please,not another Bush in the Whitehouse by hook or by crook. The thought of Hillary Clinton being President makes me feel a little unwell. I hope Trump makes it to the big house. He's a colourful character which is more than can be said for the others. He's a very successful businessman who has spent his life creating wealth. Is a strong personality and decision maker that does not strike me as a man who will let the faceless advisers in the back room call the shots. I think he is a man who will say exactly what is on his mind and what he's up to. Priority on PR spin will recede.

What a welcome change that will be from the usual parade who look you right in the eye and tell you,read my lips,no new taxes or that they are not a crook or that they didn't have sexual relations with that woman or that Iraq has weapons of mass destruction etc. Trump can't be any worse than them can he?.  The fact many of the establishment are so against Trump is enough for many voters to look his way. The biggest surprise to me so far is that one of his opponents has not dragged out a line of woman saying Trump molested and beat them. There is still time for that rabbit to be pulled from the hat. He will be set up to implode but will he take the bait? My pick is he know's it's coming and will have a non loose cannon plan in place for it. 

I

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Some massive money traded on betfair for the next president, I've seen Trump as low as 5.5 which is quite amazing really, geez it would be 'interesting' to say the least if he got in. Can't see it happening personally and I imagine at the current odds he's a decent lay but funnier things have happened!

image.png

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22 minutes ago, GONSTA said:

Some massive money traded on betfair for the next president, I've seen Trump as low as 5.5 which is quite amazing really, geez it would be 'interesting' to say the least if he got in. Can't see it happening personally and I imagine at the current odds he's a decent lay but funnier things have happened!

image.png

GONSTA,

I'm not a big punter but have thought about having an o/s account with b/f but have never pursued it. Two main reason's are I don't feel I bet enough to justify it and because I don't really understand how it all works.

Can you explain please the four different prices beside each candidates name? I see in the fourth column in the white for Hillary Clinton it reads 1.96 and under that it reads $1296.

If for example I want to take a bet,who am I betting with or against? What does b/f take out of winning or losing wagers? Is a $20 bet too small?

Cheers

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11 minutes ago, JayTee2016 said:

GONSTA,

I'm not a big punter but have thought about having an o/s account with b/f but have never pursued it. Two main reason's are I don't feel I bet enough to justify it and because I don't really understand how it all works.

Can you explain please the four different prices beside each candidates name? I see in the fourth column in the white for Hillary Clinton it reads 1.96 and under that it reads $1296.

If for example I want to take a bet,who am I betting with or against? What does b/f take out of winning or losing wagers? Is a $20 bet too small?

Cheers

$5 min bet, the blue column is if you want to 'back' Clinton, the Red is if you want to bet against her. ( someone else wants to 'back' her ) The amount underneath the price is how much you can put on. Eg if you wanted to back her currently you could only get $15 at $1.94 and $199 at $1.93.

If you wanted to lay Clinton at $1.95 for the $90 available you would make $94.74 and betfair take 5% of your WINNING's only. 

It's an ever changing market and you have the ability to lock in a profit if the prices change in your favour. Eg if you backed her at $2.5 you could now lay off at 1.95 and you have made a profit regardless of the outcome. There's been close to 6 mill matched on the next president market alone, after trump lost the first state he got out to $10+.

Betfair is friggen awesome, even if your only betting $50 a week, your chances of coming out with a profit is far far greater than taking NZ tab prices. Live betting on sports is awesome, the markets aren't suspended 80% of the time like our monopoly, just be careful with the tv delay! Betfair is always one step ahead.

 

Hope that isn't to confusing!! They have some great videos to learn about it on their website, I highly recommend it. 

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15 minutes ago, JayTee2016 said:

GONSTA,

 

Can you explain please the four different prices beside each candidates name? I see in the fourth column in the white for Hillary Clinton it reads 1.96 and under that it reads $1296.

 

This means someone in the world, ( could be me ) wants to back Clinton to be the next president and they want to put $1296 on it. It's down to $778 now so it's a pretty active market in the scheme of things and how long before it will be resulted. 

Sports like T20, NBA, NFL, NRL all have decent liquidity and fluctuate wildly at times, they are a traders heaven generally!

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I cant believe anyone would take this (rich)Trump idiot seriously. But then again this is America, a vision of everything that's wrong with the world,encapsulated within its boundarys.

He in my opinion would be a complete disaster ,should he prevail(which I doubt).The Hispanic element of America,s population would be apoplectic,given his views to date.

Its like watching an enthralling Comedy show,untill one realises this is real.

God Bless America.  I doubt it.!!

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25 minutes ago, GONSTA said:

This means someone in the world, ( could be me ) wants to back Clinton to be the next president and they want to put $1296 on it. It's down to $778 now so it's a pretty active market in the scheme of things and how long before it will be resulted. 

Sports like T20, NBA, NFL, NRL all have decent liquidity and fluctuate wildly at times, they are a traders heaven generally!

Thank's GONSTA,

Your assistance has inspired me to open an account with them which is exactly what I've just done. I do miss the fun stimulating side of betting and I think you've just helped me find it. Will enjoy watching their video to help wise me up some more. What if any would be the downside of using b/f? Is there anything I should avoid...apart from losing?

Cheers 

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12 minutes ago, globederby12 said:

I cant believe anyone would take this (rich)Trump idiot seriously. But then again this is America, a vision of everything that's wrong with the world,encapsulated within its boundarys.

He in my opinion would be a complete disaster ,should he prevail(which I doubt).The Hispanic element of America,s population would be apoplectic,given his views to date.

Its like watching an enthralling Comedy show,untill one realises this is real.

God Bless America.  I doubt it.!!

He's done ok for an idiot globederby12. He does put his foot in his mouth along the way but that is what G W did through his entire presidency. What are your biggest concerns? Do you have any concerns with Hillary Clinton?

At least Trump has made this presidential race even more interesting than usual. I may be a sadist but I enjoy watching the other candidates squirm every time Trump's name is mentioned. 

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8 minutes ago, JayTee2016 said:

Thank's GONSTA,

Your assistance has inspired me to open an account with them which is exactly what I've just done. I do miss the fun stimulating side of betting and I think you've just helped me find it. Will enjoy watching their video to help wise me up some more. What if any would be the downside of using b/f? Is there anything I should avoid...apart from losing?

Cheers 

You will need to get a license or passport + a bank statement or bill with your address / betfair username written on both and get it stamped by a justice of peace, not as hard as it sounds and well worth the effort. I just went into the police station. 

As for the downsides of using betfair, I'm yet to encounter one, apart from regretting not laying off on tiger woods to lock in a $900 profit shown in my photo below. He ended up choking the last round and I ended up with zilch! You also need to wait 2-3 days for withdrawals to clear but it's well well worth it. Good luck with it JT, there's some great information on the web to learn off, betfair will take your gambling to a whole different level, trust me.

 

 

image.png

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Trump is a breath of fresh air, non PC, speaks from the heart, no slimy spin from him. And best of all, paying for his own campaign, unlike all the others. As long as he decides to keep running i feel he will be next President.

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25 minutes ago, GONSTA said:

You will need to get a license or passport + a bank statement or bill with your address / betfair username written on both and get it stamped by a justice of peace, not as hard as it sounds and well worth the effort. I just went into the police station. 

As for the downsides of using betfair, I'm yet to encounter one, apart from regretting not laying off on tiger woods to lock in a $900 profit shown in my photo below. He ended up choking the last round and I ended up with zilch! You also need to wait 2-3 days for withdrawals to clear but it's well well worth it. Good luck with it JT, there's some great information on the web to learn off, betfair will take your gambling to a whole different level, trust me.

 

 

image.png

The one's that get away always haunt us don't they. Even when I have a really good day (rare event) it's usually the one that got away that sticks in the claw. My usual is I got the treble on the last three races but didn't take a quaddie and really liked the first leg winner or got the trifecta and had the runner that ran fourth but didn't take a first four that paid a small fortune.

They didn't ask me for licence details with a J.P etc when I opened the account. Will that occur when I want to make a withdrawal?   

Cheers

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22 hours ago, aquaman said:

Whats your prediction Crusty for the next US President?.

My ballot must still be in the mail. (Yes, I can still vote in either Massachusetts primary (D or R) as I'm registered as an "independent" and also can cast an absentee ballot for President when the time comes).

There is no way Trump will win the final election. I'll be extremely surprised if he is even the Republican entry. His tactics have been tried many times before. Google "Ross Perot". While it is all well to find fault with the current government they'll have to have some realistic answers on how they are going to fix those problems. I don't hear many realistic fixes coming from him. (Can anyone image Trump speaking with Fuji about a new Russian military base there? lol)

Am I reading one of the previous image correctly that you can "lay" Trump becoming President at $6 plus? If so I'd strongly suggest you grab some of it.

This early on I'd predict either Hillary (questionable because of her gender) or Bernie Sanders (questionable because of his age) to be the next President.

My vote today would be for Bernie, for what it's worth.

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5 minutes ago, JayTee2016 said:

The one's that get away always haunt us don't they. Even when I have a really good day (rare event) it's usually the one that got away that sticks in the claw. My usual is I got the treble on the last three races but didn't take a quaddie and really liked the first leg winner or got the trifecta and had the runner that ran fourth but didn't take a first four that paid a small fortune.

They didn't ask me for licence details with a J.P etc when I opened the account. Will that occur when I want to make a withdrawal?   

Cheers

Always the way eh, seems easy afterwards!

You won't be able to bet on any Australia markets ( NZ is included in that ) until your account is verified. Not sure about withdrawals. If you want to find out about more info go to https://kyc.betfair.com/australian_markets.html   

You will also need to take a photo on your phone or some device of your debit/credit card I'm pretty sure. Get it sorted and you will never look back! Leakage FTW!

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