RaceCafe..#1...Tipsters Thread.... Share Your Fancies For Fun...Lets See Who The Best Tipsters Here Are.
jimsmith

Was it a great Melbourne Cup?

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Insider...

If the Japanese wish to make use of a pacemaker, they will bring one that will make the field. This will not be difficult for them to do if they really wish to do so.

The use of a pacemaker is definitely illegal in Australasia...but the use of one would have to be proved. The attitude of the authorities and the racing public would be interesting indeed.

All the best.

Ashoka

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Fair go you lot. Prior to the running of the MC, most if not all commentators and trainers were saying that this years Cup was one of the highest quality races in MC history ! The only reason POP was 100/1 was punter ignorance. Here we had the runner-up by a close margin in the record breaking MV Cup at 100/1 but the winner at 15/1!! After being slaughtered in the MV Cup and nearly being taken off because of it, Ms Payne retained the ride and ride a masterly race to win. The odds were false and the Cup was one of the strongest fields in years. The result meant the MC remains part of racing folklore. Before the race, Darren Weir said that POP was going better than Signoff at the same time last year. Signoff ran 4th. This win was no fluke.

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9 hours ago, Trump said:

Fair go you lot. Prior to the running of the MC, most if not all commentators and trainers were saying that this years Cup was one of the highest quality races in MC history ! The only reason POP was 100/1 was punter ignorance. Here we had the runner-up by a close margin in the record breaking MV Cup at 100/1 but the winner at 15/1!! After being slaughtered in the MV Cup and nearly being taken off because of it, Ms Payne retained the ride and ride a masterly race to win. The odds were false and the Cup was one of the strongest fields in years. The result meant the MC remains part of racing folklore. Before the race, Darren Weir said that POP was going better than Signoff at the same time last year. Signoff ran 4th. This win was no fluke.

Invariably it's easy to make a case for any horse after it wins. I believe punter ignorance was not the reason Prince Of Penzance was at 100-1. In some races 100-1 reflects a horse most expect to finish last or close to it. In other races such as the Melbourne Cup 100-1 only reflects order of favoritism. People right across the board believe you can make a stronger case for other runners. That's not "punter ignorance". Easy to be wise after the event. That aside there is already more than enough "them and us" in the game without encouraging more..

I'm not an ignorant punter and I personally put numerous horses ahead of P.O.P in this years M.C. The weight of money on those strong fancies must result in other horses who are realistic hopes starting at odds such as 100-1.

I believe this years Cup was not a great cup and also believe more people have been turned off the event in the last two years than turned on to it. That won't stop it being a huge event in 2016 due to it's importance and the hype. Truth is you could have people lining up at the TAB to bet on an egg and spoon race if you hype it up enough to the point people believe they have pointy shaped heads if they don't get involved in the race.

In 2014 we saw the demise of two wonderful horses. The Japanese horse Admire Rakti who started fav but died shortly after the race. It wasn't enough that the horse was never a winning hope in the home straight but it then dies. Most novice punters are not philosophical about such things. They just watched many others get excited about the finish while they stood there wondering why they had a once a year bet. 

Then you have the grand stayer Araldo taking fright and breaking it's leg shortly after the race. Most people admire horses. They see them as noble majestic animals. They don't like supporting a sport that results in horses dying.

Many still lined up for another crack at picking the winner this year. Many picked the clear fav Fame Game. So much hype about this horse prior to the running yet was never a winning chance at any point in the race. Many selected Red Cadeaux due to the known factors of it's history in the race. With so many question marks over other runners at least with Red Cadeaux you had a horse that will likely be there abouts. Instead the brave warrior Red Cadeaux is unplaced and pays the ultimate price.

All of us seasoned punters understand this is just a most unfortunate aspect of a sport we love so we turn the page. I sincerely believe many novice punters along with a few others will not turn the page. They will just ignore all the hype in next years cup as the negatives for them outweigh the positives. From that aspect alone this years M.C was not a great race.

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The form of the Imported horses was first class. The 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th placed horses from the CC started. The record running 1st and 2nd placed MV Cup horses started. The Derby and Turnbull Stakes winner started. The Caulfield Stakes winner. Two Japanese horses regarded as in their top rank of stayers. Many other top ranked horses etc. Perhaps as many say, the track was a problem? But in the end, they all had to race on it. Regardless of the result, the field "was" exceptional (as many far more learned race experts said prior) and because a 100/1 shot won it, some want to throw stones. The winner should have been the same price as United States (15/1). It had bone cups removed and a wind operation since it's 2014 MV Cup win and was presented on the day in better condition than Signoff last year (4th). It is a very very good stayer and would have won its 2nd MV Cup if not for being slaughtered. If it did win in record time it would have carried a kg penalty. But to say it was a weak field or lesser quality field this year is rubbish. The only sense made on this thread is Pogoson's re the Track Manager. I don't think Goodie will be getting a Xmas Bonus !

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Thanks for that Lecithin. I hope everyone takes the opportunity to watch this. Totally confirms my opinion on the race as stated earlier in this thread:

"The lack of pace in a slowly run race, on a biased track meant it was not a great Cup and won't be remembered as a great race itself."

 

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1 hour ago, lecithin said:

This video makes quite interesting viewing:

https://twitter.com/Racing/status/670040428897439744

A must watch!

It also proves to me how relying on sectionals can be a death trap if lots of other information isn't absorbed.

In fact I don't know that all the time, effort and cost being spent on sectional timing, which incidentally the cost of, seems astronomical, is actually worth it, but I guess that's another story or another thread!

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28 minutes ago, Insider said:

A must watch!

It also proves to me how relying on sectionals can be a death trap if lots of other information isn't absorbed.

In fact I don't know that all the time, effort and cost being spent on sectional timing, which incidentally the cost of, seems astronomical, is actually worth it, but I guess that's another story or another thread!

Actually Insider i think this race is a great example where sectional timing shows its worth.

Very easy on face value to say a few horses were terrible. I backed and tipped Fame Game. A few said to me it was awful. The timing (which shows tempo) clearly shows it had no chance.

So the value of sectionals in this case relies on you also thinking how the race was run etc etc. Just another tool. Pretty important one actually.

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37 minutes ago, chelseacol said:

Actually Insider i think this race is a great example where sectional timing shows its worth.

Very easy on face value to say a few horses were terrible. I backed and tipped Fame Game. A few said to me it was awful. The timing (which shows tempo) clearly shows it had no chance.

So the value of sectionals in this case relies on you also thinking how the race was run etc etc. Just another tool. Pretty important one actually.

Yes, but it depends on what you consider "sectionals" to be - many just look at the last 400m and the like, which are fairly useless in my opinion.  However if you look at something like Daily Sectionals provide where you can see early, mid and late sectionals it would basically show in numbers exactly what the footage does - they went at reasonable speed for the first 1200m, about 40 lengths slower than average thought the middle stages and then just average sectionals at the end.  Hardly much to get excited about, and as others have noted certainly not indicative of a great race.

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And. Van Der Hum would have run last if it was a dry track ! Gala Supreme would have run 2nd if NGH hadn't gone so early on Glengowan. Kingston Town would be the greatest winner ever if Miracle Mal hadn't treated him like Phar Lap etc etc etc. This years Cup was of the highest quality. The Jockey's performances were woeful - except for the winner. Credit where credit is due. The winner was not a 100/1 chance. It was only made so by the mug punters ignoring the form. In a world class staying field, a class stayer won.

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