TOM(the other Molloy) 1,774 Report post Posted October 3, 2015 Anyone tell me why the TAB won't let me multi up (among others) VSB in the Turnbull today and the Cox Plate. Not looking for opinion about whether he will win either ( or even run at Moonee Valley) but why can't I back him in both? I imagine I couldn't back the same horse to win the two cups either? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mainland Rookie 52 Report post Posted October 3, 2015 Pretty Sure its because if VSB runs a place today then his odds in the Cox Plate would shorten. So its 2 options that relate to one another. Like backing Hawkes Bay to beat Southland today multied into Hawkes Bay winning the Championship. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Donovan 48 Report post Posted October 4, 2015 I do think that this in most circumstances that this "rule" is badly conceived. As opposed to MR reply, the rugby bets are is the same race, if you win a game you get 2 points towards the league. If you win a race you do not get to start 2 lengths ahead in the next, often it counts against you as a penalty may be incurred. If betting the same to horses results in reduced odds, then its not a stretch to say that if you back a horse to win in the Caulfield Cup and double into a different horse in the Melbourne Cup (that is engaged in the Caulfield Cup) , then you should receive enhanced odds, as if your horse beats the other then it would probably go out in the MC odds! Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
N1MUE 1,877 Report post Posted October 4, 2015 (edited) Where's Don when we need him? Fair point you make about enhanced odds on your Melb Cup horse because it's been beaten by your CC winner, but impossible to administer. When they sell you the bet they're not certain your Melb Cup runner has run in the CC, however with a same horse double it's a given that it's won the first race for the bet to be live. Edited October 4, 2015 by N1MUE Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
TOM(the other Molloy) 1,774 Report post Posted October 5, 2015 None of that makes one tiny bit of sense in regards why I couldn't back him in two races given they are three weeks apart. I guess it is a good thing in the circumstances though I think he would have been a lot more competitive yesterday without the hood making him race keenly. So can I multi one horse in the two cups or not? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Donovan 48 Report post Posted October 5, 2015 Yes Tom, you can but will not get the full odds. If they were both paying $10.00, the gutless ones would probably give you $60.00 rather than $100.00. You may do better on the betting exchanges. I dont think that there has been a CC MC double since Ethereal over 12 years ago, so not quite sure why they are quite so gutless. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Donovan 48 Report post Posted October 5, 2015 Yes Tom, you can but will not get the full odds. If they were both paying $10.00, the gutless ones would probably give you $60.00 rather than $100.00. You may do better on the betting exchanges. I dont think that there has been a CC MC double since Ethereal over 12 years ago, so not quite sure why they are quite so gutless. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
N1MUE 1,877 Report post Posted October 5, 2015 Take Maygrove as an example. Currently paying $101 in CC and $201 in Melb Cup. So I take a $10 multi on him to win both. He somehow wins the CC and I now have $1,010 on him to win the Melb Cup. You're saying you would expect the bookies to sell me that bet at odds of $201 with the knowledge that he had won the CC? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Donovan 48 Report post Posted October 5, 2015 er they don't have knowledge that it has won the CC. If I multi Maygrove in the CC into a different horse for MC , that was in the field for the CC will I get enhanced odds for the double as if Maygrove has won then the other horse couldn't have! You would deserve every penny for picking a horse that is $101 to win two of the most competitive races in the world! THE TORCH 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
N1MUE 1,877 Report post Posted October 5, 2015 (edited) For the multi to be live after the CC they have 100% certainty that it has won the CC. I responded to your point on enhanced odds on other horses in an earlier post. Edited October 5, 2015 by N1MUE Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Donovan 48 Report post Posted October 5, 2015 er they don't have knowledge that it has won the CC. If I multi Maygrove in the CC into a different horse for MC , that was in the field for the CC will I get enhanced odds for the double as if Maygrove has won then the other horse couldn't have! You would deserve every penny for picking a horse that is $101 to win two of the most competitive races in the world! Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
lecithin 429 Report post Posted October 5, 2015 None of that makes one tiny bit of sense in regards why I couldn't back him in two races given they are three weeks apart. I guess it is a good thing in the circumstances though I think he would have been a lot more competitive yesterday without the hood making him race keenly. So can I multi one horse in the two cups or not? You can ..... but not currently with the TAB. Most offshore bookies offer "same horse" doubles for the major races, where they set specific odds for certain horses to win two specific major races. As others have said though, you won't generally get the odds the horse is paying in each race multiplied together, and that is reasonable in my opinion. Black Kirrama 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Black Kirrama 1,513 Report post Posted October 5, 2015 lecithin is correct. Three years ago I wanted to give the TAB some good publicity and positive vibes. The KELT ( was it 600k ?)had gone and thankfully Russell Warwick and the team from Westbury took the sponsorship on board Rev up the Hastings carnival.FLEUR de LUNE to win all Three Legs of the Hastings Triple Crown. The head line In The Informant would have been: "Trainer's Astute Brother backs Fleur to win $1 million ): Dennis Ryan would have edited this. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Black Kirrama 1,513 Report post Posted October 5, 2015 ( the previous post vanished ) My point was :I could not take Fleur to win all three races. I spoke with Mike Dore at the time.I Told him it was a huge story for mainstream TV. John Campbell ,TV 3 at that stage: I alerted him . Here's a story " Mad Brother backs his Trainer Brother to win a Zillion "All it would have cost me was $500. to promote our wonderful racing. Which I've done for 35 years. Fleur could never have won all three Hastings events, No horse has done it. But I wanted the Wider public to know what the event was about. Sad that special all ups aren't given consideration. rdytdy 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
rdytdy 5,341 Report post Posted October 5, 2015 One mare nearly did.... twice. Sea Change 2006 & 2007 She won the first two legs in 2006 only to run third in the last leg, beaten by Legs. Margin three quarters of a length and half a head. Again in 2007 she won the first two legs and in the last leg finishing fourth, a half head and a nose and nose from the winner Princess Coup. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
TOM(the other Molloy) 1,774 Report post Posted October 5, 2015 I know I am preaching to the converted here but VSB was no more or less likely to win the Cox Plate ten minutes before the Turnbull than ten minutes after. If they think he is possibly going to win it whack his odds back and let someone all up him to do the double I could have taken Preferment(or something else)in the Turnbull with VSB in the Cox Plate, had VSB fall out of the gates and run a slashing and unlucky second, be promptly promoted up the markets for the Cox Plate and they would be quite happy to take my dosh. At the end of the day it would have been a mug's bet(I will freely admit I am a mug punter) but by refusing to accept it they seem to be telling me that I am not the mug. I might add it was only ten bucks but I fancied him to return to form yesterday. Disappointing for Team Logan and co that he is not quite the horse he was this prep. Hopefully back to right handed in the Autumn he shows his true ability again Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gruff 2,798 Report post Posted October 5, 2015 Targetted the wrong races? Surely the stable had crunched the data,might be a weak link in the team Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
TOM(the other Molloy) 1,774 Report post Posted October 5, 2015 Targetted the wrong races? Surely the stable had crunched the data,might be a weak link in the team Given his record I do not think that they were unreasonably optimistic in heading for the big spring events. Preferment was all around VSB and MK in the Autumn and he has gone on. Mongolian Khan could well win one of the big Cups. VSB simply has not come up as well as he might this time in my view Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
lecithin 429 Report post Posted October 5, 2015 (edited) I know I am preaching to the converted here but VSB was no more or less likely to win the Cox Plate ten minutes before the Turnbull than ten minutes after. While you could argue that the chances of VSB winning the Cox Plate were unlikely to significantly change after the Turnbull run, that's only half the story. That's because no one knows the chances of him winning the Cox Plate either before, or after, the Turnbull. However, after the Turnbull there is more "information" available to punters and bookmakers and that enables people to more accurately estimate his chances of winning the Cox Plate. Hence while you could argue that the chance of him winning the Cox Plate don't change whether he wins or runs last in the Turnbull, what certainly does change is the accuracy of the estimate of his chances, which is what the odds are based on. If VSB won the Turnbull clearly his odds for the Cox Plate would shorten significantly so the two events are closely related, not because he's actually any more likely to win the Cox Plate if he wins the Turnbull, but because, with the additional information available (being the Turnbull result) the market consensus of his chances and hence odds in the Cox Plate can be more accurately determined. If you're taking a double where the odds of the second leg will almost certainly be shorter if the first leg wins, that's not really fair. Edited October 5, 2015 by lecithin Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Donovan 48 Report post Posted October 5, 2015 That is a very good answer Lecithin, in mathematical probability terms, given that a is true, what is the probability of b. Not wishing to be too repetitive, though the bookies ( I use that in the very broadest meaning of the word as far as NZ goes) will be offering higher odds on almost all of those horses who finish down the track behind our horse who won, in fact several of those horses may be withdrawn from event b. All of that benefit accrues to the bookie. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
lecithin 429 Report post Posted October 5, 2015 That is a very good answer Lecithin, in mathematical probability terms, given that a is true, what is the probability of b. Not wishing to be too repetitive, though the bookies ( I use that in the very broadest meaning of the word as far as NZ goes) will be offering higher odds on almost all of those horses who finish down the track behind our horse who won, in fact several of those horses may be withdrawn from event b. All of that benefit accrues to the bookie. Yes, you're right that if you take a different horse in 2 legs of a feature race double and both horses were running in both legs, all things being equal, it would be reasonable to expect slightly higher than the multiplied odds. However, we're talking about "bookmakers" here so they are more than happy to lay bets at lower odds than what they should be, but they aren't the slightest bit interested in laying bets at over the true odds, which is why they generally don't allow same horse doubles at multiplied odds. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaneMcAlister 1,425 Report post Posted October 6, 2015 They are not mutually exclusive. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
N1MUE 1,877 Report post Posted October 6, 2015 Yes, you're right that if you take a different horse in 2 legs of a feature race double and both horses were running in both legs, all things being equal, it would be reasonable to expect slightly higher than the multiplied odds. When they sell you the bet they can't know for sure that the horse you have in the second leg will have run in the first leg, so can't in my opinion be expected to offer enhanced odds. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Portfolio 728 Report post Posted October 6, 2015 No problem to multi up horses in Aus.....only the tab have a problem...... Mind you....I got an email from the tab today......and in the morning they will show us all the fantastic changes they have made to their multi site???? I can hardly wait? THE TORCH 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gruff 2,798 Report post Posted October 6, 2015 I hear through the Grapevine they were offering 110-1 for jameka in the crown oaks yesterday,did they know something others were not privy to trying to milk the speculators thinking they had made an error?....notice 11-1 today ...whoops Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
