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Swynford's Challenge PremierSelections

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"You have chosen to compare your selection technique with the leading buyer, the leading vendor and yourself "

No Berri , Swynford added these comparisons as "extras". The original comparison of his selections vs the top 15 in the sale still stands and that is what he did at the start of his update.

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What a split of words, and I'm not picking over bones. The reason Swynford used the other two lists of stats (leading vendor and leading buyer) was that he was trying to demonstrate that his selections cost much less than those and therefore his success was better than those two groups. That was not the point because this exercise started using a statistical comparison between Swynford's breeding selections versus various stallion statistics. The whole argument was that Swynford could out perform the norm due to his advanced breeding pattern theory. That was my challenge....namely put forward a bunch of yearlings selected on breeding and see whether he could out perform some more conventional selection processes.

Quite clearly, this has not yet happened but to be sure let's wait till the end of next season for the final result.

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Berri ,  this isn't your challenge, this is Swynford's Challenge . I made the rules, and I'm sorry everything counts.  

What has happened to your challenge I haven't seen any updates ?

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Who's writing the previous post? 

Look....I don't care for the semantics....I certainly don't want to split words...if you have a look at all the previous threads/ posts/ discussions on this matter, it was all about the theory of predictably when selecting horse based on pedigrees. 

Swynford has a theory based on some sort of cross pattern. I interrogated Swynford on this thinking I could be taught the theory. I couldn't and that provoked me to issue a challenge, this being that everyone nominates 15 yearlings (obviously including Swynford) and let's see what the results are. Swynford posted his, as did others and I will take the time to update these selections and results now that I have been prompted. 

I too have made a list, and although it may seem a cop out, I cannot reveal my selections until they are after 4 years old. My selections are based on physiological parameters and in many instances the allowance to obtain the data was done so in confidence. I did though give the list to a lawyer for certification when the results are released. I was/ still am interested in completing the exercise with no bias to ensure the results are able to be properly benchmarked.

all Swynford has done at the commencement of this thread is supply his selections ( my original challenge) and he has benchmarked them against three criteria of his choosing, namely the top 15 prices of the sale, the same for the leading buyer and vendor. For an interest factor, I applaud this comparison.

what it has demonstrated to date is that if you purchased all the yearlings in those groups, and Swynford 's yearlings, you would have bought 1 stakes winner in each group. ....which are odds of 1 in 15, or 6.5 percent.

From memory the original discussion included the merits of Tavistock 's success, where if you had bought all his first stock yearlings, you'd have bought 7 stakes winners and 11 stakes place getters from 56 yearlings sold. This of course included 2 Derby winners and a weight for age champ. This could be another bench mark group.

So to the original challenge, is Swynford's breeding theory valid? Let's wait another year.

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Stumbled across this thread, so felt it was due for an update as we progress through their 4yo season - will return to it once the season is over.

Of Swynford's 15, 7 have won (4 of them are multiple race winners). Three times Group 1 placegetter Savile Row is the only one (so far) to be showing a profit.

 

Lot 14   C  All American - Klairevoyant    passed   $50,000
Unnamed - yet to race

Lot 83   F  Redoute's Choice - Mygoodgrace    $340,000
My Grace - 13:4-1-1 AU$61.9K

Lot 93   F  Stravinsky - Obey   passed   $100,000  
Zabay - 15:1-2-0 $12,175

Lot 106  C  Fastnet Rock - Pampurr    $200,000
Two Strikes - yet to race

Lot 125  F  Stravinsky - Pride of Tralee    $180,000
Crystal Fountain - 7:4-0-1 AU$101K (won its first four starts)

Lot 143  C  Iffraaj - Riesling    $70,000
Prince Hareem - Beauty Miles (H.K.) - 4:2-2-0 $22,750

Lot 156  C  Authorized - Sandie    $170,000
Newton - 7:1-1-1 $10,650

Lot 167  C  Jimmy Choux - Seven Schillings  $150,000
Heptagon - 3:1-0-1 AU$14.5K

Lot 200  F  Commands - Valpolicella    $325,000
Packing Heat - 4:0-0-0 AU$800

Lot 227  C  Redoute's Choice - Volkrose  $180,000
Unnamed - yet to race

Lot 234  C  Northern Meteor - Wit Beyond Measure  $260,000
Unnamed - yet to race

Lot 323  C  Snitzel - Copita   $200,000
Ninety Ninety - yet to race

Lot 327  F  Rip Van Winkle - Cramoisy  $50,000
Winkle Dancer - 5:0-1-0 $2,350

Lot 372  C  Fastnet Rock - Episode  $350,000
Klarik - 3:0-0-0 AU$825

Lot 391  F  Makfi - Fleece  $120,000
Savile Row - 11:2-3-1 $241,126 (G1 placed x3)

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15 Top priced lots from Karaka  2015 Premier Yearling Sale

Regency Bo Bo racing in Hong Kong the only one showing a profit thus far.

Lot 429  F   Fastnet Rock  - Il Quello Veloce              $800,000
Il Piu Veloce   --               yet to race                                  ..........

 

Lot 340  C  Fastnet Rock - Dance on By                    $600,000
Rock and Swing              7:  1 - 0- 1                          AU$52,275

 

Lot 251 F   High Chaparral  -  Alma Star                   $500,000
Not To Be Caught          9:  0 - 2- 1                                 A27,815  

 

Lot 37  F   More Than Ready - Lovetrista                  $450,000
Attenborough                5:   1 - 0 - 0                            AU19,450    

 

Lot 36   F  Cape Blanco  -  Love Diamonds               $450,000
Diamaint                       3      0-   0   -0                             ............

 

Lot 436    C  Savabeel- Invermoray                            $420,000
........              yet to race Hong Kong                            ...........

 

 Lot 287 C  So You Think - Better Alternative          $420,000
Angelucci                 10        3 - 1 - 0                          AU 33,000   

 

Lot 47   F  O'Reilly - Make A Wish                              $400,000
Twenty One Times     5:   1-    1    -0                               8,600

 

Lot 58  C  Snitzel - Mini Tales                                    $400,000
Epic Tales                     6: 0-0-1                                         1,125

 

Lot 85 C   Fastnet Rock Myrrh                                   $400,000
Heroic Valour              14:    4- 4- 3                               332,960 

 

 Lot 216  C Denman - Tsukioka                                 $400,000
Regency Bo Bo     16:  3-6-1                             HK   3,688,950    ($NZ 685, 479)

 

Lot 249    C  Fastnet Rock Allez France                  $400,000 
Rocket Go .........yet to race       Hong Kong         ..............

 

Lot 367   C   Savabeel Eloa                                        $400,000       
Reach For Heaven            11 3 - 1 - 3                          $91,590 

 

Lot 374   F  O'Reilly - Etoile Du Nord                         $400,000
Libretto         .       yet to race.........

 

Lot 435    F  More Than Ready - Insouciant            $400,000
Paris            4  0-1-1                                                      $A6,575


 

 

 

 

   

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15 of the top priced lots brought by leading buyer Premier Yearling Sale 2015

The first two on the list the only ones to be showing a profit at the moment

NZ $ unless stated

,Lot 355     Draci Brahma - Distinctive Lass .... DISTINCTIVE DARCI   purchase price     $100,000
16:  6 - 5 - 0                                                                                                     earnings                $480,221   (Singapore $446,016)

lot 258     Darci Brahma - Amaryllis                     JUSTICE LIGHT                                         $120,000
9:  3 - 0 - 1                                                                                                                                       $138,782    (Singapore $124,253)

Lot 85     Fastnet Rock Myrrh                               HEROIC VALOUR                                        $400,000
14:  4 - 4 - 3                                                                                                                                    $332,969

Lot 252     Savabeel - Almaviva                            BEAUMARCHAIS                                       $160,000
12:  2 - 1 - 2                                                                                                                                      $64,425

Lot 182     O'Reilly - Starbelly                                O'REILLY'S STAR                                      $120,000
8:  0 - 1 - 1                                                                                                                                      $31,752      (Singapore $29,474) 

Lot 269     Rip Van Winkle - Bak Da Princess     HONOR                                                        $80,000
9:  1 - 0  -  0                                                                                                                                    $23,099        (Singapore $21,442)

Lot 6     Savabeel - Kay's Awake                          WIDE AWAKE                                            $150,000
10:  2 - 2 - 2                                                                                                                                    $19,200

Lot 59     Zacinto - Miss Avalon                             ZAVASTIC                                              $100,000
8:  1 - 1 - 5                                                                                                                                     $13,050 

Lot 325     Smart Missile - Corporate                   CORPORATE MISSILE                           $150,000
12:  1 - 0 - 1                                                                                                                                     $6,775

Lot 186     Savabeel - Steal                                    STOLEN LOVE                                           $80,000
7:  0 - 0 - 1                                                                                                                                       $1,525

Lot 58     Snitzel - Mini Tales                                 EPIC TALE                                                 $400,000 
6:  0 - 0 - 0                                                                                                                                         $1,125

Lot 95     Fastnet Rock - Ocean Pearl                  OCEAN ROCK                                            $220,000
2:  0 - 0 - 1                                                                                                                                         $1,050

Lot 31    Savabeel - Legs                                       LUCY WILDSTYLE                                     $200,000
4:  0 - 0 - 0                                                                                                                                            $250 

Lot 171    No Excuse Needed - Singing Star      WINEHOUSE                                               $100,000
2:  0 - 0 - 0                                                                                                                                          ..........   

Lot 429     Fastnet Rock - Il Quello Veloce          IL PIU VELOCE                                            $800,000
yet to race                                                                                                                                           ..........

 

 

 

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15 of the top priced lots from leading VENDOR Premier Yearling Sale 2015

So far only one horse Sacred Ibis in profit

Lot 392     O'Reilly - Flutter                                   SACRED IBIS                            $160,000
2:  1 - 0 - 0                                                                                                                  $186,434        (HK$1,003,200)

Lot  124     Savabeel - Prickle                               LINCOLN BLUE                       $220,000
11:  3 - 3 - 2                                                                                                                $113,350

Lot 85     Savabeel - Natural Rhythm                   SHIELD WALL                         $260,000
14:  2 - 4 - 3                                                                                                                  $87,929

Lot 38     Pins - Lowland                                       CROSS STITCH                      $160,000
10:  1 - 2 - 2                                                                                                                 $85, 304

Lot 340     Fastnet Rock - Dance on By             ROCK AND SWING                 $600,000
7:  1 - 0 - 1                                                                                                                   $57,550

Lot 123     O'Reilly - Pretty                                    DAHOOIL                                $340,000 
5:  1 - 1 - 1                                                                                                                   $40,843

Lot 78     Savabeel - More To Love                     SAVE THE DATE                      300,000
9:  3 - 2 - 1                                                                                                                  $35,535

Lot 315     Pins - Charlotte Revenge                  DORMOCH                               $230,000
11:  2 - 1 - 3                                                                                                                $37,974

Lot 404     Savabeel - Girls on Top                     GOLD VELVET                         $260,000
9:  0 - 1 - 0                                                                                                                   $26,983  (HK$145,200)

Lot 47     O'Reilly - Make A Wish                         TWENTY ONE TIMES             $400,000
5: 1 - 1 - 0                                                                                                                      $8600

Lot 16     Savabeel - Kowtow                              FAWN                                         $250,000
2:  1 - 0 - 0                                                                                                                      $6,250

Lot 128     O'Reilly - Promenade                         BOOMERANG                           $160,000
2:  0 - 1 - 0                                                                                                                       $1750

Lot 31    Savabeel - Lego                                    LUCY WILDSTYLE                   $200,000
4:  0 - 0 - 0                                                                                                                        $250

Lot 374     O'Reilly Etoile Du Nord                     LIBRETTO                                 $400,000
yet to race   .                                                                                                                           0            

Lot 33     O'Reilly Lightning Star     ..........                                                            $260,000
yet to race     .                                                                                                                         0

 

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On 12/3/2017 at 8:53 PM, Berri said:

Oh dear...

Berri.. I am wondering if you are have the balls to front up to NZ Bloodstock,  also our leading buyer,   and vendor with this  ..'oh dear'     statement.   I'm sure they would be pleased to see you. 

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1 hour ago, Swynford said:

Berri.. I am wondering if you are have the balls to front up to NZ Bloodstock,  also our leading buyer,   and vendor with this  ..'oh dear'     statement.   I'm sure they would be pleased to see you. 

NZRB are always pleased to see me. They know that whenever I approach the ring something is about to happen with my crew. Someone is going to make a bit more than they were before and NZRB know that their commissions will increase. My "Oh dear" comment was pretty indicative of your selection results which I actually thought would be better considering that you had 15 choices. I didn't understand your breeding theories because they didn't make sense to me and your description of the principle kept changing.

I didn't make 15 selections, I made 3 and although not yet published, when I do so there will be a Lawyers warrant that they were made at the time of the competition and sealed. He holds the selection document. I've got two months to go before I can do this. At the same time I will also be tabulating everyone else's selections and we'll see where we are.

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It has been a very interesting exercise for me and I put myself up against what is supposed to be considered the best in the industry as I believed I could hold my own against them.

I have not lost faith in that.   ( competing against you Berri doesn't interest me one bit) this is a breeding forum,  you don't even breed horses.

I am a little disappointed with my results so far but I guess the race is still only half run.   There is very little between myself   'the breeder of the decade'  the cream of the Premier crop and a guy who has reportedly spent $60 Million buying yearlings at the sales and receives awards for his efforts.  They are all disappointing results (thus far) .

I think we all share the same vision or goal, and that is to obtain a Group One winner,  I came close with Saville Row and who knows it could still happen with one of the others.   

And of course the other big factor and that is cost.  We are told that Karaka is  'where winning begins "  but with only 5 horses in total from all of the groups making a profit in the two years since that sale,  I can think of other terms   (three of those in Singapore, one in Hong Kong,  Saville Row the only one to make PROFIT in New Zealand or Australia. 

I stick by my selections, and I look for improvement in them, but who knows maybe my theories don't work at Karaka,   

I will add that I do not go to Karaka  with either my own money, or my clients money looking for that Group One winner.  

I am a breeder and will show you 'my creations' and how we go about obtaining a Group one winner.

 

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We (Chouxmaani Investments ) and myself hunt for the 'right mare'' as first priority. ( and I think this is why you and I Berri don't get on, you come across as a real stallion and nothing but the stallion person)     Jimmy Choux was created this way.  His dam was brought for $2500.   Thorn Park's service fee from memory was only about  $12K. And they were matched using my software and input.    Richard loved Bletchingly and I pinpointed the best position in a stallion to tap into it.  There is a full sister that didn't really fire but $3.6 million still leaves a lot of profit in that.

Tomorrow Miss Wilson from the same mare will be attempting Group One (she is already a Group Three winner twice and Group Two placed and 4th at Group One level) Very few mares produce two stakes winners. 

Some one else on the forum will know better but my guess Miss Wilson as a brood-mare is probably worth at least half a million.  Maybe more.  The dam of both her and Jimmy already on sold for similar figure.   

People say to Richard  'you are a lucky bugger ' and he laughs at them.  This is the latest horse that we  'created" using my software and breeding theories. 

To my mind a much cheaper and lower risk option than paying mega bucks at Karaka.  

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Swynford- I do largely understand your breeding theories and you have provided plenty of examples of good horses with that have these pedigree patterns to make me think there is probably something to it.

I understand that you like to have at least 2 suitable duplications in a pedigree to feel confident about it.  You’ve noted the  Bletchingly duplication, but can you please explain what else you liked in the Jimmy Choux pedigree?

Apologies if you’ve already explained your thoughts re the Jimmy Choux pedigree somewhere else,

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3 hours ago, Swynford said:

It has been a very interesting exercise for me and I put myself up against what is supposed to be considered the best in the industry as I believed I could hold my own against them.

I have not lost faith in that.   ( competing against you Berri doesn't interest me one bit) this is a breeding forum,  you don't even breed horses.

I am a little disappointed with my results so far but I guess the race is still only half run.  

I stick by my selections, and I look for improvement in them, but who knows maybe my theories don't work at Karaka,   

 

 

Rubbish again. The problem that I have is that the facts don't gel. I am a breeder but only because I'm very interested in the outcome of the data that I gather. If I consider a filly is top class on data, but gets wrecked by a trainer, then I've been interested to see what they breed when I choose the stallions and matings. The reason I do the mating stuff is that I have the data of yearlings by stallions that haven't yet had runners that we consider to be good. An example of this is a Cape Cross mare that I own in France. She fractured vertebrae when being broken in and couldn't race. First year sent her to Siyouni (5k service), then Wotten Basset (4K) then The Wow Signal (5k) and now in foal to Dabrism (6k)

Weve made approx 300k so far

I've also received 12k in breeders premiums.

ive also played a part in the breeding of 9 group one winners. This can be certified. It not a skite sheet...just a rebuke to Swynford

In respect of whether you breed or select horses based on breeding....a cop out. There are group one winners at every sale so the question is whether they can be identified. Swynford obviously has no advantage over anyone that he has identified in the industry. Not my choice...solely his.

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On 12/8/2017 at 4:36 PM, Sleepy said:

Swynford- I do largely understand your breeding theories and you have provided plenty of examples of good horses with that have these pedigree patterns to make me think there is probably something to it.

I understand that you like to have at least 2 suitable duplications in a pedigree to feel confident about it.  You’ve noted the  Bletchingly duplication, but can you please explain what else you liked in the Jimmy Choux pedigree?

Apologies if you’ve already explained your thoughts re the Jimmy Choux pedigree somewhere else,

Thanks Sleepy,  glad you are getting something out of it, and yes I do like more than one pattern. There was about four with Jimmy, the first being the position of  Bletchingly being the main one, I think the brood-mare sires in any stallions female line are very easy to tap into and will give you more bang for your buck.  

There is a connection between mares from the Century male line (Veyron was out of a Centro mare) but too complicated to explain and probably meaningless to most any way.  

Richard has always loved Imposing in a pedigree and has served him well.  

Another pattern is on the 'male line' of the dams lower in the pedigree and questionable whether it had any effect but it appears in these positions in some world class race horses both from the Nearctic male line and another which is almost gone and that is with stallions from the Star Kingdom line.

Chouxmanni have always paid me for advice so wrong for me to turn around and give the same away here.   I enjoy sharing knowledge, we can learn either 'how to'  or perhaps 'how not to' from each other but I'm also a bit little like Kenny Rodgers... "on warm summer's evening on a train bound for ......" where ever he was going.....

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13 hours ago, Sleepy said:

I don’t understand the Kenny Rogers reference but it’s always good to see him mentioned.

Thanks

have you never heard the song The Gambler

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On 12/8/2017 at 5:26 PM, Berri said:

In respect of whether you breed or select horses based on breeding....a cop out. There are group one winners at every sale so the question is whether they can be identified. Swynford obviously has no advantage over anyone that he has identified in the industry. Not my choice...solely his.

Berri... there has only been 4 Group One winners come from this sale.... so on average you would have to look inside 100 boxes to find One.

If you add horses that ran either 2nd or 3rd in Group One races there was only another 4 of these.  So if you were looking for a Group One winner/performer that year there was one, on average in every 50th box. 

The 400 horses that sold are by the best stallions and out of the best mares New Zealand can offer and each yearling was scrutinised by any number of experts before selection to make sure they didn't waddle etc.

One   in 100  or even One  in 50 is not impressive.  Maybe more will turn up.

Using my theories I found One inside 15 .       And I never left my desk.  

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So now we're getting down to the nitty gritty, namely the industry statistics. Approx 2 percent of the foals born are group one winners. So your quote of group one success from the sale is the norm. And to be accurate, the leading buyer bought a group one winner where your best is thus far only group one placed. Big difference in this exposed world of equine competition. 

Can you now see why a stallion like Tavistock is such a rare commodity when his stock perform the way they do from just ok mares?

of interest, based on the data that I have, 85 percent of all the good horses bred ( the physiological gems) are wrecked to some degree by humans during their educational process. So for completeness, what we should do Swynford, is get you to make 15 new selections for this years yearling sales, as we should for everyone else wanting to join in, and then I will endeavour to obtain all the physiological data from them all, and then we can track them all the way forward. So in four years time we will all have a giggle after being entertained for three years watching our selections.

BTW I will be able to show you some interesting results fairly shortly 

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