Breeder 599 Report post Posted May 5, 2017 "You have chosen to compare your selection technique with the leading buyer, the leading vendor and yourself " No Berri , Swynford added these comparisons as "extras". The original comparison of his selections vs the top 15 in the sale still stands and that is what he did at the start of his update. Swynford 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Berri 2,131 Report post Posted May 8, 2017 What a split of words, and I'm not picking over bones. The reason Swynford used the other two lists of stats (leading vendor and leading buyer) was that he was trying to demonstrate that his selections cost much less than those and therefore his success was better than those two groups. That was not the point because this exercise started using a statistical comparison between Swynford's breeding selections versus various stallion statistics. The whole argument was that Swynford could out perform the norm due to his advanced breeding pattern theory. That was my challenge....namely put forward a bunch of yearlings selected on breeding and see whether he could out perform some more conventional selection processes. Quite clearly, this has not yet happened but to be sure let's wait till the end of next season for the final result. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swynford 121 Report post Posted May 8, 2017 Berri , this isn't your challenge, this is Swynford's Challenge . I made the rules, and I'm sorry everything counts. What has happened to your challenge I haven't seen any updates ? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Berri 2,131 Report post Posted May 8, 2017 Who's writing the previous post? Look....I don't care for the semantics....I certainly don't want to split words...if you have a look at all the previous threads/ posts/ discussions on this matter, it was all about the theory of predictably when selecting horse based on pedigrees. Swynford has a theory based on some sort of cross pattern. I interrogated Swynford on this thinking I could be taught the theory. I couldn't and that provoked me to issue a challenge, this being that everyone nominates 15 yearlings (obviously including Swynford) and let's see what the results are. Swynford posted his, as did others and I will take the time to update these selections and results now that I have been prompted. I too have made a list, and although it may seem a cop out, I cannot reveal my selections until they are after 4 years old. My selections are based on physiological parameters and in many instances the allowance to obtain the data was done so in confidence. I did though give the list to a lawyer for certification when the results are released. I was/ still am interested in completing the exercise with no bias to ensure the results are able to be properly benchmarked. all Swynford has done at the commencement of this thread is supply his selections ( my original challenge) and he has benchmarked them against three criteria of his choosing, namely the top 15 prices of the sale, the same for the leading buyer and vendor. For an interest factor, I applaud this comparison. what it has demonstrated to date is that if you purchased all the yearlings in those groups, and Swynford 's yearlings, you would have bought 1 stakes winner in each group. ....which are odds of 1 in 15, or 6.5 percent. From memory the original discussion included the merits of Tavistock 's success, where if you had bought all his first stock yearlings, you'd have bought 7 stakes winners and 11 stakes place getters from 56 yearlings sold. This of course included 2 Derby winners and a weight for age champ. This could be another bench mark group. So to the original challenge, is Swynford's breeding theory valid? Let's wait another year. Lloyd Vivian 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
skelly 53 Report post Posted December 3, 2017 Stumbled across this thread, so felt it was due for an update as we progress through their 4yo season - will return to it once the season is over. Of Swynford's 15, 7 have won (4 of them are multiple race winners). Three times Group 1 placegetter Savile Row is the only one (so far) to be showing a profit. Lot 14 C All American - Klairevoyant passed $50,000 Unnamed - yet to race Lot 83 F Redoute's Choice - Mygoodgrace $340,000 My Grace - 13:4-1-1 AU$61.9K Lot 93 F Stravinsky - Obey passed $100,000 Zabay - 15:1-2-0 $12,175 Lot 106 C Fastnet Rock - Pampurr $200,000 Two Strikes - yet to race Lot 125 F Stravinsky - Pride of Tralee $180,000 Crystal Fountain - 7:4-0-1 AU$101K (won its first four starts) Lot 143 C Iffraaj - Riesling $70,000 Prince Hareem - Beauty Miles (H.K.) - 4:2-2-0 $22,750 Lot 156 C Authorized - Sandie $170,000 Newton - 7:1-1-1 $10,650 Lot 167 C Jimmy Choux - Seven Schillings $150,000 Heptagon - 3:1-0-1 AU$14.5K Lot 200 F Commands - Valpolicella $325,000 Packing Heat - 4:0-0-0 AU$800 Lot 227 C Redoute's Choice - Volkrose $180,000 Unnamed - yet to race Lot 234 C Northern Meteor - Wit Beyond Measure $260,000 Unnamed - yet to race Lot 323 C Snitzel - Copita $200,000 Ninety Ninety - yet to race Lot 327 F Rip Van Winkle - Cramoisy $50,000 Winkle Dancer - 5:0-1-0 $2,350 Lot 372 C Fastnet Rock - Episode $350,000 Klarik - 3:0-0-0 AU$825 Lot 391 F Makfi - Fleece $120,000 Savile Row - 11:2-3-1 $241,126 (G1 placed x3) Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Berri 2,131 Report post Posted December 3, 2017 Oh dear... Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swynford 121 Report post Posted December 6, 2017 15 Top priced lots from Karaka 2015 Premier Yearling Sale Regency Bo Bo racing in Hong Kong the only one showing a profit thus far. Lot 429 F Fastnet Rock - Il Quello Veloce $800,000Il Piu Veloce -- yet to race .......... Lot 340 C Fastnet Rock - Dance on By $600,000Rock and Swing 7: 1 - 0- 1 AU$52,275 Lot 251 F High Chaparral - Alma Star $500,000Not To Be Caught 9: 0 - 2- 1 A27,815 Lot 37 F More Than Ready - Lovetrista $450,000Attenborough 5: 1 - 0 - 0 AU19,450 Lot 36 F Cape Blanco - Love Diamonds $450,000Diamaint 3 0- 0 -0 ............ Lot 436 C Savabeel- Invermoray $420,000 ........ yet to race Hong Kong ........... Lot 287 C So You Think - Better Alternative $420,000Angelucci 10 3 - 1 - 0 AU 33,000 Lot 47 F O'Reilly - Make A Wish $400,000Twenty One Times 5: 1- 1 -0 8,600 Lot 58 C Snitzel - Mini Tales $400,000Epic Tales 6: 0-0-1 1,125 Lot 85 C Fastnet Rock Myrrh $400,000Heroic Valour 14: 4- 4- 3 332,960 Lot 216 C Denman - Tsukioka $400,000Regency Bo Bo 16: 3-6-1 HK 3,688,950 ($NZ 685, 479) Lot 249 C Fastnet Rock Allez France $400,000 Rocket Go .........yet to race Hong Kong .............. Lot 367 C Savabeel Eloa $400,000 Reach For Heaven 11 3 - 1 - 3 $91,590 Lot 374 F O'Reilly - Etoile Du Nord $400,000Libretto . yet to race......... Lot 435 F More Than Ready - Insouciant $400,000Paris 4 0-1-1 $A6,575 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swynford 121 Report post Posted December 7, 2017 15 of the top priced lots brought by leading buyer Premier Yearling Sale 2015 The first two on the list the only ones to be showing a profit at the moment NZ $ unless stated ,Lot 355 Draci Brahma - Distinctive Lass .... DISTINCTIVE DARCI purchase price $100,000 16: 6 - 5 - 0 earnings $480,221 (Singapore $446,016) lot 258 Darci Brahma - Amaryllis JUSTICE LIGHT $120,000 9: 3 - 0 - 1 $138,782 (Singapore $124,253) Lot 85 Fastnet Rock Myrrh HEROIC VALOUR $400,000 14: 4 - 4 - 3 $332,969 Lot 252 Savabeel - Almaviva BEAUMARCHAIS $160,000 12: 2 - 1 - 2 $64,425 Lot 182 O'Reilly - Starbelly O'REILLY'S STAR $120,000 8: 0 - 1 - 1 $31,752 (Singapore $29,474) Lot 269 Rip Van Winkle - Bak Da Princess HONOR $80,000 9: 1 - 0 - 0 $23,099 (Singapore $21,442) Lot 6 Savabeel - Kay's Awake WIDE AWAKE $150,000 10: 2 - 2 - 2 $19,200 Lot 59 Zacinto - Miss Avalon ZAVASTIC $100,000 8: 1 - 1 - 5 $13,050 Lot 325 Smart Missile - Corporate CORPORATE MISSILE $150,000 12: 1 - 0 - 1 $6,775 Lot 186 Savabeel - Steal STOLEN LOVE $80,000 7: 0 - 0 - 1 $1,525 Lot 58 Snitzel - Mini Tales EPIC TALE $400,000 6: 0 - 0 - 0 $1,125 Lot 95 Fastnet Rock - Ocean Pearl OCEAN ROCK $220,000 2: 0 - 0 - 1 $1,050 Lot 31 Savabeel - Legs LUCY WILDSTYLE $200,000 4: 0 - 0 - 0 $250 Lot 171 No Excuse Needed - Singing Star WINEHOUSE $100,000 2: 0 - 0 - 0 .......... Lot 429 Fastnet Rock - Il Quello Veloce IL PIU VELOCE $800,000 yet to race .......... Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swynford 121 Report post Posted December 7, 2017 15 of the top priced lots from leading VENDOR Premier Yearling Sale 2015 So far only one horse Sacred Ibis in profit Lot 392 O'Reilly - Flutter SACRED IBIS $160,000 2: 1 - 0 - 0 $186,434 (HK$1,003,200) Lot 124 Savabeel - Prickle LINCOLN BLUE $220,000 11: 3 - 3 - 2 $113,350 Lot 85 Savabeel - Natural Rhythm SHIELD WALL $260,000 14: 2 - 4 - 3 $87,929 Lot 38 Pins - Lowland CROSS STITCH $160,000 10: 1 - 2 - 2 $85, 304 Lot 340 Fastnet Rock - Dance on By ROCK AND SWING $600,000 7: 1 - 0 - 1 $57,550 Lot 123 O'Reilly - Pretty DAHOOIL $340,000 5: 1 - 1 - 1 $40,843 Lot 78 Savabeel - More To Love SAVE THE DATE 300,000 9: 3 - 2 - 1 $35,535 Lot 315 Pins - Charlotte Revenge DORMOCH $230,000 11: 2 - 1 - 3 $37,974 Lot 404 Savabeel - Girls on Top GOLD VELVET $260,000 9: 0 - 1 - 0 $26,983 (HK$145,200) Lot 47 O'Reilly - Make A Wish TWENTY ONE TIMES $400,000 5: 1 - 1 - 0 $8600 Lot 16 Savabeel - Kowtow FAWN $250,000 2: 1 - 0 - 0 $6,250 Lot 128 O'Reilly - Promenade BOOMERANG $160,000 2: 0 - 1 - 0 $1750 Lot 31 Savabeel - Lego LUCY WILDSTYLE $200,000 4: 0 - 0 - 0 $250 Lot 374 O'Reilly Etoile Du Nord LIBRETTO $400,000 yet to race . 0 Lot 33 O'Reilly Lightning Star .......... $260,000 yet to race . 0 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swynford 121 Report post Posted December 7, 2017 On 12/3/2017 at 8:53 PM, Berri said: Oh dear... Berri.. I am wondering if you are have the balls to front up to NZ Bloodstock, also our leading buyer, and vendor with this ..'oh dear' statement. I'm sure they would be pleased to see you. Insider 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Insider 3,876 Report post Posted December 7, 2017 My new saying for yearling purchasing: FUCK IT"S LUCK! Liz Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Berri 2,131 Report post Posted December 7, 2017 1 hour ago, Swynford said: Berri.. I am wondering if you are have the balls to front up to NZ Bloodstock, also our leading buyer, and vendor with this ..'oh dear' statement. I'm sure they would be pleased to see you. NZRB are always pleased to see me. They know that whenever I approach the ring something is about to happen with my crew. Someone is going to make a bit more than they were before and NZRB know that their commissions will increase. My "Oh dear" comment was pretty indicative of your selection results which I actually thought would be better considering that you had 15 choices. I didn't understand your breeding theories because they didn't make sense to me and your description of the principle kept changing. I didn't make 15 selections, I made 3 and although not yet published, when I do so there will be a Lawyers warrant that they were made at the time of the competition and sealed. He holds the selection document. I've got two months to go before I can do this. At the same time I will also be tabulating everyone else's selections and we'll see where we are. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swynford 121 Report post Posted December 8, 2017 It has been a very interesting exercise for me and I put myself up against what is supposed to be considered the best in the industry as I believed I could hold my own against them. I have not lost faith in that. ( competing against you Berri doesn't interest me one bit) this is a breeding forum, you don't even breed horses. I am a little disappointed with my results so far but I guess the race is still only half run. There is very little between myself 'the breeder of the decade' the cream of the Premier crop and a guy who has reportedly spent $60 Million buying yearlings at the sales and receives awards for his efforts. They are all disappointing results (thus far) . I think we all share the same vision or goal, and that is to obtain a Group One winner, I came close with Saville Row and who knows it could still happen with one of the others. And of course the other big factor and that is cost. We are told that Karaka is 'where winning begins " but with only 5 horses in total from all of the groups making a profit in the two years since that sale, I can think of other terms (three of those in Singapore, one in Hong Kong, Saville Row the only one to make PROFIT in New Zealand or Australia. I stick by my selections, and I look for improvement in them, but who knows maybe my theories don't work at Karaka, I will add that I do not go to Karaka with either my own money, or my clients money looking for that Group One winner. I am a breeder and will show you 'my creations' and how we go about obtaining a Group one winner. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swynford 121 Report post Posted December 8, 2017 We (Chouxmaani Investments ) and myself hunt for the 'right mare'' as first priority. ( and I think this is why you and I Berri don't get on, you come across as a real stallion and nothing but the stallion person) Jimmy Choux was created this way. His dam was brought for $2500. Thorn Park's service fee from memory was only about $12K. And they were matched using my software and input. Richard loved Bletchingly and I pinpointed the best position in a stallion to tap into it. There is a full sister that didn't really fire but $3.6 million still leaves a lot of profit in that. Tomorrow Miss Wilson from the same mare will be attempting Group One (she is already a Group Three winner twice and Group Two placed and 4th at Group One level) Very few mares produce two stakes winners. Some one else on the forum will know better but my guess Miss Wilson as a brood-mare is probably worth at least half a million. Maybe more. The dam of both her and Jimmy already on sold for similar figure. People say to Richard 'you are a lucky bugger ' and he laughs at them. This is the latest horse that we 'created" using my software and breeding theories. To my mind a much cheaper and lower risk option than paying mega bucks at Karaka. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sleepy 5 Report post Posted December 8, 2017 Swynford- I do largely understand your breeding theories and you have provided plenty of examples of good horses with that have these pedigree patterns to make me think there is probably something to it. I understand that you like to have at least 2 suitable duplications in a pedigree to feel confident about it. You’ve noted the Bletchingly duplication, but can you please explain what else you liked in the Jimmy Choux pedigree? Apologies if you’ve already explained your thoughts re the Jimmy Choux pedigree somewhere else, Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Berri 2,131 Report post Posted December 8, 2017 3 hours ago, Swynford said: It has been a very interesting exercise for me and I put myself up against what is supposed to be considered the best in the industry as I believed I could hold my own against them. I have not lost faith in that. ( competing against you Berri doesn't interest me one bit) this is a breeding forum, you don't even breed horses. I am a little disappointed with my results so far but I guess the race is still only half run. I stick by my selections, and I look for improvement in them, but who knows maybe my theories don't work at Karaka, Rubbish again. The problem that I have is that the facts don't gel. I am a breeder but only because I'm very interested in the outcome of the data that I gather. If I consider a filly is top class on data, but gets wrecked by a trainer, then I've been interested to see what they breed when I choose the stallions and matings. The reason I do the mating stuff is that I have the data of yearlings by stallions that haven't yet had runners that we consider to be good. An example of this is a Cape Cross mare that I own in France. She fractured vertebrae when being broken in and couldn't race. First year sent her to Siyouni (5k service), then Wotten Basset (4K) then The Wow Signal (5k) and now in foal to Dabrism (6k) Weve made approx 300k so far I've also received 12k in breeders premiums. ive also played a part in the breeding of 9 group one winners. This can be certified. It not a skite sheet...just a rebuke to Swynford In respect of whether you breed or select horses based on breeding....a cop out. There are group one winners at every sale so the question is whether they can be identified. Swynford obviously has no advantage over anyone that he has identified in the industry. Not my choice...solely his. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swynford 121 Report post Posted December 10, 2017 On 12/8/2017 at 4:36 PM, Sleepy said: Swynford- I do largely understand your breeding theories and you have provided plenty of examples of good horses with that have these pedigree patterns to make me think there is probably something to it. I understand that you like to have at least 2 suitable duplications in a pedigree to feel confident about it. You’ve noted the Bletchingly duplication, but can you please explain what else you liked in the Jimmy Choux pedigree? Apologies if you’ve already explained your thoughts re the Jimmy Choux pedigree somewhere else, Thanks Sleepy, glad you are getting something out of it, and yes I do like more than one pattern. There was about four with Jimmy, the first being the position of Bletchingly being the main one, I think the brood-mare sires in any stallions female line are very easy to tap into and will give you more bang for your buck. There is a connection between mares from the Century male line (Veyron was out of a Centro mare) but too complicated to explain and probably meaningless to most any way. Richard has always loved Imposing in a pedigree and has served him well. Another pattern is on the 'male line' of the dams lower in the pedigree and questionable whether it had any effect but it appears in these positions in some world class race horses both from the Nearctic male line and another which is almost gone and that is with stallions from the Star Kingdom line. Chouxmanni have always paid me for advice so wrong for me to turn around and give the same away here. I enjoy sharing knowledge, we can learn either 'how to' or perhaps 'how not to' from each other but I'm also a bit little like Kenny Rodgers... "on warm summer's evening on a train bound for ......" where ever he was going..... Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sleepy 5 Report post Posted December 10, 2017 I don’t understand the Kenny Rogers reference but it’s always good to see him mentioned. Thanks Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swynford 121 Report post Posted December 10, 2017 13 hours ago, Sleepy said: I don’t understand the Kenny Rogers reference but it’s always good to see him mentioned. Thanks have you never heard the song The Gambler Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swynford 121 Report post Posted December 10, 2017 On 12/8/2017 at 5:26 PM, Berri said: In respect of whether you breed or select horses based on breeding....a cop out. There are group one winners at every sale so the question is whether they can be identified. Swynford obviously has no advantage over anyone that he has identified in the industry. Not my choice...solely his. Berri... there has only been 4 Group One winners come from this sale.... so on average you would have to look inside 100 boxes to find One. If you add horses that ran either 2nd or 3rd in Group One races there was only another 4 of these. So if you were looking for a Group One winner/performer that year there was one, on average in every 50th box. The 400 horses that sold are by the best stallions and out of the best mares New Zealand can offer and each yearling was scrutinised by any number of experts before selection to make sure they didn't waddle etc. One in 100 or even One in 50 is not impressive. Maybe more will turn up. Using my theories I found One inside 15 . And I never left my desk. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Berri 2,131 Report post Posted December 10, 2017 So now we're getting down to the nitty gritty, namely the industry statistics. Approx 2 percent of the foals born are group one winners. So your quote of group one success from the sale is the norm. And to be accurate, the leading buyer bought a group one winner where your best is thus far only group one placed. Big difference in this exposed world of equine competition. Can you now see why a stallion like Tavistock is such a rare commodity when his stock perform the way they do from just ok mares? of interest, based on the data that I have, 85 percent of all the good horses bred ( the physiological gems) are wrecked to some degree by humans during their educational process. So for completeness, what we should do Swynford, is get you to make 15 new selections for this years yearling sales, as we should for everyone else wanting to join in, and then I will endeavour to obtain all the physiological data from them all, and then we can track them all the way forward. So in four years time we will all have a giggle after being entertained for three years watching our selections. BTW I will be able to show you some interesting results fairly shortly Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swynford 121 Report post Posted December 11, 2017 How often does a stallion produce a Group One winner. ? Stallion Statistics curtsy of Arion Pedigrees.... Stallion Runners Grp 1 wnrs Frequency Zabeel 1524 46 1 in 33 Redoute's Choice 1256 32 1 .. 39 Tavistock 181 4 1 .. 45 Savabeel 693 15 1 .. 46 Fastnet Rock 1473 31 1 .. 47 Snitzel 777 12 1 ... 65 Darci Brahma 503 7 1 ... 71 Not A Single Doubt 728 8 1 .. 91 Group One winners so far from the 2015 Premier Sale (could be more coming) Bonneval Montoya's Secret Sacred Elixir Heroic Valour On average 1 in every 100 On 12/11/2017 at 8:14 AM, Berri said: Can you now see why a stallion like Tavistock is such a rare commodity when his stock perform the way they do from just ok mares? 3 out of 4 of Tavistock's Group One winners have Zabeel in their pedigree. Approx 2 per cent for the national foal crop becoming Group One winners may be the norm but Karaka Premier is not the norm. It is the elite of our foal crop. Although it is nearly three years since the 2015 Sale ...ONLY (approx) 30 horses... have won their purchase price back on the race track. Close to 95 % have not. Again this is constantly changing. Agree with you there is a difference in the racing world between a Group One winner and one who runs second, not so much in ability only 'fashion'. Huey 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...