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Swynford's Challenge PremierSelections

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For you Berri,

 

      I have selected these 15 from the Premier Sale using pedigree analysis and I'm happy to follow them and compare them against

  • The 15 top priced lots from the sale
  • The leading vendor's 15 top priced lots
  • The leading Buyers 15 top priced lots

Lot 14    C   All American / Klairevoyant    passed   $50,000

Lot 83    F   Redoute's Choice / Mygoodgrace    $340,000

Lot 93    F   Stravinsky / Obey   passed   $100,000  

Lot 106  C   Fastnet Rock / Pampurr    $200,000

Lot 125  F   Stravinsky -Pride of Tralee    $180,000

Lot 143  C   Iffraaj - Riesling    $70,000

Lot 156  C   Authorized - Sandie    $170,000

Lot 167  C   Jimmy Choux -Seven Schillings  $150,000

Lot 200  F   Commands  - Valpolicella    $325,000

Lot 227  C   Redoute's Choice - Volkrose  $180,000

Lot 234  C  Northern Meteor - Wit Beyond Measure  $260,000

Lot 323  C  Snitzel - Copita   $200,000

Lot 327  F  Rip Van Winkle - Cramoisy  $50,000

Lot 372  C  Fastnet Rock - Episode  $350,000

Lot 391  F  Makfi - Fleece  $120,000

 

The Rip Van Winkle filly is the only one I have seen in the flesh.

 

Total out lay               $2,745 Million    average $183,000 per Yearling

Top 15 top priced lots  $6,865 Million  average $475,000 per Yearling

 

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trakdap...

 

Swynford has put his methods "on the line".

Why don't you "spend" three million and put your choices up against his?

This also applies to all those who have expressed opinions on Swynford's breeding ideas and methodology.

I realise that a one-off occasion will not provide material evidence for any scientific conclusions...but it will be interesting and give us all a good deal of entertainment and enjoyment.

 

All the best.

Ashoka

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Ashoka,

 

I have put my butt on the line and have chosen 3 for a stakes winner so far and other  2 trial winners, so I don't think I have done too bad so far with only 3 choices. Why the hell would I need an xtra 12. They would only be costing me and not all of them would even get to the races. Go  Figure

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Reality Check.

 

Not only do you have 15 horses at a cost of 2.7mil.

 

You will have the agistment (I would hope you would have your own property)

Then the breaking in . average 2k per month per horse = 30k.

 

Training fees 3K per month per horse, now I know all 15 would not be in work at the same time.

 

Then half or more would be culls/write offs, you paid 180k per av.

It could be done cheaper, but you get what you pay for.

 

You get my drift

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trakdap

 

As Ashoka said, Swynford is responding as he said he would to a specific challenge from Berri --ie. separate to that one which you and I have responded to in the "2nd challenge"

 

I say well done to Swynford --it has taken quite a bit of work to put all the Premier yearlings into his program and assess the top 15. Lets just sit back and see how it goes. It will take a while but could be fun.

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Fun it could be,

But it is not in reality. This is a cyber game no more no less. More like a TV reality Show. I do not think this is what Berri was implying when he started all this.

I am a realist and this is a joke.

But good luck.

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trackdap...

 

The emphasis here is on picking successful racehorses through the use of breeding theories, strategy and intuition.

This is not a reality contest.

The reason I suggested that you spend around three million was to put your selections up against Swynford's based on roughly the same expenditure.

 

I apologise if you have taken offence at any of my comments. Most assuredly, none was intended.

As I have said, this is not a scientific experiment...it is hubristic and, given that it involves thoroughbred horses, the gods will determine who smiles and who cries...while the rest of us will keep our "told you so's" private...yeah, right... :) :) :)

 

All the best.

Ashoka

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I agree with Breeder, Swynford is responding to Berri.

It is a bit of fun.

Berri was asking Swynford to prove his theories and Swynford has given his 'sample' 

 

However certain challenges need to be simple to follow and check and not wait 3 years for the result to come in ( or longer!!).

 

I still believe my first and second season champion sires challenge is easier to monitor and provides quicker a result to compare.

 

Only flaw is that the first season sire numbers can be distorted with a Karaka Million winner plus is you combine Australia results the money over the ditch it makes the NZ winnings look pretty small.

 

But I believe Australian results should be included in my challenge to be fair.  

 

I think the key is like breeding there is a risk to an unproven stallion but clearly there can be upside or downside.

 

As a breeding discussion it is interesting on what bloggers on this site thought about a stallion before any progeny of a particular stallion were born and likewise before any progeny came out and produced stakes winning results or below average stakes winning results. 

 

This season gone has seen certain stallions whose progeny are ending there 2yo and 3 yo season look like they are and will be a success (Per Incanto and Tavistock), and other look like they are failures or will be below average (no need to name any of them as stats are on Arion Pedigrees).

 

There are many unproven stallions in New Zealand stallion ranks that will prove themselves over the next few years.

 

The breeding skill is choosing them.!

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Not a reality Show. Yeah Right, a real tuis. Seeing you want to play you have a go , I have and dont need to pick 15 or so to get what I require. Of course swynford would like what you write, it is what he sells.

Get real, do any of you own a racehorse and actually pay the bills?

Trying to sell snake oil is a pretty easy sell to some.

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On 5/3/2015 at 2:32 PM, Breeder said:

 

As Ashoka said,  Swynford is responding as he said he would to a specific challenge from Berri --ie. separate to that one which you and I have responded to in the "2nd challenge"

 

I say well done to Swynford --it has taken quite a bit of work to put all the Premier yearlings into his program and assess the top 15. Lets just sit back and see how it goes. It will take a while but could be fun.

Just an update on my selections,  15 selected   Only 8 named so far but all still 2 Year Olds      here's an opportunity that I will never get again so sorry folks going to take it    while I can, (I know it wont last ) only 1 raced  and he is a winner     Lot 167  by Jimmy Choux ex  Seven Schillings    named Heptagon  1 star 1 win  and quite impressive.

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On 5/3/2015 at 3:14 PM, Swynford said:

For you Berri,

 

      I have selected these 15 from the Premier Sale using pedigree analysis and I'm happy to follow them and compare them against

  • The 15 top priced lots from the sale
  • The leading vendor's 15 top priced lots
  • The leading Buyers 15 top priced lots

Lot 14    C   All American / Klairevoyant    passed   $50,000

Lot 83    F   Redoute's Choice / Mygoodgrace    $340,000

Lot 93    F   Stravinsky / Obey   passed   $100,000  

Lot 106  C   Fastnet Rock / Pampurr    $200,000

Lot 125  F   Stravinsky -Pride of Tralee    $180,000

Lot 143  C   Iffraaj - Riesling    $70,000

Lot 156  C   Authorized - Sandie    $170,000

Lot 167  C   Jimmy Choux -Seven Schillings  $150,000

Lot 200  F   Commands  - Valpolicella    $325,000

Lot 227  C   Redoute's Choice - Volkrose  $180,000

Lot 234  C  Northern Meteor - Wit Beyond Measure  $260,000

Lot 323  C  Snitzel - Copita   $200,000

Lot 327  F  Rip Van Winkle - Cramoisy  $50,000

Lot 372  C  Fastnet Rock - Episode  $350,000

Lot 391  F  Makfi - Fleece  $120,000

 

The Rip Van Winkle filly is the only one I have seen in the flesh.

 

Total out lay               $2,745 Million    average $183,000 per Yearling

Top 15 top priced lots  $6,865 Million  average $475,000 per Yearling

 

 

It's been two years since the above post so a great time to see if any rocket ships amongst the selections.

Lot         name                           Starts           Wins   2nd  3rd               Prize money $NZ

Lot 14     unnamed                      ......................................................................

Lot 83    MY GRACE                   10                2 --    1     --  1              $42,054

Lot 93     ZABAY                          9                 0  - -  2    -    0                  1,800

Lot 106   unnamed                       . .........................................................................

Lot 125  CRYSTAL FOUNTAIN   3                 3  --    0    -   0                 73,041

Lot 143   PRINCE HAREM           4                2   -    2 -       0                 22,700

LoT 156   NEWTON                     3                1        -1  -     0                  9,150

Lot 167    HEPTAGON                 2                1 --      0 --     0                 13,658

Lot 200   VINORULES                 5                0  --     2  --     0                  3750

Lot 227   unnamed                       .......................................................................

Lot 234   CLEESE                      5                 0       --0  --    1                    6640

Lot 323    unnamed                   1 trial 1 win

Lot 327    WINKLE DANCER      2                 0-      -0-       -0                     350

Lot 372   KLARIK                        3                0- -      0-       -0                     890

Lot 381   SAVILE ROW              8                 2-       -3-      -1                227,575

                                                   TOTAL                                              $401,608

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15 top priced lots Karaka Premier Yearling Sale 2015

 

Lot          Price      Sire                 Dam                           NAME                                        Starts   Wins    2nd    3rd       Stakes $NZ

 

Lot 429     800K    Fastnet Rock  -Il Quello Veloce        IL PIU VELOCE  .                         .............................................................

Lot 340     600K    Fastnet Rock  -Dance On By            ROCK AND SWING                    7             1 -     0         -1             56,442

Lot 251    500K     High Chaparall - Alma Star              NOT TO BE CAUGHT                  8             0 -     3      -  0             29,600

Lot 37      470K     More Than Ready - Lovetrista         ATTENBOROUGH                       5              1   -   0     -   0            21,000

Lot 36      450K    Cape Blanco  - Love Diamonds        DIAMAINT                                     ............................................................

Lot 436    425K    Savabeel  - Invernoray                      ...................                                  ............................................................

Lot 287    420K     So You Think-- Better Alternative      ANGELUCCI                               4              0    -   1-      0                3,563                                                               

Lot 47      400K     O'Reilly  - Make A Wish                   TWENTY ONE TIMES                   4             1   -    1      -0                8,600

Lot 58      400K     Snitzel - Mini Tales                           EPIC TALE                                    4             0   -     0   -   1                  875

Lot 85      400K    Fastnet Rock - Myrrh                        HEROIC VALOUR                        10            4     -   3   -   2           300,650

Lot 216     400K   Denman - Tsukioka                          REGENCY BO BO                          9            2     -  5    -  2            429,517

Lot 429     400K   Fastnet Rock - Allez France             ROCKET GO                                ................................................................

Lot 367     400K   Savabeel  - Eloa                              REACH FOR HEAVEN                  7                1   -     1   -    2          50,843

Lot 374     400K    O'Reilly  -  Etoile Du Nord               LIBRETTO                                    ....................................................................

Lot 435     More Than Ready -- Insouciant                   PARIS                                           2                   0    -    1   -    0        3,241             

                                                                                              

                                                                                                                                           Total                                         $904,331

 

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Interesting indeed! Clearly, one requires large 'kahunas' and even bigger pockets to buy at the top end of the market...Success is definitely elusive - for both the pedigree buff and the industry experts !!!!

"Great game, this racing game!!!!" Keith Haub. :) 

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15 of the top priced lots brought by leader buyer Premier Yearling Sale 2015

results as at 03/05/2017

Lot            Price        Sire            Dam                                   NAME                                Starts      Wins    2nd     3rd              Stakes NZ$

Lot  429    800K      Fastnet Rock - Il Quello Veloce          IL PIU VELOCE                  0                                                         ...................

Lot 58       400K      Snitzel - Mini Tales                               EPIC TALE                          4              0    -     0    -     1                             875

Lot 85      400K       Fastnet Rock - Myrrh                          HEROIC VALOUR              10             4   -      3    -     2                      300,650

Lot 95      220K       Fastnet Rock - Ocean Pearl              OCEAN ROCK                     2              0    -     0    -     1                          1,050

Lot  31     200K       Savabeel  - Lego                                 LUCY WYLDSTYLE           1             0      -    0    -     0                           .........

Lot 252    160K       Savabeel  - Almaviva                          BEAUMARCHAIS               9              2     -    1    -     1                         62,325

Lot 325     150K      Smart Missile  - Corporate                  CORPORATE MISSILE     9              1     -     0   -     1                           6,275

Lot 6         150K      Savabeel  -  Kay's Awake                   WIDE AWAKE                     6             1     -      1   -     1                          8,700

Lot 182     120K      O'Reilly  - Starbelly                               O'REILLY STAR                  0                                     .                             ...........

 Lot 258    120K      Darci Brahma - Amaryllis                    JUSTICE LIGHT                  0                                                                   ...........

Lot 59       100K      Zacinto - Miss Avalon                          ZAVISTIC                             6             0   -       0   -     5                            4,800

Lot 171     100K      No Excuse Needed - Singing Star    WINEHOUSE                      0                                                                     ..........

Lot 355       80K       Darci Brahma - Distinctive Lass        DISTINCTIVE DARCI         0                                                                     ...........

Lot 186       80K       Savabeel  - Steal                                 STOLEN LOVE                  5             0     -     0   -      1                             1,525

Lot 269       80K       RipVan Winkle - Bak Da Princess     HONOR                               0                                                                     ............

 

Total out lay  $ 3,180 Million                                                                                                                                       Total   stakes    $386,200         

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15 of the top priced lots sold by the leading vendor Premier Yearling Sale 2015

Lot             Price          Sire                   Dam                               NAME                              Starts       Wins     2nd    3rd  Stakes  NZ$

Lot 340      600K      Fastnet Rock - Dance On By          ROCK AND SWING                   7            1    -      0   -   1           56,442

Lot 374     400K      O'Reilly  - Etoile Du Nord                   LIBRETTO                                 0             .....................

Lot 47       400K       O'Reilly  - Make A Wish                   TWENTY ONE TIMES              4            1    -     1    -   0              8,600

Lot 123     340K      O'Reilly  -  Pretty                                DAHOOIL                                    4            1    -     1   -    0            12,659

Lot 78       300K      Savabeel - More To Love                SAVE THE DATE                       5            1    -     1    -   1               8,425

Lot 38       300K      Pins  -  Lowland                                CROSS STITCH                         7           1     -    1    -   2              47,491   

Lot  88      260K      Savabeel  -  Natural Rhythm          SHIELD WALL                             6           1     -    1     -  2              33,417

Lot 33       260K      O'Reilly  -  Lightning Star                      ................                                 0                                                  .............

Lot 124    220K      Savabeel -  Prickle                           LINCOLN BLUE                         11          3    -    3   -   2               113,350

Lot 16       250K      Savabeel - Kowtow                         FAWN                                            1            0   -     0   -    0              .............

Lot 404    260K      Savabeel  -  Girls On Top                GOLD VELVET                            3            0    -    0   -     0        ...............

Lot 315    230K      Pins  -  Charlotte'srevenge             DORNOCH                                    7           1   -     1   -     2              24,509

Lot 31      200K      Savabeel  -  Lego                           LUCY WYLDSTYLE                     2           0   -     0    -    0                    250

Lot 392    160K      O'Reilly -  Flutter                             SACRED IBIS                                 0            0   -     0    -    0             ............

Lot 128   160K      O'Reilly  -  Promenade                   BOOMERANG                                2            0   -    1     -    0               1,750

 

Total Sales   $4.6 Million                                                                                                                            Total Stakes         $306,893  

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this is the bit that you are interested in Berri

15 Top priced lots            out lay       $ 6.865 Million           stakes won     $ 904,331

Swynfords Selections         '             $  2.745 Million                 '                 $ 401,608

Leading Buyer                     "             $ 3.180  Million                  '                $ 386,200

Leading Vendor                   '             $ 4.600 Million                   '                $  306,893   

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Thanks Swynford.

Very interesting statistics!

Probably better to do it again at the end of their 4yo year.

One must remember that most of the fillies sold will have residual value after they have finished racing and obviously there will be the odd stallion prospect.

The other obvious issue as we know in this game is that one horse can distort the numbers. A bit like Sales numbers, I prefer to look at Median than Average.

You have the leading buyer but would be interesting to compare what some of the leading agents statistics look like. Eg- Bruce Perry, Phil Cataldo, Paul Moroney etc

That is a bit more difficult to get the total picture as some leading agents advise but the purchase does not go under their name.

Another one I find interesting is that making a profit can sometimes be easier when paying a service fee under $10,000 than above it!!

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Thanks Swynford. Good to see you're still playing the game.

I think the real issue relates to the statistical success of stakes winners per selection. As I still don't really understand your philosophy (I don't understand the breeding pattern you are trying to advocate), what interested me is, what ever that is, is your selection theory statistically more successful than any other form of selection.

You have chosen to compare your selection technique with the leading buyer, the leading vendor and yourself. Although interesting, the only reason why the cost would be interesting is that they correlate to a descending order of the highest prices either paid or realised by those other parties when comparing them with you own selections. The actual cost is irrelevant in determining success.

So if I'm right, the stakes winners (performers) are:

Premier top lots

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Sorry people...got posted before I finished....

Thanks Swynford. Good to see you're still playing the game.

I think the real issue relates to the statistical success of stakes winners per selection. As I still don't really understand your philosophy (I don't understand the breeding pattern you are trying to advocate), what interested me is, what ever that is, is your selection theory statistically more successful than any other form of selection.

You have chosen to compare your selection technique with the leading buyer, the leading vendor and yourself. Although interesting, the only reason why the cost would be interesting is that they correlate to a descending order of the highest prices either paid or realised by those other parties when comparing them with you own selections. The actual cost is irrelevant in determining success.

So if I'm right, the stakes winners (performers) are:

Premier top lots             15 lots        1 stakes winners  ...1 Group One winner

Vendor Top Lots            15 lots       1 stakes winner  .....1 Group 3 winner

Swynford                        15 lots      1 stakes winner  ......1 Group One winner

So as this stage no advantage. We'll wait one more year and then we'll do another tally up because there are a number of horses that may make it as older horses. Incidentally I also have a list of 15. These have been given to a lawyer and sealed. The only reason why I cannot publish who they are is because we were privy to being able to put some technology on them as yearlings and I was not allowed to inform anyone of the results until they had finished their 4 year old career, There are a number of very legitimate reasons for this.

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