RaceCafe..#1...Tipsters Thread.... Share Your Fancies For Fun...Lets See Who The Best Tipsters Here Are.

JackSprat

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Everything posted by JackSprat

  1. Are you a consultant to the handicapping/rating system policy makers Pickel? You seem to be on the same distorted wave length. A genuine "ratings system" is a very simple system to create and even simpler to implement. Hell I have first year programmers in my employ that could throw it together in a day! It's the continuous adding of artificial "bandaid measures" and special classes for the increasing numbers of bottom dwellers being created by an obviously flawed system that are digging a deeper hole for the industry by the day. Judging by the disaster that the ratings system has delivered I doubt the creators even did any modelling to forecast it's future impact. The ballooning 40-45 rating logjam was entirely foreseeable, as is the certainty that it will only get worse. Adding "new bottoms" for special classes will serve no purpose other than to move the "balloon" to a new disaster spot. Actually come to think of it, I doubt that the "brains behind the ratings system" have the slightest idea what "modelling to forecast future impact" is. Until the likes of you and the powers that be understand that it's the maths behind the system that are the REAL problem, the ongoing "shuffling of the chairs on the Titanic" will continue ... and be guaranteed to fail.
  2. Pure genius! ... and in 12 months time when EXACTLY the same situation occurs with a log jam in the 35-40 rating range we drop the bottom to 30. And the 12 months after that when exactly situation occurs with a log jam in the 30-35 rating range we drop the bottom to .... It's NCEA Level 1 maths guys! The problem isn't anything to do with what the top or bottom ratings are! The problem is that the points matrix is skewed way too far in favour of horses going down the ratings as compared to those going up the ratings. Pretty soon anything 55 points and above will be considered FFA class as everyone else has either been driven below that mark, or sold overseas because they rose above it and couldn't compete in the "new FFA class"! Catering to the weakest of the bottom dwellers (40-45 ratings) has now become an obsession because of a ratings system that's mathematically guaranteed to send everything except the very best to the bottom! A 10yo kid could grasp this concept but the industry is run by people who don't understand the basic maths behind it ... and encouraged by trainers to "dig the hole deeper"! It's no wonder the game is in a death spiral!
  3. This proposed rule amendment is not only a huge step forward for the industry, but if passed into the rule book, will see a stable or two come back to the field!
  4. Living proof that not all the tools are in the garden shed!
  5. Mate of mine who clocks everything in the deep south tells me his personal last 2400m (post to post) was 2.51.8 - well inside the NZ record - and he was held up through the middle half by horses struggling to keep up! Not a bad pipe opener!
  6. So junior stable employees are allowed to be interviewed on TV about their stable runners and likely scenarios, but an experienced trainer/driver is censured for the same thing? And people wonder why the leadership of the industry is considered a joke. Their decisions would make more sense if Monty Python wrote the script for them!
  7. Amazing run first up today. Smashed the clock ... 2.55.9 for the 2400 - Only 1.5 sec outside the NZ record after having no favours in the run. 53.2 last half (25.6 from the 800 to the 400, followed by 27.6 last quarter) No workouts or trials to sharpen him so he can only get better!
  8. I guess if there's a chemical solution for a problem you'd know about it. Never had the need to research the subject myself, but each to their own!
  9. Ye gods ... I hope you are deliberately playing dumb!
  10. The Fixer would have been "gone" at the 400 trying to do what Tiger Tara did last year. Absolute crying shame to the see the Tiger beaten last time. Even allowing for the fact that it would see the Cup crossing the Tasman, it would be great to see him go one better this year. He deserves to win one to cap off his career.
  11. There's good and bad, competent and incompetent, ethical and unethical members of every profession ... the veterinary profession is no different. To suggest otherwise is either extremely naive or extremely self serving. If your regular tirades are anything to go by, everyone on the planet, with the obvious exception of your good self, is a complete fuckwit. I believe the odds against such a situation actually being true are in the vicinity of 7 billion to one! No doubt you're around about the mark with much of the stuff you post, but your god like opinion of your own capabilities is somewhat misplaced.
  12. Having dealt with many many vets with varying levels of competence and integrity over a very long period, and in a range of jurisdictions, I can say with great confidence that they have a lot in common with politicians in that many (if not most), will say or do whatever makes them and their bank account look best, without getting them de-registered. Everything is legal until it isn't. Great move by the Australian authorities. New Zealand's harness racing leadership will be an even bigger laughing stock than they already are if they don't follow suit.
  13. Thanks for the offer, but not really my line of business. I'm more the employer than the employee. If you were a twenty something tech whiz I might even find a spot for you!
  14. Don't know that I've really helped them make a fortune, but I have sent some coin their way via training fees (well Mark's way) in the past. PS. We all know M House is never wrong!
  15. Things you got right: "Had a bit of a run once" - for a decade or so ... last century! Things you got wrong: Everything else. No poor performance then or since. The dawn of the internet provided opportunities too great to ignore late last century and the thought of those 16 hour days have kept the horses at bay every since. A little petty cash thrown at a few syndicates over the years has been my only interest in the game ever since. Despite winning plenty of races, getting out of the game was the greatest financial decision I ever made. I know this to be true as my significant other has told me so ... at least once a week for the past 20 odd years! The mirrors are fine, or were last time I looked, and haven't had eyes on a weasel for ages. The weather forecast for Palmerston North for the next 12 months is Fine with a bit of sunshine!
  16. You're dead right, champions can pop up anywhere. Shartin is living proof of that. Just don't hold your breath for her to leave anything in the same league!
  17. How much are we talking here? I may be interested in handing myself in!
  18. Technical mumbo jumbo that translates to "pain killing anti-inflammatory"
  19. He's quite famous in nursery rhyme circles! Jack Sprat could eat no fat.His wife could eat no lean.But, together both,They licked the platter clean.
  20. You're seriously going to compare a massage to blood spinning? If you can't beat 'em then join 'em is alive and well in the north by the looks of it!
  21. In the grand scheme of things Shartin's breeding is ordinary at best, and in no way correlates with her racetrack ability. Her lack of breeding obviously hasn't stopped her being a standout freakish performer in her own right. But history tells us she won't be able to pass that freakishness on to her progeny. She's a genetic anomaly, and anomalies don't replicate themselves, no matter how much you wish it to be so Iraklis!
  22. 7 days is better than the current 1 day regulation, but it should be a mandatory stand-down period of 14-28 days following treatment. Remember the "only reason" these horses are being treated is because they're "injured" and unfit to race without this supposedly "non-performance enhancing" treatment. To be back to peak fitness 1 day later always seemed to be nothing short of a miracle ... imagine how good they'll be with an extra 6 days to recuperate! In other news, apparently Mickey Mouse is frantically organising extra stabling with horses soon needing to be being shipped in 8 days before races instead of the day before as in the past!
  23. How about these figures from last weeks racing in Tasmania where they had 2 meeting - Hobart on Friday night and Launceston on Sunday. On the Friday night they had a 7 race card with a total of 71 horses engaged - including 40 from the Ben Yole stable On Sunday they had an 8 race card with a total of 87 horses engaged - including 52 from the Ben Yole stable A total of 158 raced in Tasmania for the week - 92 of them from one stable! Kudos to the stable for getting such huge numbers on to the track for each race, especially this one ... the entire 12 horse field!
  24. Leader to leader last mile was 2.03.4 and she had to be somewhere between 80m - 100m from the leader at the mile. Not only caught them but went around them 4 and 5 wide and won under a hold. You're a master of understatement Value Bell to only label that "impressive"! It had to be seen to be believed!
  25. I don't doubt the ability or good intentions of the participants, but for now their "product" is only half built, and being showcased at one of our major tracks is not an option. The club need to take a fair chunk of responsibility for the shambles that unfolded with the poorly thought out conditions of eligibility. By all means let them "do it poorly at first", but please not on the big stage and definitely not offered up as an example of what we expect people to bet on. They need to go back and do some beta testing at the trials before re-releasing their program to the public!