chiknsmack

I went to Karaka for the first time in 2017 and my pick of the sale of the horses I saw was Avantage. I went again in 2019 and my pick of the sale was Just Ben. It seems I have an eye for a good horse, but also an eye for a not-so-good horse. Unfortunately I don't know which eye is which.

Because she's first up today, so how she has gone first up in the past is relevant.

When it rained it got muddy and took time to recover. Not good enough when we want 40 meetings per year at "Headquarters" from September to April. This new track though can take a foot of rain in ten minutes and be a good 4 half an hour later. Water just runs clean through it. It definitely doesn't get muddy (or slippery).

When you click on racing then click on Harness, it scrolls on its own so the domestic harness meetings are at the top. Gallops is more popular than harness, so it makes sense for it to be at the top. Harness is doing well to stay above greyhounds, tbh. I know at least one Aussie bookie has/had six buttons at the top of their page; one "Aust/NZ" and one "Intl" for each code. Under that setup you could click the Aust/NZ Harness button and unclick the rest and all you'd see when you clicked racing would be Aust/NZ Harness. Maybe Entain will have that when they update the website.

Aussies traditionally don't bet the place; it's one of the big differences in punting culture between us and them. So I'm not surprised Entain don't see place odds as important. Nelli's right though; complain enough (via the right avenues, not here) and maybe if there's enough demand for place odds they'll change it.

Greyhound racing is the bulwark for the horse codes. Anyone who doesn't see that a ban on greyhound racing is a stepping stone to a ban on harness, then gallops, then farming, then pets, is an idiot. If you support anything towards the end of that list, you must stand up for those things towards the start of it under the banner of "Don't tell us what to to do and we won't tell you what to do".

He actually won back last autumn in Queensland, beating Kalapour. And this was his second win this prep; first up over 2000m he beat Bois d'Argent and Military Mission at listed level, then yesterday won again over 2000m with a brave fightback after being clearly headed halfway down. He's 50/1 for the Queen Elizabeth in a fortnight (Via Sistina is fave at evens), but with yesterday's Australian Cup runner-up Pride of Jenni likely to be there with her tearaway running style he's unlikely to get to dominate from the front as he seems to like. He's one of my faves at the moment though; I usually back him as I like frontrunners and he's done me well this prep.

It's better to regret selling than regret not selling. Seven figures for a gelding when you own the dam and most of the siblings is an easy sell. Even if (IF) he comes out and wins the Caulfield Guineas and the Kiwi next year you'd still struggle to be mad that you sold.

Handicappers don't handicap on a race-by-race basis anymore, so anyone could've told you the weight spread in advance (top weight gets 60 or 61kg, others get 0.5kg allowance per rating point, mares get an extra 2kg, minimum 54kg). TN could argue that The Good Shepherd's rating is a few points light, but at a glance I don't see it.

They've both had fewer than 40 runners, they've both had Gr. 1 winners. Any judgement right now is premature.

That barrier is a positive for her. Much better than being drawn in the inside half of the field. Leggy is right that on an overall basis "barriers don't matter" to a statistically-significant degree, especially when you consider that most punters think they do and so overbet horses drawn inside and underbet horses drawn outside. But on a case-by-case basis they matter; in this case the wide draw with only one runner outside her means Imperatriz should get a clean start without being hindered, and should land off the fence where she can come wide and round the leaders up late.

@chevy86 (You might need to right-click the link and open it in a new tab.)

Also interesting that the results there say "WitzEnd/GrailSeeker/MoetDown All Top8" when the market I bet into (and the market in my resulted bets) say Top 10. Might be worth just ignoring powerplays entirely (if it wasn't already).

I checked the Powerplays which I usually forget to do and saw Witz End+Moet Down+Grail Seeker all Top 10 at $1.80. I figured Grail Seeker could beat four home and the other two were my top two picks, so that looked massive overs to me. Glad I didn't unload quite as large as I'd considered.

Are Pick 6 and Place 6 available with Aussie (particularly other Entain) corps? I never hear mention of P6s in Aussie broadcasts, but they all mention the quaddies. It could be as simple as "We're replacing the current betting software with a TAB-coloured version what we use for Lads and Neds" and it'll have upsides (fewer crashes, quicker acceptance of sports bets) which outweigh the downsides (No P6, Pl6, FO F4). Place 6 was a great bet type, but if the stock Entain software doesn't allow it and it doesn't make financial sense to upgrade the software to add it then it has to go.